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Bush Approval: Four New Polls, Trend at 38%

Topics: 2006 , George Bush , The 2006 Race

currentBushApproval20061008small.png

Four new polls find approval of President Bush has declined substantially since the end of September, following revelations of "overly friendly" email and IM messages from Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) to pre-adult House pages. All these polls were completed before North Korea tested what appears to have been a nuclear weapon on October 9.

The ABC/Washington Post poll, taken 10/5-8/06 finds approval at 39%, disapproval at 60%. CNN/ORC's poll from 10/6-8/06 also has approval at 39% with disapproval at 56%. The Gallup/USAToday poll (10/6-8/06) found approval at 37%, disapproval 59%. The CBS/New York Times poll (10/5-8/06) comes in low among this group, with approval at 34% and disapproval at 60%.

With these new polls, the approval trend estimate has fallen sharply to 38.1%, a bit more than a 2 point drop since mid-September.

Each of the polls shows a decline from the same poll's previous reading. These are too crowded to plot all four in one image, so here they are by poll.

FourPanelApproval20061008.0small.png

The CBS/NYT poll is quite low compared to the others, raising the possibility that it is another outlier, as was the Newsweek poll over the weekend. The graph below checks this, and finds that CBS/NYT is NOT an outlier, despite it's low reading of approval. With the new data, Newsweek remains an outlier, though less extreme than before the trend was revised by the four new polls.

currentBushRESIDUALS20061008small.png

The conclusion is obvious. Approval has now given up most of the gains made in the August-September rally.

Note: This entry is cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

 

Comments
Craig VanGrasstek:

I find the scattergrams and other charts you use to be very clean and readable. What software do you use to generate them?

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DemFromCT:

Aha! I thought the other day this would be a steep decline. Is it a record steep decline?

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Aaron:

The Republican Party is no longer a viable political party in America. Within the next generation we will have returned to the days of FDR, when Democrats routinely had 300+ seats in the House and 70+ seats in the Senate. There will be no real opposition party, and a progressive agenda will finally be able to be enacted, bringing the United States into the 21st century with the rest of the industrialized world.

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Craig-- I use R, an open source statistical programming system. See the links at my other site http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com for details.

DemFromCT-- it is very sharp-- can't say yet if it is a record. STILL, we need some more data before the rate of decline will be very precisely measured. The estimate will change as more polls are added and will sharpen with the additional data.

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What explains the difference between the RasmussenReports daily tracking polls concerning the President's favorable numbers and those reflected in the recent polls you discussed?

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Tlaloc:

You use open source software. Now I have one more reason to love this site. Booyah.

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