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CA: Obama 60, McCain 36 (SurveyUSA-10/29-31)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
10/29-31/08; 637 LV, 4%
Mode: IVR

California
Obama 60, McCain 36

Also:

Proposition 4 amends the California constitution so that a minor who wishes to have an abortion must wait at least 48 hours after a physician has notified the girl's parent. On Proposition 4, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?

    40% Yes
    46% No

Proposition 8 would eliminate the right of Same-Sex Couples to marry. It changes the California Constitution so that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid in California. On Proposition 8, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?

    47% Yes
    50% No

 

Comments
WhereisMitt:

But....but....Obama can't win the big states! He lost them in the primaries! :)

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WhereisMitt:

Serious question for the board.

Does anyone think that there is another "New Hampshire" hidden in any of the state polls? In other words, is there any state where every poll shows Obama or McCain ahead, yet is completely wrong?

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Carter:

Anyone have numbers on how big the CA vote spread was in the past few cycles?

Big turnout in CA could help Obama run up his popular vote count, even if it doesn't do much for his electoral numbers...

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Dana Adini:

California was 10.6% of total popoular vote in 2004

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UpperLeft:

60% is just a ridiculous margin. 36% McCain?? That says California is just as Blue as Utah is Red. Obama has def done something right.

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DTM:

@Carter

California was about Kerry +9 in 2004, Gore +12 in 2000. FDR won it by 35 in 1936, Johnson by 18 in 1964, and Reagan by about 16 in both 1980 and 1984.

@WhereisMitt

Almost all the polls show McCain ahead in Georgia (there was one Insider Advantage poll that showed Obama +1, but the latest IA polls shows McCain +1). So that would be my nominee (Obama potentially winning Georgia despite that fact).

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Remember when Rick Davis said to "watch California"?

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lilyogini:

Woo hoo! Prop 8 is going DOWN! Along with prop 4.

California rocks :)

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NHBlue:

@WhereIs Mitt:

As I've mentioned before, there was no real Obama/Clinton polarization in NH. The thing I heard repeatedly among Dems was "I could vote for either one." My wife for one voted for Hillary expecting Obama to win, but she wanted once in her life to vote for a woman running for president.

What I'm saying is that the NH primary upset was no instance of Bradley effect (imho) and not likely to be predictive of any surprise in the highly polarized general election.

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DecaturMark:

@WhereisMitt:

I have a secret desire that LA is so mad at the Fed level Reps after Katrina that they vote for Obama.

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coffeemana:

It's scary how much hate mail I have received from the yes on 8 campaign. Please call and e-mail friends who live in CA to help stop this bigotry.

The Mormon church and Knights of Columbus are trying to steamroll our constitution towards permanent prejudicial treatment of gays and lesbians. No on 8!

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cjk002:

Carter:

I live in CA, and they are saying here that Obama could win by the largest margin ever in California history, beating out Reagan's margin of victory.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Man, those Props better lose.

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AtlantaBill:

I consider this one a real toss-up ... you know, like having a 'jump ball' face off at center court between Shak and Allan Iverson. A real nail-biter if i've ever seen one.

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pbcrunch:

As a Californian, the fact that those props are so close is scary. If they can win here, they can win ANYWHERE. Conservatives are pouring money into the races; Prop 8 is the second most expensive battle in the country, and one of the biggest proposition battles ever.

The Yes on Prop 8 people have run a scary good campaign, completely twisting the issue (somehow it became a children's rights issue... huh?). The No on Prop 8 people have a good slogan - equality - but have had trouble articulating it well. MoveOn and other progressive groups took notice, though, and the ads became much better.

If the Yes people can't get above 50% in polls, they have no chance of winning; undecideds usually break to vote No on propositions.

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tominga:

If this were to hold, what a monumental butt-kicking! California is a much larger state now than it was in 1936 with FDR. You just don't get differences like this in a state (or country) as large as California.

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SmarterThanYou:

I'm in CA as well, the reason prop 8 is so close is the latino vote, and the catholics. Either way I think both will go down. Prop 4 gets brought up every election, always gets beaten.

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drinkwine247:

The important thing to notice here, is that Obama is solidifying a 50%+ AVERAGE even as the supposed "McCain is tightening in the polls" that they won't shut up about on MSNBC. Has anyone noticed that Norah O'Donnell was really really trying to push the Obama aunt story today?

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logic001:

I'm another Californian, and I think two factors account for Obama's success:

1) In the large urban areas, Californians are very accustomed to co-workers and romantic partners who aren't white. I'd be very, very surprised if the Bradley effect is still with us.

2) In a weird, "on the other hand" sort of way, Californians are very aware of high tech jobs being sent offshore to China and particularly India. When Hewlett-Packard says they want to "send everything we possibly can offshore", Californians know that is not idle chatter. So Obama's talking point about rewarding corps. that create jobs here is immensely popular among scientists and engineers here.

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PJ_FFM:

Guys, you DO realize that if BO is ahead by a margin that size in CA, this would have quite an effect on the national polls, but would in return look quite grim for the REAL battlegrounds, as the margins there would have to be more favorable for McCain in order to get the national numbers we're seeing?

After all, we did have soem fun pointing out that a super sized margin in favor of McCain in, say, ID or AL or UT is worth about, uhm, nothing, just days ago...

Actually I hope that this is an OUTLIER...

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shirefox:

@drinkwine247

Yes, it is annoying how bad MSNBC wants a tight race. This morning they had a Reuters guy on saying McCain was ahead in the latest Zogby poll. I had just been on C-SPAN where John Zogby on the phone said it was O-49 M-44. I went back to MSNBC and backed it up (TiVo) and verified again what the Reuters guy had said. Unbelievable. What he was smoking I can't imagine.

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Joey Skinz:

Mccain should campaign in california just to show he has a good sense of humor

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coffeemana:

CA Latinos, I believe, are clearly going heavily for Obama & I also think this is the case in Colorado and, possibly even in FL (at least among non-Cubans, but I could be wrong). I say this because my wife and I just made phone calls to both states for GOTV, and we both spoke to many latinos (we are bilingual) who were extremely enthusiastically pro-Obama. A high percentage whom we spoke to were wrong numbers (i.e. not among the necessarily Democratic faithful)!

McCain was truly mistaken to believe that support by Latinos for Hillary during the primaries would translate to support in the general election...

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sulthernao:

shirefox

McCain was up in the latest day of Zogby (crap) polling. With a margin of error of 4... Obama could have been up by as much as 7. Oh and remember that Zogby's weights are equivalent to the 2004 turnout, when in reality Dems have a +6-8 partisan advantage.

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YES on 8. It's more than simply equality for all. Who wouldn't want that, right? Well, last change to educate yourself before going to vote. whyprop8.wordpress.com

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