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Bush Approval: LA Times 42%; NBC/WSJ 34%

Topics: George Bush

BushApproval2ndTerm20061211small.png

Two more new polls. The LA Times (12/8-11) has approval at 42%, disapproval at 56% while the NBC/WSJ poll (12/8-11) puts approval at 34% and disapproval at 61%. The LA Times result is quite an outlier compared to other polling, and helps to raise my trend estimate to 34.5%.

About 90% of polls fall within +/- 4.4% of the trend estimate, and 95% fall within +/- 5.3%. At 7.5 points above the trend line, the LA Times poll is very far from what we would expect. If the LA Times poll were excluded from the trend calculation, the estimate would be 34.0%. Given the distance the LA Times is from the trend estimate, the 34% estimate is more plausible than 34.5%.

UPDATE: For a look at the LA Times trend in comparison to my trend estimate see the comparison chart from our Presidential approval page.

Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

 

Comments
arbogast:

LA Times is a conservative, right-wing rag. Think Fox.

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proud southern democrat:

Do you factor the dates over which the polls are conducted when calculating the trend estimate? I suppose this wouldn't matter that much, but for instance the Pew poll which just came out was conducted Dec 6-10, while the LA Times poll released 24 hours earlier was conducted Dec. 8-11. Just curious about your methodology.

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Proud-- Yes, the dates are part of the calculation. That gives a little more weight to a poll conducted alone without others nearby, especially at the end of the series. In this case, though, there are other polls close by so that helps reduce the effect of an outlier.

The LA Times/Bloomberg polls have averaged a +1.63% house effect in approval in 2005 and 2006-- that is they are that much above the mean poll in Bush approval. So even taking out that, the poll still stands well above the trend estimate.

Also, arbogast may be right on the editorial pages but Fox and LA Times are not extremely high on house effects. Fox is only +0.64. See the table part way down in this post at PoliticalArithmetik:

http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2006/08/bush-approval-harris-87-at-34.html

Charles

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