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CA: 2010 Sen, Gov (SurveyUSA 7/8-11)

Topics: California , Governor , Poll , senate

SurveyUSA
7/8-11/10; 614 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

California

2010 Senate
47% Fiorina (R), 45% Boxer (D) (chart)

2010 Governor
46% Whitman (R), 39% Brown (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable / Neutral
Barack Obama: 40 / 38 / 19 (chart) among 840 registered voters (3.5% margin of error)

 

Comments
ndirish11:

Very close favorable numbers for the prez, especially in California.

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TeaPartyRules:

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

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Farleftandproud:

Yeah, right. They have to think I am stupid to believe this poll. I especially don't believe the Obama favorables. Clearly they overpolled Republicans.

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Farleftandproud:

Can anyone find what percentage of these were Dems vs Republicans and Independents?

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SC Guy:

This is actually quite something and it really doesn't seem to be an outlier. Californians voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008, giving Obama a staggering 61% of the vote. The presidency that resulted has certainly not lived up to expectations and Californians are now giving Republicans a good hard look over. It seems that Republican women may fair better in the Golden State than men - the big exception, of course, being Arnold Schwarzenegger.

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Field Marshal:

SC Guy,

I would agree. The WashPo Poll out today shows 6 in 10 people lack faith in Obama to make the right decisions for the country with him being underwater on all issues except military.

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rdw4potus:

Most favorability questions don't give an out for "neutral." Especially in CA, most of that 19% would likely fall in line behind the big O if this were 2012.

I think Whitman really might beat Brown. Maybe she can drag Fiorina with her, but Boxer should end up safe. Fiorina was just in the news regarding her cancer treatments. If her "cancer survivor" bounce is only 4 points, she's in trouble...

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dpearl:

Keep in mind that this survey includes a "neutral" category in asking about favorability toward the President and that 19% of liberals (who gave Obama a 66:13 advantage) chose that category compared with 23% of moderates (who gave Obama a 47:28 advantage) and only 8% of conservatives (who gave Obama a 12:78 disadvantage). Thus, if they were given a forced choice of favorable/unfavorable it is likely that the neutrals would break about 5:3 toward favorable and the comparable totals would be around 52% favorable, 46% unfavorable, 2% no opinion).

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schakj:

This poll is a dud. Look at the age cross-tabs. The poll grossly oversampled Generation X and undersampled Generation Y. Only 19 percent of those sampled were under the under the age of 35. Voter turnout among young people will be low, but I do not think that people in their early 40s will be voting a whole lot more than people in their late 20s to early 30s.

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obamalover:

I want to say this poll is an outlier, but SurveyUSA is one of the best pollsters out there. So this is quite disconcerting. However the Field poll which is equally reliable had Boxer ahead. It is a horse race at this point.

I don't think most people realize Fiorina was forced to resign from HP because she was running the company into the ground. When Californians begin to learn how incompetant she is then that is when you'll see Boxer pull ahead.

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Field Marshal:

And Boxer should be "forced" to resign on Nov 4th because she was, and still is, incompetent in running this country. When Californians learn how badly Boxer has been in congress, people will vote her out. Its going to have little to do with Fiorina.

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Paleo:

You can tell by the governor's numbers, that the senate numbers are an outlier. Both Field and PPP had better numbers for both Boxer and Brown. And Field is the gold standard in California. I won't be worried until that poll were to show similar numbers.

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dpearl:

Schakj: Reading polls is a lot like training cats. Every time you think they are moving the way you want them to, they turn and drift away - not caring that you consider their movement unnatural.

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djneedle83:


The Republican candidate has 39% of the Latino vote in a race where it represents 18% of the electorate. Boxer only gets slightly under 50%, while the rest are going to decide closer to election day. These survey results continue the trend that Latinos are very favorable towards moderate Republicans.

So how are the GOP nutjobs outside California going to resist using crazy rhetoric that may ruin this race for Fiornia? Will Fiornia fight for a Marco Rubio endorsement since he strongly supports SB1070 as a Cuban American?

I'm a liberal Democrat who supports strict immigration, but I totally can see some wingers getting negatively candid about their dislike of the Mexican takeover in Los Angeles County!!

Economic power in relation to GOP--
Over time, as Latinos gain more economic power a large chunk of them will vote Republican. (As they already do in many states--Bush got 40% in 2004). Latinos are way more likely to vote Republican in general if they don't live in a border state, or area near a border state because it signifies an increase in financial ownership.

Especially if they reside in a slightly urban, or suburban areas where the cost of living demonstrates the financial freedom to separate from cities that have close-knit Latino communities. In the end, this means that many Latinos will have natural political inclinations to support GOP candidates.

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jack:

Democrats love Nate Silver and always tell you how smart he is. But if a pollster that Silver ranks as top-3 in the nation has a Democrat in trouble, then all of a sudden this superb pollster is not-so-good after all.

Under the bus goes Survey USA! By the way, Field, Silver's #1 pollster, have these two candidates basically tied also.

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vincent106:

ma'am Boxer needs to be unemployed and quick. She's a complete disgrace and embarassment to the nation.

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Paleo:

"The Republican candidate has 39% of the Latino vote in a race where it represents 18% of the electorate. Boxer only gets slightly under 50%"

Whoa! Now I see what the problem is. In her 2004 re-election, Boxer got 73%.

http://faculty.washington.edu/mbarreto/papers/2004vote.pdf

No way she's not getting over 60% with that group this election.

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Paleo:

"ma'am Boxer needs to be unemployed and quick. She's a complete disgrace and embarassment to the nation."

Boxer's great. We could use a whole lot more like her in the senate.

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Poll Troll:

FLAP you are an idiot. We don't care if you "believe" it or not. check 538...SUSA is one of the most accurate, you liberal swine are screwed.

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K Bill:

Noticed from the SUSA release that of 1,000 voters contacted, 840 were registered to vote, and 614 were deemed likely voters, which is the basis for the top line numbers above (all but Obama approval). Also party id numbers were 42 Dem 33 Rep, vs. 44 Dem 30 Rep per most recent voter registration totals. So appears many more Dem registered voters were tossed in application of likely voter models. Turnout will be key. My sense is this slightly overstates Whitman/Fiorina support, meaning Whitman could indeed beat Brown, who is running an awful campaign, but tough to see Fiorina defeating Boxer. I'm also skeptical of Whitman's ability to drag Fiorina over finish line since CA often sees split in gov/senate races.

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nick283:

You lefties don't get it in california or nationwide. Unemployment is ridiculously high in some parts of the state, yet instead of doing things that would actually promote job growth democrats have focused on a job killing healthcare bill a job killing cap and trade bill and suing arizona all the while adding to our national debt. People gave the democrats a chance after not liking republicans very much. Now they have seen what Obama and company are and they are saying no thanks. Maybe the democrats will ask the black panthers to intimidate voters again, but dont see many ways for them to win...

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Farleftandproud:

"nick283:
You lefties don't get it in california or nationwide. Unemployment is ridiculously high in some parts of the state, yet instead of doing things that would actually promote job growth democrats have focused on a job killing healthcare bill a job killing cap and trade bill and suing arizona all the while adding to our national debt."

And how is another Republican governor going to change that after having a unpopular Republican governor in CA who has had to cut wages to pay for the state's budget problems? It seems pretty greedy to me.


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Farleftandproud:

I don't think Survey USA is always bad, but I think they have the same polling techniques in all 50 states. I think they sometimes give the GOP too much credit or show them with a higher turnout and the Dems with a lower turnout in states like Washington or CA. They sometimes use Georgia and SC voting turnout and standards in states like CA or IL where the Democratic turnout will be higher.

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Paleo:

"Maybe the democrats will ask the black panthers to intimidate voters again, but dont see many ways for them to win..."

Maybe the Republicans can bring back Jeb Bush, Kathyrn Harris and Ken Blackwell, to purge voter rolls, cage voters, and supply either defective or an insufficient number of voting
machines in order to win.

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Farleftandproud:

Fiorina successfully lobbied to have jobs outsourced to India and China while she was HP's CEO. You can find statements about her exploits written by HP employees here: http://www.carly-fiorina.com/hp-employees-on-carly-fiorina/gbook.php

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Field Marshal:

Boxer's great. We could use a whole lot more like her in the senate.

God help us all. When i read that comment, i just had this flash in my mind of a hydrogen bomb going off.

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Paleo:

With you riding it, like Slim Pickens in Dr. Strangelove?

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Farleftandproud:

Well I think Boxer is underated and underappreciated. Americans have a short memory. When John Kerry and Hillary Clinton voted to take us to war with Iraq, Boxer, Kennedy and Feingold stood strong and didn't.

You know, this close election may give me an excuse to go back to CA this fall and campaign for Boxer. I am used to going to Ohio, PA and NH to campaign, but I'm going to check airfairs to LA, and help out in Santa Barbara and Santa Monica Democrats and enjoy a nice victory party in the end.

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vincent106:

@farleft

Youre a left wing hack. Boxer is a moron that is no way underappreciated. Kerry and Kennedy are right up there with her in terms of worst senators.

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obamalover:

@FM

Are you for real? Boxer has been a Senator of Cali for a long time. They are not going to "learn" anything new about her. Your post was just plain deluded and silly like all your other posts.

Fiorina is still a relative unknown. And most people don't know she was forced out as HP's CEO.

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nick283:

yes purging voter rolls of people who haven't voted in a long time and may be dead (but of course still allowing them to vote when they show up) is the same thing as carrying weapons and yelling racial epithets at voters you think are unlikely to support your candidate... good argument.

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Paleo:

Yeah, tell that to all the people who showed up to vote throughout the state of Florida, but we're told they couldn't. Or the lack of voting machines in Columbus, Ohio. But two black guys in one voting precincts is far more egregious. You right wingers are unbelievable. It's one thing to lie, but when you start believing your lies . . . .

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nick283:

no, its not unbelievable that this occured. What is unbelievable is that it is on tape and yet the Obama justice department has done nothing about it to punish these guys. By the way, who are the American citizens who were denied their right to vote? If there were any Republicans intimidating people from voting, by all means they should be prosecuted. Of course, I guess its just easier for you to make things up. Who are these people that showed up throughout Florida? Do they exist? I watched Michael Moore's BS movie about this and didnt see anyone saying, "hey, I wasn't allowed to vote." I guess the whole right wing conspiracy thing is much easier for you to believe...

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Field Marshal:

How about the convicted felons voting for Franken? Or trunk loads of ballots in the same race? How about Gore suppressing overseas ballots or trying for a selective county recount or re-writing election laws after the fact that suit their interest?

I still remain convinced that a Rep needs to win an election by at least 3-4% or the Dems will always steal it, 2000 Pres being the exception. Dems are the masters at election fraud.

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Field Marshal:

nick, it's the voices in Michael Moore head, or some other left wing moonbat, who then sends out a mass email to all the ObamaBots who then repeat it ad nauseum.

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nick283:

Seriously, Paleo also says I am a liar, but what I am talking about is on tape. It's really pathetic. They just throw around terms like liar racist and neocon even if they have nothing to do with what they are talking about. Oh well, guess that's what we can expect from people who bought into all that hopey changey stuff.

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Field Marshal:

You are talking about VERY gullible people. When it comes to facts, you will notice that most posts are lacking any at all. There's a reason for that. Hence their attempt to marginalize by using dumb name-calling.

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