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CNN: 2010 House (1/8-10)


CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
1/8-10/10; 955 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

2010 House: Generic Ballot
48% Republican, 45% Democrat (chart)

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Big change from the 42-49 they had back in November. Although, they did change from an "adults" to a "registered voters" model.

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obamalover:

This is a bit disconcerting.

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JMSTiger:

The wave is building for the GOP. The problem for them is that they may be peaking too early. If the election were held today, Democrats would lose the House of Representatives, 5-7 seats in the Senate and probably 5-6 governorships. But, this is not November. Will it be better or worse for Democrats in November? They better hope like hell it is better, because if it is any worse, Katy bar the door!

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CUWriter:

A GOP lead on the generic ballot? That's tidal wave material. But will it stick around come November?

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obamalover:

@JMSTiger

There are 3 keys for Dems to turn this around:

1. Unemployment needs to be AT LEAST around 9%

2. Pass healthcare

3. Fire up their base by repealing DADT or DOMA (not necessarily both). DADT seems like the most probable candidate since most of the country favors its repeal.

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Thaddeus:

It will be interesting to see these number 2 months after HCR passes. If they're the same, then I will be worried. But like usual, all politics is local.

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Mark in LA:

That's just bad.
It's all riding on the economy at this point, with our military involvement also dragging down enthusiasm.
Start adding jobs.
Wind down Iraq.
Cross our fingers on Afghanistan.
Uncozy themselves from the bankers who got us in so much trouble.
That's my recipe for a less painful November.

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Stillow:

I disagree. I think one main issue is driving this anti Dem mood, HCR. Support for HCR is in the 30's. Its only a liberal myth that 94 was because they failed to pass HCR. The turth is 94 was because they tried HCR. If HCR falls apart you will a GOP landslide this November. If HCR passes, you will see a HUGE GOP landslide this november.

The race in Mass has ben nationlized into a yay or nay vote on HCR. Brown says he will vote against it and look whats happening.

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Field Marshal:

Exactly.

Passing HCR will only hurt the Dems in Nov. Consider two things: support for its is abysmal and the "benefits" of it won't be realized for many years. Thus, why would passing it realize any bump in the numbers.

Obama can offset the losses resulting from the passage of HCR if jobs start coming back in full form. But he will need to have the unemployment rate below 9.5% for that offset to start occurring. That's about 4 million jobs between now and then. Good luck with that as he add tax after tax on Wall St and businesses.

Economics isn't Obama's strong suit.

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Farleftandproud:

Americans go to extremes. I think change from someone like George W. Bush can be too much to take for some people. I think it would have been better if Democrats had gained more seats in 2004 and gradually got more seats rather than the Tsunami of 2006. I knew it would be trouble for Obama to inherit an international economy like what we have. I think these drastic shifts in power and public opinion are the worst thing for the country. Bi-partisanship is dead, and I think at the rate we are going, were' headed to anarchy and revolution. If there is so much friction and lack of discussion between the two sides, I don't know how either party will get anything done.

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Farleftandproud:

I still could care less about passing HCR and the popularity of the Democrats. Obama campaigned on affordable health care and so did all the Democrats. That is what we campaigned for and it may take longer than the next 8 months for it to gain support. I think it is a no brainer. No other industrialized country pays the high prices for health care American does, and that will never be solved until some sort of HCR is passed. Too many people in American have amnhesia and when an issue like health care debate drags on, they lose interest and forget about the reason we wanted to do for it in the first place.

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Stillow:

Tha tonly problem with your theory is that the current HCR bill will not lower costs....it will increase costs AND taxes for all americans.

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obamalover:

@Stillow

60% of people want a public option. People want more government involvement in the health care system. That much is clear. But right now with on going negoatiations Obama and liberals hands are tied in promoting this thing, because they don't have a final product to present to the American public, and all they are hearing are the negatives. Once this thing passes it will be much easier to sell. If you honestly think the numbers will get worse after the passage then I don't know what to tell you.

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Bigmike:

I honestly think the numbers will get worse after passage. When the bills come due.

There are many reasons the GOP is seeing gains in polls like this.

HCR is one. People realize this is about growing govt and transferring wealth, not about health care. We are looking at an extra trillion dollars in taxes over ten years to pay for it.

The exploding deficits is another. We all know where that leads. Inflation. The numbers out today for Dec didn't get any attention in the MSM that I saw. That is because the rate is growing and that would look bad for BO and the congress that is giving him so many blank checks.

Ineffective leadership is another. Pelosi and Reid have been failures.

I could go on and on. But I don't think it is enough for the GOP to take control of either chamber. It will be enough to make a filibuster mean something again in the senate and the Dems will need every last blue dog in the house to pass anything.

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Stillow:

OL - again that is only half true....people want everything....but the answer changes when you follow it up by adding the fact that your taxes would go up and your waits would get longer. remember, there is absolutely no plan anywhere that I have seen to accomdoate an additional 30 million people. The system we have now accomodates what we have now...to add another 30 million people of course will cause much longer waits, that is not debatable.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"The system we have now accomodates what we have now...to add another 30 million people of course will cause much longer waits, that is not debatable."

Your lack of concern about these 30 million people speaks volumes. We should not ask how bad the addition of these people will be, but how can we provide care for them.

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LordMike:

"remember, there is absolutely no plan anywhere that I have seen to accomdoate an additional 30 million people."

Ummm... there is a plan to accommodate these extra people, it's in the bill... There are several provisions to increase the number of doctors and other medical personnel. And the 30 million is not all happening at once! The increase comes gradually over 10 years...

As for not passing HCR, yes it would be much worse for the dems to not pass it. PPP has polled extensively on this, and the "attempt" to fix the health care system is "priced into" their numbers now. By giving up, they lose a lot of their base support IN ADDITION to what they've lost already.

The dems lost congress in 1994 due to NAFTA, but health care failure was the icing on the cake.

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Stillow:

aaron - Then show me the plan on how an already crowded infrastructure can just simply accomodate antoher 30 million people???????????????????????????? I haven't seen anyone talk about that little glitch. And don't bore me with your so-called superior compassion for the uninusred, since Obamacare doesn't even kick in til 2013....you don't make the needy wealthy by making the wealthy needy. You don't take care of the unisinured by punishing the insured.

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Aaron_in_TX:

The only infrastructure that is really crowded are the charity & county hospitals where they take the uninsured because that is their only choice. The others are fine. There's a methodist hospital near where my parents live, I took my dad to the ER there once and have been there several other times (for non-medical reasons)...they never had more than a dozen people in the ER waiting room at one time.

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obamalover:

@Stillow

The public option is paid for by premiums, not taxes. You clearly don't know what you are talking about.

And you wouldn't wait longer with a public option, I have no clue where you are getting that from. I think you may just be confused. Are thinking of single payer? LOL. Anyhow, even with single payer only elective surgeries have waits. But that is not what is on the table. The public option was on the table, get your facts straight.

Anyhow, you said Americans don't want more government involvement and that is clearly wrong since 60% want the public option. So stop spreading your conservative lies.

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Field Marshal:

Yeah Stillow! Stop spreading your conservative lies!! Don't you know the government will solve all your problems, including health care. I mean, they can't run the post office, the DMV, the TSA, control the border, medicare and medicaid, social security, coordinate intelligence, coordinate between federal, state and local governments after a hurricane, handle an election, or run a school, but by gone, they will make your health care MUCH better! LOL.

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obamalover:

@FM

Actually USPS has better approval ratings than Fedex, and the administrative costs of private insurance are astronomically higher than that of Medicare and Medicaid. But don't let the facts get in the way of your idiocy.

But lets just give all control to the private sector, especially since they almost obliterated the financial system and the auto industry with their incompetence, but luckily for them the government saved their collective arses.

Anyhow, Stillow said the public option would mean higher taxes, presumably to pay for it. That is not true because it would be paid for by premiums of its policy holders. His statement is the definition of a lie, one that conservatives have, dishonestly, been trying to spread.

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Bigmike:

obamalover

I think you are a little off base with the it's not a tax increase argument. Even what you call premiums will be money handed over to govt.

I downloaded a 10 page or so summary of what needs reconciled between the house and senate versions. It was put out by Pelosi's office and I got it from a link on CNN. Here are some quotes. Word for word.

"Employers that do not offer qualified coverage pay an 8% payroll TAX."

"40% excise TAX on group health coverage in excess of $8,500/23,000."

"Additional 0.9% Medicare HI payroll TAX on wages in excess of $200,000."

"10% excise TAX on indoor tanning services."

The following don't actually use the word tax. But a surcharge is a tax increase, a limit on a deduction is a tax increase, and a fee is just a tax by another name.

"5.4% SURCHARGE on income in excess of $500,000."

"Impose annual $2.3B FEE on manufacturers and importers of branded drugs."

Medical devises.
House version "$20.0B (effective 2013; structured as 2.5% excise TAX)"
Senate version "$19.2B (effective 2011; structured as $2B industry FEE .....)"

"Raise 7.5% AGI floor on medical expenses deduction to 10%."

"FEE on insured and self insured plans for comparative effectiveness research (effective 2013)"

I love the last one. They want to add $2B in fees to private plans so they can research to see if they are doing better than the govt plan.

There are plenty more. Still say they are not paying for this with taxes?

They gripe about the private insurers but then saddle them with tax increases. All the while forcing them to compete with a govt entity that can lose money, if the public option passes. That makes it really obvious that the ultimate goal is to kill the private insurers and force EVERYONE into a govt plan.

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obamalover:

@BigMike

Learn to read. I said the PUBLIC OPTION, not the health care bill in total. What does any of that have to do with the public option. LOL! Either you are trying to erect straw men arguments, or you have no clue what you are talking about. I suspect it may be both.

Furthermore, most of the taxes are on the rich. For most Americans, they will not see their taxes increase in any significant way. That is a fact.

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