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CNN/TIME: AZ, NV, NC, OH, PA (10/23-28)

Topics: PHome

CNN / TIME / ORC
10/23-28/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Arizona 807 LV, 3.5%
McCain 53, Obama 46

Nevada 684 LV, 4%
Obama 52, McCain 45

North Carolina 667 LV, 4%
Obama 52, McCain 46

Ohio 779 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47

Pennsylvania 768 LV, 3.5%
Obama 55, McCain 43

 

Comments
NorthernObserver:

Odd, two so very different PA numbers!

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thorfinn:

Date ranges are different. I think the actual number falls somewhere in between on PA.

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BOOMFAIL:

North Carolina - WOW! I would think things there would be tighter than in Ohio.

McShame is speaking right now on the television machine, and goshdarnit, he is falling flat on his face. This has to be one of the worst stump speaches I have seen from him. He's stumbling, bumbling, looking for Joe the fricking plummer to come up on stage (he didn't). I ALMOST feel sorry for him right now.

OK, not really.

Landslide Baby Landslide

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IMind:

I think the high number of undecided in the Mason/Dixon explains the difference.

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Hoosier:

I liked Jim Carville's comment on Joe the Plumber:

The Republicans had to find somebody in their party who spends more time around toilets than Larry Craig.

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AB:

Early voting numbers in NC as of 10:00 pm Oct 29:
1,847,564 voters (29.68% of registered voters)
984,085 Dems (53.26%)
538,825 repubs (29.16%)
323,681 Inds (17.52%)

6,224,230 registered voters in the state
45.69% Dems (a number that is still creeping upward with early onestop.)
32.01% Repubs (a number that is incrementally falling as early onestop voting continues.)

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Viperlord:

Hey boom****! Care to explain these PA numbers and how McPathetic is supposed to win PA with them? Or are you too busy drooling over the Mason-Dixon poll?

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Scribo:

I am curious to know how early voter numbers stack up against LV models.

* In most Ohio counties, the EV turnout is already double what it was in 2004.

* In NC, EV numbers are already over 50 p.c. of the entire 2004 turnout. (In 2004, EV accounted for 30 p.c. of the votes cast). And Dems have a huge 53-29 advantage.

* In NV, EV numbers are about 47 p.c. of the entire 2004 turnout, through Tuesday. And Dems have a 52-31 advantage in the two counties that comprise about 84 p.c. of the state's total RV.

Washoe County NV (Reno) is one of the key swing counties in the nation. As of Tuesday, the EV total was almost 43 p.c. of the entire 2004 turnout, and it broke down this way:

D 49.7
R 33.8
I 16.5

This is a question, not an argument:

Do any of the LV models now in use account for anything like the voter interest and Dem ground game that these numbers imply? Which model comes closest?

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purplevoter:

If these polls are true, game is over!!!
Another lost day for Senator McCain.

By the way, the infomercial may not have added anything but it was a direct contrast to the "evil" terrorist commie McCain/Palin is trying to make him be. It was worth the money.

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lhtk:

Love the NC numbers. OH a little closer than I'd like, but I remain cautiously optimistic there.

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DTM:

@scribo

Ann Selzer has explicitly tried to incorporate those trends in her likely voter model for this year. It seems likely Pew is more or less doing so as well. Gallup is a bit with their "expanded" likely voter model, but my sense is that model may be failing to reflect a possible enthusiasm gap (specifically, it seems possible that it is not new voters in general who are showing up, but disproportionately new voters who favor the Democrats/Obama).

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