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Articles and Analysis

 

Calm Before the Inaugural "Outliers"

Topics: Outliers Feature

Carl Bialik has everything you've ever wanted to know about estimating crowd size (blog post too).

Kathy Frankvoic considers polling lessons from 2008 and challenges for 2009.

David Hill ponders the still gloomy "wrong track" numbers.

Mark Mellman names the four conditions necessary to deliver bold policy change.

Nate Silver questions a contradictory Alaska poll.

Kevin Drum revisits his election projection poll (via Sides).   

John Sides reviews new research exploring links between early life experiences and voter turnout.

Henry Farrell see the fingerprints of political science in the 2008 campaigns.

PPP will be polling Missouri this weekend.

Patrick Egan and  Kenneth Sherrill (pdf) author a new report on California's Prop 8 (sponsored by the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force; via Coates via Sullivan).

R (the software that powers our charts) gets a New York Times profile (via Gelman with equal time for SAS).

Flowing data shows reproduces an example of webcomic xkcd, by artist Randall Munroe, on how graphs lead to a decline in love:


20090109flowingdata.jpg

 

Comments
Jed:

To clarify that last item: the cartoon is from the webcomic xkcd, by Randall Munroe. Flowing data was just reprinting it.

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Vicente Duque:

Mark :

Have a Nice New Year and Thanks for links.

I visited the John Sides article ( The Wayback Machine and Voter Turnout ) and enjoyed this paragraph :

"But some new evidence points to the enduring influence of early life experiences — things which are not influenced by campaign tactics or changes in electoral laws. In other words, to understand why people vote, we have to hop into the Wayback Machine."

I like this because I want to explore the "Political Imprinting" at an early age, like ducks and geese that are imprinted by the first animal thay see after hatching.

I think that the Art of being a pollster is not only making calls or knocking doors. You have to know a lot of things of the Electorate or the Consumers before asking opinions or looking for trends.


"Political experiments and political strategies" by Henry Farrell also teaches us interesting ideas.

So people are politically "imprinted" but they are not yet mobilized to vote.

Farrell says "

"They also wanted to capitalize on research by Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber of Yale, which suggests that social pressure is among the most effective ways to bring out the youth vote. The resulting threat of “humiliation in the future,” said Mr. Koechley, a former managing editor of the satirical newspaper The Onion, “goes down a little easier with a little humor in it.”

Good paragraph, I love Comics, Fun Comical Movies, Humor, Satire, Comicity, Irony, Sarcasm. They are part of Literary Art, and political attack.

So thanks, for your presence in the Internet and continue with your excellent Informations.

Prophesizing.com

Milenials.com

Vicente Duque

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