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CA: 2010 Gov, Sen (LATimes/USC 5/19-26)

Topics: California , Governor , Poll , Senate

LA Times / USC / Greenberg Quinlin Rosner (D) / American Viewpoint (R)
5/19-26/10; 1,506 registered voters, 2.6% margin of error
521 likely Republican primary voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Greenberg Release)

California

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
53% Whitman, 29% Poizner (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
44% Brown, 38% Whitman (chart)
45% Brown, 31% Poizner (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
38% Fiorina, 23% Campbell, 16% DeVore (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
44% Boxer, 38% Fiorina (chart)
45% Campbell, 38% Boxer (chart)
46% Boxer, 36% DeVore (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 59 / 36 (chart)
Barbara Boxer: 40 / 44 (chart)
Jerry Brown: 38 / 33
Chuck DeVore: 10 / 9
Carly Fiorina: 22 / 20
Meg Whitman: 32 / 37
Steve Poizner: 20 / 40
Tom Campbell: 19 / 14
Pete Wilson: 29 / 33

 

Comments
pion:

Remember the survey from PPP 5/21-23/10 with 921 registered voters:

47% Boxer (D), 40% Campbell (R) (chart)
46% Boxer (D), 40% DeVore (R) (chart)
45% Boxer (D), 42% Fiorina (R) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 49 / 42 (chart)
Sen. Feinstein: 41 / 41 (chart)
Sen. Boxer: 37 / 46 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Tom Campbell: 15 / 18
Chuck DeVore: 10 / 14
Carly Fiorina: 22 / 30

The PPP survey was performed by automated phone during the same period, and showed a far worse A/D for Obama than this current survey by Greenberg. The 59/36 A/D for Obama makes sense and the comparison with PPP again points to a Republican bias for automated phone surveys.

Unfortunately for Democrats, this survey is still bad news:

1) It suggests that Campbell can beat Boxer thanks to some Obama voters who would choose Campbell over Boxer; however, Campbell does not seem likely to beat Fiorina, so this is not a serious threat to Boxer.

2) The same pollster showed in March A/D numbers of 46/37 for Boxer; her A/D appear to have cratered.

It should be mentioned that cell phone users were not contacted for this survey resulting in a possible Republican bias. I tend to believe the PPIC poll of May 9-16 is more accurate because it included cell phone participants.

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Harry Enten:

Actually, the survey did include cell phone respondents http://gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2447

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Farleftandproud:

I hope the GOP primary will happen soon before the GOP faithful in CA get wind of this poll. I agree that FIorina would be a sure loser against Boxer, but would I bet $300 on Boxer against Campbell? No way. He would easily be another Scott Brown with a 6 year term.

I could not nor would want to see a state as blue as CA be represented by any Republican. Hopefully the GOP will do in the primary what they do in presidential elections, by rejecting the more electable candidate for the more extreme candidate. That strategy works for Dems.

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pion:

Thanks Harry! This is an argument for a big cell phone bias since this Greenberg/American Viewpoint poll and the PPP poll both sampled registered voter at the same time in the same state. Of course, the survey questions and their order can have a bigger impact as well; the spread between these two polls can be taken as an upper limit on the cell phone bias. Both surveys asked respondents to self-identify as either Liberal/moderate/conservative the results are below.

Greenberg/American Viewpoint:

Liberal 24
Moderate 39
Conservative 31
(Don't know)4
(Refuse)2

PPP

Liberal 23%
Moderate 43%
Conservative 34%

Similar registered voter profiles for both polls.

FarLeft:

"...rejecting the more electable candidate for the more extreme candidate. That strategy works for Dems."

CA Republicans have marginalized themselves for many election cycles, and it doesn't look like they are about to re-evaluate their tactics.

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melvin:

THE GOP IS TALKING ABOUT PASSING A TOUGH LAW ON IMMIGRATION IN 2013 IF THEY GET BACK THE WHITEHOUSE IN CONGRESS,ALSO I HEAR THEIR GOING TO TRY IN PASS A LAW WHICH ONLY NATURAL BORN CITIZENS CAN VOTE IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS,IF THIS LAW PASSES THE DEMOCRATS CAN FORGET ABOUT CONTROLLING THE CONGRESS FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

____________________

melvin:

THE GOP IS TALKING ABOUT PASSING A TOUGH LAW ON IMMIGRATION IN 2013 IF THEY GET BACK THE WHITEHOUSE IN CONGRESS,ALSO I HEAR THEIR GOING TO TRY IN PASS A LAW WHICH ONLY NATURAL BORN CITIZENS CAN VOTE IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS,IF THIS LAW PASSES THE DEMOCRATS CAN FORGET ABOUT CONTROLLING THE CONGRESS FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Over my dead body will they get away with that, and I don't think our latino population or our more compassionate white folks will let them get away with that. That is something that George W. and his brother wouldn't have dared to do. That would cause too much contreversy and cost way too much money. The GOP would look like hypocrites when they attacked Obama on his over spending.

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TeaPartyRules:

LOL, Bye Bye Boxer.

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tjampel:

@TeaPartyRules:

"LOL, Bye Bye Boxer."

Are we both reading the same poll? Fiorina is way ahead of Campbell in the primary (so she'll probably be the nominee) and is 6 points down in the general against Boxer. I guess this proves (to you) that it's bye bye Boxer because she's been able to hold a steady 6 point lead since March. Irrefutable logic!

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jamesia:

Boxer will win regardless of who the nominee is. Clearly it'll be Fiorina though. Boxer has so much money and so much structure behind her.

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