10/15-16/08; 615 LV, 4%
Obama 59, McCain 35
CA, WY - how bout UT - anybody polling UT? No? After the disgraceful internals in your FL survey, - - here's a further suggestion - SUSA - poll yourself.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:02 PM
Stop the presses! Obama may win California!
Well, if McCain were experiencing a national surge, he wouldn't be losing CA by 24. This is about 10 points better than his projection on 538.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:08 PM
@1imagine, don't be so hard on SUSA....they are one of the best we have in the business....they release their complete internals all the time and that is how we know what a pollster actually polled....every pollster gets some polls wrong sometime or the other....I would still take SUSA over someone like Rasmussen who never gives internals for state polls(wonder if he gives this info for premium members!)
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:12 PM
Yeah, the CA poll isn't a biggie like Ark. or SD might be.
But check out SurveyUSA's previous CA polls (via 538.com)
Sep 24th,- O+10
Oct 5th, - O+16
Now, - O+24
Does this trend make nearby Nevada more likely to go Obama?
But wait a minute kids...less than 2 weeks ago Obama was ahead by 16% in CA. Now he is ahead by 24? Yes, Obama is crumbling :-)
SurveyUSA 10/04 - 10/05 670 LV --
Obama 55 McCain 39 Obama +16
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:13 PM
imagine- lol. good one.
I am rather surprised by susa - they are normally a reasonable pollster. But their FL poll was utterly bogus. Some tool on this site tried to BS that there are a lot of "military AAs" there or something. LOL. The delusion of repubs never ceases to amaze.....
After the last two weeks of racist crowds at the repub's rallies, do you think that any sane AAs will EVER vote repub again???
From 95-5 to 100-0 is what is going to happen. You watch, my friends, AAs don't take too kindly to racism (I know, how crazy is that?). They will make mccain pay. In addition, it also turns off other sane people of all persuasions. Kinda sad when your base is a bunch of knuckle-dragging KKK members......
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:14 PM
Compare Obama performance to Kerry in 2004:
SurveyUSA | 10/15-10/17 703 LV 3.8
Bush 43 Kerry 53 - Kerry +10
SurveyUSA | 10/2-10/4 748 LV 3.7
Bush 43 Kerry 51 - Kerry +8
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:15 PM
If Obama carries CA by a margin anywhere close to what is being shown in this poll it would be amazing!
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:17 PM
Mike BarniclePosted October 16, 2008 | 02:44 PM (EST)
McCain at Sunset
Now, with less than three weeks to the end, he comes to the country staggering toward defeat, his pride and honor certainly diminished by the incoherence of his campaign and the absurdity of the choice he agreed to when it came to picking someone who would share a national ticket charged with talking, coaxing, massaging the country through a tough and turbulent time. And as the clock winds toward the conclusion, America looks and listens to a different John McCain than the man who captured so many hearts when he first ran for president, only eight years ago.
That guy is MIA, missing in action, held captive by ideologues who dominate his strategy sessions and what is left of the Republican party. So John McCain sat there on the stage at Hofstra Wednesday night, looking and sounding like an angry old man, bitter at the lack of traction -- or belief -- in his candidacy, uncomfortable with what he has allowed himself to become: a cranky senior citizen seething with resentment over how his glory days are lost in the long shadow cast by youth and change.
It is a sad story: a proud and independent man permits a handful of advisers to take his hard-earned reputation and alter it to such an extent that the original is now hard to recognize, nearly invisible behind a curtain of cynical ads and the preposterous pronouncements of a woman whose candidacy is an insult to intelligence.
John McCain used to know that the country was larger than any crowd he could ever draw; that it was filled with ordinary people who live their lives in the middle of a political spectrum, too busy making ends meet, to be driven to extremes by the fevers and fears that consume so many of the talk-radio set. He used to be aware that in order to win, a candidate could not simply preach to the converted, snarl and run with a resentment aimed at the fringe, the mixed mobs of the curious and angry that turn out for Palin.
Now, with time running out, he has only a few days left to try and reclaim himself, to find the man he once was, the whole man who could charm a crowd with his version of the truth. He criss-crosses a country filling up with fear and debt, a land fighting two wars as it fights for a weekly paycheck, a nation where more people worry about General Motors than think about General Petraeus. Political campaigns, like much of life itself, often revolve around one universal issue: the absence of money.
So, when John McCain tosses out a name from yesterday, William Ayers, it means nothing to people who want only to be told about tomorrow. These are the people who vote, the people who have seen the distant dream of retirement crushed by the collapse of so many 401K's in -- what? -- less than a month. They have no time for spite or a candidate's smirk or snarl. They are consumed with concern for the value of their home, the stability of their job, the immediate future of their family.
Unfortunately for McCain, he did little to stop the thieves who took his honor and reputation and tossed it out like so many discarded items for a yard sale, figuring that Americans could once again -- one more time -- be fooled into voting their fears. But what they really did was take the one Republican who may have had a legitimate shot at surviving the disaster that has been the Bush administration and strip him of the basic appeal he once had for people looking for someone who could lead.
The dreary dialogue of the past few weeks has finally managed to make the man look his age, look old and tired and embarrassed to be defending Palin while awkwardly injecting the absurd -- Ayers -- into the national dialogue when nearly everyone is riveted on the obvious: the family budget.
Soon, the 'Straight Talk Express' will bank west and head for the Arizona desert and election eve. And John McCain will sit up front, staring out the window, exhausted, as the plane crosses the land he loves and the people -- millions of them -- he failed to connect with because while he was once indeed a prisoner of war, he has spent the last ten weeks letting himself become a prisoner of the past.
I still don't understand how SUSA gets such high % of AA for McCain in CA. This time 18%? I think last one showed 12%. Can BO really be losing AAs to McCain/Palin when their rallies have people carrying stuffed monkeys as props? Wish they had some data for statewide ballot measures. Otherwise worthless.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:20 PM
FROM THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE EDITORIAL BOARD
Tribune endorsement: Barack Obama for president
2:33 PM CDT, October 17, 2008
However this election turns out, it will dramatically advance America's slow progress toward equality and inclusion. It took Abraham Lincoln's extraordinary courage in the Civil War to get us here. It took an epic battle to secure women the right to vote. It took the perseverance of the civil rights movement. Now we have an election in which we will choose the first African-American president . . . or the first female vice president.
In recent weeks it has been easy to lose sight of this history in the making. Americans are focused on the greatest threat to the world economic system in 80 years. They feel a personal vulnerability the likes of which they haven't experienced since Sept. 11, 2001. It's a different kind of vulnerability. Unlike Sept. 11, the economic threat hasn't forged a common bond in this nation. It has fed anger, fear and mistrust.
On Nov. 4 we're going to elect a president to lead us through a perilous time and restore in us a common sense of national purpose.
The strongest candidate to do that is Sen. Barack Obama. The Tribune is proud to endorse him today for president of the United States.
On Dec. 6, 2006, this page encouraged Obama to join the presidential campaign. We wrote that he would celebrate our common values instead of exaggerate our differences. We said he would raise the tone of the campaign. We said his intellectual depth would sharpen the policy debate. In the ensuing 22 months he has done just that.
Many Americans say they're uneasy about Obama. He's pretty new to them.
We can provide some assurance. We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago. We have watched him, worked with him, argued with him as he rose from an effective state senator to an inspiring U.S. senator to the Democratic Party's nominee for president.
We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready.
The change that Obama talks about so much is not simply a change in this policy or that one. It is not fundamentally about lobbyists or Washington insiders. Obama envisions a change in the way we deal with one another in politics and government. His opponents may say this is empty, abstract rhetoric. In fact, it is hard to imagine how we are going to deal with the grave domestic and foreign crises we face without an end to the savagery and a return to civility in politics.
This endorsement makes some history for the Chicago Tribune. This is the first time the newspaper has endorsed the Democratic Party's nominee for president.
The Tribune in its earliest days took up the abolition of slavery and linked itself to a powerful force for that cause--the Republican Party. The Tribune's first great leader, Joseph Medill, was a founder of the GOP. The editorial page has been a proponent of conservative principles. It believes that government has to serve people honestly and efficiently.
With that in mind, in 1872 we endorsed Horace Greeley, who ran as an independent against the corrupt administration of Republican President Ulysses S. Grant. (Greeley was later endorsed by the Democrats.) In 1912 we endorsed Theodore Roosevelt, who ran as the Progressive Party candidate against Republican President William Howard Taft.
The Tribune's decisions then were driven by outrage at inept and corrupt business and political leaders.
We see parallels today.
The Republican Party, the party of limited government, has lost its way. The government ran a $237 billion surplus in 2000, the year before Bush took office -- and recorded a $455 billion deficit in 2008. The Republicans lost control of the U.S. House and Senate in 2006 because, as we said at the time, they gave the nation rampant spending and Capitol Hill corruption. They abandoned their principles. They paid the price.
We might have counted on John McCain to correct his party's course. We like McCain. We endorsed him in the Republican primary in Illinois. In part because of his persuasion and resolve, the U.S. stands to win an unconditional victory in Iraq.
It is, though, hard to figure John McCain these days. He argued that President Bush's tax cuts were fiscally irresponsible, but he now supports them. He promises a balanced budget by the end of his first term, but his tax cut plan would add an estimated $4.2 trillion in debt over 10 years. He has responded to the economic crisis with an angry, populist message and a misguided, $300 billion proposal to buy up bad mortgages.
McCain failed in his most important executive decision. Give him credit for choosing a female running mate--but he passed up any number of supremely qualified Republican women who could have served. Having called Obama not ready to lead, McCain chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. His campaign has tried to stage-manage Palin's exposure to the public. But it's clear she is not prepared to step in at a moment's notice and serve as president. McCain put his campaign before his country.
Obama chose a more experienced and more thoughtful running mate--he put governing before politicking. Sen. Joe Biden doesn't bring many votes to Obama, but he would help him from day one to lead the country.
McCain calls Obama a typical liberal politician. Granted, it's disappointing that Obama's mix of tax cuts for most people and increases for the wealthy would create an estimated $2.9 trillion in federal debt. He has made more promises on spending than McCain has. We wish one of these candidates had given good, hard specific information on how he would bring the federal budget into line. Neither one has.
We do, though, think Obama would govern as much more of a pragmatic centrist than many people expect.
We know first-hand that Obama seeks out and listens carefully and respectfully to people who disagree with him. He builds consensus. He was most effective in the Illinois legislature when he worked with Republicans on welfare, ethics and criminal justice reform.
He worked to expand the number of charter schools in Illinois--not popular with some Democratic constituencies.
He took up ethics reform in the U.S. Senate--not popular with Washington politicians.
His economic policy team is peppered with advisers who support free trade. He has been called a "University of Chicago Democrat"--a reference to the famed free-market Chicago school of economics, which puts faith in markets.
Obama is deeply grounded in the best aspirations of this country, and we need to return to those aspirations. He has had the character and the will to achieve great things despite the obstacles that he faced as an unprivileged black man in the U.S.
He has risen with his honor, grace and civility intact. He has the intelligence to understand the grave economic and national security risks that face us, to listen to good advice and make careful decisions.
When Obama said at the 2004 Democratic Convention that we weren't a nation of red states and blue states, he spoke of union the way Abraham Lincoln did.
It may have seemed audacious for Obama to start his campaign in Springfield, invoking Lincoln. We think, given the opportunity to hold this nation's most powerful office, he will prove it wasn't so audacious after all. We are proud to add Barack Obama's name to Lincoln's in the list of people the Tribune has endorsed for president of the United States.
Copyright © 2008, Chicago Tribune
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:21 PM
this is not good news. if the blue states are going bluer but the nationals are stalling...
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:22 PM
I think that the margin in CA is very relevant because it shows the overwhelming support that Obama is getting from the Hispanic community.
See Kerry's numbers in SurveyUsa around this time in 2004:
SurveyUSA 10/15-10/17 Bush 43 Kerry 53
Among Hispanics in CA: Bush 39% Kerry 57%
SurveyUsa 10/15-15 McCain 35 Obama 59
Among Hispanics in CA: McCain 22% Obama 70% !!!
The Hispanic community in the West is strongly behind Sen. Obama. This community is key in CO, NV, NM.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:24 PM
good point. Do voters in the west generally trend in the same direction?
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:29 PM
Have any of you heard the latest howler from Palin?
"According to the Washington Post, Gov. Sarah Palin "made a point of mentioning that she loved to visit the 'pro-America' areas of the country, of which North Carolina is one. No word on which states she views as unpatriotic."
Wouldn't be great to have a president that talked like that?
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:30 PM
@jonny87, you said "carl29,sunnymi,
this is not good news. if the blue states are going bluer but the nationals are stalling..."
That would be true if Obama's lead in battleground states goes down as well....so far there is no evidence of that from the state polling or the trackers.
This is great news! For JOHN McCAIN!!!
Combined with today's SUSA Florida poll, John McCain now has 18-22% of the African American vote, up from 8-11% in state polls at the start of the week. If this trend continues John McCain will have 2/3 of the African American vote by election day, putting all sorts of states back into play. This is great news for John McCain!!!
Or it could just be random, due to the small sample of African Americans in both SUSA polls.
I see your point but Obama is doing good in swing states as far as I can tell so all I can deduct is that real red states are going redder as well.
Take a look at Texas's graph for example:
Texas could well make up for Ca in nat'l polls
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:32 PM
Early voting: 19% say they have voted with Obama +21.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:33 PM
CA Kerry 68, Bush 30
CO Kerry 68, Bush 30
NM Kerry 56, Bush 44
NV Kerry 60, Bush 39
can anyone explain the difference in how the latino vote broke?
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:35 PM
Gee, it's not so long ago we were being told that Latinos would never vote for Obama because they voted for HRC in the primary. Ah, good times.
Thank you :-) The Hispanic community has historically been a reliable Democratic constituence; however, in 2004 Bush made inroads among this group, which costed Kerry more than one state, think of NM and FL.
Now, thank God Hispanics realized that there is no place for our community in the Republican party. The way Republicans kicked us around during the inmigration debate was just shameful. We are people full of pride, treat us bad and we will remember. I said it all along that Hispanics will be strongly behind Obama because of the way Republicans slapped us in the face 2 years ago.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:37 PM
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:38 PM
Froggy OMG did you really just make that post. You ****ING MORON.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:39 PM
UPCOMING ON THE TRAIL
Obama in VA
Biden in NM & NV
Jill Biden in MO
Hillary in OH
McCain in FL
Palin in OH & IN
Obama in MO
Biden in CA
Jill Biden in MO
McCain in NC & VA
Palin in PA
Cindy McCain in PA
Obama in NC
Biden in WA
Jill Biden in MO
Bill Clinton in NV
McCain in OH
Palin in NM
Cindy McCain in PA
Obama in FL
Biden in CO
Hillary in FL
Bill Clinton in NV
McCain in MO
Palin in CO
Cindy McCain in PA
Obama in FL
Biden in CO
Hillary in MN
Palin in NV
Biden in CO
Kerry in IA
McCain in NH
Palin in MO
1) Obama is taking no state for granted.
2) McCain has all but conceded IA, MN, and WI; but he stubbornly clings to the hope that he can flip PA and/or NH.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:40 PM
Mccain is moving away in Texas due to two ARG polls, and they can spit out some crazy numbers sometimes. Which other red states are getting redder???
Hard to really compare. California is sort of it's own universe, but I tend to lump it in with Washington and Oregon. To me, Nevada is somewhere in the direction of Colo., Ariz., and New Mexico.
New Mexico might be the best comparison as Colo. has gone Dem only a couple of times in recent history and Ariz. fairly conservative. Both have just a couple of population centers, while the rest of the state is rural. Significant mining/natural resources extraction industries. Land use and gun rights are always issues. As a result, while both states have split congressional delegations.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:41 PM
Conservative talk show host in Philly (and former Bush 41 appointee)endorses Obama!
Chicago Tribune also endorses Obama. The first time in their history to ever endorse a Dem!
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:45 PM
By that standard Ca is not getting that bluer either, it is just this outlier that gives the BigO a lead more than 20 in Ca.
Although I concur with you about red states. I didnt find that many red states getting redder.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:46 PM
Washington, OR, and California consist of population centeres that are VERY liberal with a few suburban exceptions. The rural areas of both states, EAST of the mountain ranges, are VERY low populated.
Bandwaggon has lots of room.. more to jump in on Sunday.
at least half the hispanics in florida seem like there willing to give the republicans another ago. will younger hispanics in florida break for obama in a similar manner to those in CA or will they follow the voting trends of elder hispanics in FL?
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:47 PM
Cool. Thanx for the link.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:49 PM
Obama has a level of support among Hispanics that could have made Kerry president.
Look at the numbers four years ago, around this same time in Florida:
Among Hispanics in Florida according to SurveyUsa: Bush 59 Kerry 41
*Exit Poll: Bush 56 Kerry 44
Right now, among Hispanics in Florida according to SurveyUsa: McCain 52 Obama 47
Obama is overperforming Kerry among Hispanics regardless of the state. Take into account that Hispanics in Florida are Cubans, and Cubans are OVERWHELMINGLY Republican; however, Obama is about to split this vote, which could be the key for him to carry the state.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:51 PM
i was talking about hispanics. i have noticed a few polls showing obamas western hispanic support at 70% and i was wondering if this is likely to be reflected in every western state. the 2004 exits suggests this may not neccessarily be the case.
haha, i take your point.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:52 PM
Micheal has always been one of my favorite conservatives. He's NOT an asshole and gives his opinion without getting nasty.
Welcome Michael. You've made an excellent choice for President of the United States.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:53 PM
Take a look at this page, the Hispanic column. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY5.htm
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:54 PM
God is the sky falling for the GOP today or what? Say what you want about ENDORSEMENTS but when they are some of your popular conservative papers, talk show hosts, generals, etc. You're screwed. It goes to show REASONABLE people are realizing the GOP needs to disappear for a few years and come back as a reasonable party.
Posted on October 17, 2008 4:56 PM
thanks for the link, but...obamas gained 22 points with hispanics in five days, i find that pretty hard to believe.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:02 PM
The Chicago Tribune endorsement is the first time they've endorsed a Democrat for president in the history of the paper -- 161 years.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:04 PM
Hispanics eventually come home. The Democratic Party is the home of the great majority of Hispanics, except for Cubans in Miami.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:06 PM
The RACIST BILL**** isn't playing well with anyone of color. GOOD JOB GOP.
WA Post? The Trib? Another Bush appointee? IF CP delivers on Sunday - the Media talk will be about who will jump ship next.
PS the DC scuttlebut is someone in current cabinet would give her opinion if asked and is therefore being kept away from those who might ask. Hint - hint - who hasn't made a press appearance in a few weeks?
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:07 PM
Hey remember at the end of primary all Super delegate demos moved quickly to obama to finish up the primary. I guess that will happen now rapidly moving towards obama (all big news papers, other big guys, so on)
I don't understand Cubans in Miami. You'd think LOGIC would tell you that if the US IMPOROVED relations with Cuba it would only be beneficial to their countrymen. Odd.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:08 PM
are young cubans open to democrats?
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:10 PM
@PortlandRocks, your opinion on Michael Smerconish matches with mine :-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:22 PM
My understanding of Miami cubans is that they want Castro deposed not brought into the fold. Remember most of them were forced here when he took power and have never gotten over it. I'm sure that they see the pubs policies as an attempt to get rid of Castro, where they might feel that the Dems are trying to legitimize him.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:24 PM
Palin throws away $40 million in negative advertising:
Says Obama loves America.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:26 PM
My very own opinion? I don't think that there are enough of them. If there are some Cubans open to the Democrats, it most probable be Cuban-inmigrants arrived in the 80's and 90's. I don't think that the children of the old Cubans are willing to vote Democrat.
If the Democrats are having an opening it is for Hispanics like me who are not Cuban. More and more Central Americans, South Americans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans are moving to Florida and re-shaping the face of the Hispanic community of the state.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:28 PM
CO: O 52 M 45
NV: O 50 M 45
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:29 PM
can non cuban hispanics be expected to vote in a similar manner to hispanics in the west?
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:31 PM
There's a growing generational disconnect between the older and younger Cubans. THe older Cubans had a personal score to settle with Castro (he stole from them what they had rightfully stolen from someone else). The younger Cubans are no longer ex-patriots, but rather simply Americans, and Americans of an identifiable ethnic group (and therefore potentially subject to ethnic discrimination.) The younger Cubans are growing to have more in common with Mexican-Americans, African Americans, and just plain Yuppies, than with their grandparents who are still fighting an imaginary war with Fidel.
Hanity's show tonight will focus on the tighting of the polls. He is saying the race is alot closer than polls are showing.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:32 PM
No poll has shown McCain tied or leading in CO since 10/1. McCain has not had a tie or lead in NV since 9/29. These are two more states that he has to turn around before Nov. 4.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:36 PM
Yes, I think that the majority of non-cuban hispanics will vote Democrat.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:37 PM
I think McCain's road to 270 just exited onto the Bridge to Nowhere.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:39 PM
Bush won 18% AA in 2004. One would project McCain would win less in 2008.
You are so accurate with the description of old Cubans, darn right my friend :-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:42 PM
What's the assumed voter turn out of the national polls? I mean if it's over 60% we could be in for a rude awakening on election night. If we're all assuming that turnout will be over 60% and that's giving Obama such a pop in the polls, what if it's more like around 58% turnout? What happens then?
I don't like these polls. I think they are assuming way too much of an Obama advantage.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:43 PM
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:46 PM
looking at florida demographics (thanks wiki) the hispanic population is growing pretty quickly. is this due to a lot of non cuban hispanics filtering in then?
All your questions will be answered on Nov.4th :-) Good things come to those who wait!!
Yes, Yes, Yes!!! Thank God more of us, non-cuban hispanics, are moving to Florida, and in so doing we are helping to break the power that Cubans have had since the early 60's.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:48 PM
No, my question could be answered now. What is the assumed turnout being used in the polls?
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:50 PM
maddiekat please keep your sexual fantasy to yourself.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:51 PM
In the Orlando area live thousands of Puerto Ricans, it's like little "Puerto Rico." Here in Miami there is a good Central American community and Dominican community. Recently, Venezuelans, Colombians, Brazilians, Argentinians have moved to Miami, but I don't think that too many of the are US citizens yet. So, put Puerto Ricans, Central Americans, and Dominicans in the Democratic column.
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:52 PM
Send an email to each pollster and ask them or ask Mark Blumenthal :-)!!!!
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:53 PM
From the Politico:
"Many state and local election officials expect turnout in the Nov. 4 presidential election to exceed that of 2004, when voter turnout hit 61 percent — which was the highest level since 1968, according to the Center for the Study of the American Electorate. "
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:55 PM
every pollsters using different models with different polls i imagine...
SUSA had crazy dem turnout for OH, but poor turnout for dems (and AAs) in FL
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:56 PM
nearly one year ago 10/23/2007:
Guliani 32 %
Thompson 15 %
McCain 13 %
Clinton 48 %
Obama 17 %
Edwards 13 %
Posted on October 17, 2008 5:59 PM
southern angler so cute! If Hanity says so it must be tightening. In the meantime, Obama up Colorado by 7 per REPUBLICAN pollster, Rasmussen. Up 5 in NV! Up 6 in MO. But yah, it's close!
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:07 PM
I guess Obama better hope there's high turnout.
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:11 PM
From 95-5 to 100-0 is what is going to happen. You watch, my friends, AAs don't take too kindly to racism (I know, how crazy is that?). They will make mccain pay. In addition, it also turns off other sane people of all persuasions - especially other minorities.
Kinda sad when your base is a bunch of knuckle-dragging KKK members(or sympathizers)......
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:12 PM
"Hanity's show tonight will focus on the tighting of the polls. He is saying the race is alot closer than polls are showing."
November 4th show will focus on showing how much closer to a permanent residence with rubber walls Hannity is than showing.
Hey, speaking of Faux News, why did Brit Hume quit last night? *giggles and grins*
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:13 PM
i think 95+ is quite realistic
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:18 PM
I'm going to have pollster up on my PC and Fox News on my TV on Nov 4th. lol! Watching Sean Hannity's face is going to be priceless! :)
btw, is this the husband MNlatte or the wife MNlatte?
I think Sean Hannity is probably right, though I've never laid eyes on his show. But he seems to maybe be right that it's a lot closer than it seems. If it weren't why would Barack be out there imploring Democrats to not let victory slip away and talking about fighting to to the finish. I think Obama knows its a hell of a lot closer than it seems but doesn't want to say it. But his actions and his words are code for holy crap this is gonna be close so don't forget to vote for me.
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:19 PM
Gosh the trolls are sooo quiet today! Isn't it funny that their mouths run with the news!
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:20 PM
Hey guys, Boomshak must be crying over all the money he lost on intrade. Some idiot was trying to manipulate the price and lost a small fortune.
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:21 PM
Obama will say it is close and act like it is close no matter what...he is going to want as big a turnout as possible. Likewise, Sean Hannity will keep insisting it is close too to convince Repubs to show up.
If one candidate was up by 20, both sides would still be claiming it's neck and neck. From an electoral college standpoint, I don't see how it is.
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:22 PM
Oregon: Research 2000 for Daily Kos (D), 10/14-15 (9/22-24)
Obama 53 (53)
McCain 38 (39)
n/c Obama, -1 McCain = 1 Point Obama Swing
Kerry won the state by 4.1% in 2004.
Tell me about one single politician who doesn't encourage his or her supporters to come out to vote? LOL!!!
The guy wants to win as many states as he can, and the key is to get everybody out. Isn't fun? This is what the meaning of campaigning is!!!
*I rather have the polls showing the race close because that way Democrats will come out in huge numbers and the Republicans will be screaming on election night :-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:24 PM
I will be with my the laptop on the living room table, the TV on MSNBC-flipping to Fox, and the radio on "Radio Mambi," the most Cuban/Republican radio in Miami; it is full of old Republican Cubans that will be literally crying, sweet :-)!!!
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:28 PM
C'mon, 1503er. You know that high polls for Obama can possibly lead to overconfidence, and then to depressed voter turnout. That could be devastating in 11/4. Obama does NOT want his people to slack off. So he's taking his own initiative in warning people to keep working. Very wise move.
Intrade - Whoa. I think boomshak once mentioned that some guy put down $14,000 for McCain at intrade. Maybe it's the same guy. And look what that brought him: losses in the hundreds of thousands. Huh? Who has hundreds of thousands to throw away? Now I'm reminded of Obama's allegedly bad "spread the wealth" comment. Our republican financial crisis has left many U.S. citizens with NO wealth. So maybe they might actually WANT to have some wealth spread to them, huh?...So just look at this guy. If this idiot is just wasting his hundreds of thousands, maybe it would be better to spread HIS wealth around, to us? :-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:30 PM
husbandLatte, sorry :))
wife does not post here. she wastes none of her Franken/Obama energies on pollster :), wise woman that she is.
id much rather watch hannity cry
In addition to the presidential race, we also have 3 Democrats challenging the inept Republican congresists in the Miami area.
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:31 PM
IN Portland it's probably a 40 PLUS point Obama lead. OR up around 14 sounds about right living here with all the rural areas around the state.
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:34 PM
@carl29 and kerrchdavis,
I probably won't be here on the 4th - we are having an election party at our house with a bunch of fellow pinko libbers with whom we've been working on various campaigns since 2006. I plan to be celebrating quite heavily for both Obama and Franken. Obama's coattails have even brought Tinklenberg within MOE of Bachmann in MN CD6, which is the reddest damn district in the 3 state area.
I will try to check pollster now and then, but i might be as coherent as October boomshack.
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:35 PM
Latest Colorado poll:
O - 52%
M - 45%
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:39 PM
SWING STATE NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:42 PM
Why is Pollster slacking today? TWO HUGE Rasmussen polls and no mention.
roflmao! I hear ya :)
really? I could have sworn she was on here before, for some reason. Thats ok, you're awesome enough ;)
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:45 PM
That's cool :-) Good for you!
I won't have the chance to go to a party because a) the kids have school the next morning b) my husband is working at night that day- you know how lazy libs are- so I will be here waiting for him
*I've suggested to give his students a take-home assignment or something to substitute for that day's lecture. Let's see if he does it :-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:46 PM
@kerrchdavis and carl29
well, you kids are pretty awesome yourselves.
i will share a funny bit about my wife in re the elections. first, you got to picture a raven haired goddess who wears peace earrings, peace sign neckelace/pendant, lucky brand peace t-shirts of all kinds, k, 'nough said. so this peace loving woman would not have our friends over for any of the 4 debates, though they've asked.
her reason: "i don't EVER want anyone i know to see me LIKE THAT!" Let's just say she gets very animated when McCain speaks. LMAO.
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:53 PM
Sure, it's closer than it seems, kinda like the '96 election. Which was still a blowout.
Posted on October 17, 2008 6:56 PM
That's so funny :-) You sounds like a trip guys! I remember a girl from MN I met back in my home country, Nicaragua. She is(was) so nice. I think the at the time I met her she was a student in University of Albuquerque, NM. A very nice "gringa."
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:00 PM
Newspaper endorsements don't mean anything, but I have a question.
I am a minority, and I have a question to white women. No matter what your party or choice of candidate. How can you sit back and watch what the media has done to Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin? To me it is absolutely digusting. I have lost so much respect for so many people in this election, it's really sad. I understand wanting to see someone who you like elected, but this has just gone too far.
Unfortunately, I look at white women who support Barack Obama with so little respect now. Not b/c of their support for Obama, but the lengths they go to destroy his white female opponents. As this country continues to move to minority-majority status, it sort of sad it a way to see a race crumble before my eyes. Let's be honest, I know people in my race who can't wait to have the white race on their knees...no matter if they are Democrats are not. Apparently they are getting their wish a lot sooner than expected.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:06 PM
Batony, I will praying for you. God bless your heart.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:13 PM
anyone else watching this idiot Bachmann, on Chris Matthews/Hardball? "anti-American leftist liberals". She is our Representative, if that gives you any idea what kind of national embarrassment we live in here.
Another one is the moronic "Obama is an Arab" dildo from McCain Lakeville rally who was spoofed last night on SNL.
I hang my head in shame. This is our allegedly liberal Minnesota.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:16 PM
Obama in FL
Biden in CO
Hillary in MN & Omaha
Palin in NV
Obama in WI (?)
Biden in CO
Kerry in IA
Michelle Obama in FL (?)
McCain in NH
Palin in MO (?)
Obama in WI
Palin in NC (?)
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:17 PM
What does being a liberal mean to you? I thought I was one when I was in college...but I figured out I really wasn't.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:21 PM
Yes, she is a sad, scary case. I so sick of the "if you're not conservative you are not American" crap.
YEAH ANYONE KNOW ABOUT POLS ON CAL BALLOT MEASURES? Prop 8 for instance... that is the only drama left in the CA election.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:24 PM
Whoever this woman Katrina is from the Nation, I love her. We are sitting here fuming just like Katrina was and the woman from Obama campaign.
Bachmann IS a fascist. A right wing American fascist who is out there blaming minorities for the financial meltdown. She just got two more letters and another $100 donation to her opponent with another day's worth of door knocking commitment next week.
If this report holds up it is the death knell of the McCain campaign.
"Barack Obama has taken a slight lead with white independent voters for the first time in the presidential race, positioning him to capture a key demographic group that has eluded recent Democratic nominees, according to a Politico analysis of independent voting patterns.
According to Gallup’s weekly average of some 6,400 registered voters, Obama now holds a 45 percent-43 percent edge over Republican John McCain with white independents. About eight in 10 independents are white.
Should Obama’s support hold, he is positioned to become the first Democrat to win white independents in a two-man race since the advent of exit polling."
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:25 PM
Yeah, I like her too. She's on the Sunday shows from time to time. She usually represents us well.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:28 PM
"What does being a liberal mean to you? "
batony, based on your remarks above in re governor Palin, I believe that no reasonable discussion with you on philosophical subtleties is possible. i hope calr29 is capable of an ardent and fervent prayer, because nobody on this Earth can help you, imho. have a nice day.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:29 PM
That report will not hold true.
White liberals still think it's the 1960's. People like myself are trying to lift my race up, to be responsible, get an education, etc....then what happens you have white liberals making excuses for them. What's so funny is that even MINORITIES know we have some blame in the current financial crisis...this country will never have racial healing. Never.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:31 PM
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:32 PM
I think that your priority right now is not RACIAL healing but SPIRITUAL healing :-)
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:36 PM
As I mentioned on another thread, likely voter percentages can't really be interpreted as a prediction of turnout. Again, pollsters know that not everyone in their likely voter pool will actually make it to the polls on Election Day, but they have no way of knowing who to remove from the pool. Accordingly, their hope is that the people who end up not showing are spread out more or less proportionately between the candidates.
And yes, sometimes they get that wrong, in which case their polls are off.
The response was expected from you...of course we cannot have a discussion b/c you are always right...b/c you are a liberal. What a sham.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:37 PM
"I am a minority, and I have a question to white women."
That is supposed to give you credibility? What a liar! White men are a minority jerkoff! After all the hate we have seen at these Republican rallies you got the nerve to claim victim status for Palin? McCain doesn't give a crap about women's rights. The choice of Palin was 100% PANDERING and you know it.
You have lost respect for women that support Obama? I got news for you pal. YOU NEVER HAD MY RESPECT AND NEVER WILL...jerkoff
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:39 PM
You probably don't want to go there with me. I'm against abortion b/c my of my spirituality...what about you?
As a "White liberal" that lived through the 60's I can tell you this certainly isn't the 60's. I don't really need you to speak for me. Judging by your comments, you don't seem to want racial healing.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:40 PM
The response was expected from you...of course we cannot have a discussion b/c you are always right...b/c you are a liberal."
batony, wrong again.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:41 PM
Although some of the criticisms of Palin floating around the fringe are worthy of condemnation, the fact is there are perfectly legitimate reasons to think that she should not be our backup President, and indeed that McCain's choice of Palin reflects extremely poorly on him as well. And as I have stated before, I see no reason to want to put a person like Palin into the position of being our backup President just to spite her most offensive critics.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:43 PM
Here is the link to Rep. Bachmann (spit) on Chris Matthews/Hardball.
Guaranteed to raise your blood pressure by at least 20 points. Welcome back, Joseph Goebbels McCarthy. We've come so far, and yet seemlingly at times, nowhere at all.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:45 PM
Everyone around here knows that I am pro-life. I am more Conservative than a lot of people here. I believe in God of course, father, son, and the Holy spirit. I believe in the santity of marriage. I belive that life begins at conception. I believe in the second coming of Jesus Christ. Bottom line: I am more or less a fundamental christian who happens to be a Democrat, a proud Democrat. No party will decide what should I believe in, that's between I and my Lord. God Bless you, Batony :-)
Politifact has today published their findings on the ACORN controversy and Obama's connection to the organization:
Despite what Senator McCain says, this sure doesn't sound like "one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country" to me...
Thought I'd post the link in case anyone wants spread the word, although I'm sure the right-wingers continuing to spread the lies don't have much use for facts unless they agree with the narrative they're pushing.
Hanity's show tonight will focus on the tighting of the polls. He is saying the race is alot closer than polls are showing."
And we should care what Sean Insanity thinks, WHY, exactly?
It's hilarious to see all the sane, non-wacko/non-evangelical-extremist conservatives and libertarians running away from McCain in droves. I really hope the good, honest conservatives are able to take back control of their party from this lunatic fringe, known as the religious right and the neocons, after this November. I'll still disagree with them on a whole host of issues, but at least they can debate with honor and class instead of with cheap shot personal attacks in an attempt to play on peoples fears and to suppress the vote.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:46 PM
carl29, don't you know that that is just "not Christian enough"?
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:47 PM
Well said. There used to be a time when it was actually fun to debate politics. Sadly that is no longer the case.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:49 PM
I'm sorry but I just don't see what has happened to the white women of this election that is so much different from what happens to any candidate when they run for public office.
All candidates are ultimately targeted by smear campaigns, negative attacks, public criticism etc. The press has every right to question Palin's credentials. You cannot..CANNOT interview that poorly and show such a clueless understanding for important policies and not expect to be condemned for it. The MSM reports on things that are dramatic and controversial. If there is any truth to the notion that Obama has not been attacked by the MSM (he has e.g Wright etc) it's because his history has been relatively clean AND because he has gone to a lot of trouble to avoid drama. In fact, Batony, when Obama was putting together his campaign advisers and staff 2 years ago, he expressed to them that he was not interested in anyone that was going to be overly dramatic.
As for Hilary, I honestly honestly feel like she ran a much more negative campaign than Obama did. I truly believe that while being as impartial as I can be. And I think the most telling thing about Hilary has been her conduct since she lost: she was a hell of a fighter and poured her soul into her campaign and now she is fighting tooth and nail to get Barack Obama elected. This is not the conduct of a person who feels like she was severely wronged, betrayed, cheated etc. She knows that there is too much at stake in this election to let McCain win and if you truly respect her viewpoints, her stance on the issues (which is what this is all about) and appreciate how hard she is fighting, you would support Barack Obama just as she is today.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:51 PM
MNlatteliberal...yeah, I imagine that for some, my christianity is in doubt because I am a Democrat. My answer is, my Lord doesn't belong to any political party; He is to great, Perfect, and Honorable for politics.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:53 PM
Katrina van den Heuvel (sp?) edits The Nation and has been around for a long time. She's one of the smartest people you'll find on TV, or anywhere else in the media, IMHO.
BTW Seen any "Baroque Obama" t-shirts (not the crappy one from Cafe Press) in your neck of the woods? Just curious, since your wife's a t-shirt fan. A bunch of musicians in MN brought them back from the Oregon Bach Festival this summer. Pretty funny.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:55 PM
To Batony, who wonders how women can stand the MSM parodying Palin.
Well, as a woman I do. I think Palin embodies a good portion of what's wrong with the repub base - the intolerance, distain for the disciplined excellence of mind, lack of any curiosity for what's going on in the world and throughout the history, contempt for diversity in views and opinions, the crazy snuffing of science ---- You get the idea.
If any politician aspiring to occupy highest level of the national office thinks it's a virtue to be ignorant, she or he deserves to be parodied to the Nth degree. It's not a man or woman issue.
If anything, your sentiment that woman should support a woman regardless of how disagreeable that woman's qualifications and opinions are IS truly sexist.
Palin is NOT being paroied by the main stream media because she is a woman. She is parodied because of her ignorance and stupidity so unbefitting her ambition to occuy the powerful (in case McCain dies) position in the world!
By the way, I have seen plenty of cruel parodies of Qayle and Bush. So, there!
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:56 PM
I am a white female who used to support Hillary. The night she lost in Iowa, I cried. As a strong career woman who happens to be a feminist, I am disgusted and outraged by the MSM treatment of Palin.
This woman is a joke and the pundits in the media are too soft on her. She cannot possibly even hold a position of any significance in corporate America. She is an idiot and I am ashamed that she is the second female VP nominee of a major party in this country.
You need to calm down. Don't be dumb. At what rally Sarah Palin rally have you been to where you have "seen hate"? Looks like you are the liar. Of course no one has called Ms. Palin names at an Obama rally...get real.
So McCain was pandering...but the Democratic Party was not pandering b/c Obama was the most qualified? Talking about no credibility.
Posted on October 17, 2008 7:58 PM
Here's some hate from a Sarah Palin rally.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:02 PM
No matter what your party or choice of candidate. How can you sit back and watch what the media has done to Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin? To me it is absolutely digusting. I have lost so much respect for so many people in this election, it's really sad. I understand wanting to see someone who you like elected, but this has just gone too far."
The media didn't do anything to Sarah Palin. Since when is vetting a candidate "disgusting." You seem to be okay with it whenever it's Obama or Biden being one's "attacked."
And I don't know, maybe women actually care about issues important to their lives such as jobs, health care, and college affordability. Maybe women have seen their life savings disappear in a matter of 2 weeks. Maybe women don't want people like John McCain telling them what they can and cannot do with their body, or somebody in office who will charge their teenage daughters for a rape kit because of the disgusting actions of another human being. Maybe they don't want to vote for a man who OPPOSED Equal Pay for Equal Work for Women, as well as the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday.
There is no rule that says you have to vote for somebody because the media "unfairly" treated a candidate that happens to share the same set of genitals as you. I voted for Hillary Clinton in the primary, and despite whatever sick jokes right wing ASSHOLES like Rush Limbaugh and John "The reason Chelsea Clinton is so ugly is because Janet Reno is her father" McCain may say, I'm pretty sure Hillary and I don't share the same genitals.
I can think of a LOT of reasons why women this November will vote for the Obama/Biden ticket. I can't think of one reason why they would vote for McCain/Palin.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:03 PM
@Basil, no but shhhhhhhhhhhh! Though she does not post, she reads pollster. LOL.
To give you an idea, there we were @ RNC protesting. I made this great banner sign 30"x40"
that showed a GOP elephant with the following equation: GOP El = WMD. There were four of us middle aged farts in the sea of youth and grandmothers and grandfathers on the mall of the State Capitol listening to Michael Franti, arguing with the GOP convention delegates, marching...and all the meanwhile she is buying really cute Code Pink shirts and Obamawear.
Same thing during the two Obama visits to MN. We are standing in line for 3 hours and she is passing the time shipping for Obamawear in just the right color/design the entire time. I mean, the line DRAGGED ON forever for me, but to her it was a glimpse.
That's what happens when liberals become successful and wealthy, I guess. LOL
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:06 PM
Excuse me??? Obama's nomination of Democrats' pandering to what??? Besides, what was EACH democratic primary voter pandering to??? To themselves??? Please, don't make me laugh.
I believe Obama was nominated not because he is black, but in spite of the fact that he is black.
By the way, I was originally a Hillary supporter. Only one in my family. My husband and older son supported Obama from the beginning. My younger son still supports McCain (good thing he is too young to vote).
I think Democrats this year were much fortunate to have two such good choices.
By the way, I also liked/respected McCain until he chose Palin. When he did that, I realized that he was just pandering to the extreme elements of his party and put the country in jeopardy. I am truly disappointed in him. He sold his soul to the devil to get elected no matter what.
Listen up guys: If you look for Batony's previous statements, you will find that he or she has raised "concerns" or "issues" about race quite frequently. Get the picture? I don't think this is anything to argue about guys. Leave him or her alone :-) God Bless You Batony.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:11 PM
OK, sorry. :-) I'll shut up.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:17 PM
"even MINORITIES know we have some blame in the current financial crisis...this country will never have racial healing. Never."
How uninformed can one person be? The rate of default for subprime borrowers were the same for each major ethnicity: black, white, and hispanic. Roughly 19% of subprime borrowers of each ethnic group defaulted on their mortgage. Race had nothing to do with it. Subprime mortgage defaults are only a portion of total foreclosures. The problem has to do with a rising foreclosure rate among all mortgages and decreasing home values. The institutions that manipulated home prices and falsely worked income requirements on home loans are to blame for the current crisis. The land developers, the banks, the home flippers, the hedge fund managers, and all the greedy speculators are to blame for the current crisis as well as the current administration that borrowed money to wage a war and allowed gasoline prices to shoot through the roof. Notice, I didn't mention race when talking about who's to blame. It has nothing to do with race. I live in master planned community where the houses cost around $600,000 to $2 million dollars. Retirees are moving out in droves because their investments have taken a hit and they can no longer afforf to live here. The cities that have been hit the hardest are not in urban areas where many minorities live. They're in industrial areas where unemployemt is high or in expensive areas such as CA, FL, AZ, or NV where speculators and developers pushed prices sky high. You can say whatever you like about the lending practices of Freddie and Fannie but in a couple of weeks history will be rewritten. In the US, truth has a way of making it into the pages of history. Maybe, this is the result of having a free press. The only exception to this is the perception of former Presidents. We tend to glorify them regardless of their record in office. Case in point, not many history books have asserted that Ronald Reagan was a bad President even though deficit spending went through the roof and his administration extended the recession.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:19 PM
same here. my wife were some of the earliest Hillary supporters out there. we donated $100 to her NY Senate campaign early on (and she has a Marc Jacobs Hillary shirt to prove it too :)).
We respected McCain until:
1) me - until the 1st Republican straw poll in 2006
2) her - until he came after Kerry twisting latter's words about American troops serving in Iraq.
We differ on our take on Palin as it pertains to McCain. I am grateful to McCain for picking her because it ensures us the coattails to hopefully bring in Dem. replacements for the likes of Rep. Bachmann and Sen. Coleman here in MN. With any luck, the latter will push us to 60 needed in Senate. imho, that would be a lot tougher without Palin.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:21 PM
Of course, McCain has consistently tried to paint Obama as clueless, an empty suit, just a talented speaker, just a "celebrity", and so forth. As in fact Clinton did before McCain.
But the comparison with Palin breaks down because Obama has gone before the American people over and over again and simply proved first Clinton and then McCain wrong. Palin, on the other hand, couldn't do that, and now has given up even trying.
So, no, Palin isn't the same as Obama.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:22 PM
watched the Bachmann interview ... WOW .... it is the old Bush/Rove/Cheney thing about if you disagree with ME then your a terist. It is amazing but I am used to it because I live in AZ and we have/had Kyl, Shadegg, Hayworth. McCain was not too bad in 2000 ..... but he sold out starting a couple years ago .... blind ambition?
watched the Bachmann interview ... WOW .... it is the old Bush/Rove/Cheney thing about if you disagree with ME or my view of the world, then your a terrorist and/or un-American. It is amazing but I am used to it because I live in AZ and we have/had Kyl, Shadegg, Hayworth. McCain was not too bad in 2000 ..... but he sold out starting a couple years ago .... blind ambition?
Don't drink the Kool-Aid Republicans and maybe you can get back to the politics Ike believed in.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:24 PM
@liz from NJ
I could not have said it any better (and I even tried)! lol :)
I guess a feminine touch to a question about sexism is simply more powerful
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:30 PM
I'm beginning to believe that America has tired of the "guy or gal next door" as being a suitable person to put in the White House. The last eight years has seen a good education trashed as being "elitist". It isn't a crime to read a book or two along the way either!
America wants a smart, intelligent, curious person as President. This year it's Obama. He proved in the debates that he is thoughtful, well-read, and considerate.
Folk, my friends, guys and gals, y'all better get used to the idea.
BRAINS ARE BACK!!
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:32 PM
As I mentioned just a second ago, I used to respect McCain before he did that "let's thank President Bush" invocation pandering to the right during the 1st GOP straw poll of the season. We lived in Tucson for four long years in the end of the '80s, and I remember McCain as a decent, honorable man, a sharp contrast to then Gov. Meecham. That, despite then current Keating 5.
And you are right on about Bachmann. Back in 2006 we campaigned for Patty Wetterling, who tried to fight Bachmann evil with white gloves one. Didn't work. Bachmann brought in Karl Rove, Dick Cheney and then dubya to fund raise for her. Despicable.
The ironic thing is, in the horribly gerrymandered CD6 both she and us live on the eastern-most fringe of the district, where she LOST. That's right, she lost at home, and won where ppl didn't know who she was and what she represented. Back way before she grew up into a congresswoman we defeated her for the local school board: she does not believe in public education AND her husband runs one of those counseling services for gays that "cure" their homosexuality.
If she wins this year, god forbid, I am starting my own counseling service that gays up straights with similar treatments. I might be too straight, but thankfully, I have some gay friends, and I am pretty good at writing proposals for funding.
Sorry about the rambling, but I am still fuming here.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:33 PM
This is what is called a "non sequiter" - if the polls do not indicate a "tightening" they would have to be explained away. That is what Hannity is doing. He's going to explain away some polls and ignore the flaws or that the others could (and probably are) statistical "random walk". Any seven polls will have four above/below the mean. Which means that shifts w/in the MOE can create movement of the mean quite easily. Half the time they'll be up, half down.
It's only when you have consistent shifts upward or downward within polling methologies, or repeated direction changes that one is assured of reliability.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:36 PM
Obama - 50
McCain - 45
Obama - 52
McCain - 45
Nevada to go blue soon ... Colorado, dark blue !!
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:41 PM
Here's a poll on Bachmann's efforts to be re-elected!
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:43 PM
Thanks for the link.
Yeah, the previous less publicized poll had Bachmann 40 to El's 27. The more she talks in public, the more he closes the gap. We backed Bob Olson in the primaries, and are sorry he lost. He would not be this civil with evil. That was Patty Wettherling's mistake.
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:49 PM
I'll be very surprised if Nevada doesn't go blue. There is great economic angst there and many blue collar workers to whom Obama has effectively campaigned. Nevada is a dramatically changing state - my sense is it is going to be quite blue for hopefully a long time.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:10 PM
Any chance the good folks at pollster.com could throw in an "open thread" now and then? People seem to have a lot to say ...
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:12 PM
did anyone see congresswoman Michelle Bachman on hardball today? very frightening. she basically associates liberalism with anti american feelings. she basically said shes in favor of a witch hunt to see what liberal public servants are "anti american"... and shes a congresswoman...
and people are afraid of obama? sheesh...
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:24 PM
just landed in Vegas got in a cab and the cabbie white and in his 60's starting telling the who "business is down, people aren't coming,blah balh blah" then he tells me you know i haven't voted since I voted for Perot in 1992 this year I'm voting for Obama and he's voting early since Nevada changed the election law this year.
THat made my day whate male over 60 not traditional democrat voting Obama.
Let's turn NV Blue
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:35 PM
If Bachmann is all about anti american feelings, what will she make of this?
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:36 PM
lol she was pretty tame on Larry King
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:49 PM
E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post on NPR this afternoon:
"McCain needs to do four things to win this election. Unfortunately, no one knows what those are." :)
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:04 PM
wasn't that Tina Fey?
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:17 PM
Caught the Bachmann interview live. Kind of funny - really caught Matthews by surprise. He didn't really know what to do. I don't think he could believe an elected official would actually say something like that.
It all goes to a much broader point, though. This is the most despicable campaign ever run in history. The things coming out of the McCain camp are just indefensible. I know you want to win, but how about keeping a little of that honor and respect you earned, Mr. McCain. If I wasn't so furious watching you reduce the greatest thing about a democratic society - the election of our leaders - to such a despicable display of hate, I would actually feel sorry for you. But I don't. I supported you and voted for you in 2000 against the evil empire - George Bush. You despised him then for his dirty politics and his cowardice. Look at what you have become. Was it worth it? You, sir, are the very reason I am no longer a registered republican.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:20 PM
CALIFORNIA!?!?! Why I Oughta!
How about a poll from SC
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:24 PM
Any rumors/leaks about how much money Obama raised in September?
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:27 PM
Question for you guys...Look at these numbers from Intrade. These seem a pretty incredible. Are Obama's chances actually this good?
Arkansas - Obama 25% chance of winning
Missouri - Obama 65% chance of winning
NC - 62%
NH - 91%
CO - 84%
VA - 83%
WV - 45%
I'm optimistic, but these are REALLY optimistic.
It is impossible to know for sure, but those are more or less in line with the estimates from Nate Silver's model at 538.com.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:39 PM
Great thread. Must be a lot of Californians posting. =)
Yes Batony is as transparent as saran wrap. didn't he/she say he/she was from Australia or something? But it's typical right-wing blather. The MSM loves Barack cause he's black, and hates Palin cause she's a woman. Right.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:41 PM
I heard rumors of 100 Million Dollars for the month.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:51 PM
Seems Obama did not drop in Zogby. Drudge did not post it
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:08 PM
Very astute :) I was thinking about the same thing...
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:48 PM
Very nice post, orange24. In the past I kinda liked McCain, I guess 'cause he stood up to W. But in last four years or so he seems to have become a carbon copy of W/Rove/Cheney. Then, when he picked Palin, I lost all respect for the man.
Re: Nevada ...
Several states tend to go with the national winning candidate. With very few exceptions, the following states almost always go with the candidate who wins nationally:
New Mexico, and
Right now, these four states are lined up to go for Obama, a good sign for him.
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:46 AM
I was just looking at some vidios in youtube, it is amazing how well organized Obama´s campaign is in what early voting is concerned. Specially in AA comunity with massive after church voting transportation
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:54 AM
Since this site is probably shut down I guess that my comments are merely a venting of my own frustrations. John McCain was a person I could have voted for. Then he chose Sarah Palin as his running mate. Does anyone care that she was a lifelong member of the Assembly of God until it was politically a liability for her? An individual's personal religious beliefs are protected. I If Sarah believes in the Assembly of God's theology it her own business. My problem is that none of you nincompoops have (including the MSM) bothered to check out what these people really believe. Faith healing ( well no need for health care). Herbert Armstrong is a Prophet. The Book of Revelations is literally true. Do any of you people know that these people are millenialists? John McCain's age and medical history would lead any sane individual to believe that his Vice- President has a better than average chance of taking over for him. Putting the nuclear code books in the hands of someone like Sarah Palin is just insane. God bless America.
Posted on October 18, 2008 12:57 AM
For those interested, here's Fox News's interpretation on the latest batch of polls.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:03 AM
Zogby 48-44 O-1
As much as I love you guys at pollster.com, the site seems to be slow lately on new data. Any chance of speeding up responsiveness and increasing rate of updates?
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:10 AM
zogby now has barack 48 mccain 44
but then again if zogby was right we would be having a john kerry reelection year
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:12 AM
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:25 AM
10/11 Obama 47.6 McC 43.8 Obama+3.8
10/18 Obama 48.3 McC 44.4 Obama+3.9
Not much has changed since last Friday. Wait for it... any minute now.... boomshak will claim that Obama is imploding.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:26 AM
OK, I couldnt help wondering about Zogby's party ID anymore
so I calculated the weighting. Republicans have a higher party ID than
It is a simple 3 unknown, 3 equation.
Based on Zogby's data :
Obama gets 51% of I, 9% of R and 88% of D and his number is 48.3
McSame gets 35% of I, 91% of R and 12% of D and his number is 44.4
so we have
0.51*I + 0.09*R + 0.88 *D = 48.3
0.35*I + 0.91*R + 0.12*D = 44.4
I + R + D = 100
Solve these three and you get:
D = 22%!!
R = 25.8%!!!!
I = 52.2%...
3% More Republicans than Democrats....
Rassmussen party id is
R: 33 D : 39 I : 28
Plug their party id (which is reasonable and based on 10,000 interviewes weekly)
in Zogby's results for Obama(88% DEM, 9% R and 51% I) and
McCain (12%DEM, 91% R amd 35% I) you get:
Obama : 51.6 McSame: 44.5
Very close to Gallups and Rassmussen's numbers...
Read this interesting article about why pollsters like Zogby would'nt mind
their numbers to be Whacky!
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:44 AM
Boom is a GOP plant who lives in NC and has not been the same since his hero Jessie Helms passed away. If you think boom is nuts what about Palin ? ASSEMBLY OF GOD ! Fortunately for you of the Hebrew persuasion - I have good news and bad news. First the good news - You are not going to rot in hell with all the non-believers. The Bad News - you will not be with the rest of us in eternal paradise. A special place has been resereved for you people. Sarah may drop down for a visit now or then. I guess that the best way that I can describe it is like "Limbo". The Assembly of God can not wait for the next coming of their Lord. Put the nuclear code books in the hand of one of their believers (Sister Sarah) and the circle is complete.
Posted on October 18, 2008 1:52 AM
Zogby's website states the following:
"This three-day rolling average of polling now includes nearly two complete 24-hour cycles conducted after the final debate on Wednesday..."
But on his comments on Reuters' website, he says the following:
"Today was the first full sample post-debate and there's a clear indication that McCain is moving up," Zogby said.
Is he trying to spin this or what? Come on now... the debate was on Wednesday, so you must poll on Thur, Fri, AND Sat to get a full post-debate sample!
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:14 AM
OK : I dare any of you to go to the Assembly of God website (Sarah's church until recently) and download their take on "Non-Christian Religions". You poll fanciers should get off your geek butts and realize that that the very existence of our civilization is at stake. If McCain wins and is unable to serve out his term, Sarah is PRESIDENT. She can believe whatever she wants but we can not afford her to get her hands on the nuclear button. The Assembly of God is composed of a bunch of nuts who can not wait for the end of the world. I am really scared.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:43 AM
my question is does zogby realy believe that more republicans are gonna that democrats this year. come on lets be real. i dont trust polls. i think they have an agenda. giving landslide polls result doesnt help news cycles of today who depend on ratings to draw in money. a close race does. epspecially in this 24 hours news world. in realit this race could be over right now for either side
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:49 AM
You are a bunch of clowns. Who cares what Zogby/ Gallup/ Rassmussen says. Get a life you morons. You basically masturbate each other all day long. Sarah Palin could be President. Doesn't this concern any of you? God help us.
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:59 AM
Interesting phenomenon taking place at Elwyn Tinklenberg donation website:
Dude has raised a BOATLOAD of cash since his opponent Michelle "I heart fascism" Bachman was on Harball tonight. There must be a lot of people who don't like her very much.
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:02 AM
It is a polling site..
I agree, Palin as President is scary. Do something about it, donate to Obama. I did. Following these polls is very interesting. This stuff has to be talked about too. After all votes are going to decide. I've been glued to the screen lately.
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:08 AM
Take a chill pill dude. We are doing what ever we can. Mostly donating. The prospect of that Baboon as VP or POTUS is not pleasant for any sensible person but you gotto pull yourself together. Things are going good.
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:13 AM
My personal opinion is that Sarah will never be president for more than a short time, at most. If McCain couldn't complete his term, the Republican Party would step in and tell Sarah she must leave.
Americans, and the rest of the world, would be in an uproar with her as Pres., and the Republican Party itself would be in grave danger. Ergo, she would be asked to resign.
Just my opinion. Hope it calms your nerves a bit. :)
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:24 AM
Thanx for the link. I just gave my share :)
Sorry Rollin : Actually I have contributed to Obama . ( A big $75.00 - or $25 thrice). I realize this is a polling site and you are quite correct for bringing that up. What troubles me about this site is the lack of perception of the big picture. Boom is an obvious GOP plant. I do not care. If you want me to stick to polling data- I would say that Colorado is the key. If Obama wins it he wins ( and the internals - see I can talk polling- seem to indicate that McCain's about-face on immigration has peed off a lot of Hispanics. NH and NM are in the blue column. I think that Obama has an incredible edge. Of course he could still lose - but it is his election to lose. My point is - I could live with McCain as President - I fear for all our safety if -God forbid - something should happen to him and Palin takes over. The majority of the people who post on this site - myself included - seem more concerned with getting an affirmation of their own viewpoint than engaging in an intelligent discussion. Again - I apologize for straying off the topic of this site. You are quite right.
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:32 AM
You can't ask any more from the democrat nomination Obama. Seriously, if you watched him in the last debate.. presidential. He looks like a hollywood cast for the roll. His policies are spot on. We could turn it(economy) around, work on environmental progress, stop invading 3rd world countries.. wouldn't that change our image. How we feel about ourselves and how we look world wide.
Clinton(d)-> good, Bush(R)-> bad, Obama(D)-> good. People would see that pattern and it could change things for years to come.. I wish I saw more + Obama from the last debate in these polls. Just how he looked compared to McCain should have been a wake up call as to who our president should be..
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:39 AM
@rollin : Your spelling and punctuation is worse than mine.
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:45 AM
Hey guys, yeah I totally agree and to be honest I didn't think about it as much as after Common Sense brought that up. Hopefully these #'s keep up for Obama. I'm going to be so glued to the screen election night.
I think (hope) it will be different then 2004 where people where more "against Bush" then for Kerry and didn't get motivated to go vote. Hopefully being "for Obama" (seriously he's "great president" material) will cause more Dems to vote.
Posted on October 18, 2008 3:55 AM
Haha really? Don't get me wrong, I graduated college Magna Cum Laude. I sucked at english classes though. I hope they don't notice at work!
Posted on October 18, 2008 4:00 AM
Sarah Palin is the biggest threat to our Republic since Joe McCarthy. Even though I am seriously out of shape I will challenge anyone to a fistfight who thinks she is qualified to be POTUS. Good night and (well) - Bon Chance.
Posted on October 18, 2008 4:10 AM
I better sign out. To you guys from Portland I see on here, this place is great! Makes you glad to be American. Everyone here is great, I think the nice environment (forests, mountains, beaches) has a positive effect on quality of life or something. G'night guys!
Posted on October 18, 2008 4:13 AM
Thanks man, I ran out and donated as soon as I could. I've seen her repeating the talking points on CNN and MSNBC before but I had no idea she was an actual honest to goodness fascist looking to purge America of an undesirable element.
Bitch is crazy...
Posted on October 18, 2008 4:18 AM
Posted on October 18, 2008 4:48 AM
Lately I have seen very few mentally balanced people from the right on T.V. Probably it is because their wiser guys are smart enough to lay low for a while, and only send the numnuts to TV shows...
Well then again when the Vice Presidential Candidate of a political party believes in witchcraft and is against-evolution, you can't expect much from the rest of them...
Posted on October 18, 2008 5:17 AM
Based on Palin's comments, Pollster you need to revise how you categorize states on your map.
Dark Red = Pro America
Light Red = Leans Pro America
Yellow = Toss-up Between Pro America and Godless Traitors
Light Blue = Leans Anti America
Dark Blue = Gay San Franciso Value Liberal White Flag Waving America Haters
Posted on October 18, 2008 7:19 AM
daily kos 50-43
wed+10, thurs+6, fri+7(49-42)
not a good debate.
obamas support has definetly slipped
Posted on October 18, 2008 7:56 AM
looking at the internals..
dems stable, undecided repulicans have jumped on mccain(as expected) and obamas advantage with white independents has narrowed significantly
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:11 AM
Lets say it altogether now:
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:21 AM
If you are an Obama supporter your kind of a half empty glass kind of dude. With just over 2 weeks to go Obama is clearly 3-5 points ahead nationally, he has McLiar and Pal defending and spewing hate in around 8 red states, and it looks as if McCain would need to win by over 2% ,maybe even more to win the election.
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:27 AM
if polls tighten nationally most 'battleground' states will be off the table. but im hopeful virginia and colorado are a firewall.
'clearly 3-5 points ahead nationally'
but when it was 3 weeks out he was clearly 6-8 points ahead. the movement is not simply mccain gaining undecideds but obama slipping a few points.
to the majority of people obama is still seen as somewhat of a risk and in the debate he did not offer a compelling reason as to why people should take this risk.
mccain had the better of the debate exchanges on the economy, and the 'spread the wealth' comment was a real mistake.
i think obamas campaign is far to cautious and expects that providing there is no dead girl/live boy situation they will stroll home. this may well not be the case.
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:37 AM
I agree. the race tightens considerably over the last 2 weeks - in Popular Vote. Not so much in terms of the EC. In 92' Clinton only won by 5 points.
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:40 AM
You are going to laugh when this an Obama landslide. This is the most brilliant organization ever. Obama could easily lose by 3-4 % and still when the election. Also like every other time they have wanted to change the subject wala hello Gen Powell.
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:45 AM
PS The morons who buy the Joe the plumber crap were already going to vote for McLiar.
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:50 AM
'Obama could easily lose by 3-4 % and still when the election'
im not sure axelrod would be feeling too comfortable if that was the popular vote situation.
im from england so maybe you can shed some light on this...
i know powell holds somewhat of a unique position in the US but i cant see him moving undecideds, merely taking up a few news cycles.
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:51 AM
"3-5 points ahead nationally"
I believe the tracking composite yesterday was about 6.5, son 5-8 is more like it.
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:52 AM
some of them morons would have voted for obama if he demonstrated that he was clearly the man to turn around the economy. i think he won over some of those morons after the second debate, but i think hes lost them now.
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:54 AM
Nate from 538 seem to think Obama had a good day yesterday on both Rasmussen and Gallup. He's normally pretty close. We'll see in a few hours.
Posted on October 18, 2008 8:56 AM
anyone here able to calculate the individual days of trackers?
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:00 AM
The electoral vote model Nate uses favors Obama in the event of a narrow McCain popular vote win. Thing is, can someone tell me where he's going to get his votes for this narrow win?
You can talk about collapsing polls but all I see is strengthening in areas that were leaning McCain in the first place. The kinds of voters he desperately needs are not coming to him at this point. He's picked up white male repubs indies, to some degree and solidified Repubs a bit more in this poll and that's it, basically, except for sight movement in the 30-45 demographic, which had been strong for him early on. This demographic softened for a while and moved to Obama. Seems that it's moved back somewhat to McCain.
Obviously the model which can best assess party ID and evaluate enthusiasm and voting likelihood of the new flood of registered voters and young voters will nail this result best.
Nate, at fivethirtyeight.com is using Gallup LV II as his model, while giving the Ras poll far higher weighting generally than any other tracker. For those who think Nate's a partisan hack please look at his astoundingly high Ras rating, especially compared to Gallup. What Nate's figured out is that Ras, on a national level (Ras' accuracy within particular states isn't quite as respected though it's one of Nate's top state pollsters as well) consistently shows us the low end of Dem support and is the most stable and useful tool in this contest because of that.
I think that looking at Ras 2 weeks out and adding 1 point is a very good snapshot as to how things really are in this race. So...5% feels perfect. I'm also happy to see R2k down in the 7 range as it provides a more useful Dem top. Taken together the polls now are bottoming at 4 and topping out (sans Hotline, which is all over the place) at 7 (if one uses Gallup II, of course).
For those who want to use Gallup one as a predictor I say that you can ignore mass movements of enthusiasm for an historic event (coupled with the kind of GOTV advantage for Dems this year which powered Repubs in 2004) if you wish to, at your own peril. That Gallup, after being criticized heavily for it's initial attempt at a likely voter screen earlier this year felt compelled to revisit its own LV screening (to arrive at LVII) tells us al something about how the wheels are turning in the mind of the pollsters this year
If you are honest with yourself and you sit down with these inernals and try to imagine where McCain is going to get another 4% for himself I doubt you'll get very far. You can get another 1.5% for party ID but won't this realistically be counterbalanced by GOTV of Obama in the key states?
I don't see any weakening of Dems and undecided has shrunken measurably. Let's look at Ras and his analysis regarding hard and soft support. If Obama's support among indies is still soft at this point, and if McCain creates some kind of coherent narrative and Obama goes flat (or gets unfavorable press) ...well, anything's possible. But Nates 94% Obama win result seems to pretty much summarize how things stand at this time. The only thing that I'd really like to see is Obama up at about 40% of whites, though that's being offset by his performance among AA and, especially, Hispanics. It's Hispanics that are really insulating him (as we figured he'd have the AA vote).
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:04 AM
Make that "McCain get another 5-6% for himself", as I think he needs that much more to stand a chance
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:07 AM
daily kos 50-43
You can't cherry-pick polls like that, you need to look at overall trends - some of the trackers have shown Obama moving up, some down, some have stayed the same. There may be a slight trend towards McCain (maybe), but it isn't at this moment anything to be concerned about, and its expected that the race will narrow somewhat prior to election day anwway. That is a long, long way from McCain even being close to winning. Obama has an overwhelming advantage in the electoral college.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:08 AM
i think there was movement with white indie women aswell.
i think he needs 41% whites to win
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:09 AM
i wouldnt be concerned about the polls narrowing if it was simply mccain gaining undecideds, but obama is no longer hitting his high marks with rasmussen, gallup or kos
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:14 AM
The sky ain't falling gang.
Polls out just yesterday have Obama up big in MO, CO and NV and close in ND. That's more than enough to win.
McCain is running out of time. It's our game, folks!
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!!!!
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:18 AM
So McCain is super-pissed (again) at the NYT for the Cindy article. Well they made the decision to put her out there to attack Barack and Michelle. This is not the traditional role of a spouse. And since she is playing the attack dog role she can't really expect the kid gloves treatment that someone like Laura Bush gets.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:19 AM
I am fairly sure the Kos poll was overinflating his support anyway, I doubt Obama has ever been up consistently by 12-13 points. Rasmussens shift has been marginal - Obama has been at 50-52 for roughly a month, and is still there. My point is that a 5-7 point popular vote lead two weeks out is substantial, and the current EV lead far more so. He is in vastly better shape than Gore or Kerry were at this point in their campaigns, and we have no idea how much his superior organization and greater level of supporter enthusiasm is going to add to his eventual numbers. I think its safe to say as long as places like North Dakota are in play, all is fairly well.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:23 AM
Powell will not move many undecided voters but will certainly help shore up any soft support. Plus it moves the news cycle off the latest McCain gimmick.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:28 AM
but daily kos have not altered the internals(besides adding a percentage point more AAs), so the trend is clear.
if i remember correctly obama was touching 53,54 on kos, last two days 50, 49.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:30 AM
Good steadying result
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:32 AM
"These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-three straight days. McCain has not been up by even a single point in over a month"
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:34 AM
Yeah, Obama picked up a point in Ras. The race is firming up, polls are starting to converge around the Obama +4-5 range. Hell, I'd even settle for Obama +3 on election day.
I'll get nervous when all polls average out at Obama +2 or less.
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!!!
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:35 AM
ras 50 obama 45 mac
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:36 AM
Looks like McCain had managed to terrify the white vote around Wednesday - and then came the debate.
Since then those who believed the Ayers/Acorn myths start to use their brains again.
We've seen a McCain peek on Wednesday. Mark my words.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:37 AM
Here is an interesting article explaining why Democratic strategists believe the polls will tighten.
Makes a lot of sense, what we should (and have) been seeing is a "coming home" of McCain support that was sitting undecided but was really there all along. As long as Obama's numbers stay in the 49-52% nationally it doesn't really matter how McCain performs.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:39 AM
ras 50 obama 45 mac
What is more so for me is Rasmussen's comments about the stability of the race, and the fact that Obama's favorability numbers are stable, and still higher than McCain's.
The national polls are tricky and at this point they have become less important. The polls that matter most are the battleground States, Remember that we could have a president who won the electoral college but lost the popular vote
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:44 AM
RASMUSSEN SHOWS THIS RACE COULD STILL GO EITHER WAY:
Forty-four percent (44%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind. Forty percent (40%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) have a preference for once candidate or the other but still say they might change their mind.
3 weeks out and still 13% undecided. Amazingly tight race.
today's gallup has Obama by 7
50 O : 43 M
watching MSNBC who just announced it
Hell, I'd even settle for Obama +3 on election day.
That is my guess too. I also would like to point out what you can read on RAS website in the week recap:
"McCain needs a couple big breaks if he's going to make the presidential race competitive down to the wire. Obama now has the edge in every single state won by John Kerry four years ago. Of the states won by Bush in 2004, McCain is trailing in four, and five others are considered toss-ups."
This at the moment seems to be a solid scenario that emerges from polls. And it is all good. According to Politico.com, McCain won the news cycle for most of the week last week, which tells us that his 'comeback' probably rebound the GOP base a bit. I agree the spread the wealth thing was a bad slip that made McCain win the first part of the week.
No need to panic, need to VOTE VOTE VOTE!
"Amazingly tight race."
There there, only 17 more days of this Boomy, and then we can start moving into stage seven (the acceptance stage).
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:49 AM
I agree with Chuck Todd that most of the undecideds are disgruntled conservatives that will probably hold their nose and vote for McCain. But if Obama can stay at or above 50% he is in good shape. Even 49% is ok because he will get some of the undecideds. But below 49% would indicate declining Obama support.
Did MSNBC say which Gallup model hey were quoting?
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:50 AM
Ras now at 5%
Forty-four percent (44%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind. Forty percent (40%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) have a preference for once candidate or the other but still say they might change their mind.
SO...do the math...McCain needs to nail down or peel away almost 70% of all current soft support for either candidate (if remaining undecideds split). The trend's been the other way over the past month. To do that he'll need to give them a compelling reason, which (after all these months of his lurching, improv campaign is...??
The gallup on MSNBC is just yesterdays RV result. They are always a day behind on the netwoeks.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:51 AM
Boomshak....you are so pathetic.This race is far from tight.
I wonder how this new strategy the McCain camp is employing is going to work out. Sarah Palin and some of the other McCain flacks are out saying that if you are a liberal and don't hold the same beliefs as the Republican party you are now Anti-America.
They seem to be going all Joe McCarthy on Obama. Just since the Debate we've got the Robocalls, Palin saying that she was glad to be in a "Pro-American" state like NC, and the Bachmann interview.
(For those that missed this littel duece)
Is this a fire up the base strategy, or one designed to scare the middle towards the right. It will be interesting to see how this stuff plays out in the polls over the next couple of days.
OMG OMG OMG McCain is down 1 pt in Rasmussen. By Drudge's standards this a catastrophic collapse of McCain's support, which will lead to utter destruction of his campaign.
Sorry I haven't read your post, I was writing mine, the article is really an interesting one and is matching my point
You are right the race is amazingly tight, that's why you should go out and campaign for McCain instead of trolling.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:52 AM
Hey guys, I've got a question:
Is a former president constitutionally prohibited from seeking high office (i.e. US Senate or Govenor of a state)?
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:55 AM
As Long as Obama holds his 8 point lead in VA, a6 point lead in Colorado and and a 4 point lead in Nevada, McCain´s chances are very small
what happened to the "MCCAIN SURGE" ??
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:56 AM
Only an idiot would say that this is an amazingly close race at this point. Bottom line is that it's between 4-10 with an average around 6 in the polls and my estimate of 5 based on Ras as the gold standard in national trackers (and I like to err on the side of conservatism)
5 points translates to landslide at the polls as that result is of course magnified in individual states which are trending for one candidate or another. So if it's trending Dem +5 easily means +8 or even +10. Look at PA, IA, WI, MN now if you have any doubts. avg of all of them is double digits for Obama.
Posted on October 18, 2008 9:59 AM
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:03 AM
Sept 18th Obama 48% McCain 48%
Oct. 18th Obama 50% McCain 45%
Whers has all McLiars support gone?
All the polls are converging - as they do this late in the game.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:04 AM
No. The Constitution only prohibits someone from being elected to the Presidency more than twice.
They can run for any other office, but I think it's considered undignified to run for a "lower" office after being President.
DailyKos down from +12 to +7 in a week.
GW/BattleGround down from +13 to +4 in a week.
Gallup down from +11 to +2 in a week.
Still 13% undecided's in the Rasmussen Poll. The electorate alway shifts right in the final week.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:05 AM
Thanks. Interesting though. If some *really* wanted to serve, the senate would be a great place to do it.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:06 AM
HOTLINE POLL: OBAMA LEAD SHRINKS 3 POINTS IN ONE DAY!
Hotline out this AM. Obama 49, McCain 42.
I personally thing the Hotline Poll is bullsh*t, but like DailyKos, it is showing a significant shift towards McCain.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:08 AM
When GW Battleground jumped 5% to 13% for Obama you said it was crap. Obviously that number was a misprint and probably reflected one day of polling.
As far as Gallup goes you sound like Drudge the sludge or Hannity the insanity. The Gallup was at plus 11% of RVs, not traditional LVs. Nice try though Drudge.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:10 AM
Kindly stop spewing utter rubbish.
"Gallup down from +11 to +2 in a week."
You're using RV against LV Trad Model.
Also, the electorate doesn't swing right in the last week, the polls start tightening regardless of which candidate is leading, and pollsters want to avoid looking like absolute noobs, so they will all predictably converge in the next 2 weeks. O+4 on election day. Your guy is done.
"The electorate alway shifts right in the final week."
Remember the Rove-Delay dream of the "permanent Republican majority"? Well boom, your dream is dying.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:12 AM
Your numbers are amazing :-) WOW!!! Your analysis is just "wowing." You should be partying already :-)
Feels good actually (strange as that may sound for an O supporter to say) to see Kos and Hotline return to earth. When polls DO converge we feel like we're treading on much more solid ground. I expect Gallup will be +-1 today and confirm a 5+ race and a pretty stable one at that.
Interested to see how Ras weights party ID next week. Seems like he's had to slowly move Dem ID up; I wonder if he's been stretching things out deliberately. He wants to nail the final result as much as any other pollster so at some point he has to put all his real statistical modeling cards on the table. I think Dem 6.5 for next week and Dem + 6.8 or 7 for right before the election.
You are frankly to stupid to realize that they are all going to end up at Obama 50% McCain 45 or 46%. If you think not then I suggest Intrade.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:14 AM
Nate at 538 seems to think O had a good day on Gallup yesterday. We'll know in a few hours. Anyone know what time IBD/TIPP post their polls (or if they even release on weekends)?
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:15 AM
Boom, you are such an idiot.
These ****s of a couple of point are caused by a good day/bad day dropping off...Can you get a grip. Please. I just hate correcting you all the time. Kos dropped so much because a +13 day dropped off. Everying is normalizing as we close to election day.
And your gallup number is just wrong. You are comparing RVs to LV1 from gallup.
My magic tells me that today gallup will show a shift to Obama, and a bigger one tomorrow. Ras will do the same. Obama supporters are not going to be dancing in the streets, we are watching the ebb and flow with an understanding of the stats.
Conclusion: Obama has 50% support two weeks before election (unheard of in presidential election the last 30 years), and McCain has a 44% ceiling. Get your panties out of bunch. Obama is going into the last two weeks with a 5-7% national lead, and an electoral lead of +131...
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:16 AM
@maddiekat and vmval1:
thanks, didn't know MSNBC was quoting day old stuff. posted it as I saw it.
as much as I want to believe that math, I think you are leaving the 7.3 undecideds and making a couple of major assumptions in your model (such as everything adding up nicely to 100% I+R+D+U - that leaves out other contingencies)
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:18 AM
Hey guys, I've got a question:
Is a former president constitutionally prohibited from seeking high office (i.e. US Senate or Govenor of a state)?"
As far as I know, they would still be able to run for Senator or Representative, for as many terms as they like, just like anyone else. As for Governor, it would depend. If they had previously been a Governor before becoming President and served as long as the law of the state allowed, then they would not be allowed to run for Governor. If they hadn't previously served as Governor of that state, or had only served one term, then they would be allowed to run and serve as far as I know.
That being said, it's doubtful any former President would want to serve in the senate or as Governor. They also have secret service issues to deal with, as well, that would probably cause them to immediately outrule the idea of even running for another public office. Former Presidents tend to view things such as serving as an ambassador or advocating for things such as human rights, peace, and works in the local communities like building homes for those who need them as a more appealing post-Presidential career path.
Watch for the state polls to start moving back towards McCain as well. Obama has been exposed as a Communist in Moderate's clothing.
P.S., We should be getting a new CBS Poll any day now showing Obama up by 18, just to make sure the RCP Average doesn't shift to McCain.
Rasmussen 50:45 Obama +1 than yesterday
No tightening any more.
this is the result including 2 days after debate... i can tell you tomorrow it will be 6 percent gap.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:20 AM
Its OK Boomshak. We understand the pain. Hush now, it'll all be over in 18 days.
History shows that the electorate shifts to the change candidate in the final weeks of a change election, e.g. 1976, 1980, 1992, 2000.
Plus, both McCain's and Palin's favorability ratings have plunged recently. People don't vote for candidates they don't particularly like.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:21 AM
I need only remind you of the Democrat Primaries. Obama CONSISTENTLY outpolled his actual draw.
Multiple established pollsters had Obama winning NH by double-digits, yet he lost by 4.
Why do you think organizations like ACORN are trying so hard to cheat for Obama? They know he is not as far ahead as many of these polls suggest.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:22 AM
"Watch for the state polls to start moving back towards McCain as well. Obama has been exposed as a Communist in Moderate's clothing."
Well, maybe if you're a religious fascist. But not to people with a brain. LOL
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:23 AM
Napoleon is correct that the Constitution does not bar a president from running for other offices. While not an elective office, Taft served as a Chief Justice of the Supreme Court after his presidency. John Quincy Adams served 12 years in the House after he lost his bid for re-election. Offhand I can't think of anyone else who held public office after being president.
good morning, boomshack!
as much as i want to agree with your insightful analysis, i gotta point out to you that the ONLY people who still care about communism are the right wingnuts like Bachmann, McCain, a couple of Cubans in Miami and you.
That communist talking point does not stick with the demo McCain needs to pick up.
and on a general unrelated note, why can't we have another poll posted in here - it is becoming downright PAINFUL to scroll though all the posts in this thread - TOO LONG
Pollsters should have a VA tracking poll. That State seems to be the one that could decide this race
Thanks for the answers people.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:24 AM
"I need only remind you of the Democrat Primaries. Obama CONSISTENTLY outpolled his actual draw."
Another lie. He lost NH, right. But he was underestimated in polls much more often. And not by small margins.
Hey Boomshak, you're not talking to your right-wing idiot friends here.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:25 AM
Fool. Watch, learn and grow from the learning.
Obama will be the greatest collapse in political history. On election night, the entire MSM will be gobsmacked. Remember FL 2004? Kerry had it in the bag according to exit polling. He was ahead in FL by 20! Let's ask President Kerry how that turned out.
"Spread the Wealth Around" will be his undoing.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:26 AM
hey, boom btw, why is the Bush-appointed Supreme Court of the United States siding with the communist ACORN? Just curious on your spin on this one.
Btw, now for the 5th time in as many days, I must ask you where we stand on the McCampaign: are we back on board or are we still mad as hell at them? I need to pick out my Saturday wardrobe accordingly. TIA
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:27 AM
You are wrong boom. Obama consistently OUTPERFORMED the polls in most cases. In a few he did not (primarily in the south). If you have evidence to the contrary, please link to it. Here is the debunking of the bradley effect on obama:
You are also talking about a situation where changes/polling from week to week is very inconsistent because primaries move so fast from state to state. You don't have the body of evidence that you have with a GE.
It's okay boom, everything will be okay.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:28 AM
Alright I've got to ask. What is up with Bachmann? Dude isn't she a rep in your state? How is that playing in the local media there?
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:31 AM
Fool. Watch, learn and grow from the learning.
Obama will be the greatest collapse in political history. On election night, the entire MSM will be gobsmacked. Remember FL 2004? Kerry had it in the bag according to exit polling. He was ahead in FL by 20!"
Boom, if you keep posting your inaccuracies back to back this quickly, even a fully trained staff of liberals will have a hard time keeping and correcting your misstatements in a timely fashion. You might have to stay after school.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:32 AM
There's no way in the world you have an IQ over 100.
Palin's favorables are -20 in some polls. Outside of the base, no one likes her. Trust me, Obama will win here in North Carolina and this will be a major re-aligning election.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:34 AM
You're using RV against LV Trad Model."
What, boom**** misconstrue the facts? NEVER!
Seriously though, I'm still waiting for boom to tell us how MUH-KANE can win this in the Electoral College. "Watch the state polls move back to McCain" Really, boom, is that all you got? Where is the proof? What about the state polls that are out there RIGHT NOW? Not four years ago, not four days from now, not four months from now. RIGHT NOW. Do you really think that McCain will-- or even CAN-- bring EVERY SINGLE ONE of the swing states back into a tie by election day? Especially now, with true conservatives (not the wacky evangelical neocons like yourself boom****) jumping ship on a daily basis and instead hitching their wagon to Obama, causing your "Obama is an evil TERRORIST SOCIALIST!" line of bull**** to grow weaker and weaker.
OMG! THE FAYVURBULLS R TIGHTENING! PALINZ TO HAVE HUR FAYVURBULLS AT STATISTICAL TIE WITH OBAMAZ BUH SUNDEE... (the "Sundee" after the election, that is)
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:41 AM
Where Obama underperformed polls are CA, NH, Rhode island.... in fact, mostly the democratic region... where people can't express their racial bias easily....
But he outperformed polls in VA, NC...(more than double digits)... in red states, nobody is shy to express racism because it is common.
So, you can take NH...
But obama will certainly take VA, NC.
And don't forget... in rasumssen poll you have to add 2-3 percent to obama... because they miss cell phone users...
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:42 AM
@1Angry, are you trying to raise my blood pressure this early in the morning? Ouch. Search for my earlier posts in this thread as I was watching this scumbag fascist on Chris Matthews last night live. I posted a bunch of stuff on her in this very thread.
I've been working on campaigns against her ever since we defeated her attempt to get on our local school board back in mid '90s. She belongs to a fringe church that believes that the Pope is the Satan. I can go on, and I did earlier.
I personally spent my own money ordering 1000 bumper stickers that say "To Hell with Bachmann". One is on my car. The other 990 are all over cars in CD6 and MN. I can go on :).
I hope she is going down this time, but this is the reddest of all districts in a tristate (Iowa, MN, WI) area. We live in a very affluent pocket of a gerrymandered district.
On the east we have wealth and Jesus and the west we have white trash and Springer.
El Tinklenberg has a shot (according to my wise wife :), because he was a mayor of Blaine, which is huge geographically on the west side of the district, where Bachmann historically done well - she always loses in her home in Stillwater (east). If El undercuts her base there, which he seems to be doing well right now (he is a former minister, former head of the state dept of transportation, mayor, etc), he has a shot.
both he and Patty Wettherling (who lost to Bachmann in 2006) are playing "nice" and not exposing the wacko that Bachmann is. And that REALLY needs to be done, imho.
I dunno if that answers your question, but she is a real thorn in our side here. A national embarrassment. btw, she is the one who frenched dubya during his first visit to the current congress. she held him for 30 secs in her paws and the media had a ball with that back in early 2007.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:44 AM
WOMEN 37 56 1 2 1 3
I see solid numbers here, though there may be a slight bit of "white flight", but it's mostly from men, who are now +5 for McCain. Obama was up with them last week.
As for 41% whites, it's unnecessary for a few reasons
1. AA vote is going to be 6% or so higher for Obama than for Kerry. That translates into 1% of the total.
2.The AA turnout will be a little higher as well based on early voting and other indicators of enthusiasm. This should provide another 1% for Obama.
3. The latino vote is running significantly higher for Obama than Kerry; if Latinos vote at just their '04 % that translates to a little under 1%
4. This year 18-29 demographic should vote at a higher %. Staying conservative, I estimate that they will make up an additional 1% of the electorate (up from "04 that is). That's worth just under .5%
5. Newly registered voters will vote at higher-then-expected levels. Hard to quantify this exactly but I expect this to give Obama an additional 1%
6. GOTV in the key states is with Obama this year, especially in VA, CO, NC. In these states it is worth about 2%
Add this all up and you see a 4.5% gain for Obama overall and 6% or higher in battlegrounds. Now take Kerry's '04 % of whites...38 I think and look at his popular vote %. If Obama stays at 39% and all the other factors I mentioned turn out to be correct (Kerry having lost the popular vote by 2.4%) we're looking at a 2.5-3.5 point popular vote win for Obama (adding in up to 1% for GOTV advantage spread over the nation)
I think my assumptions are conservative and that new and young and motivated AAs and Hispanics (and those elusive cell phone users) could boost the margin to 4%.
If McCain's strategy is to go culture war negative and "scary terrorist" negative in a play for more whites now I think he gets a few more soft indie and repub ones (which recent polls show are coming back to him modestly) but Obama solidifies most soft dem and "medium" indie support. I don't see McCain's current tactics successfully peeling away soft dem support, especially with his recent comments on "health of the mother"
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:45 AM
Love it! Boomshak is such a fool. I know we should ignore him, but it's fun to get under his skin.
Posted on October 18, 2008 10:58 AM
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