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Charts Worth a Thousand Words 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Jennifer Agiesta finds 50% disapprove of Obama on financial regulations.

Jon Cohen weighs conflicting polls on a deepwater drilling ban.

Ken Rudin expects huge turnover in gubernatorial races; William Galston says the Senate will be in play.

Patrick Ottenhoff reports that Republicans will look for House pickups in districts where Kerry outperformed Obama.

Dick Bennett of ARG challenges Nate Silver's pollster rankings; Silver responds.

Andrew Gelman reminds us that Americans can be "pretty uninformed about about the economy," including their own personal experiences.

David Hill thinks Baby Boomers may be returning to their political roots.

Tom Jensen notices Democrats trailing even when they're more popular than their opponents.

Mark Mellman advocates switching to electric cars.

PPP finds Michael Steele is unpopular in his home state.

Alex Lundry launches a TechRepublican blog on the political tech revolution in data and analytics.

Taegan Goddard's new Political Dictionary defines "push polling" and gets it right.

Ezra Klein shares a chart "worth a thousand words."

 

Comments
real_american:

The democrats who are still in denial about losing both the house and senate, look closely at the Patrick Ottendorf. If you don't like his numbers, go look at www.realclearpolitics.com.

There are not only 45 guaranteed safe seats for democrats. There are 3 that are likely democrat.

That's it. Only 48 seats safe or likely. All the other seats are in the tossup, leans GOP, or likely GOP category.

No matter what the uber-liberal poll manipulator Nate Silver says, the democrats keeping the house is now only a 50/50 chance.

The governors situation is even worse. The GOP is looking at picking up 15 governorships from the democrats. That is absolutely enormous. Possibly the biggest GOP pickup in history.

Once the public realizes how bad they were screwed with this phony "financial regulation" bill that is just a disguise for giving unprecedented power and money to the unions, things will get even worse for the democrats.

Every corrupt bill this corrupt passes signed byu this corrupt president, the more likely it is that there will be a complete sweep by the GOP - house, senate, governships, and state legislatures.

Maybe then this country can stop the Obama socialist nightmare.

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I have a more fundamental problem with Silver's pollster rankings and his forecasting model methodology:

http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm

I followed the letter up with 25 questions to prove my assertions:
http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm

The premise of Silver's ranking model is wrong to begin with: he uses the recorded vote as a baseline for measuring pollster accuracy. That is not a valid premise.

He should be using the True Vote. We know that our elections have never been fraud-free. Does anyone here still believe that Bush really won in 2004?

RECORDED VOTE = TRUE VOTE + FRAUD

Zogby correctly predicted the TRUE VOTE in each of the last three presidential elections. It was not his fault that it was stolen in 2004.

Silver ranks this venerable pollster DEAD LAST, which nullfies Silver's model on its face.

On the other hand Rasmussen, who predicted the bogus RECORDED VOTE, is ranked higher than Zogby.

Go figure.

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