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CA: 41% Brown, 41% Whitman (Field 9/14-21)

Topics: California , poll

Field
9/14-21/10; 599 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Field release)

California

2010 Governor
41% Brown (D), 41% Whitman (R) (chart)

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Tied in the Field poll, the most trusted poll in CA. Good poll for Whitman.

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kariq:

Field is the most respected pollster for California races. I think we can officially call this a tied race - for now.

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kariq:

I don't know why you say this is good news for Whitman. This means the race is essentially unchanged from July, and slightly worse for Whitman since March (although the "movement" is within the moe of error and should probably be discounted).

In fact, I think that it could be argued that this is bad news for Whitman. Her ads have been running non-stop for months, while Brown has been pretty much been invisible until the last couple of weeks, yet Whitman was not able to open a lead on him.

It is possible that Brown has the opportunity to sell himself to those who don't know him well, such as younger voters in Southern California, where he is not polling as strongly as a Decmoratic candidate would be expected to.

All in all, I think this poll is not good news for either candidate, but Brown has more opportunities to turn it around than Whitman does.

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Dave:

Hopefully this means Field has a Senate poll coming out soon as well.

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StatyPolly:

Whitman has not ran a lot of general elections ads yet. Most of that 100 mill was spend on the primary. Brown has had lots of negative anti Meg ads run for him by outside groups (public employee unions). Fiorina has not been running any ads lately either.

We should see an LATimes/UC poll on both eventually, since I got polled by them 5 days ago. Although, they're usually slow.

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kariq:

Brown's first attack ad against Whitman didn't hit the air until last week. Those were his first paid ads of the general campaign. Independent groups spent about 8.6 million on ads over the summer.

Whitman, by contrast, has already spent over $60 million on media buys, and the ads have been playing for months through out the state.

Given the contrast, it's just hard for me to see how Whitman pushes her numbers any higher, especially given that she is over-performing in the traditionally Democratic areas of Southern California, with Hispanics, and with younger voters. Whitman is tied or ahead with all of these groups, which is highly unusual for a Republican.

The disparity in spending means Brown is largely unknown (odd to say about a politician whose been around since the 70s, but true) to voters outside the Bay Area who are under 40. That means he still has a chance to make his case to them. Whitman, on the other hand, has been making her case all year, and she simply cannot open up a lead. I don't see how that changes for her.

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BH:

FM, agreed. If this poll is accurate, advantage Whitman.

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s.b.:

This race will come down to GOTV machines. One asssumes Dems have a bigger machine in Cal, but the Tea Party Express does live there, though they are planning on being in Nevada on election day. This does seem strange to me. Why not be in Calif. on election day with two close races?

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mirrorball:

@ Dave -- I would expect their Senate poll to come out soon. They usually poll the races at the same time and roll out the results over the course of a few days.

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StatyPolly:

S.B.

I think CA Gov race is mostly irrelevant, and the Senate race is less winnable than NV. Also, in a huge population state like CA, GOTV efforts by a small group like the Express won't make a dent, but they may in NV.

Just some guesses on my part.

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Field Marshal:

Fiorina just launched her first statewide ad buy according the WashPo. Good ad IMO as it hits Boxer for her arrogance and being out-of-touch while portraying Fiorina as anti-Washington.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2j4RF6cx0SY&feature=player_embedded

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StatyPolly:

Chris Matthews just showed the Fiorina ad. Called it "pretty brutal"

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s.b.:

Fair enough about the Dem GOTV being much bigger than the Tea Party express.

The thing that makes the Calif. race different than the rest of the country is the legalization of marajuana on the ballot.

Younger voters will come out to vote for this. Will they bother to fill in the rest of the ballot? Who knows.

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Aaron_in_TX:

If California legalized pot other states will follow.

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