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CA: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 1/14)


Rasmussen
1/14/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

California

2010 Senate (trends)
46% Boxer (D), 43% Fiorina (R) (chart)
46% Boxer (D), 40% DeVore (R)
46% Boxer (D), 42% Campbell (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barbara Boxer: 51 / 46 (chart)
Chuck DeVore: 33 / 29
Carly Fiorina: 38 / 34
Tom Campbell: 49 / 23

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Please do a new poll for Mass. I can't stand the suspense.

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tjampel:

We're used to the Ras likely voter screen which has yielded a Repub +9 generic advantage.

As a Dem I was very skeptical of it at first. I am growing less so now, based on the responses to a whole slew of polls on policy and legislative questions. I'm seeing a more conservative group of respondents not just in Ras but in CNN and everywhere else as well. Therefore, while I would like to think that Boxer is about 3-4 points higher than this (around 50%) who knows.

This angst, which manifests as anger against what's being done in Washington may continue unabated for the next 10 months or, if the economy starts to improve and some popular legislation is passed, it may start to subside. Fear drives people and there's a lot of it out there right now and a lot of it is focused on whether big government initiatives benefit average Americans.

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tjampel:

One more odd thing about this poll is the consistency of the numbers. It's as if people were considering Generic Dem vs Generic Repub rather than considering each candidate on their own merits. Kind of a creepy result really.

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Farleftandproud:

I have heard about Fiorina and read about her platform. She is quite socially liberal. Do you think the GOP would actually nominate her in California? California true blood Republicans today are quite conservative, and many are socially conservative. She could have a shot winning some hispanic independents, but she seems too moderate to get the nomination.

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mrut:

A lot of independents associate Fiorina with the ruination of Hewlett-Packerd. I, too, don't know if she can win a Republican primary, but if she does, she will face negative attitudes regarding her competence (and her willingness to take an obscene amount of money to walk away from HP after she screwed it up).

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Farleftandproud:

Fiorini will have a hard tim not looking like a hypocrite since the GOP drama kings and queens want to blame Obama for every corporate mess that was mostly done by the previous administration. I am so sick of it. Stick up for yourself obama! Don't let the crazy right wing freak holes win! I would take a bullet if I knew I could change public opinion and set the people straight.

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Farleftandproud:

This is a safe seat. Fiorina is wasting her money in California. By the time the 2010 election comes up, and the fear from Obama supporters in CA at the dirty dogs the GOP are, they will wake up and vote. Maybe the left of ctr base is asleep right now, but a sleeping giant has woken up.

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LordMike:

Carly Fiorina will have 10's of thousands of current and former HP employees mnobilizing against her.

She testified to congress that "Americans do not deserve good jobs." Direct quote!

She has strong vulnerabilities!

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al of arabia:

If Brown wins in MA on Tuesday there is no safe DEM seat - Senate or House - in the country.

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Farleftandproud:

No, that isn't true. It is a special election which doesn't have good turnout. Besides, Republicans can win in liberal states like Lincoln Chafee in RI did in 2000 and Susan Collins did the same year Bill Clinton won the state by 10 points. Dems picked up 5 senate seats that year.

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Farleftandproud:

I meant in 2000 the Dems picked up 5 seats and they did pretty well in 96 and 98. The Dems have a playbook and they aren't just going to allow themselves go down the way they did in 1994.

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