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CNN/TIME: CO, FL, GA, MO, VA (10/11-14)

Topics: PHome

CNN / TIME / ORC
10/11-14/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Colorado 762 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47

Florida 765 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 46

Georgia 718 LV, 3.5%
McCain 53, Obama 45

Missouri 763 LV, 3.5%
McCain 49, Obama 48

Virginia 698 LV, 3.5%
Obama 53, McCain 43

 

Comments
PHGrl:

this should finally paint virginia blue!

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BOOMFAIL:

Thanks VA!
Virginia is for lovers :)

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Are there no third party numbers with this series of CNN polls?

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not the largest samples, but I'll take it.

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Unbiased08:

Who would have thought? VA is now more blue than CO, OH, or FL.

Not that it really matters, because Obama only needs to win one of them to win the election.

But it's interesting.

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Tominstl:

Getting confused over the map methodolgy. Obama goes up in Missouri yesterday and nothing happens on the map. OK, so maybe it does not trigger the color change because of the mathmatical number threshold. But then why when I mouse over the state does it tell me that Mccain leads. Why does it chart Mccain as ahead when I pull up the MO page? (If you increase the chart sensitivity it reveals the truth). If I average the last 5 polls done in MO, Obama leads. If I just look at the last couple of days Obama leads even more. What am I missing about the way the map displays the states?

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Iowa City:

Virginia is BLUE!!

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JFactor:

Virginia numbers are ASTOUNDING. 10 point lead? Wow. Day after day the polls keep getting better for Obama. It can't continue like this until election day, when will the state polls stabilize? I must admit that I'm suprised Obama is still growing his lead.
__________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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political_junki:

VA sings the blues.....
Man I am falling in love with Virginia :)

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mrut:

Congratulations to all the people out there in Virginia who are working so hard to bring the state into the Dem column.

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Yellow Dog Democrat:

McCain should pull out of Virginia and send everyone there to Colorado. He needs one of those two states and Colorado is closer.

Florida at five points with a 3.5% margin of error is a hell of a lead for a democrat this late in the race too.

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WhiteChick_VA:

I soooo love my state : )
You are right Boomfail, Virginia is for lovers!
I am proud of the fact that I have been volunteering with the Obama groundforce for well over a month, and it looks as if collectively we have made a difference.

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Atomique:

Woooo!

Go Virginia!

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DCWylly:

Years of expanding government under republican rule is finally biting them in the butt. The resulting population boom in the region is helping turn VA blue. Who'da thunk?

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Obama2008:

Quick question regarding margins of error: How exactly should it be interpreted? For example in the florida poll it shows a margin of error of 3.5. Does that mean that the Obama percentage could be as low as 47.5% (3.5 less than the 51 polled) and the McCain percentage could be as high as 49.5% (or 46 plus the 3.5% margin of error?) who knows the rules behind these statistics?

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CTPonix4BHObama:

Time for the GOP to assume the fetal position and get used to sucking their thumbs.

Its like a bunch of brooms from Fantasia came alive, walked through a blue paint spill, and are attacking from all coasts....


*intercom* blue paint spill in aisle virginia..

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Robi:

I cannot believe that VA went blue...holy crap...

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Atomique:

A margin of error of ±3.5% means that each number they are reporting has a 95% chance of being less than 3.5 percentage points off in either direction. So, that 53 for Obama in Virginia with a ±3.5% margin of error means that there is a 95% chance his actual support in the state is somewhere between 49.5% and 56.5%.

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Yellow Dog Democrat:

It was all over the local news there that McCain's brother called northern Virginia "communist country" at a GOP fundraiser, saying all these commies live in Arlington and Alexandria. McCain didn't denounce him for that. What did he think was going to happen in the polls there?

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Viperlord:

Wooo! Keep VA blue!

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Atomique:

Barack will be in Roanoke on the 17th to help lock up the state!

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mirrorball:

well, they sort of denounced Joe McCain for his comments. The campaign called it an "unsuccessful attempt at humor."

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/joe-mccain-make.html

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

VA is blue!!!!

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McBabieIsNoGood:

Where the hell is boomshak!? I want to rub the fact that VIRGINIA IS BLUE!!

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burrito:

Rasmussen in NM:

Obama 55%
McCain 42%

13 points difference. I think that NM should be DARK blue!!

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MileHigh:

TOO DAMN CLOSE! We need to fight harder than ever and get out the vote. Don't get complacent. Tell it on the mountain!

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wagthedog1001:

Kerry states + IA + NM + CO or VA

It's looking better all of the time.

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CTPonix4BHObama:

The total number of registered voters in Virginia is now 5,021,933.

Since January, Virginia, a swing state this cycle, has experienced a net gain of 436,000 new voters, including what they call an "onslaught" of new voters in the last week of registration.

Nearly 40 percent of the newly registered voters across the state are under the age of 25. Trends show that, regardless of age, females represent the majority of new registered voters.

Among the biggest gainers were cities:
-- Williamsburg: Nearly 20% increase
-- Richmond: More than a 17% increase
-- Arlington County: More than a 14% increase
-- Hampton city: 15.4% increase
-- Charlottesville: 14.6% increase
-- Fairfax County: 9% increase, but that means 61,000 new voters
-- Fairfax City: 7%

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CAmatters:

It ain't ove til they're ALL blue (I'll be happy with 350). Can we amend the Constitution to have the transition in 45 days so we can just be rid of W?

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CAmatters:

It ain't over til they're ALL blue. Can we amend the Constitution so transition is only 445 days so we can just be rid of W.

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faithhopelove:

EVIDENCE THAT VA WILL FLIP FOR OBAMA

1) The most recent VA poll has Obama up 10 there.

2) The 6 most recent polls of VA have shown Obama ahead there; in all 6 of these polls, Obama has hit 50% or better (8 of the last 9 VA polls have shown Obama at 50% or better).

3) 12 of the last 16 polls of VA have shown Obama ahead there.

4) The latest VA polls show very little room for movement in VA, with both candidates having solidified their bases, and with independents evenly split.

5) Right-leaning Rasmussen's most recent VA poll finds Obama with a "very favorable" score that is 11% higher than McCain's--an enthusiasm gap that suggests Obama's likely voters are even more likely than McCain's likely voters.

6) Before the VA primary, pollsters tended to under-estimate Obama's margin of victory there; Rasmussen, whose most recent poll of VA shows Obama up 3, under-estimated Obama's margin of victory by 11 points.

7) Most if not all VA polls have not included cell-only voters, who are disproportionately young and for Obama; multiple studies have found that this omission leads to an under-estimation of Obama's support by 2-3%. VA has the 3rd-largest cell-only population in the country; see:
/blogs/cell_phone_only_households_by.html

8) According to MSNBC, "[s]ince January, Virginia, a swing state this cycle, has experienced a net gain of 436,000 new voters, including what they call an 'onslaught' of new voters in the last week of registration. Nearly 40 percent of the newly registered voters across the state are under the age of 25. Trends show that, regardless of age, females represent the majority of new registered voters." These trends (more youth, more women) favor Obama.

9) Obama is outspending McCain on advertising in VA by more than 5 to 1; see:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/15/143149/87/186/631381

10) Obama has the backing of 4 of 6 living VA governors, including a Republican former governor and the current governor; he also has the support of one of VA's current senators. Former governor Mark Warner, who is crushing his Republican competition in his senate race (and who was the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention), may have reverse coattails.

11) Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, a southerner and former Republican, has targeted VA, visiting the state frequently; he will take some votes from McCain.

12) Obama has the superior ground game, with over 60 field offices in the state; McCain has about 20.

13) Obama visits the state this weekend.

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Tominstl:

JUMPS UP AND DOWN WAIVING ARMS!

Can someone please tell me how the methodology makes Missouri a toss-up with McCain ahead on percentages?

Looking at the last 10 polls:
Combining the polls results in +8 for Obama
Averaging the polls results in +.7% for Obama

I understand that the state is still a toss-up, but the trend lines and the percentages should be for Obama. What gives?

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