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CA: 2010 Republican Primaries (Capitol Weekly 4/10-13)

Topics: California , poll

Capitol Weekly / Probolsky Research (R)
4/10-13/10; 751 likely Republican primary voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Capitol Weekly release)

California

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
47% Whitman, 19% Poizner (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
31% Campbell, 17% Fiorina, 14% DeVore (chart)

 

Comments
Rockym92:

Have things really changed this much in this race? I doubt it.

Campbell has a better shot of beating Boxer than Fiorina does, so hopefully this poll is somewhat close to correct.

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Sean Murphy:

Here's a poll from PPP that can be posted.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_422.pdf

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jmartin4s:

Campbell will win the primary in a landslide. The idea of Boxer being unseated will be such a turn on to republicans in California that many conservative Rs will hold their nose along with most moderates and vote for Campbell. Expect to see Campbell's lead in the primary continue to widen.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

jmartin4s:
Campbell will win the primary in a landslide. The idea of Boxer being unseated will be such a turn on to republicans in California that many conservative Rs will hold their nose along with most moderates and vote for Campbell. Expect to see Campbell's lead in the primary continue to widen.
===

LMAO, well you're thinking what I'm thinking. A. B. B., anyone but Boxer! Plus Campbell is actually a genius.

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Xenobion:

I don't know what part of Cali you're from but Boxer is not particularly unpopular in the state. Campbell isn't going to win unless its a soup contest.

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jmartin4s:

X-I never said Boxer wouldn't win, I said "the IDEA" of Boxer being unseated. Those are two very different things so you should pay attention to that. Campbell is the only one that polls show even has the possibility of unseating her.
I actualy have Boxer favored to win 50% to 47%. But Campbell is the only one that could make a race out of this and the rabid republican base who loathes Boxer in California is very aware of that. I expect Campbell to win the primary with 55%+. Carly Fiorina is like the Steve Pagliuca of California, I would not be surprised if she came in last. In addition, I expect Whitman to beat Jerry Brown 51 to 47. BTW Westwood, Im not thinking at all what your thinking, Boxer is actually one of my favorite senators but yes Campbell is extremely smart.

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kariq:

I'm really disappointed that Fiorina is trailing. I was hoping for more demon sheep ads in the general election.

If the Republicans do nominate Campbell it will be the most pragmatic thing they've done in years in California, though I don't know if that's a factor in the thinking of most Republicans. Certainly Campbell has a better chance of beating Boxer than any other candidate the GOP has ever run against her.

But Whitman, jmartin? I don't know - first she's going to have to prove she can handle a press conference. If she can't do that, even Jerry Brown will be able to hand her her head come November.

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jmartin4s:

Whitman will win because Jerry Brown has done zero campaigning and Whitman has dominated the airwaves for months and months and months. Its one of those situations where the damage has already set in. If you look at the Field polls, Jerry Brown was up by double digits among independents originally in November and then in March he trailing by a huge margin in the same electorate. Jerry Brown is hemorrhaging independents and once a candidate starts hemorrhaging independents its pretty hard to stop. I have learned this from candidates such as Jim Bunning, George Allen, Elizabeth Dole, and Martha Coakley. His name recognition will help him make up some ground but I have major doubts about whether it will be enough to win this race. In terms of Whitman not being able to handle a press conference I'm sure she has bought the best consults that money can buy to work on this issue with her. Jerry Brown is not a lost cause yet but if I had to go with my gut on this one I'd say Whitman.

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