Pollster.com

if the favorables are correct, Boxer looks very vulnerable here.

"If the favorables are correct"

It's Rasmussen, what do you think?

Means Boxer's ahead by 4.

Gee, the only way Fiorina gets a lead is when Rasmussen polls on Labor Day. What a surprise...

Rasmussen doesn't even try to hide its shadiness...

That's right. A one day poll on Labor Day! LOL.

Yes, let's take a poll on a holiday Monday! Rass is trying to create the impression of a wave. Sadly, he may succeed.

This poll is laughable. I think the tsunami will be category 4. For me I'm prepared for a gridlock at both the House and Senate for the next 2 years after Nov 2 with all these nut jobs making it to the august assembly.

47-42 without leaners. Looking good.

The bottom line is that Jerry Brown has not spent much money yet on the campaign since Whitman basically is buying the election. She had about a 7 point lead on Rasmussen. Brown is going to run tons of ads now.

I believe the same thing will happen with Boxer. The potential for strong turnout is there in CA. It may not be there in other states.

If Meg Whitman is elected and her approval goes below 35 percent the beauty of California is you can recall a governor. You'll see the Democrats out for revenge.

Here is a Gallup Preview Folks on the generic. DOn't know if it is the likely voter scenario yet.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

The 10 point Republican lead in Gallup has been completely erased. Both parties are now tied in the generic ballot. That's a 10 point swing in a single week.

Haha, yes Whitman is buying the election just like Obama did in 2008.

I am a progressive who is very upset that the rest of society is not progressing with my ideals, whatever they may be.

I am also very upset with Ras and SUSA for publishing polls that show that my ideas are not en vogue with mainstream society. They are obviously Republican pawns, and CNN, PPP, etc. are Republican fellow-travelers because they ultimately come up with the same numbers, just a couple of weeks late. They are all obviously underestimating minority turnout and overestimating the popularity of the Tea Party movement and the fringe 55% of our country who believe that our government must balance the budget rather than promote utopian social ideals that are totally at odds with human nature and reality and make our money disappear like it's some sort of magic trick.

Really, I'm just mad that a broad base of the American public is having a Tea Party without me and all of my widow-breaking, cliche-wielding friends. We'll show those mainstream, right-wing nuts in November. They might have the House, Senate, 32+ governorships, principles, and a coherent philosophy, but we'll still have our utopian ideals and a belief that we'll return to power soon and make all of America outside of the Northeast, Northwest, and Great Lakes pay for their common sense!

A tie on the generic is probably has a bit of noise on the negative side similar to a 10 point GOP lead had one on the positive side, on an RV scale. But, i'd take a tie on the generic RV gallup poll.

Funny post stevo.

WOW, really liberals?

You liberals who are so obsessive over Nate Silver must like to ignore the fact that he rates Rasmussen in the top three.

Those 2 candidates just had a debate, on the first of September, where Fiorina looked better than Boxer. That is why the race was recently polled........NOT because of some rasmussen bias that you all seem to hope for.

Paleo, you need to get a grip on reality. Rasmussen is NOT biased. They are one of the more reliable polling firms. They were the first to show Obama's ratings slipping. All the other pollsters are slowly catching up to Rasmussen. SUSA and Rasmussen and PPP are all showing near the same results, and for some reason, you liberals constantly think Rasmussen is the 1 polling firm of these three that is somehow republican biased.

About the Gallup poll, you guys really think that the dems have made up ground?!?! Gallup is always all over the place. Dems up one week, republicans up the next week, tied the next week. It's also registered voter sampling, which means nothing this close to the election.

I'm just saying........I don't want you liberals to all get heart attacks when you find out that Rasmussen was dead on and the GOP takes back control of the house.

What's the flaw with a one day poll taking on labor day? Well, who is more likely to answer phones. People at home with a white collar day off or the labr class who have to work their hourly job. Guess who would have polled for the Democrat if only they weren't working. This is very shady polling if you ask me.

The difference between Obama's spending in the election, and even Mccain's spending, was from soft contributions, and independent donors.

Like Bloomberg, Fiorina is outspending boxer like 6 times of her own unlimited wealth made off of workers getting slave wages in third world countries. How many times do you call a computer technician and they have a Indian accent. Fiorina is an outsourcer, who has clever spin and can go on the attack against Boxer, but her advantage seems to be what she is spending.

Whitman is outspending Brown like 100 to 1. To compare these women to Obama or even Mccain for that matter is like comparing grapefruit to oranges.

If you don't like Rasmussen, you're a liberal, not a statistician.

Or really...

All statisticians that critique Rasmussen are liberals.

What is the sound of one hand clapping?

Answer: Rasmussen Reports

FLAP, why do you care if the guy helping you with an IT problem has an Indian accent. Are you some kind of racist? When I was working in the states I had plenty of co-workers from India... Guess what, they were Americans. Just because someone doesnt talk like you doesn't make them bad.

@shabby

This is offset by families taking trips to the shore, etc. Most families with a married couple and children are conservative.

nick283:
FLAP, why do you care if the guy helping you with an IT problem has an Indian accent. Are you some kind of racist? When I was working in the states I had plenty of co-workers from India... Guess what, they were Americans. Just because someone doesnt talk like you doesn't make them bad.

That is a typical Conservative response, to try to paint me as a racist. Of course I am not. My gosh, both those from the right center and left have spoken against outsourcing.

It is the conservatives who seem to be the ones to think illegals are taking their jobs coming from Mexico, but than again they take jobs, that no white conservative is going to want.

Haven't you all heard of "Buy American" Campaigns, and of course that is harder and harder to do, but when I hear some candidate who got fired and recieved a golden handshake from HP, and cuts jobs of troubleshooters here in the states, that is a huge problem, and that is not someone I want in the US Senate.

I think both Dennis Kucinich, and Pat Buchanan wouldn't agree on very much, but based on their philosophies, they both would not be pleased with Fiorina as a candidate. Nafta was a huge mistake, and during the launching of nafta there was always an interesting alliance between some conservatives, and progressives in their opposition.

Anyone thinking that women aren't going to turnout in this election are wrong. Besides, Obama still has majority approval in CA. That is why the favorables on Carly don't ad up.

I think women will save things for Boxer in CA. I predict a big turnaround in CA, because more women support ending prop 8 then men. It is also a state where I think being pro-choice will help unite people. The problem, is that Whitman fairs well on women's issues, and Fiorina doesn't. Obviously some people think Fiorina is a moderate, which she clearly isn't, and Boxer has to de-construct her and reveal she is not qualified to lead.

@Fred:

"About the Gallup poll, you guys really think that the dems have made up ground?!?! Gallup is always all over the place. Dems up one week, republicans up the next week, tied the next week. It's also registered voter sampling, which means nothing this close to the election."

The Generic Ballot has moved Republican over that past month in all the LV polls that I've seen; however, this result negates the ability to make that same claim regard to Gallup, with its RV sample. This particular result it may be pure noise or..last week's result may be...or...to some extent...both, and the truth is somewhere in between.

The only intelligent way to use Gallup (especially given its extreme volatility this year, is to average the past x number of results to get a coherent idea of where they really are and to compare say...the last month's results with earlier ones to look for a trand (a trend which I would definitely expect to find, btw).

When you average the past 6 results it's all tied; when you average the last 4, interestingly enough, Dems are up by .75. The point is that there's now no evidence from Gallup at least that things have shifted at all over the past month and a half. (and you can go back further and find it flat-lining as well when averaged.

I'm a liberal Dem. I don't believe Gallup is useful at this point unless and until they start polling LVs. They'll transition to that...probably in their next poll. I think that RVs probably haven't shifted much if at all. However LVs have become increasingly Republican; it's as simple as that. PPP's brilliant question ("Who did you vote for in the last Presidential election") proves this. In states which went 5 or 6 points for Obama we're seeing McCain tied or up slightly ahead. So voter's opinions about the parties, Obama, etc. haven't shifted much in the past 8-9 months, but their intention to vote certainly has. That's why Republicans can win big this year.

I also agree that Repubs are definitely up at least 5 and possibly as much as 8 points in the Generic. That's enough to take control of the House. I think they'll come up a little short in the Senate.

I also seriously doubt they can win in CA, though I accept that this race is tied up at present. I think Fiorina is as high as she's going to get, and Boxer can make up a little ground and use Dems superior GOTV manpower; result should be Boxer by 3-4. If I'm wrong Dems have a good chance of losing the Senate.

I don't see any Liberals here jumping up and down celebrating; however, with this poll avg for the past 4 and 6 weeks showing no slippage among RVs, if this is really the case Dems can console themselves with the knowledge that, if they were able to to do something more dramatic to galvanize their voters who are currently planning to stay home, at least they'd probably get most of their votes. They can work towards that end. It's better than knowing that all those Dems staying home would vote Republican if they changed their minds.

Sorry...need to correct my math...I got it totally wrong.

Over the past 4 weeks Repubs up 4.5.

So...there has been a definite trend towards Repubs from the previous 4 weeks where it was about even.

Sorry bout that

Fiorina's Money, Boxer's less than stellar debate, and a bad national mood=more than a decent chance for Fiorina to win.

SUSA showed the same numbers. It's been a while but remember the very respected Field poll showed Boxer only up 3.
I still rate this as staying blue by 3-4 points. You'll have to stay up till 3-4 AM EDT if you want to know the results of this one before you get up for work.

Cali has huge pockets of a lot of white progressives near Hollywood and near San Francisco, and 2-1 hispanics have been supporting Boxer, and unless the minority turnout is really poor, Boxer would win.

If California had had a Scott Brown style election back in January, of course Fiorina would win, but the full potential of actual turnout will increase closer to election day.

I also found out that Jerry Brown had not spent hardly any money on advertising so, if Whitman has a average of a 4 point lead, that is a good sign for Jerry Brown. He is saving all his millions in campaign spending for the two months that count the most.