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Bush Approval 2nd Lowest at Midterm

Topics: George Bush

ApprovalAtMidtermsmall.png

The last Gallup pre-election poll puts approval of President Bush at 38% (and disapproval at 56%.) As the figure above shows, this is the second lowest approval at midterm of any president since World War II. In previous years, such low approval would be expected to lead to major losses in congress. Whether due to redistricting or something else, few forecasts anticipate losses of the magnitude such an approval rating alone would suggest. Current estimates range from the 20s to the high 30s, with a few above and (even fewer) below that range.

Back in May I wrote about approval and midterms and estimated a forecast of approval in the last pre-election poll based on approval in May. The plot below is from that post, with the actual approval rating added. Not bad for predicting the future more than 5 months out.

PreElectionApprovalByMayApprovalsmall.png

 

Comments
Joe Y:

I think the most common error that people--especially Democrats--tend to make is to assume that anti-Bush means pro-Democrat. Many of those disapproving of Bush will be doing so for reasons for which they would disapprove even more fervently of the Democrats, such as believing that Bush has let taxes and spending be too high, not explaining and defending the Iraq war strategy aggressively enough, or compromising too readily on education policy, all of which I do, though I will still vote straight Republican.

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Ken:

In contrast, many people who feel, as you say you do, "that Bush has let taxes and spending be too high, not explaining and defending the Iraq war strategy aggressively enough, or compromising too readily on education policy" are quite likely to either not vote straight Republican or (more likely) vote with their feet.

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Joe Y:

Well, Ken, you sure are right about that. There was certainly that critical mass of people who voted Libertarian or stayed away or even went Dem out of their dissatisfaction with the Republicans shortcomings.

And good for them.They've gotten what they wanted. And now the Democrats are going to give it to them, good and hard.

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