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CNN/TIME: CO, MI, PA, WV, MT (9/21-23)

Topics: PHome

CNN / TIME / ORC
9/21-23/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Colorado 794 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Michigan 755 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 46
Obama 49, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 2, McKinney 1

Pennsylvania 730 LV, 3.5%
Obama 53, McCain 44
OBama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1

West Virginia 694 LV, 3.5%
McCain 50, Obama 46
McCain 49, Obama 44, Nader 5, McKinney 1

Montana 737 LV, 3.5%
McCain 54, Obama 43
McCain 49, Obama 40, Nader 1, Barr 1

 

Comments
DecaturMark:

McCain cannot like these #'s

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Save US:

Guys... I think Obama just challenged McCain to a debate on the economy... :)

Will make him look clueless... :))))

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Indiana4Obama:

More good news here for Obama. Lot's of good news lately for Obama, which even many conservatives are finding it hard to ignore.

Colorado is huge...seems to be a state leaning towards Obama.

Holding onto MI and PA is critical, so these numbers look about right.

A lot can happen until election day. Things can change easily. But Obama and his campaign have to be feeling confident, especially w/ the enthusiasm and ground game he has behind him.

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Eternal:

Wow, no wonder McCain threw a "Hail Mary" today.


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1magine:

Oh no Obama is losing MT - hope he doesn't panic and do something foolish. Ahh - what am I thinking presidential candidates don't panic....

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NW Patrick:

This debate PLOY is really turning on McCain just reading posts, blogs, and news stories. DEBATE MCCAIN YOU WUSS.

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Justin:

If McCain can't take 90 minutes on a Friday night to debate Obama in front of the American people he may as well suspend his campaign indefinitely.

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Indiana4Obama:

I'm surprised West Virginia is looking so competitive.

Right now Obama's electoral map is looking closer to Bill Clinton's than John Kerry's.

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Unbiased08:

I'm going to go ahead and make a call for Montana right now.

Senator John McCain from Arizona has won Montana's 3 electoral votes.

It's the other 267 he should be worried about.

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carl29:

Yeah...guys, we know: biased, flawed, bad, liberal poll :-)

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glober:

PA should go back to blue very shortly. And McCain now has a problem with WV, which will most certainly become very competitive by Nov 4th. Expect a lot of $ to be spent there by both camps. Obama will win Michigan and loose Montana. We can all agree on that.

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IndependentThinker:

Guys this thing looks like it will be over sooner than expected
I don't know how any decent supporter of McCain can spin those numbers

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Iowa City:

Montana's 3 EVs are safe for McCain. Obama's northern Prairie/northern Rocky Mountain strategy (read MT, ND) is not coming together as hoped.

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Save US:

boomshak is surprisingly missing today... maybe is suspended his reading of these polls also... :)

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Stillow:

What is this? I go to lunch and all hell breaks loose...McCain suspends his campaign to go work on the financial mess....Obama rejects suspending his..........what the.....

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NW Patrick:

McCain HAS to try to stop this debate and SPIN it as "Country 1st" Momentum is going 100 MPH today and leading into Friday... Although it's a foreign policy debate..HOW EASY will it be for Obama to tie the war to the financial crisis? Answer - EASY AS PIE.

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bmcavan:

I have to say that this presidential election has been absolutely fascinating. I am so glad my new job doesn't start until after the election so I can watch this poll by poll, press release by press release.

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CaliforniaIndie:

I'm astounded that WV is this close. So that ARG poll from last week is not an ugly outlier? If this trend holds, McCain has gotta feel like he's back on the ropes. Will wait and see what the next polls look like (I'm pretty sure a ton of pollsters will now go to work on this state).

Thing is, neither campaign really has a strategy for WV. Obama all but ceded it during the primaries.

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BLeigh82:

I propose a suspension of all polls until the economic crisis is solved. Also, in this time of national crisis, I propose that no snide, rude, and or ridiculous claims be made on these message boards during these tough ecomonic times.

I suggest that you all agree with me and suspend your comments in kind.

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AmericaFirst:

Boomshat is around today...talking about how even though McCain thinks he is losing we shouldn't believe it because McCain is a liberal biased against McCain...or something like that.

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marctx:

Obama rejects country and puts politics first...

Breaking News >> Obama Rejects McCain Call to Postpone Debate

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Justin:

Rep. Barney Frank told a group of reporters outside the House chamber:

"It's the longest Hail Mary pass in the history of either football or Marys."

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RaleighNC:

PA number seems surprising. The rest are not huge surprises considering the CO momentum Barry has now.

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NW Patrick:

If I was Obama, I would AT LEAST send Hillary into WV to campaign. The Clintons won the state twice.

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JFactor:

This is a make or break moment for McCain's campaign. Seriously. How this "suspension" thing works out decides the faith of this election. McCain is really desperate and he might get it to work but he's taking another big risk. Interesting times...
_______________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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Indiana4Obama:

As a diehard Dem I'm thrilled about these polls.

I am surprised, however, how completely unprepared and unpresidential Mccain has appeared over the past two weeks. And not just with the economy, but with responses to everything ranging from Spain to his decision today.

Conventional wisdom said to win Obama had to prove he was up for the job. I'm not sure many people expected Mccain to prove so decidedly that he wasn't up for the job.

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change:

PA, MI most important for obama, he can easily win without carrying the others. Mcsame is very desperate, i mean very very desperate.. I am proud to say that Nov.4 we will elect our first African American President..YES WE CAN., YES WE CAN .. YES WE CAN.. YES WE CAN..

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IndependentThinker:

@Save US:

"boomshak is surprisingly missing today... maybe is suspended his reading of these polls also... :)"

This one is so funny :-)
LMAO!

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JCK:

WV is a surprise. Bodes well for him in the rural areas of VA, NC, OH, PA, and IN.

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Save US:

This just show that if McCain had to deal with an economic crisis and a war at the same time he would have to suspend working on one of them... Tell the enemy to wait... i have an economic crisis to take care of...

What a confused old man... I feel sorry for him..

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NW Patrick:

marctx could you follow the party line any further? It's a political scheme and already shaping up as such. Look around the articles and political blogs..always gives you a feel for how people are reacting.

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carl29:

Guys, McCain looks like lost, totally confused. Doesn't know what to do. He doesn't know if he goes or comes, totally out of place. Obviously that if the subject is the economy, McCain is toast!!!

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Trosen:

I don't see many independents or leaning dems seeing this as anything other than a desperate ploy, and a hollow one at that. Hail Mary one (Palin) incomplete. Hail Mary 2 (thrown into a crowd of defenders.. might get picked off). How many does he have left?

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GeorgeHusseinBush:

So how much longer until Michigan and Pennsylvania get turned back to blue for Obama?

Oh and McCain is running away from these debates like a dog with his tail between his legs. Awesome!

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Justin:

Obama is live taking questions now.

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Batony:

I was almost right...didn't expect that 9 in PA, but was almost right on the button with the others. And didn't expect the 9 in MT. Considering this is CNN. I'm not surprise.

Still only 5 in MI according to CNN.

Postpone the debate? It's 2 days before the debate, and we have a sitting President. Why? This is just dumb. It makes him look weak, especially since he is polling so badly. Just dumb.

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AmericaFirst:

McCain is like that crazy guy you went to school with. You never know what he's gonna do but at least you'll be entertained.

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HaloFan:

If any something or anything comes out of the house and senate at the end of this week that will help the economy, McCain’s move would be brilliant, since he will be able to claim that it was because he put everything aside to help the country. However if nothing happens then this could be the beginning of the end for McCain.

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Scott in PacNW:

Snap, snap, snap!

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VermontWisdom:

Yet another poll that shows WV close. I trust that has been noticed in the Obama camp. I remember Joe Manchin, WV governor, said right after Hillary suspended her campaign that Obama could win WV. All he had to do was come there and connect with the people, show them that he cared about their needs. This is a state that voted for Carter in the Reagan Landslide, Dukakis, and Clinton twice. Gore's loss of WV was a shocker, but the Republicans focused on the social issues as they did in '04. Also Gore's comments on the coal indusrty were used against him. Now with the economy front and center, WV is defintely in play.

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Tyler:

Wow, that's a hell of a result on PA. I'm a little hesitant to even beleive it, but the other results all seem perfectly credible and consistent with recent polling.

Seems like McCain believes it, or he wouldn't be trying yet another Palin-like "steal the spotlight" gimmick.

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jswarren:

McCain threw a hail mary pass during halftime and hoped it would count on the scoreboard.

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Scott in PacNW:

It's like 1996 all over again.

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Flashlight:

Sigh of relief on those PA numbers.


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jswarren:

If Pollster.com is now labeling Colorado a "lean Obama", how can they now do the same for Pennsylvania?

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Batony:

Obama,

Don't waste your money in WVa. Per capita, probably the most racist state in the country.

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JCK:

jswarren,

I don't think this poll has been added to the data used in the map yet.


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HaloFan:

FIRST: McCain’s hail marry is still up in the air. Paylin has generated the base and is attracting thousands to her rallies. At this moment Paylin is not hurting McCain.

SECOND: And to all you liberal trolls out there. The debate this Friday is on foreign affairs – why would McCain run away from that. It’s his strong point. Please be reasonable when you post your insanity.

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jamesia:

Holy crap. Great Obama numbers. Time to change McCain's Depends...

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IndependentThinker:

@marctx:

"Obama rejects country and puts politics first...

Breaking News >> Obama Rejects McCain Call to Postpone Debate"

Get your facts straight
He said we can do both
This is just a clear proof that he can handle economic crisis and 2 wars at the same time contrary to McCain but you might have a different view, it's your right after all

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1magine:

*****Leak ********* Some are saying Bush has asked top attorneys in Justice to draft memo re: Constitutional underpinning to temporarily suspend Nov. election while financial crisis is ongoing.

Stay tuned folks - this will be a rocky landing to be sure.

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marty:

What I would like to see is Obama say, "OK, Biden and I will go to Washington with McC and work on the crisis, but Palin has to go home to Alaska. But the debates go on, since we are supposed to be able to respond to crises in areas like foreign policy or the economy without a week of practice.
That's a real debate. Let the debates take the place of candidates flying around the country mostly raising money and trying for a 5 second soundbite. After all, Ob can out raise McC 2 to 1 on the internet.

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marctx:

Obama would rather win an election than fix our economy.

"if you need me call me", Obama says. hahaha. The leadership America needs??

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KipTin:

Funny... Obama just stated that McCain was "more decisive... uh... in his mind" regarding the suspension of McCain's campaign.

Obama is trying to do "catch-up" and a lot of explaining. Talkin' to Reid and Pelosi "round the clock." In my opinion, not discussing the bailout legislation but rather campaign tactics.

"...only do one thing and suspend everything else..." AHA. I see Obamanation must have been texted/emailed their blogging points as it has already appeared here on Pollster en masse.

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Save US:

HaloFan:

You should probably try to spell the Republican VP candidate name right before you can tell us what you know about us trolls... :)

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thoughtful:

Obama is being very presidential. McCain is running scared. Presidents got to do more than one thing!

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NW Patrick:

John McCain has skipped more votes during this session than any member of the Senate except for Tim Johnson, who had major brain surgery. He has cast a single vote in five months, since April 9. All of a sudden, McCain is demanding that the presidential race shut down so he can return to Washington?

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KipTin:

Huh... IndependentThinker stated "This is just a clear proof that he can handle economic crisis and 2 wars at the same time.."

Obama is handling the economic crisis and two wars? Since when?

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Trosen:

Batony is right.. no chance in hell WV goes blue. But if McCain even has to spend 5 minutes there to shore up a state like WV.. that in itself a win for Obama.

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HaloFan:

PALIN
OK

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KipTin:

West Virginia is made for Palin to campaign in.

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carl29:

I think that the WV poll is good not in terms of picking up that state in Nov., but in terms of the demographics that state represents. WV is a niche of those Appaliachian voters that were so resistant to Obama during the primaries. The fact that he is not getting clobered more than 2-1 bolds very well for him in those rural/Appalichian areas in PA, OH, VA. If Obama gets 40% of the vote in the Appaliachian area of PA, combined by big margins in the metro/more urban areas, there is no way McCain can make it, no way.

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NW Patrick:

Mmm I can't wait for the NBC News WSJ Poll. It's gonna be ugly.

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Save US:

HaloFan:

Its cool... she probably can't spell it either... :)

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macsuk:

Kip Tin

Actually West Virginia is made for Palin to life in.

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Batony:

OK...maybe I jumped the gun. Friday's debate is supposedly McCain's strong point. I have to be careful with these knee jerk reactions.

These polls are nice, but can someone tell me the last time CNN has been accurate?

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marty:

Re. HaloFan...I agree. Why would McC run away from the foreign policy debate? He seems to be doing just that. Surely he could spare a few hours to fly down and do the debate.
So, let's try and think about why he would want to avoid the debate. Oh, so many great ideas come to mind. The juxtaposition between youth and age on a national stage? The fact that McC's foreign policy is his least "maverick" part, and his positions are pretty identical with those of W Bush? Or, perhaps, just the fact that he is not very bright and tends to fly off the handle and say things that could ruin his final last-gasp chances. Well, certainly my fellow bloggers can think of other reasons why he is, inarguably, fleeing his moment of potential triumph.

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NW Patrick:

Or how about the FACT that Obama will tie BILLIONS per month in Iraq to SOME of our problems with debt, the weak US Dollar, our markets, loss of lives, AND FOR WHAT?

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

You cannot measure the reaction of average people by what bloggers and analysts say...bloggers are partisan so they will disagree no matter what hte other side does....and analysts and columnists are out of touch as it is......
This move by McCain may prove fruitful.....he is already on record saying he'd rather lose an election than lose a war....this kinda goes along those same lines.....may gowell for him......obama may have made a mistake not suspending also to address the issue for a short time.

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sumd22:

Batony, not sure how you can call a state that's 46% for Obama the most racist in the USA. Your opinion is one thing, but facts are another.

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NW Patrick:

Stillow bet me?

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s.b.:

Um debating the economy does nothing to fix the problem. They should both be back at work in the senate until this is resolved. Oh that's right Obama doesn't actually ever do his job, he just campaigns for president as an absentee first erm junior senator.

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macsuk:

Ras has Obama up 50 to 47 in Colorado

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NW Patrick:

Stillow if you think for one moment that the MEDIA DOESN'T DECIDE how tactics will be framed overall you are crazy. Let's see how this plays out. Desperate is today's key word.

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JCK:

carl29,

My thoughts exactly. I pointed this out yesterday, but some of the SE Ohio counties boarding WV and PA, Obama lost by 50, 60, or even 70 points. His 55/45 margins in the cities were not enough to make up for that kind of deficit.

That he's within single digits in WV, and losing by less than 20 points in KY is great sign for his chances in any of the states you mention. I'd add NC and IN to the list as well.

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GboroNC:

I cannot see a logical reason for McCain doing this unless his goal is to avoid the debates and get a photo-op. First off McCain has said the economy is not his strong point and that he is more of a foreign policy person. What exactly does he bring to the table on this question? So far I have been very unimpressed with his knowledge of the basics of home mortgage crisis and I cannot see this amounting to anything except another cook spoiling the broth.

Honestly how is McCain helping anything by jumping in the middle of this? He would have been better off doing the presidential thing, consulting qualified people such as Greenspan and incorporating their insight into his plan rather than doing all this showboating.


Oh well it is silly season.

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thoughtful:

If you were down 9 points in the polls what would you do.

Well the polls are no longer the lead story>

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DecaturMark:

What would happen if the country had an emergency (like a financial crisis) at the same time had something else occuring (I don't know, like an election) should we suspend the election to deal with the financial crisis? Just a hypothetical.

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Batony:

Rasmussen has Obama 50 McCain 47 in Co...

Colorado is way too close to since McCain has basically ignored it. I believe in the end that's the state this election will ride on...

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jamesugw:

Just saw Obama on CNN re- this ridiculous McCain stunt...Obama dealt with it perfectly

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Save US:

My friends... The Fundamentals of our economy is strong....

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

I have no idea how it will turn out, I was just letting you know you cannot use bloggers to represent reaction by average folks...bloggers by nature are highly partisan. and the media is out of touch...if the media decided how elections turned out, a republican would never ever win a single race!

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marctx:

Palin Still Viewed More Favorably Than Biden

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

A month after they were named the vice presidential candidates of their respective parties, Sarah Palin is still viewed more favorably by voters than Joseph Biden, 54% to 49%.

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NW Patrick:

stillow? Really? Fox news is BY A MILE the most watched news channel in the US. Now what were you saying?

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Dana Adini:

let's suspend the election until McCain's numbers get better. The debate is really how got here, and that's pretty obvious.

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macsuk:

Obama just nailed his press conference. He said a President will need to be able to do more then one thing at a time..Ouch!

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NW Patrick:

Batony McCain hasnt IGNORED IT LOL Palin was just there. They have a HUGE, existing ground game there, especially in CO Springs.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election

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IndependentThinker:

@KipTin

I meant it's a proof he can handle multiple things at the same time contrary to McCain who seems not being capable of attending a 90mn-debate in 48 hours along with managing his campaign and this economic crisis
Hummmm it sounds fishy and gimmick
I remember Rick Davis said this election is not about issues that Americans care about(including the economy obviously) so my question is why they want to suspend their campaign because of an issue that Americans care about, it sounds contradictory to me!

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faithhopelove:

The biggest surprise here is the WV poll. 3 polls in a row have shown Obama to be within 4-5 points of McCain there.

The MT poll shows Obama down 9 points with 3rd-party candidates included--but not Ron Paul! Ron Paul is on the ballot there.

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RaleighNC:

StrategicVision has PA +1 for Obama...should stay yellow when that one is added.

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AmericaFirst:

So what's McCain going to do? The debate is happening. Will he show?

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

Fox is center right there's no doubt about it, but every other network is center left or kooky left (msnbc)....and 9 out of 10 newspapers are left...and most are far left of center.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Obama rejects country and puts politics first...
Breaking News >> Obama Rejects McCain Call to Postpone Debate"

Breaking news, McCain can't handle a crisis and a debate at the same time. How can he handle being president?

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Save US:

marctx:

People are more comfortable with Biden as president...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,427241,00.html

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"The MT poll shows Obama down 9 points with 3rd-party candidates included--but not Ron Paul! Ron Paul is on the ballot there."

This needs to be polled. Ron Paul could pick up 10% to 15% of the votes, at most. However, that could be more than enough to swing the election.

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NW Patrick:

RCP Average 09/14 - 09/23 -- 50.2 44.8 Obama +5.4
CNN/Time 09/21 - 09/23 RV 51 47 Obama +4
Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/23 700 LV 50 47 Obama +3
InAdv/PollPosition 09/23 - 09/23 505 LV 50 41 Obama +9
PPP (D) 09/20 - 09/21 1084 LV 51 44 Obama +7
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 09/14 - 09/21 1418 LV 49 45 Obama +4

I love Colorado.

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Stillow:

I can just see it now, McCain back in DC talking about the economy and Obama debating an empty chair in his debate this Friday......the only question I have is, will he still lose the debate?

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mirrorball:
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nick-socal:

Obama quote from his press conference:

"It's my belief that this is exactly the time when the American people need to hear from the person who in approximately 40 days will be responsible for dealing with this mess," Obama said in a news conference in Clearwater, Fla. "It's going to be part of the president's job to deal with more than one thing at once."

Pfft.... that's the sound of McCain's 'hail mary' pass flying out of bounds and landing on the sidelines.

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AmericaFirst:

Fox is center-right--LOL

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Justin:

McCain is scared to death of this debate. Why? McCain has a very large edge in foreign policy in the polls. He has a large perceived advantage in this category. Obama, on the other hand, is way behind in this category and has very little to lose.

McCain's edge is largely a result of his experience both as a pilot and a senator. People look at his history and think he must know what he's talking about. This is, however, a man who struggles with understanding the different factions in Iraq. This is a man who does not know what Middle Eastern countries border one another. This is a man who needed Joe Lieberman to correct him multiple times concerning "Al Qaeda in Iran." This is a man who said the following concerning the war in Iraq:

“Because I know that as successful as I believe we will be, and I believe that the success will be fairly easy...” [9/24/02]

“We’re not going to get into house-to-house fighting in Baghdad. We may have to take out buildings, but we’re not going to have a bloodletting of trading American bodies for Iraqi bodies.” [9/29/02]

“But the point is that, one, we will win this conflict. We will win it easily.” [1/22/03]

This is why McCain is afraid. This is why he has suspended his campaign. McCain has a lot to lose when it comes to his perceived edge on foreign policy.

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Batony:

Strategic Vision:

Pennsylvania: Obama 47% McCain 46%
Florida: McCain 48% Obama 45%

These polls are starting to bother me...

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kerrchdavis:

CO Polls today:

O-50 M-41 I/A
O-51 M-47 CNN
O-50 M-47 Ras

In EVERY poll, Obama is at or exceeds 50. This is VERY good news.

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Indiana4Obama:

Mccain is losing control of this campaign, plain and simple.

Friday's debate was a chance for him to steer the conversation away from his weak point and change the media's focus from the economy to foreign policy.

Now for every ad about Obama putting country second he'll get hit with imcompetence ads that implies a man with his age and loss of bearings can't handle more than one big thing at once.

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AmericaFirst:

More like a change up that the batter saw comer and crushed.

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jamesia:

"The Presidential debate should go forward as planned. . . it’s my belief that’s this is exactly the time that the American people need to hear from the person…who, in approximately forty days will be responsible for dealing with this mess….It’s going to be part of the president’s job to deal with more than one thing at once. I think there’s no reason why we can’t be constructive in helping to solve this problem and also tell the American people what we believe, and where we stand, where we want to take the country. So in my mind actually it’s more important than ever that we present ourselves to the American people and try to describe where we want to take the country and where we want to take the economy, as well as dealing with some of the issues of foreign policy that were initially the subject of the debate." - Barack Obama

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Basil:

Country first. What a joke. I'd like to know when McCain found out how bad the polls were going to be--and how much time he'll spend working on the next play while he's in DC putting the country first.

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kerrchdavis:

McCain is in deep trouble now. If he shows up for the debate, it looks like he is bending to Obama's will. If he doesnt, it looks like he cant do 2 things at once. Not a good spot to be.

The other thing to consider: Americans WANT to see the debate. You ever been to a concert where the band canceled at the last minute? They do NOT get a good reception, no matter what the reason.

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rami:

Well, I guess Obama could now reduce the effort in PA somewhat, and redirect financial and human ressources to the other big yellow states.

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thoughtful:

@Stillow

Your guy will do anything to win the election. Lets hope the American people will see him for the scumbag and Liar he is

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Fox is center right there's no doubt about it, but every other network is center left or kooky left (msnbc)....and 9 out of 10 newspapers are left...and most are far left of center."

That explains why the media was so hostile to Bush during the run-up to the Iraq war.

The media is run by massive corporations, which tend to be right of center.

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faithhopelove:

The trend in recent PA polls goes Obama +0.4, +2, +3, +4, and +8.

Obama has just increased his advertising there. See:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/24/obama_ramps_up_ad_spending.html

Biden visits the state tomorrow and Friday. He will tour the state with Hillary in October.

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nick-socal:

Why did Pollster put CO back to yellow?

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ronnie:

I would be missing too (with these numbers) if I were Republican, lol...I honestly think the McCain camp is in total panic and unsure of how to counter this strong surge in the polls by Obama...I also think McCain is trying to buy himself more time to prep for the debate...It's becoming more critical that he turns in a spectacular debate performace, something I don't think he's capable of regardless of the topic.

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steve1128:

Watch WV in the next few weeks. The whole state is on track with rural VA. If WV keeps moving toward Obama, you can paint VA dark blue and Ohio light blue. Now what about Kentucky?

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faithhopelove:

M. Obama and Jill Biden are campaigning in PA today.

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Justin:

There is a mistake in the input on Pennsylvania on the PA page. This poll was entered as 43/44 instead of 53/44.

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Stillow:

Hey if BO gets elected and a tough issues comes to his desk, will he vote present?

Some of you probably aren't as old as me, but I remember 1980 like it was yesterday. The last time we elected a liberal president to go along with a democrat controlled congress was 1976.....and hte country thru Carter out so fast they didn't even blink. So although I am voting for McCain, I don't mind if Obama wins. The country tends to forget how horrible liberals are when they get power and they'll toss BO out after one term like they did Carter. After all, I never would have otten Reagan if Carter wasn't a horrible president. No pain no gai nright? After four years of liberalism this country voted Reagan in twice in two of the biggest landslides we'ev ever had.....so part of me wnats a BO win, part of me doesn't......

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vmval1:

Kerr:

I hope this is how it is perceived. Third alternative is: McCain is busy trying to help fix problems while Obama is trying to talk about problems.

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HaloFan:

Ronnie you are an idiot....

Mccain has wanted to debate town hall meeting with obama all the time, and this debate is onForeign affairs
stop your dribble

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Shaft:

Good polls, relatively large sample sizes, I would still like to see the internals, but we assume the MI, PA and CO are going for BO.

We all expected MI and PA, CO is the icing. We need to see movement in OH and FL to ensure a safe landing.

The McStrain is showing on the Maverick!

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AmericaFirst:

Stillow: Did you vote for Clinton (Bill that is)?

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kerrchdavis:

@stillow

No, but McCain might ask to have the issue postponed.

____________________

NorseSoccer:

The Pennsylviania numbers are O/M 53/44 here but are O/M 43/44 on the summary state page.

Just FYI....

____________________

thoughtful:

McCain surrogates all over FOX.

Hail Mary needed to disrupt Obama's Big Mo!

____________________

laguna_b:

@Stillow

The one thing you CAN count on with Republican presidents is BLOW OUT DEFICITS. First $Trillion was for Iraq and tax cuts to the rich, Second $trillion is Wall Street Bailout. We haven't seen massive deficits like this since...REAGAN! His was the S&L bailout and his military industrial complex $trillion.

Clinton...SURPLUSSES

____________________

Stillow:

@AmericaFirst:

I voted for Clinton in 1996, but Bush in 1992....Clinton was a southern moderate, a self described new Democrat....I thought the Dems finally figured out how to win nationa lelections, by not nominating a liberal.....but after Bill they went right back to there liberal ways.

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marctx:

CNN/MSNBC/Fox

split screen coverage tomorrow:

McCain working in congress/Obama campaigning

____________________

apologist42:

Again, this reflects McCain's tendency to overreact in times of crisis, rather than allow the experts and the existing "leader" (Bush) do what they're supposed to do; especially since they've been working on it for a week now.

Comments like "I'd fire the head of the SEC" among other reactionary comments should absolutely scare the American people. This is the guy who's shaky finger you want on the Button? No thanks.

____________________

Batony:

The latest poll to come out for Obama in PA is +1.

I really feel sorry for Obama supporters who are salivating over these poll numbers. I don't know if you guys are new to this process, but you need to keep in mind there is a long way to go. If you act this way over every poll, then you will be in intensive care by election day.

____________________

carl29:

Since Rasmussen's numbers for CO are the exact same as CNN's, which one is the liberal, biased, flawed poll?

____________________

Stillow:

Ahhh, the late 70's....22% interest rates and gas lines....those were the good ole' days.

I actually thought the country ran fairly well under a Dem president and a conservative Congress in hte 90's. As we saw with Carter i nthe late 70's....and Bush in the early 00's here now...one party rule doesn't work very well.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@carl29

If I were Boomshak, I would explain how both of these polls are outliers. And they both:

FAIL ;D

____________________

zotz:

Stillow-
Of course if it is a repeat of 1932 that means the Dems will be in office for 20 years. It's better not to live in the past. I have a feeling Roosevelt's greatness will outlive Reagan's.

____________________

laguna_b:

@marktx

Split screen showing McCain working? You mean in his office having staff read him email while he waits for the committee to call for a vote?

____________________

steve1128:

@ Batony and KipTin

Have you ever been in WV? I don't think so if you believe Obama has no chance here. There is no way that this is the most racist state in the country even if the minority population is small. Hillary's support came from her strength not from Barack's weakness. If Hillary and Barack made a combined swing through this naturally Democratic state, McCain would not have a chance.

____________________

ronnie:

Halo,

Feel free to disagree with me all you want...I could be wrong but my 'assumption' is that McCain notices he's very much behind in this race and needs more time to prep...I think it's clear McCain isn't the best when it comes to debating anything.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Batony

Its actually +9% in PA - misprint. Panic like your guy!

____________________

Stillow:

@zotz

Certainly debatable...Reagan won two very very large landslides....and would have won again in 88 if he could run and his health would ahve permitted. Tough to compare presidents of different era's though....What baout Lincoln vs. FDR? Just cannot compare, had totally different challenges.

____________________

carl29:

Batony,

The "R" next to Strategic Vision stands for Republican. Take a look at this poll 4 years ago in PA:

Strategic Vision (R) | 9/27-9/29 801 LV 3.0 Bush 48 Kerry 45, Bush +3

Strategic Vision (R) | 9/13-9/15 801 LV 3.0 Bush 49 Kerry 44, Bush +5

See?

____________________

apologist42:

McCain and his handlers and the gangs of press that are following him disrupting Bernanke and Paulson and the rest is exactly what we need right now. Thanks for putting the country first, John.

____________________

nick-socal:

marctx, Split screen of what? Do you understand how the Senate works? Bills get written and negotiated in committees, then they are voted on to get out of that committee. Once they are out of that committee they are voted on by the full Senate. McCain wouldn't be doing any 'work' on the bill if he goes to Washington. He's not part of the committee.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

SurveyUSA. 9/24. Adults. MoE 3.2% (No trend lines)

The first debate between John McCain and Barack Obama is scheduled to take place in two days. Should the debate be held as scheduled? Should the debate be held, but the format changed to focus on the economy? Or, should the debate be postponed?

Hold as scheduled 50
Hold with focus on economy 36
Postpone 10


Is the right response to the turmoil on Wall Street to suspend the campaigns for president? To continue the campaigns as though there is no crisis? Or, to re-focus the campaigns with a unique emphasis on the turmoil on Wall Street?

Suspend 14
Continue 31
Refocus the campaign 48


If Friday's presidential debate does not take place, would that be good for America? Bad for America? Or would it make no difference?

Good for America 14
Bad for America 46
No difference 35

____________________

apologist42:

SUSA poll seems to suggest the American people disagree with McCain's decision.

Another case of McCain knowing what's right? He completed the Hail Mary when he called for the Surge, now he expects them all to connect? Sorry John, you're no Doug Flutie.

____________________

HaloFan:

McCain has shown once again that he is a true maverick.

The MSM have noclue what to do with him. The media is supposed to dictate and then predict what will be.

You show em McCain

____________________

GboroNC:

@Stillow

The same could be said for Clinton in 2000. On another note if it is tough to compare presidents of different eras then why are you comparing Obama to Carter. People under the age of 28 were born after the end of the Carter presidency and people under the age of 40 were 12 or younger when it ended and were likely politically unaware at that time.

____________________

Batony:

Sumd22:

I don’t know where you live, but I live in DC…nevermind don’t feel like explaining why WVa will not got to Obama. AND yes I have been to WVa.

This is why Obama supporters need to relax:

NBC News/Wall St. 48 46 Obama +2

LA Times/Bloomberg 49 45 Obama +4

So Carl,

So you like the ABC/WaPo poll, even though they were way in 2004, but don't like the Strategic Vision poll. Just hilarious.

____________________

Save US:

HaloFan:

If Maverick means can't handle more than one thing at once... McCain is a true maverick...

____________________

kerrchdavis:

So to recap all the key polls today:
National
ABC/Wapo: O+9
Rasmussen: O+2
R2K: O+4
Gallup: O+3
Diageo: O+5
Fox:O+6

Nevada
NewsWest: O+2

Michican
CNN: O+5
Some poll no one has heard of: M+3

Colorado
Insider: O+9
CNN: O+4
Rasmussen: O+3

Penn
CNN: O+9
SV: O+1

Florida
SV: M+3

Did I Miss Any?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@batony

you're trying to make a counter argument by showing us polls that have O up 2 and 4 points?

So I guess we're not fighting over whether Obama is winning...just over how much he is winning by

____________________

kerrchdavis:

If you average out all the national polls for today, Obama leads by 4.325 points or something like that.

____________________

Batony:

Kerrchdavis:

Be consistent, why would you put "a poll no one has ever heard of" beside the MI poll that shows McCain ahead, and not by the NV poll, that no one has ever heard of, that shows Obama ahead.

Of course Obama is ahead, and he should be. I'm just cautioning you that polls can change on a dime. I think that WaPo does nothing but hurt Obama b/c I know the lead is not that large.

____________________

Stillow:

@GboroNC

I had no choice...I have to back 32 years to find a liberal who was elected!!! And that liberal lasted one term. History is always valid for modern day comparison. But comparing actual presidents to eachother is difficult to do...but I gotta go back to 76 to see a liberal elected, he last one term. I feel the same would be true with BO...a one term liberal president.

____________________

boomshak:

@kerrchdavis:

"So to recap all the key polls today:"
National
ABC/Wapo: O+9
Rasmussen: O+2
R2K: O+4
Gallup: O+3
Diageo: O+5
Fox:O+6

um, you forgot a few:

Ipsos/McClatchey: O+1
Battlkeground: M+2
NBC: O+1

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@batony

I was trying to do a boomaid :D you caught me. sorry everyone!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

got boomaid?

Sorry, those werent on the site for some reason. Lets see, that brings Obamas average down to about 3.2 points nationally.

my bad.

____________________

boomshak:

Why the hell is everyone acting all of a sudden like Obama is some sort of FRIGGIN ECONOMIC EXPERT?

Obama has no experience with Economics at all. Oh John McCain is afraid to debate Obama on economics, oh, oh...

What the hell? Why should McCain be afraid of that?

____________________

Save US:

Obama is not an expert.. and he will still make McCain look bad..... My friends... the fundamentals of our economy are strong... :)

____________________

Batony:

My knee jerk reaction was this was a dumb move by McCain, now the more I think about it...it may prove out to be brilliant.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Got boomaid?

who said Obama is an expert? McCain just admits that he sucks at it. ANd he voted with (90% of the time) the person most Americans feel is directly responsible for the largest deficit in history.

____________________

Tarp Lazer:

Stillow - I'm getting tired of all of this Carter crap. You may have lived during that time but you appear to know very little about Carter. It wasn't a time of liberalism or solid one-party rule.

Rather Carter was very much a fiscal conservative. He believed that to confront the economic problems of the time he needed to move his party to the political center. He was a reluctant Keynesian and a financial conservative, and faced great opposition from many members of his own party in the passage of many economic programs. I'm sure you remember the great fights between Carter and his party almost immediately after he was elected on the passage of a stimulus package, and tax cuts. He also fought with the Democratic party in congress on the passage of energy legislation later on in his term. Carter implemented economic and social DEregulation, and trade restriction policies.

Refresh your memory.

Also, Carter inherited inflation and unemployment when he got to office, they weren't fundamentally his fault, although as I described above he didn't deal with them well. And he was the one who appointed Volcker to the Federal Reserve and he is given a lot of credit for finally curbing inflation under Reagan.

One of his best moves was to

____________________

ronnie:

I don't see how this suspension in the campaign will reverse momentum...It's another "Hail Mary" pass...To me, it marks a reluctant and indecisive person....We can't have that during serious times.

____________________

zotz:

Now the McCain campaign is suggesting that the debate should be rescheduled for next Thursday and the vice-presidential debate should be postponed.

So they don't want Palin to debate
Hmmmmmm...

____________________

boomshak:

MORE NEWS FROM NPR BATTLEGROUND POLL:

Democratic party advantage shrinks to just 2 points in battlegtound states! (Compare this to the 10 point bs from Gallup):

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94973392

"Since the polling team last surveyed likely voters in August, a lot has changed. The number of battleground states has shrunk — from 19 to 14 — as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and Montana returned to their Republican roots.

In August, Obama led in the 14 states by 3 points. Now McCain leads in those states by 2, and the underlying political landscape has shifted a bit as well.

In August, by a 7-point margin, more voters identified themselves as Democrats. Now, in the battleground states, the Democratic advantage in party identification has shrunk to 2 points."

____________________

MileHigh:

McCain is an expert on foreign affairs? I think he's ridiculous. You could probably get one of the kids from the 'Smarter than a 5th Grader' show. At least they know geography. McCain has referred to Czheckoslavakia several times (hasn't existed in years). He also talked about the Iraq/Afghanistan border which doesn't exist on any map that I can find. This foreign affairs genius/country first maverick then picks someone with zero experience to replace him if he kicks it. Brilliant!! That's great leadership, real change. I like the way the maverickette is surrounded by Bushy handlers. The way Palin/McCain dodge the media is also impressive and courageous. McCain is all about the surge. He doesn't want to discuss getting it wrong for five years. Town halls? Get real, that's not a debate. That's why Obama said no. McCain agreed to the debate, and now he's reneged. Does he have to be in DC? They have these newfangled contraptions called phones. Maybe he could use one of the Blackberries he invented. Let's see, the Senate, House, and Paulson are already working on it. But, there's no way they can get it done without the financial expertise of St. McCain. Remember, Gramm and his lovely wife brought about the lending crisis, speculation, etc. That's his guy! His gal ran HP into the ground; stock fell %40 on her watch. That performance earned her over $40 million when she was canned. We don't need WV, it won't happen anyway. McCain should be worried about FL. Trust me, he won't win CO. This is Obama country! I'm not giddy about the polls, but I'm pleased. This liberal won't celebrate until this is over, and nobody else should. We need to fight harder than ever and strike while the iron is hot. McCain is on the ropes; more prodding could produce an on-camera tantrum

____________________

Tom:

It looks like CO is on the threshold of turning sky blue. Another poll like this and it will be. WV looks curious. I understand that since 60% of WV media markets overlap other swing states (OH, PA, VA), that the Obama campaign is buying time in the other 40%. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Michelle or Joe dispatched to Charleston or Morgantown soon.

@ boomshak

Compared to McCain, who admitted the economy isn't his strong suit, Obama IS a genius. :-D

____________________

faithhopelove:

7 CO polls in a row from 6 different pollsters have shown Obama ahead in CO.

CO is one of 4 states in which Obama has just increased his ad spending. See:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/24/obama_ramps_up_ad_spending.html

Obama has raised more $ than McCain in 41 of 62 CO counties--meaning more CO voters are invested in Obama than in McCain. See:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26833397/

Obama's ground game in CO is stronger than McCain's--Obama has 31 field offices, McCain has just 9.

____________________

nomorerepubs:

The polls are looking great for Obama but there is another element to the election that we should all be aware of and that is making sure that all those who want to vote for Obama are allowed to vote for Obama and then that all those votes are counted. Many states are expecting record turnout and they are not ready!

These people are excited about Obama and any irregularities at the polls will disproportionately affect Obama. Here is a CNN article on the subject.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/24/election.warnings/?eref=rss_politics

Don't forget that the same slimy operatives who helped Bush cheat in 2000 and 2004 are still out there in the shadows

____________________

cinnamonape:

Montana is a resource rich state, particularly in precious metals. Right now those prices are going through the heavens with the collapse of the dollar. So the economic situation there might not be viewed as badly as places like Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylavania, Michigan, etc.

Then again Ron Paul has pushed both precious metal investment and an end to the Federal Reserve. So who knows how much that will change the campaign in the current circumstances. Maybe there are a lot of "V For Vendetta" fans up that way?

____________________

cinnamonape:

Halo Fan: "And to all you liberal trolls out there. The debate this Friday is on foreign affairs – why would McCain run away from that. It’s his strong point. Please be reasonable when you post your insanity."

It's not like the war in Iraq/Afghanistan is effecting the economy, or something? And how precisely would we finance additional conflicts in a "NATO-ally" like Georgia, or against Iran, or Syria? And if things keep up the way they are where will the revenue come from to actually support the WITHDRAWAL of US Forces from Iraq.

McCain says that we should support a very large force there for decades...as well as increase our committment in Afghanistan, put boots on the ground in Georgia, and prepare for war with Iraq and Syria...and maybe North Korea, too.

Guess that's not gonna be on the taxpayers ticket?

____________________

IndianaMD:

Observation of all the comments here are quite interesting...just like the candidates...no real talk of issues (probably because neither of the candidates have much to say that is different than other years)...early jumps on Mccain's move are clearly partisan on either side...only what occurs over the next 48 hrs or so (+/- the debate included) will show us if it was brilliant or an act of a desperate man....I have a feeling the move was probably a combination of both wanting to get a quick fix for the economy and a political move to get some attention...at any rate, the pollsters numbers are swinging in Obamas direction and may have also had something to do with it...
As an independant watching the political season, I certainly do not see Mccain as a man who is running from a debate, but is putting what he sees as a priority first, as he didn't want to cancel but postpone the debate...for obamas part, it does seem as though he was the first to reach out a hand to get a joint statement...but neither of these candidates seem to really understand the economy, and both are stammering
I'm really interested to see that so many people rally behind their parties candidate and really don't seem to have a good grasp of what either of them actually stand for besides the typical rhetoric of the RNC and DNC...

Also, putting so much into these polls either whether they swing in either direction is rather silly...there are too many unknowns in this years election (if you believe the media...and I do in this particular topic) such as new young voters,and racial bias...that I really believe we truly will only know the one question that matters the day after the election

All this partisan rhetoric does not help our country...

just my thoughts...feel free to tear them apart...

____________________

The Dude:

Obama pulling away in MI!

EPIC-MRA poll: Obama by 10

http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9066719

YEAH BABY!

____________________

MileHigh:

IndianaMD-

I really think McCain is ducking the debate. It's very obvious the people surrounding him had huge roles in creating this havoc. They represent everything McCain is speaking against. McCain wanted town hall meetings because they aren't debates. McCain has changed positions almost hourly with respect to many issues. Obama has been more consistent and calm. Paulson and McCain were saying the "fundamentals" of the economy are strong" just a few weeks back. Now, Paulson expects us to believe the sky will fall if we don't get this done in 2 days. They used the fundamentals line over 20 times before McCain said the American workers are the fundamentals. Yeah, right. Message to McCain: "Don't piss in my ear and tell me it's raining!" I think McCain is more concerned with the timing of the debate, and that has nothing to do with solving this crisis. He knows the American people will be more alert than usual. I also think that he wants to reschedule in hope the VP debate will be cancelled. C'mon, Doc. After choosing Palin do you think this guy cares anything about governing or the American people? That had to be most obvious McCain pander ever, and that's saying a lot. There's a 1 in 3 chance that if elected, McCain will die in office. Do you think naming Palin is country first? This man is a hypocrite, liar, and a terrible American. I'm a veteran, and John McCain is no friend to veterans.

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