Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

CNN/TIME: CO, FL, GA, MO, VA (10/23-28)

Topics: PHome

CNN / TIME / ORC
10/23-28/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Colorado 774 LV, 3.5%
Obama 53, McCain 45

Florida 747 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47

Georgia 690 LV, 3.5%
McCain 52, Obama 47

Missouri 825 LV, 3.5%
McCain 50, Obama 48

Virginia 721 LV, 3.5%
Obama 53, McCain 44

 

Comments
Dave:

Come on MO! you can do it! yes you can!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

More good news for Obama...like usual.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Two new national polls showing Obama +6. I know we've become spoiled but let me REMIND everyone Bush was up by 1.5% on average heading into election day and he won.

____________________

Obama008:

wow that is looking really nice.

____________________

iVote:

According to CNN, when polled, Nader received 4% in Missouri. Any idea what the numbers look like in MO with Nader polled? Is it possible that it could erase McCain's 2% lead there?

____________________

NW Patrick:

I still sit back and laugh when Obama is up 6 nationally in MANY polls with 3 business days left and everyone is FREAKING OUT.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

Hmm...more bad news for Obama.

Only up by 4 in FL (which he doesn't need)

Only up by 9 in VA (which he doesn't need either)

Only up by 8 in CO (which he doesn't need if either of the above polls even happen to be triple-stating Obama's lead)

Liberals better be worried!!!

____________________

jswarren:

The Mizzou poll is good news for McCain. The rest is bad. VA & CO appear still very good for Obama. If VA, CO, NM, & PA are looking good for Obama, then he's in EXTREMELY good shape.

____________________

JCK:

I guess the race has shifted towards McCain in MO and FL. But I'm almost no change in VA and CO.

Still waiting to hear the trolls explain how they expect McCain to win. Is he going to overcome a 5-10 point deficit in both CO and VA, or is he going to overcome a 12 point deficit in PA (and manage to keep NV in his column)?

Please do tell.

____________________

NW Patrick:

From NATE:

Wednesday, October 29, 2008
The Myth of the 'Lag'
One of the most bizarre but oft-repeated myths about polling is the notion that state polls 'lag' behind national polls, and particularly lag behind national trackers. This is largely a relic of a bygone era in which newspapers might commission a poll in their state, and then sit on it for several days until their Sunday editions or some other ebb in the news cycle. Thus, you might be seeing state polls that were in the field a week or so ago, whereas the national trackers were more up-to-date.

This largely is not true today, however. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, perhaps the two most prolific public pollsters, generally release their data no later than 24 hours after it has left the field; likewise with other pollsters like InsiderAdvantage and Public Policy Polling. A couple of other pollsters like Quinnipiac and Mason-Dixon will occasionally sit on a poll for 24-48 hours, but generally not more than that. Every now and then, you'll have some small college or some fledgling marketing firm release a poll that is a couple of weeks old, but this is unusual, and it's easy to notate the exceptions. Most of the big, business-savvy pollsters recognize the importance of timeliness in this era of 24/7 news cycles.

Conversely, some of the national tracking polls are actually not all that fresh. IBD/TIPP has a 5-day polling window. Battleground also has a 5-day polling window, and they don't poll weekends, meaning that they're usually including some data that is a full week old.

Certainly, there is some mystery as to why the state polls and the national trackers seem to have diverged somewhat of late, with John McCain picking up perhaps 2 points in the tracking polls versus last week's averages, whereas the state polls haven't really budged one iota. The 'lag' effect, however, is not a valid explanation.

BONUS EDIT: Here's a fun little reality check for those of you who are sweating the trackers. Since our last update yesterday evening, I have added 34 polls to my database, including both state and national numbers. Barack Obama is ahead in 32 of those 34 polls. The two exceptions are in Arizona and Alaska, the home states of John McCain and his VP nominee, respectively.

____________________

Great American:

It looks good for Obama. With a slight uptick from Zogby and today's gallup numbers it looks like any tightening for McCain is just statistical noise. McCain can't win in all these battleground states and he's taking the low road again with this Palestinian professor. By the way McCain has ties with this same group. What a sleeze-ball.

____________________

mysticlaker:

I think we will get Missouri. It will be tight. This year will the rise of the "minority" voters of America (young americans, african amerians, asian americans, folks who have lost faith the in the everyday politics). That will carry us in many of these close states.

____________________

jswarren:

BarackOClinton:

I do think Obama needs CO.

____________________

boomshak:

IF MCCAIN IS SMART:

He will use Obama's super-expensive commercial tonight to launch a discussion about the Campaign Finance Fraud Obama has used to get the money to pay for it.

____________________

hou04:

MO will be Obama's too... MO has always backed the winner for the past 40+ years.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I'd be nervous if I were McCain. MISSOURI has a HUGE AA population.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

T-Minus 5 days and counting.
Tick...tock...tick...tock...

____________________

Babbit:

I almost complained about the MO and GA numbers but then I said - wait a minute, we are talking about GA and MO here. Being anywhere near winning in those two states is miraculous.

Gah! Will this thing hurry up and be over already. I can't concentrate on anything these days.

____________________

jswarren:

LAGGING STATE POLLS....

The only reason I sometimes say state polls lag is because sometimes people will quote state polls in some states that look better than a national poll even if the state poll is a few days old. Not every swing state has a poll everyday. However, lately most do, especially PA. I would say that the state polls in OH, FL, and ESPECIALLY PA don't lag the national polls at ALL.

____________________

mysticlaker:

They are not crossing missippi yet....

upcoming mccain/palin schedule

10/30/2008 6:30:00 AM - Cape Girardeau, MO
Road to Victory Rally in Cape Girardeau, MO
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Cape Girardeau, MO on Thursday October 30th.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/30/2008 7:00:00 AM - Defiance, OH
Road to Victory Rally in Defiance, OH
Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Defiance, OH on Thursday October 30th.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/30/2008 1:15:00 PM - Erie, PA
Road to Victory Rally in Erie, PA
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Erie, PA on Thursday October 30th.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/30/2008 3:00:00 PM - Mentor , OH
Road to Victory Rally in Mentor, OH
Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Mentor, OH on Thursday October 30th.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/30/2008 4:00:00 PM - Williamsport , PA
Road to Victory Rally in Williamsport, PA
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Williamsport, PA on Thursday October 30th.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/31/2008 6:30:00 AM - Latrobe, PA
Road to Victory Rally in Latrobe, PA
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Latrobe, PA on Friday October 31st.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/31/2008 8:00:00 AM - Hanoverton , OH
Road to Victory Rally in Hanoverton, OH
Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Hanoverton, OH on Friday October 31st.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/31/2008 3:00:00 PM - Columbus, OH
Road to Victory Rally with John McCain & Arnold Schwarzenegger in Columbus, OH
Please join John McCain & Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger for a Road to Victory Rally in Columbus, OH on Friday, October 31st. Doors open at 3pm.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/31/2008 3:00:00 PM - York , PA
Road to Victory Rally in York, PA
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in York, PA on Friday October 31st.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/1/2008 9:00:00 AM - Springfield, VA
Road to Victory Rally in Springfield, VA
Please join Senator John McCain for his final Road to Victory Rally in Virginia. The event will be held on Saturday November 1st in Springfield, VA.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/1/2008 4:00:00 PM - Raleigh , NC
Road to Victory Rally in Raleigh, NC
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Raleigh, NC on Saturday November 1st.

____________________

UpstateProgressive:

If Obama wins VA and CO, McCain can just close up shop and go home. And McCain hasn't led VA or CO in a poll since Oct 1.

With Florida going Obama's way, McCain's chances are even slimmer. The national trackers are tightening slightly, but the state polls remain great for Obama.

I just don't see an Electoral College route to victory for McCain.

Too bad, because he's run such an honorable and distinguished campaign.
/snark.

____________________

BUS:

The Florida and Missouri numbers are actually quite bad for McCain. MO simply shouldn't be in play this late - like IN, NC, MT, GA, etc - and the FL result has McCain gaining precisely one single point.

Meanwhile, things settle in the Commonwealth in the high single digits, and the CO firewall solidifies with five days to go. Those are the numbers McCain really needs to be breaching, and in successive polls he's actually losing ground.

____________________

mysticlaker:

abc tracking poll:

52-44 O+1....

____________________

webim:

I'm for Obama but I'm afraid of one think .

THAT : 10/23-28/08

the issue that that was polled when all the national poll where at +8 and not now ....

____________________

Thatcher:

Rasmussen ALASKA:

10/28/2008 (10/06)
McCain 57% (+2)
Obama 41% (+1)
McCain +16 (+15)

____________________

JCK:

McCain is giving up on CO, NV, and NM.

To far to travel, and they're losing badly there. NV, with the new early voting data, looks like it's going to be in the blue column, almost certainly.

____________________

ThisLandIsMyLand:

Colorado and Virginia - WE LOVE YOU!!!!

____________________

mysticlaker:

Sorry, I should say M-1...

Same result.

52-44...

____________________

hirshnoc:

We may get solid CO on this. Ahhhh beautiful blue.....

____________________

ricbrig:

ABC/WaPo is not in boom's favorites so please disregard.

____________________

Thatcher:
____________________

lhtk:

Boy, VA, as has been the pattern for weeks now, just continues to be solid for Obama, with his own number nicely above 50. Now CO as well. Don't really see how this poll is in a McCain direction in FL. A little surprised on MO, but I'm just not ready to believe that Obama won't ultimately take that state. Would like to see more MO polls.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Uh oh! ABC TRACKING POLL MOVING THE WRONG WAY. If you're Boom:)

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6136936&page=1

____________________

Thatcher:

Rasmussen MICHIGAN

10/28/2008 (10/8)
Obama 53% (-3)
McCain 43% (+3)
Obama +10 (-6)

This is exactly what I was thinking ... the state polls from Rasmussen will show a tightening because these were done during Ras's tightening tracker.

____________________

Thatcher:

Rasmussen MINNESOTA

10/28/2008 (10/22)
Obama 55% (-1)
McCain 43% (+2)
Obama +12 (-3)

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

+6 is the logical margin. I posted that the last few days. It likely will tighten a point, or point and a half tops. Right now it's likely somewhat below 6. IMO, the key is to look at the net change in the national polls from day to day. Mark has that number at the far right of his table every day. It's been a net move toward McCain for several days.

Then you check if the state margins make sense with that +6. Virginia is out of whack, IMO, with a +9 in this poll. That state has never figured to be +3 blue in partisan index this cycle. More like even to perhaps +2 red. And so on.

I can't believe I was able to play Georgia at 1/2 a couple of nights ago. Seriously, how can an offshore book offer that price? Does he seriously think McCain has only a 2 of 3 chance to win Georgia? Actually, he must think it's lower than that, given the house take, the juice.

____________________

sherman:

Let's face it. Florida is a disaster for McCain and the GOP. Sure, VA and OH are bad, but FL and TX are the lynchpins that offset CA and NY for the GOP. Without FL, the GOP is just dust in the wind.

____________________

slegend:

Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa:
From Bush/McCain to Obama

No States:
From Kerry to Bush/McCain

Game - Set - Match

____________________

NW Patrick:

This is so funny. Obama WILL BE the next president. He has an AMAZING safety net. Kerry states plus NM CO and IA and it's over. Then LEADS, even big leads, in OH and VA. Add leads in Florida... Where's the path McCain? ROFL

____________________

Nowukkers:

Boom
Yeah, that campaign finance law that McCain helped write. If he does what you're suggesting, it highlights an example of the ineffectiveness of McCain-authored legislation - what good's he going to be in the WH? Even a desperate McCain wouldn't do that. Right now he seems to be doing the "We can't let the Dems control both the legislature and the executive - see what a disaster it was when ... um ... the GOP did it ...sorry"

____________________

Thatcher:

Rasmussen ALASKA:

10/28/2008 (10/06)
Obama 41% (+1)
McCain 57% (+2)
McCain +16 (+1)

____________________

mago:

"MO has a HUGE AA population"

Umm, I think it's about average, maybe 11% or 12%. My native St. Louis has a very large AA population, the rest of the state not so much. MO's racial demographics are rather similar to Ohio's.

A pretty nice set of polls...I believe that Obama needs 1 of these states, any one. He's pretty much certain, at this point, to get VA and CO, and FL would be gravy...very tasty gravy.

____________________

NW Patrick:

O + 10 in New Mexico per RAS!

____________________

Thatcher:

Rasmussen ALASKA:

10/28/2008 (10/06)
Obama 41% (+1)
McCain 57% (+2)
McCain +16 (+1)

____________________

boolean_radley:

@boom

IF MCCAIN IS SMART

It's been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is not.

____________________

Washingtonian1:

Missouri may well be the outlier in an Obama landslide. I have relatives there and its far more "culturally conservative" than people realize.

____________________

burrito:

@Thatcher:

"Rasmussen ALASKA: ..."

More importantly,

10/28/2008(10/06)
Begich 52%(48%) gain/loss : +4
Stevens 44%(49%) gain/loss : -5

____________________

Chris1966:

Looks like everything is going Obama's way even an attack on Syria won't stop this now.

Are there moves afoot to get McCain support the GOP in states to support Republicans and try to prevent Obama achieving the magic number 60 in the Senate?

Will be interesting to see what McCain does in the coming days

____________________

lhtk:

Thanks, Washingtonian1 (that's my current home state, btw). But . . . I don't want that to be the case. Seriously, I'm not sure we could have an Obama "landslide" without MO.

Actually, how are we defining "landslide," anyway? Are we going by 538 Nate's "definition" of 375 or more EVs?

(Just for the record, I'll be happy with just an Obama win, by any margin. But I'll admit to some greedy tendencies when I look at a lot of these state polls.)

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@boomshak

Not to discourage you from continuing your participation around here, but have you got any idea of how pathetic you are sounding? On the other hand, there are smidgens of intelligent life over from where you emanate, and I am starting to feel sorry for you. If you like, I'll conjure up an image of Boomshak like King Kong, up there on the Empire State Building, a little admired, a little loved, but doomed. Yes, doooooooooomed.

____________________

RussTC3:

I don't feel like going back to look at what the numbers were from the last survey's with 3rd parties, but here are the numbers for these states with 3rd parties:

Colorado, 10/23-28 (10/11-14 in parenthesis)
Obama 50
McCain 43
Nader 4
Barr 2
McKinney *

Florida, 10/23-28 (10/11-14 in parenthesis)
Obama 50
McCain 45
Nader 2
Barr 1
McKinney *

Georgia, 10/23-28 (10/11-14 in parenthesis)
Obama 50
McCain 46
Barr 3

Missouri, 10/23-28 (10/11-14 in parenthesis)
McCain 48
Obama 46
Nader 4
Barr 1

Virginia, 10/23-28 (10/19-21 in parenthesis)
Obama 51
McCain 42
Barr 3
Nader 2
McKinney *

Differences between polls without 3rd parties and with 3rd parties (in parenthesis):

Colorado
Obama +8 (+7)

Florida
Obama +4 (+5)

Georgia
McCain +5 (+4)

Missouri
McCain +2 (+2)

Virginia
Obama +9 (+9)

So Obama gains one point in Florida and Georgia, loses one point in Colorado and stays the same in Missouri and Virginia when 3rd parties are included.

____________________

RussTC3:

So, poll with 3rd parties for Georgia should read 50/46 McCain, not Obama.

____________________

weigh in, with 6 days to go. I do believe the make or break State for everything to collapse heavily on McCain is INDIANA. If exit polls and early hard data show Indiana very close or a lead for Obama, all flood gates will open. And the potential for over 400 EVs is there.

Here is what I believe are the thresholds and the “dam breaking” potential for Obama come next Tuesday. Based on what I see from early voting, ground-game operations, public and private polling, and consensus among pundits (from FOX to CNN to MSNBC).

286 EV (90% chance)
1st Water Mark (the dam is cracking)
KERRY STATES + IA + VA + NM + CO

338 EV (75% chance)
2nd Water Mark (the dam has huge cracks)
1st WM + FL, OH, NV

375 EV (60% chance)
3rd Water Mark (the dam has broken!)
2nd WM + IN, MO, NC

393 EV (45% chance)
4th Water Mark (the city has flooded!)
3rd WM + ND, GA

411 EV (30% chance)
5th Water Mark (the county has flooded!)
4th WM + MT + AZ + WV

420 EV (15% chance)
6th Water Mark (holy sh*t)
5th WM + MS + SD

The third water mark minus 1 of those pickups is the MOST LIKELY scenario.

PREDICTION: OBAMA 349-375 EVs

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

So when polling agencies release these polls and it doesnt have the 3rd party candidates ,barr, nader, i believe they are the only ones on the ballot in most states, does that mean people weren't allowed to say they're supporting the 3rd party nom.'s?

____________________

RussTC3:

Ugh, I don't know if the last item posted:

Georgia w/ 3rd parties I listed above should be 50/46 for McCain, not Obama.

Sorry.

____________________

bmrKY:

"boomshak:
IF MCCAIN IS SMART:

He will use Obama's super-expensive commercial tonight to launch a discussion about the Campaign Finance Fraud Obama has used to get the money to pay for"

Yeah, because the American voters need yet another reminder about how angry and nasty McCain is, and how all he does is spew hatred and negativity while proposing ABSOLUTELY NO new ideas for the future.

Yep, that sounds like a great plan, boom****.

____________________

SmarterThanYou:

I remember Obama being down by 3 going into the MO primary. Maybe they are underestimating the black and college vote?

____________________

political_junki:

boomshak:
"IF MCCAIN IS SMART"


If someone is getting political advice from you, he maybe many many things but not smart :-)

____________________

KMartDad08:

I think it may be tough for a Dem to get more than 48% in MO. Clinton won MO in 92 & 96, but he didn't get more than 48 (Perot took some Bush/Dole votes those years). Nader may generate enough interest to drag McCain down a bit. Obama will do very well in KC & St Louis.

____________________

Atomique:

McSame's *only* remotely plausible path to 270 is (or at least was) to hold onto all the Bush states except for IA and NM. He's not going to win PA, so he can't afford to lose NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, or FL. And at this point it looks like he will win three or four of those states max.

Change is coming to America, folks! So to all the Republicans, racists and religious bigots out there, you'll just have to get used to President Barack Hussein Obama!

____________________

RaleighNC:

Why is Georgia yellow?

____________________

RossPhx:

Tuesday Temps in Twenty Toss-Up Towns

Florida
Miami Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Tampa Mostly sunny, with a high near 78
Orlando Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Jacksonville A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74.

Ohio
Cleveland Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Cincinnati Sunny, with a high near 64.

North Carolina
Charlotte Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Raleigh Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Winston-Salem Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Missouri
St Louis Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.
Kansas City Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.
Springfield Mostly sunny, with a high near 68

Indiana
Indianapolis Sunny, with a high near 64.
Gary Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

Georgia
Atlanta Partly sunny, with a high near 64.
Savannah Partly sunny, with a high near 72.

Nevada
Las Vegas Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Reno A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.

Colorado
Denver Partly sunny, with a high near 60.

North Dakota
Bismarck Partly sunny, with a high near 49.

____________________

TJIRISH34:

I will say it again! I find it amusing the way the media is trying to put doubt into this election. New yahoo News headline: "Polls Show race Tightening" Then details of article show Obama leading in just about every battleground state McCain needs to win. LMAO

____________________

billreef:

boomshakalaka

So I guess we'll be hearing much less from you as we approach Tuesday, eh?

____________________

cinnamonape:

Some interesting early voter results from Florida.

Latest #’s posted for Orange County, FL

Dem 45,005 (60%)
R 16,275 (21%)
Other 13,810 (18.5%)
TTL 75,090

This is almost as many as the entire EV period in 2004. I’m sure 2004 was exceeded today.
Dem 37,604 (47.5%)
R 25,595 (32.3%)
Other 16,003 (20.2%)
ttl 79,202

Clearly there is far greater Democratic turnout than 2004 it both % and actual numbers. The Republican turnout appears to be depressed both in percentage and actual numbers...although this will not be clear until the final day of early voting (which I believe is Friday). But they are only at about 2/3rds the turnout they were in 2004 (9000 less). The Democrats are 7000 up of their FINAL 2004 numbers.

____________________

radmod:

Re: The Myth of Lag

I have to disagree that State polls do not lag behind National polls. While what is provided is a good technical physical description of the lag 'myth' being wrong, I believe a psychological lag does occur. The electorate has always been a shifting beast, owing allegiance to no-one in particular, except perhaps the moment.
The idea would be like this:
State shows candidate A up by 2 while at the same time the National shows candidate B up by 2. Days later the State then shows candidate B up by 2. Why? Because of "mob mentality" people begin to switch to the winner at the time. That is why we tend to have 'surges' and 'trends'. When a candidate does better nationally, then he starts to do better locally. Yet when a major event occurs the 'surge' can take time to work itself into the local thought process.

____________________

radmod:

@RossPhx:

Rotten Republican Weather Reports!

Not what they want to see!

(reminds me of the West Wing episode where the guy 'makes' it rain!)

____________________

TheLioness:

@boomshak

I've donated to the Obama campaign every month for 4 months now, whatever I could at the time, as have many of my friends and family. Tell you what, how about we have a national call to all those who donated via Senator Obama's website with their credit and bank cards to send your royal assness our statements showing the donations (with credit card and other vulnerable information redacted of course). Seriously. why don't you set up a web site clearing house where everyone can personally show you that they'd give every penny extra their households have in order to elect such a rare and wonderful man to the White House. Do it boom****. Put your money where your hateful little mouth is and take up the challenge, or shut the hell up.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR