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CA: 49% Brown, 44% Whitman (USC/LATimes 9/15-22)

Topics: California , poll

USC / LA Times by GQR (D) and American Viewpoint (R)
9/15-22/10; 887 likely voters, 3.3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(LA times story, GQR release)

California

2010 Governor
49% Brown (D), 44% Whitman (R) (chart)

2010 Senate
53% Boxer (D), 38% Fiorina (R) (chart)

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Senate race should be 50-43.

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Dave:

Party ID on this poll: 55 Dem, 35 R, 9 independent
Party ID on Election Day 2008: 42 Dem, 30 R, 28 independent

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JJC:

Yeah, the sample is way off. Republicans on the west coast have lost momentum, but it's still very close.

Rasmussen probably had it right with boxer about 4 points ahead. If the GOP has any hopes of taking the senate, they need to make a massive push in California and Washington, and hope they can pull an upset in either NY, WV, or CT.

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StatyPolly:

1 Likely voters are defined as registered voters that meet certain conditions based on previous vote history as determined from a
voter file, likelihood of voting in 2010, and enthusiasm in the election. This includes respondents who voted in both the previous
two general elections who indicate they are “almost certain” or “probably” will vote in 2010 and those who have registered since
the 2008 election due to ineligibility who are “almost certain,” all of whom must respond 5 or higher on a 0-10 enthusiasm scale.

In other words - kaka of a LV screen, since "both the previous two general elections" were huge Dem waves.

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John:

"Party ID on this poll: 55 Dem, 35 R, 9 independent"

Actually the LV is 43%D, 28%R, 29%I. The leaners if you want to compare to the exit poll probably should be included as independent, (although the question is slightly different). However the sample still seems somewhat off, (perhaps a breakdown of 40D, 31R, 29I would be more likely which would close the results by about 4-5 points). However another way to look at it, is this poll has 34% conservative, 37% moderate , 27% liberal, compared to in both 06/08 elections 30C/44(45)M/25L, and in 04 28C/46M/26L. So the Con/Mod/Lib breakdown seems about right. Perhaps they are polling too many conservative democrats?

ps, the senate race LV should be 51% Boxer, 43% Fiorina, the 53-38 is for all respondents.

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Field Marshal:

"There is little change in the House forecast from last week. Republicans are assigned a 65 percent chance of taking over the House by our forecasting model, up slightly from 62 percent last week."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/25/holding-pattern-in-house-forecast/

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Bob in SJ:

Fiorina hasn't led outside of the MOE for six weeks, and hasn't led in any poll for the last three. Not a great trend for her.

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