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CA: 2010 Gov (Capitol Weekly 10/26-28)


Capitol Weekly / Probolsky Research (R)
10/26-28/09; 750 likely 2010 primary election voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Probolsky research release)

California

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
37% Whitman, 15% Campbell, 6% Poizner (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
46% Brown, 19% Newsom (chart)

 

Comments
platanoman:

Brown should win this one. If Californian are stupid enough to vote for a women who never voted, then they should succeed from the union. lol

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RaleighNC:

Newsome has dropped out of the race.

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Rasmus Pianowski:

'If Californian are stupid enough .... they should succeed from the union. lol'.

Thanks for this brilliant analysis, platanoman.

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RAG2:

No general-election match-ups?

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Farleftandproud:

Brown Will win this race because Whitman has no government experience and thinks she can pull of the same tricks as Schwartzneggar, but she ain't no Arnold.

California's GOP operatives will try go nominate someone more conservative than Whitman. As they say about PA you have Phlly and Pittsburgh and Alabama in between; California you have LA, San Francisco areas and Indiana everywhere else. Orange County is still the redest zone in a blue state.

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RAG2:

Arnold Schwartzneggar is the future of the GOP--albeit not the near future. If Reps are to win minorities and younger voters--who represent an increasing share of the electorate, turn out in increasing numbers (at least for prez), and vote increasingly Democratic--they got to abandon this die-hard committment to free-market fundamentalism (as opposed to a balance mix of government and markets) and religious fandamentalism (as opposed to "live and let live"--which is actually the TRUE conservative position).

D'ya see their HC plan? Only 3 million (out of 47 million uninsured) covered, and no ban on insurers deny people with pre-existing conditions or dropping sick people! By contrast, the Dem plan covers 36 million (reducing the % uninsured to 4% by 2019), and outlaws the above discrimination in 2013. And when revenues are factored in, the Rep plan save only 70 billion over 10 years, compared to 104 billion in the Dem plans. (Sure, the latter is paid for by a surcharge on millionaires, but most voters don't mind soaking the super-wealthy.)

Simply put, free-market fundamentalism WILL NOT fix our decaying HC system--unless you don't think being able to get health insurance, regarless of medical history or income, should be a basic American right. And religious fundamentalism won't win over an increasingly tolerant electorate. If the GOP's smart, they'll go with Arnold and not Sarah [Palin].

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