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CA: 2010 Sen. Gov (PPIC 1/12-19)

Topics: poll

Public Policy Institute of California
1/12-19/10; 2,001 adults, 2% margin of error
1,616 registered voters, 2.5% margin of error
1,223 likely voters, 3% margin of error
425 likely Republican primary voters, 5% margin of error
(PPIC release)

California

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
41% Whitman, 11% Poizner (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
44% Brown, 29% Poizner (chart)
41% Brown, 36% Whitman (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary (trends)
27% Campbell, 16% Fiorina, 8% DeVore

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
45% Boxer, 41% Campbell
47% Boxer, 39% DeVore (chart)
48% Boxer, 40% Fiorina (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Schwarzenegger: 30 / 60 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 61 / 34 (chart)
Sen. Feinstein: 50 / 41 (chart)
Sen. Boxer: 49 / 44 (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Brown is a good candidate, but is he up to being governor of CA considering he is in his 70's? Being governor and being senator take much different levels of energy; The candidate for the GOP in delaware is 72 and you have senator BYrd at 92 years old having his sleep disrupted to make a healthcare vote twice in the middle of the night, that will never happen.

I don't think against Whitman, Brown will lose, but I am sure she will make his age a factor.

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Farleftandproud:

It would be highly unlikely that Boxer would lose. THe Bay area voters, hispanic voters and black voters are numerous enough that even if Boxer loses the white vote by 12 points in CA, she can still win.

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Field Marshal:

But will those voters turn out in November in a non-presidential year? That is going to be the question.

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Jason:

Brown and Boxer will both easily win out in Cali!

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StatyPolly:

GO GO Tom Campbell!!

Really glad he entered the race. I would have had to hold my nose hard voting for Fiorina. Not a fan of hers since her HP days.

I lived in Tom's district in mid-90's and voted for him. But I never knew how impressive some of his creds were. Harvard JD AND U of Chicago PHD in Econ. Milton Friedman. Not too shabby..

"Campbell obtained his B.A. and M.A. degrees from the University of Chicago (1973), a J.D. from Harvard Law School (1976) and then a subsequent Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago (1980)[1]. He served as a clerk to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Byron White from 1977 to 1978 and, the year before that, for U.S. Court of Appeals Judge George E. MacKinnon. He returned to the University of Chicago to earn a Ph.D. in economics in 1980. His mentor was Milton Friedman."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Campbell_%28California_politician%29

This could be his year finally.

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Stillow:

If Indy's keep doing what they are doing and drift to the right, thn Campbell has a great shot of taking Boxer down. In MA the indy's broke to Brown 3 to 1...if that happens in Cali its lights out for Boxer. Plus the hispanics in the central valley are becoming more and more conservative. Espeically as they see ther ejobs destoryed by water restrictions to save some 2 inch ish.

I saw a Fresno, CA poll done by hte paper there, Fresno Bee I think 8t was called, anyway, 65 percent of hispanics in that area said they would support a republican candidate going forward. The same poll conducted bythe smae hispanic polling firm 5 years ago had that number at 38 percent........

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Xenobion:

It was Fiornia last month and now Campbell? Who's next to end their political career. Campbell got decimated by Fienstien in 2000. But he's a RINO for sure. You can't be from the South Bay without support for gay marriage.

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Stillow:

X - You Dems are always stuck on social issues....when the people right now are concerned about fiscal policy, jobs, deficits and quit frankly the financial suvival of the country. Dems have a major problem in CA. as I said, the hispanic voters i nthe central velley have done a 180.....the g'ment has killed tens of thousands of farm related jobs which wer eheld almost exclusively by hispanic voters. All to save some silly fish.

With turn out goign to favor the GOP and all Dems being somewhat unpopular right now, this seat is totally up for grabs.

Heheheh, you Dems keep sayign the same thing over and over. VA and NJ, MA.....you ugys just don't get it.

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StatyPolly:

Yeah, X, he is/was? liberal on choice and gay marriage, but whatugonna do? Those votes aren't coming up in Congress any time soon anyway.

Still way better than Boxer. And Fiorina.

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Xenobion:

Don't Ask Don't Tell is on the table and trust me aside from the San Diego Hispanics the majority of that population will still be voting democrat ESPECIALLY on a Senate vote. Hispanics have abandoned the Republican party based off of deportation/immigration issues. The ethnic minority is highly unionized and most just follow an union vote. Fresno has always voted red. If you wanted to perk my interest you'd be talking about any particular change in L.A. County which I don't see so far. CA recognize they have a Republican Gov that although quite liberal has tarnished their party even more in the state. Republicans in the state are some of the most conservative in the Country anyways. I really think they've shot themselves in the foot as far as state control goes in order to keep California's National message under control since so much of what California does ends up being copied by so many other states.

You can go around and say every seat is up for grabs but I expect Boxer to win her seat by 5% at least which may not seem to be alot but California runs so many parties on tickets that typically the Republican candidate gets drown out by Libertarian, Green, Natural Law and Freedom party candidates that chip away a good 5% of the vote collectively.

Anwyays Campbell has no money and Boxer does. California is a VERY expensive state to run in and that's why Fiornia decided to go and run. Campbell is a career politican that I would predict still losing to Fiornia after she starts spending money on the race. I'd frankly be betting Fiornia to win the primary no matter what this poll says. California polls are rediculously hard to predict anyways.

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Stillow:

X - All good points, but its still about JOBS. If hispnaic voters are key in CA, then the trend that is startign i nthe centrl valley where the state has nearly destoryed the farming industry willspread. Hispanics are not stupid, they see how g'ment is killing there abilitty to earn a living. That word will spread. Hispanics in LA may have a brother or a mother who has had there job destoyred by the state protecting this dopy little fish. That willspeak volumes this fall.

Repealing DADT was the only thing I agree with obama on last night, the rest of hte speech was s whiny and patehtic display of leadership.

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Xenobion:

Who cares about jobs if you're in fear that your job is going to be raided by the FEDs on a regular basis? Republican's lost the Hispanic vote by leaps and bounds last election cycle compared to Bush/Kerry because of of this whole POPULISM message that does not resonate in a state where the primary race is not that of the populists. I cannot say this enough but CA is not a populist state and this national message is not resonating in that state. Hispanics are value voters trending conservative and since you say yourself there is no value vote on the table they'll end up going on domestic policy which is typically a center left stance.

Republican's hope in this state is to hope that Hispanics do not care about the Senate race because their vote will drive them out. But CA always puts a referendum vote up that is really important during pivotal races that brings a good number of everyone out.

And a point. The Central Valley Farming industry is still robust and still the west coast bread basket. Altough its a conservative area simply put Fresno/Bakersfield shadow in comparison of SF/LA/ and to some extent SAC.

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Stillow:

X - All groups dropped in support in 2008 which is to be expected since we wer ein recession. Just 5 years ago W carried 44 percent of the hispanic vote.

Hispanic voters are not stupid, htey see what g'ment is doing to their jobs...the trend in the central valley will carry over and hispanic voters will move right.

Dems keep taking voters for granted, it will come to haunt you. Voters are simply not as stupid as you think they are.

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Farleftandproud:

Repealing Don't ask don't tell is an issue that if Obama can't change, the GOP will not to be to blame. It is the US military's outdated laws and homophobia barring people on sexual orientation that are part of the problem. I also believe there is a double standard that removes more gay men from the military than gay women. I don't want to generalize since I have never been in the military, but I think it is harder for men, because masculinity and being macho, is a virtue in the Military. Secretary Gates, A bush appointee is in favor of ending Don't ask don't tell. What I could say to Obama is "Don't tell us you'll repeal don't ask don't tell; repeal it and than tell us you repealed don't ask don't tell".

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Stillow:

by the way, what the hell is going on at msnbc?

for an hour i forgot he was black?

are you libs physically unable to view people beyond the color of their skin....amazing....

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Xenobion:

There is a lot of racisim and xenophobia being directed at Hispanics from conservative groups. They know Democrats won't deport their families. This demographic has increasingly been moving Democratic minus the Cuban population. And that is why a lot of these Southern states are trending blue now like Colorado, New Mexico, ect. The population used to be very far right with conservative Catholic beliefs but domestic issues now trend them to vote Democratic. And unlike the rest of the economy our very subsidized Agriculture industry in which Hispanics dominate is doing quite well and they are having trouble hiring people with papers for seasonal work. So your jobs claim doesn't resonate again.

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Stillow:

X - sorry, we'll just have to disagree on this. There is a trend of hsipanics t othe right, not the left. Its starting in West TX and central CA mostly.

Not sure where your getting the idea they cannot find enough people to hire? Take a trip out near Porterville or northern Bakersfeild where thousand and thousands of workers are looking for work due to the water restrictions placed on those farms by the state. Restrictions not due to drought, but due to a 2 inch fish.

Different states trend different ways like an ebb and flow....unlike you lefties I don't break it down by race.....you guys just seem incapable of looking at people as people...and you have to segment everyoneinto your little intrest groups....quite sad really.

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Xenobion:

Considering California has one of the worst histories of water regulation (see Mono Lake, See the movie China Town) there is a mass control on development and agriculture. Simply because there is no water there. You're from NV you should know Las Vegas shouldn't exist naturally. Well California is largely meeting the cap of its infrastructure and growth based off of limited water supplies. If there's no water, there's no crops. Its barely even an envrionmental issue about a 2 inch fish which frankly noone could prevent from happening even Republicans cause typically everyone enforces the Endangered Species Act.

Anyways I have been out to Bakersfield, Fresno, Soledad, King City, et. al. Farmers are hurting on water rights for sure but the work is there for sure.

And I'm sorry to say it but race trends because even though you want to deny such things exist that certain races are not evenly distributed in all social income brackets. Colorblindness, something you're displaying right now is just the new form for many conservatives to recognize ethnicity and income. Hey! I'm not racist, we've created this real awesome system where noone is ever racist and noone can never be fired because of race, ect. ect.

Well frankly as a person who's worked in government and planning based issues on neighborhoods it doesn't work that way.

It's quite sad you don't recognize that we've created a system that favors certain niche clubs that privilaged whites could get into. I'm not saying that ALWAYS happens, there's certainly the Tiger Woods (before he became unpopular), ect. but Colorblindness is a sad and pathetic approach considering our Country was built off of racism and we have constitutional rights granting to infringed groups of minorities/sexual orientations/gender ect.

Sorry to say it bud but Race exists and its not the only way I break things down.

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Stillow:

X - I view you libs as racist. Matthews for example yesterday saying for an hour he didn't view obama as black....that is racist by haivng low expectations. I guess my brain doesn't compute things that way. Being married to a mexican woman and having bi-racial kids the only place we've ever expereinced that "look" was in the state of Washington....everywhere else we travel I don't think anyone even notices.

I didn't view obama as a black candidate like you libs did, I viewed him as a candidate. Its libs who judge everyone based on race, you create and enforce stereotypes and then blame the country and its system. You lefties have done irreversable damage to the balck community and continue to do it to this day and then point the finger at the other side....your goal is to keep people divided by race and angry at everyone else....to assign blame to someone else for your lack of success.

Thats what libs do, they balme someone successful for your lack of success. You'll find anything to attribute it to, race, age, sex, etc...doesn't matter....liberals thrive on division and actually need it to win elections. But a s a result of your power hungry nature, you have done great damage to this country.

As for the water in CA, its not a lack of water issue. We drove to San Jose a few months ago, went hru bakersfeild, fresno, etc...and the freeway is lined with signs saying "sorry, no water, no jobs" or "G'ment won't let us hire"....must have been 50 signs o nthe way up to san jose. And you could see the farm land fro mthe road and it was all dried up, dead fruit trees, etc....all becaus eof some fish.

Last I heard the state is trying to come up with something, relocating th fish or soemthing, but come on...thats little comfort to those families hurting right now.

Back to the race thing for a minute, we're down in mexico all the time since most of my wifes family live there....and I can tell you they are the nicest people around. Great people, great land and great food. Your average hispanic is no different than your average white......

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LordMike:

Ok, the real question is what happened to Carly Fiorina? Wasn't she supposed to be the runaway favorite for the GOP nomination? Rasmussen a few weeks ago simply presumed she would be the nominee... Did people come to their senses and realize that the person who destroyed one of California's great companies might not be fit for political office?

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