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CA: 49% Boxer, 40% Fiorina (PPP 7/23-25)

Topics: California , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
7/23-25/10; 614 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

California

2010 Senate
49% Boxer (D), 40% Fiorina (R) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 54 / 39 (chart)
Sen. Feinstein: 44 / 43 (chart)
Sen. Boxer: 44 / 46 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Carly Fiorina: 28 / 40

 

Comments
Steve:

Question 7: "Do you have a higher opinion of Barbara Boxer’s hair or Carly Fiorina’s hair?"

Wow.

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mirrorball:

The crosstabs on that question crack me up.

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melvin:

Why do the Republicans think they have a shot in California? The Hispanics are breaking away big time for Boxer.A local station in Phoenix is reporting Hundreds of American born Hispanics are going to test the ARZ law to see if it profiles,by running red lights with 4 or more Latinos in the vehicle, they wants to find out if the police ask them for proof of Citizenship.This is going to be very intrusting come Thursday.

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Dave:

Looks like Arizona will be getting lots of revenue from traffic violations then. The law is working out well already!

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Otis Izaltumuch:

The only surprising thing here is that Feinstein's positives are no higher than Boxer's (and are lower than Obama's). The conventional wisdom is that Feinstein has a lifetime lock on the California electorate - it was widely assumed, for instance, that she could have had the 2010 governorship for the asking, if she had wanted it. And the Fiorina campaign made a clumsy attempt to distance Boxer from Feinstein, probably worried that some of Feinstein's magic would rub off on her colleague.

(Fiorina's failure on the other hand was foreseeable from day one of her inept campaign.)

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Field Marshal:

The AZ is already working as the illegals flee the state.


Migrants sell up, flee Arizona ahead of crackdown

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2514063220100725

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djneedle83:

I'm very liberal on the political scale, but I feel like many Hispanics want to play by their own set of rules.

I read all of the polling related to SB1070 and the majority of Hispanics support having non criminal penalties for breaking immigration laws. That's the natural feeling of this debate.

Prediction-- Judge Bolton isn't going to rule a complete injunction of the law. This baby is staying with minor parts of the law being ruled unconstitutional. Then the AZ legislature will make small fixes to law.

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melvin:

Field Marshal: These are going to be American born Citizens heading down to Arizona to test the law.Now give me one reason why illegal immigrants would try to test it? What the organizers is trying to do is find out if this law profiles people because of they're race.Am betting you are going to hear tons of stories of people telling CNN how they was profiled because of they're race starting on Thursday.

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Dave:

Do you have a link? Or is this more stuff being pulled out of nowhere?

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melvin:

Am guessing the law in Arizona is going to be struck down before Thursday,either the Judge is going to find it unconstitutional or set another date when the law starts,so that the Judge could have more time to review the law.

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melvin:

Dave: Now why would the organizers put this online? Fox News will eat it up.A local reporter in PHX is reporting a Hispanic group along with Al Sharpton is going to be heading down to ARZ to test the law.

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Dave:

Yes, and unless this local Phoenix reporter called you and told you this personally, the story must be posted online somewhere right?

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nick283:

So the electorate in Boxer's race is going to be less white than it was in 2008. Seems unlikely...

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Huda:

Sen. Feinstein, one of those in desperate need of political retirement.

Boxer seems to be fairing well, but then again her opponent isn't one worth electing.

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melvin:

Dave: Am guessing the big mouth is Elton John.

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Farleftandproud:

Feinstein is more popular than Boxer because she is more moderate. She has tended to be more of a cautious Democrat rather than a gutsy one. Nothing wrong with that, because they usually have easier re-elections.

It reminds of of Feingold Vs Kohl; We all know Feingold because he is a gutsy politician; whether we like him or hate him, he is never afraid to take stands, and takes on big corporations. Kohl is not as well known, but more moderate which means he probably is going to be more likely to vote in favor of special interests.

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Aaron_in_TX:

The AZ law is a potential nightmare.

1) there will be civil rights groups that will test it and try to bait the police. All it takes is one frustrated cop hauling a citizen to jail over some ID discrepancy and BAM! the state loses millions.

I know I would sue if I forgot my ID and they put me in jail. I expect a ticket/fine, not an arrest for forgetting my id.

2) if they do start deporting people they catch in routine stops, what will the process be? What will happen to their kids if they have any? Well, now the kids, who are probably American citizens, will go on welfare or become state wards.

3) Local law enforcement is busy enough without having to double as la migra.

I just don't see how the state comes out on top on this, financially or otherwise. It will probably cost them more than they save. They've opened a pandora's box.

This is why Rick Perry doesn't want to open up that can of worms here.

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melvin:

Aaron you are 100% right,this law is going to break Arizona,but once again i think its going to be struck down before Thursday.

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Field Marshal:

there will be civil rights groups that will test it and try to bait the police.

That's ridiculous. So, if an idiot goes down there, gets pulled over on purpose, speaks little or no English and has no drivers license, they are then going to sue the police for arresting them?

I equate this whole dumb, fabricated outcry to the TSA and new airport profiling after 9/11. Civil rights groups complained that Arab Americans would be unfairly treated and profiled. The TSA was then profiling 80 year old grandmothers and babies before more rational outcry reversed and protected the TSA from the racial profiling charges.

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Xenobion:

Grandmothers and babies are the targets. They can't be trusted. Where are all our Libertarians at to back me up?

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Then the AZ legislature will make small fixes to law."

If they removed the words "reasonable suspicion" then I would really have no problem with it. I support the parts that deal with employers.

What I don't support is demonizing the victims in this situation, which is what republicans tend to do. The illegal individuals have little power here.

Illegal immigration is not really an immigration problem, it's a labor problem. What people are doing is demonizing those that probably spent their life savings to get smuggled over here to work a job for less than minimum wage. Many of them are already victimized by the more powerful people that ENABLED and ENCOURAGED them to come here and now they are going to live more in fear and do exactly the opposite of what we need them to do to solve this problem, which is reveal themselves.

What we should be doing is attacking the problem at its source, which are the push/pull factors that compel people to come illegally, or create a legal avenue for the labor to get done if employers are so unwilling to pay the wages that citizens demand.

Again, the anger is going in the wrong direction, but people always tend to scapegoat weaker groups when they are just as complicit in the problem. The influx of illegal immigrants was at its peak during the housing boom. It takes two to tango and people are not acknowledging that and instead lashing out.

These immigrant/labor conflicts have occurred regularly throughout American history and always get worse in poor economic times.

It's the same blindness with the drug violence. If America's demand for drugs was not so high, there would be much less drug violence. If America's desire for cheap labor was not so great, there would not be an illegal immigration problem.

On another note, this could possibly be a PR disaster for AZ. All it will take is one Elian Gonzalez-style episode where parents are ripped away from their children. The optics will overshadow the issues at hand.

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melvin:

Believe me the Republican party is worried about this coming Thursday,because it could blow up in they're faces.Gov. Brewer is going to blame Obama if all hell break loose in the coming weeks,you can count on that

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Field Marshal:

On another note, this could possibly be a PR disaster for AZ. All it will take is one Elian Gonzalez-style episode where parents are ripped away from their children. The optics will overshadow the issues at hand.

There are Elian Gonzalez stories almost every week with some illegal immigrant killing a US citizen. We just had one here in CO where an illegal was so drunk he drove his truck into a Baskin Robbins and killed a toddler. He had been pulled over a half a dozen times and had a rap sheet a mile long.

There is no way Obama comes out a winner on this issue. Either the US strikes down the law (which is highly unlikely) and he comes off as condoning breaking the law or he loses the lawsuit. Either way, white flight from the Dems continues.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"this whole dumb, fabricated outcry to the TSA and new airport profiling after 9/11."

That's different for several reasons. Most notably people are willing to tolerate a lot when security is a factor.

Besides, illegal immigrants are not analagous to terrorists.

Also, 40% of undocumented residents are not from Mexico. The rest are from other Latin American countries, eastern Europe, Philippines, China, African countries, middle east, etc... so they shouldn't be profiling, they should be checking whites, blacks, and asians as well. All types of people overstay their visas. Will that happen? I never hear about complaints regarding THOSE illegal immigrants.

Bottom line is, the law makes an implication regarding American citizenship and race, even though its language tries to avoid it. It is unavoidable in practice as long as "reasonable suspicion" language remains. You either have to check everyone or no one because there is no American race or language that *should* indicate citizenship.

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Paleo:

Very encouraging results. Its beginning to look like one of the best senators is on her way to a fourth term.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"There are Elian Gonzalez stories almost every week with some illegal immigrant killing a US citizen."

LOL!

How many drunk drivers kill people daily? How many of them had been pulled over before? Yeah, if he had been deported then that situation wouldn't have happened. But then if EVERY victim of a drunk driver was somewhere else, they would also not have died.

So some illegal people commit some of the same crimes that citizens do. The bigger problem is that he was driving and was drunk. But you seem to be suggesting the crime is somehow magnified because he wasn't a citizen.

You're using some of the same logic that lat was using about evengelicals.

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Field Marshal:

You either have to check everyone or no one because there is no American race or language that *should* indicate citizenship.

No, but there is common sense. They should remove the prohibition to profiling because now the police will be afraid of being accused of profiling like the TSA were with Arab americans. Police should be allowed to use simple common sense to determine citizenship after making a police stop. AZ police are experienced enough to know correctly, probably as well as 9 out of 10 times, who is legal and who is not.

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Field Marshal:

So some illegal people commit some of the same crimes that citizens do. The bigger problem is that he was driving and was drunk. But you seem to be suggesting the crime is somehow magnified because he wasn't a citizen.

But you are making the same argument with the Elian Gonzalez point. How many children are going to be ripped away from their parents daily? You seem to make the case that since some people will be inconvenienced after breaking our laws.

My point is that he shouldn't have been in the country and had the opportunity to kill the child. Your comment about every victim of a drunk driver being somewhere else is nonsense. The person in this case shouldn't have been here after his first infraction with the law. Had we had decent politicians and dems not looking for future voters, he wouldn't have been.

The story was on the news for weeks. I can bet it changed a TON of peoples minds in favor of the AZ law.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"How many children are going to be ripped away from their parents daily?"

It doesn't happen now at the hands of the authorities. And when is it sanctioned by law? If it happens to criminals (chronic drug offenders, theives, etc...) their kids go to cps and get put in foster homes.

That will change if the immigration hawks get their way. They would break up families on account of a speeding violation. There's going to be a bunch of kids in foster homes subsidized by the government in AZ. I'm sure THAT will endear the burgeoning hispanic generation to republicans.

"My point is that he shouldn't have been in the country and had the opportunity to kill the child."

I know that's what you were saying. It would be a perfect world if we could just remove the undesirable people that commit crimes. It's irrelevant that the guy was illegal. Someone else's kid died in a drunk driving accident at the same moment. Perhaps he would have killed someone driving drunk in Mexico. How does that make it better?

Remove every single illegal person and there will still be drunk driving accidents at the same rate, unless you can prove to me somehow that American citizens drive drunk at a lower rate. But I know you can't because there are no crime statistics exclusively for illegal residents.

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Aaron_in_TX:

This is where illegal immigration becomes very difficult.

Who committed the worse crime? The people that brought them here or the people that came? One wouldn't have happened without the other.

I would rather stop illegal immigration on the demand side. Much easier laws to enforce and less chance for human rights issues to happen. If jail was threatened to anyone who hired an illegal to do anything, I guarantee they would stop coming.

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Bukama:

The problem with illegal aliens driving drunk or committing other crimes is they don't have valid licenses in the first place. They get fake ones or already have a penchant for breaking the law and driving when they shouldn't. If I got a dui, I would lose my license and not drive.

Most citizens react to DUIs that way. Illegal aliens never had valid licenses. And if they get pulled over for speeding or lack of proof of insurance, they simply shrug, take the ticket and drive off, because the ticket is linked to a stolen or forged license anyway, so they don't care. They toss the ticket and get a new license.

What is really galling is when they get caught having "forgotten" their license. If this happens to a citizen, the police makes a judgment call - did this person really just forget their license, or are they driving illegally. When an illegal alien gets caught, in sanctuary cities like Denver, they get released with a warning because the police are ill-equiped with what to do. They have been told not to turn over the person to ICE. They can't prove they are licensed (they can't even prove they are citizens. The police can charge them, but in Denver, the charge gets reduced to agricultural tresspass or some such nonsense, and in any case, the illegal doesn't show up for his hearing and changes his identity so he is never taken off the road. then he crashes into a Baskin Robbins and kills a toddler - this enrages law-abiding citizens, when the person should not have been on the road after being caught 1) driving illegally and 2) being in the country illegally.

The failure to understand this basic frustration in the population at large is why liberals don't realize that Tom tancredo could actually win the Governor's race in Colorado! it's not likely, butthe underlying frustration is really big.

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Field Marshal:

Couldn't agree more bukama.

No body brings illegals here. They come here seeking higher pay. No business specifically states for an illegal to cross the border just so they can hire them.

Business should be punished severely punished just like the illegal immigrant.

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Nick:

hmmmm, interesting about how this poll is about the CA senate race but most of the chatter is about AZ

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lat:

Don't worry Scottie Sheetmussen will have a poll out in the next few days showing Carly leading...

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tjampel:

Fiorina's problems appear to be with her own party, with moderates, and with independents.

Says PPP in their release:

"Fiorina isn’t seen favorably in the eyes of most Californians; 40% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican, 28% give her high marks and 32% have yet to form an opinion. Only 56% of Republicans support Fiorina and 25% are still unsure about their nominee."

Looking at the cross-tabs her numbers among moderates are abysmal. Only 20% favorable against 50% unfavorable. Compare with Boxer, who was underwater with moderates not so long ago; she's now at 48% job approval vs 39%. Looking at independents Boxer is at 40/48; however, by comparison Fiorina is in deep deep water at 20/40. Yeah, there are a lot of not sures, so...we'll see. I see no reason why they would break better than 50/50. If they do that she'll be at 40/60.

Lastly, Boxer is currently blowing Fiorina away with moderates by 57% to 30%. With Independents Boxer is up 48% to 38%

Fiorina still has a chance to make the sale to Repubs. She can probable consolidate her base a lot better than this poll shows; however her situation with moderates looks bleak, and she'll lose if she can't find a way to win them back.

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Aaron_in_TX:

@ Bukama and FM

Oh I sense very clearly the resentment coming from you two. You have equated all 12 million illegal aliens with the one who was driving drunk. Do you seriously believe that all of them have the ability to change their identity and generate fake IDs at will? These are uneducated, unskilled people making minimum wage or less who probably don't speak fluent English and you've elevated them to professional criminals. How many of them do you think even own their own car?

"No body brings illegals here."

Are you completely daft?

I'll explain this again. I grew up 20 miles from the Rio Grande in a farming community. I was surrounded by migrant workers for 18 years. There are definitely people who bring them here. They don't just hike across the landscape, swim across the river and voila! start collecting welfare! That's b.s.

There are jobs that employers want done that they don't have to pay minimum wage or SS taxes on. They want to pay cash by the day, week, or by informal contract. The people back in Mexico have family or friends who have been working these jobs communicate to them that these jobs are available. Their family or community back home pools money together to send some across, this money is used to pay a smuggler. They probably have to pay others to get them where they need to be to start the job. After a while they develop networks of jobs that can be nearby or all over the country. I knew one who went to Kentucky for a few months every year to work on a tobacco farm. Their labor is regularly extorted and they have no recourse. They are victimized by the employers and by criminals - mafia types or gangs that can terrorize the colonias.

Agricultural work is not all they do. Over time they fill every low-skilled and even skilled but unwanted occupations you can think of - dishwashing, maids, construction, yardwork, and on and on and on. The middle class thinks they're too good to do these jobs and that's no surprise since we train our kids from K-12 to go to college. Why should they WANT to work jobs like that?

Illegal immigrants are the functional equivalents of slaves, and like the slaves were, they are essential to our economy. After the slaves blacks continued to fill that role, as well as Irish immigrants followed by Italian followed by slavic followed by chinese, followed by Russian Jews, and so forth filled those menial jobs that built the country. Those groups were always scapegoated, often by the people who WERE the immigrants 2-3 generations prior.

You think the average hs kid is going to lay patio tile in the 100-degree Texas heat? Not for $7.25 an hour or less he ain't. He'd probably pass out since he's grown up in a/c.

If you want American citizens who go through K-12 to do those jobs, we either have to raise the wages to the $10-12 an hour it takes to be independent... or lower expectations considerably. Educate them through 6th or 8th max and put them in the workforce. Oops, that's child labor, I thought we progressed beyond that.

Until then immigrants will do that labor cheaper than the privileged classes that have been in America for some time. Some of those immigrants will be illegal because the labor demand is far greater than the immigrant quota for the western hemisphere.

Illegal immigrants will do more work for less pay. That's capitalism at work isn't it? You seem to be against letting the free market work here.

You fail to see this is a labor issue and see it only as a criminal issue.

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StatyPolly:

Aaron, you are arguing for open borders. It's a very radical stance. No country in the world worth breaking into has open borders to the extend we do. Or allows illegal immigrants to reside unmolested to the extend we do.

AZ has had a sizable Hispanic population for centuries, and a sizable illegal Hispanic population for decades. Whites and other legal residents never had any serious objections until recently. What changed is the sharp increase in very violent crime caused by illegals. It has nothing to do with whether overall crime rate has gone down. You know that. Highly organized, highly violent, brutal gangs are taking over, and threaten everyone who stands on their way. There are section of state parks where Feds posted signs advising not to enter because dangerous drug and human traffickers are operating there. Does that seem reasonable that that citizens cannot enter state parks out of fear of foreign nationals in our own country? NOT ACCEPTABLE.

And then, there is a little matter of money. AZ has a serious budget crunch and costs of incarcerating illegal immigrants who committed other serious crimes is very high. Not to mention all other costs associated with illegals that strain the budget. Schools, health care, ect.. Where is the sympathy for legal residents that bear those costs? It's not unlike the sympathy for a bank robber or insurance scammer, who has a touching story for really needing the money he stole. Since the victims of those crimes are faceless. Nevertheless, those crimes are against society at large. We are all victims of such crimes.

Jobs is another fair point. I never bought that American won't do those jobs. Pay me enough and I'll pick lettuce and mow lawns. With a smile. I hear that here in SoCal illegal construction workers get $10-20 per hour for jobs that contractors would have to pay 20-40 for legal workers. So illegals do take jobs away from American citizens.

So please, enough with the racism and xenophobia accusations. AZ had more illegals in the past and had no problems until crime and economy got bad.

I am fully aware that looking at ground level, overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants from south of the border are otherwise law abiding, hard working, family oriented people. I don't have any problems having them here, living in the shadows, if they're not criminals and not a financial drain on society. I have a big problem with amnesty though. There are tens and hundreds of millions of people around the world who want to come to live in US. Why should we reward those who just happened to already be here through violating our laws. However trivial these laws may seem to some. Rewarding wrongful behavior is never the right thing to do, because it will always lead to more wrongful behavior.

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Field Marshal:

Are you completely daft?

Did you read your own post? The businesses aren't physically bringing them here. Its the other illegals and the migrant workers families who scrape together the money to send the person across the border. You are implying that the business owner is directly subsidizing the crossing which is disingenuous.

I do equate all 12 million at the same level- the level of criminal. Period. There is no buts or although that should follow. Either you respect the law or you don't.

What we should simply create is a guest worker program for agricultural work and construction labor. That's it. The labor/business issue is just as bad. We need to have felony laws against the hiring of illegals. We tried here in CO but the Dems squashed it.

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Gopherguy:

Field Marshal,

You have one big flaw in your viewpoint. You view illegals as criminals but legals as non-criminals.

Guess what, you're wrong. Almost every single legal resident in the United States is a criminal. If you have ever gone above the speed limit while driving you are a criminal, you have broken the law.

If you have ever tried a drug or had alcohol underage you have broken the law, you are a criminal.

You cannot selectively say one group of people are criminals and one group of people aren't. All people are criminals, that would make illegals no less criminal than you and me.

Every person is a criminal, the only difference is most of us are convicts. However, if you have ever paid a speeding ticket or a parking ticket in your life, then you have admitted guilt for the offense, thus you are a convict.

So you're right. Either you respect the law or you don't. Clearly, you, me, and every other American has not respected the law at some point, so why should we hold non-Americans to the same standard?

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