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CNN/TIME: FL, IN, NC, OH, WI (9/14-16)

Topics: PHome

CNN / TIME / ORC
9/14-16/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Florida (907 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 48, Obama 48
Obama 48, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 1

Indiana (890 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 51, Obama 45
McCain 48, Obama 43, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 1

North Carolina (910 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 48, Obama 47
MCain 46, Obama 45, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 1

Ohio (913 RV, 3%)
Obama 49, McCain 47
(9/2: Obama 47, McCain 45)
Obama 46, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 0
(9/2: Obama 45, McCain 44, Nader 5, Barr 2, McKinney 1)

Wisconsin (950 RV, 3%)
Obama 50, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 0

 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

Bush won IN by +21 in 2004 and +16 in 2000
That might be the sixth poll showing that McCain holds a 4-5 points lead, that definitely means something ... it's not out of reach for Obama

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jamesia:

With all 5 candidates, Obama's lead in Florida is outside the margin of error.

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twb0392:

he would have 11 more EV if he would have picked Bayh...

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The Dude:

Heard a quote this morning from the IN Secretary of State projecting 750,000 new registrations this election cycle. Indeed looking up for OBAMA-BIDEN in the Hoosier state.

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sherman:

Well...what can I say? Awesome.

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Unbiased08:

The Inidiana and Wisconsin polls seem about right, but the NC, OH, and FL polls give Obama at least 6 more points than any other recent polls.

Conventional wisdom right now is that Obama is trailing in Ohio by 3-4 points and trailing in Florida by 5-6. He may be down double digits in NC according to recent polling. So I have to dismiss these polls as out of sync. I think they are instructive, however, that things are starting to go good for Obama again, because usually outliers lean in the direction of the candidate with the momentum.

Clearly, CNN doesn't even believe its own polling, because it still uses a "poll of polls" calculation to determine where the race is. That's probably always the best way to go, no matter what pollster you are.

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straight talk:

McCain is in trouble! His suprise pick is not swinging any voters away from Obama! I think that Palin is goin to ultimately cost him. Why didn't he take TOm Rige! And Buck the Republican party! He Gambled when he did not have to!

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Tyler:

@jamesia

The margin of error applies to all numbers individually, so the difference between the numbers has to be twice the "margin of error" to say definitively that the leading candidate is ahead. Although once you're past 1x the MoE, it's definitely an advantage.

The Ohio number is a bit eyebrow-raising, given the several polls recently that all show a McCain lead there, but the rest of the numbers are definitely believable and good news.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

What's the deal with NC? In the most recent five polls, the McCain-Obama spread has been 20, 4, 3, 17, and 1. Has any other state looked so unstable?

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marty:

Take a look at the dates on this poll. Very recent. That's important.

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djneedle83:

Obama campaign is spending 40 million in Florida. I think we need Chuck Todd to re-examine that map.

Can we say that North Carolina and Florida will be back in the toss-up category. Nobody has seen a Obama ground game on a general election night.

For Timmy Russert

Florida, Florida, Florida
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio
Colorado, Colorado, Colorado
Virgnia, Virgnia, Virgnia
North Carolina, North Carolina, North Carolina

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djneedle83:

Obama campaign is spending 40 million in Florida. I think we need Chuck Todd to re-examine that map.

Can we say that North Carolina and Florida will be back in the toss-up category. Nobody has seen a Obama ground game on a general election night.

For Timmy Russert

Florida, Florida, Florida
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio
Colorado, Colorado, Colorado
Virgnia, Virgnia, Virgnia
North Carolina, North Carolina, North Carolina

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djneedle83:

Obama campaign is spending 40 million in Florida. I think we need Chuck Todd to re-examine that map.

Can we say that North Carolina and Florida will be back in the toss-up category. Nobody has seen a Obama ground game on a general election night.

For Timmy Russert

Florida, Florida, Florida
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio
Colorado, Colorado, Colorado
Virgnia, Virgnia, Virgnia
North Carolina, North Carolina, North Carolina

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player:

I see that the Obamaphiles are jumping all over the Cnn/Time polls. I sure wouldn't put much stock into them. I watched CNN pundit Paul Begaula and a Time journalist rant and rave and try to demean Sarah Palin on This Week last Sunday. They were have hissy fits. Even the mild mannered George Will got mad at them. I wouldn't put very much credibility into these polls.

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bmcavan:

As far as NC - look at the polls that have Obama way behind. They are LV's. The polls that have it close are RV's. If Obama can get out the voters on election day he has a serious shot on many of these states.

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zotz:

This probably will start a debate between LV and RV polls. Rasmussen's filter needs a close examination. It would be easier to trust these polls if we could see the crosstabs.

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Tybo:

wow, a whole poll of outliers.

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thoughtful:

I am waiting for Florida to turn Yellow.

Its so sad that CNN don't give us crosstabs.

This Is News Entertainment folks.

We Get Rasmusen at 6 EST WI to compare and Oregon!

McCain's in very deep trouble. Palin definitely breaks the "do no harm" rule. Energized the base driven moderate repubs out and indies to Obama.

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H2OPlus:

"Palin is failin'" is the new battle cry in mainstream U.S.A.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

Player,

These polls are to be dismissed because of how George Will and Paul Begala interacted on a Sunday morning talk show? Is that because Paul Begala is a CNN "contributor"? Please explain...

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OGLiberal:

@player

Sarah who? We're back to talking about serious issues nows. The shiny, new object from Alaska has lost her luster. Sure, for the GOP base, she will remain their Messiah. (yes, the GOP now has their own) But the undecideds - the folks who are going to decide this election - are now focused on the top issue facing the voters in this country - the economy. And when the conversation switches back to the issues, it benefits Obama. McCain's own campaign has admitted as much.

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carl29:

I am not a big fan of CNN polls. The problem is that somehow their polls did not seem to get any of the convention bounces, which I really find pretty odd. It was totally against conventional wisdom.

I really don't think that Obama has Florida anywhere close to "bag;" however, common sense tells me that something must be happening because the McCain campaign recently started spending money in the state. Actually I think that the last week the Obama campaign spent $1.3M in the state and the McCain campaign spent $1M as well. I think that the McCain campaign so something in their internal polls that "warned" them about Obama's performance in the state.

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change:

i think obama has a great chance in florida=
blacks 6 hundred thousand that are registered didnt vote last election, young voter = major voter registration efforts+ plus hispanic voters! = and remember flordia would end it!

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OGLiberal:

@carl29

I also think that FL is one of the few swing states where the Palin pick not only didn't help, but may have hurt McCain a little bit. But yeah, if they're now spending there, something is making them worried. I still think the state will go to McCain but he may have to work for it now.

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kerrchdavis:

@player

I don't think Paul Begala is doing the polling. I don't have a source to back this up though.

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carl29:

Dear OGLiberal I share your opinion about Obama's uphill battle in Florida, my home state.

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s.b.:

When are pollsters going eliminate RV or Adult polls and put in a LV screen. We know not everyone votes. A simple do you think you will vote ranking of 0-10 and only accepting 8-10's would be good enough. I know everyone screams that LV models eliminate new voters, but honestly just asking them if they are going to vote can't be unfair.

I know Gallup had said they were going to switch to LV after the conventions but they haven't. What gives and when do they and others switch.

Also any polls that ask other questions before who are you going to vote for are biased. If this question isn't asked first and I don't believe it is in the CNN polls then the result is distorted. So both the lack of a screen and a slew of other questions before this one skew the result and they seem to skew towards Obama when compared to other polls, surprise surprise from CNN/Time.

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Xenobion:

Watch out for biased old TIME magazine lol...

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s.b.:

Also as far as 600,000 blacks not voting last time in Florida and why a voter screen may be appropriate. If I'm not mistaken, no one with a criminal record can vote in Florida. This is state by state and I am not clear which states this applies in, however many of those 600,000, certainly not most but many would be ineligible to vote. I do not believe in this, nor am I racist to bring it up. It's just a fact to be discussed when someone says there's all these people who don't vote in Florida. There may be a reason they don't vote.

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jamesia:

@ Tyler:

Oh, I agree with that. I was just mentioning that Obama being (1x) outside the margin of error, Florida is still very much a toss-up. Or maybe it's better to say that McCain's bounce in Florida is gone, and we're back to a tie. It seems like this poll and the last FOX/Ras poll confirm that.

Also, Pollster has columns for the third party candidate data, which they use for most polls that question for third party support. I wonder why it was chosen to use the polls from this release that show only Obama vs McCain, and not use the numbers with third party supporters?

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carl29:

@"If I'm not mistaken, no one with a criminal record can vote in Florida."

Dear s.b: You are right about ex-felons not having the right to vote; however, that changed:

4/5/2007

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Most felons released from prison will have their voting and other civil rights restored under a rule approved Thursday by Republican Gov. Charlie Crist and the state clemency board.

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Uri:

I don't get something. In FL, 4 McCain points go to Nader? Are these Hillary's PUMAs (which don't supposedly exist after unity) or what's the story here ?

I can't see a Nader voter picking McCain/Palin and vice versa.

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change:

@xenobion

CNN is ranked most trustworthy news network according to PEW research, and Fox news comes in last! so you tell me who is more trustworthy?

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illinoisindie:

@SB
While your point is valid regarding the eligibility of the 600K AA voters. I believe that figure came from the Obama camp. You would think that identifying 600K would mean 600K eligible voters. It would be dumb to i.d. 600K ineligible voters. I would assume that they identified a population of x unregistered voters of which 600K are eligible. Seriously only about half the population votes, is the 600k number that unbelievable

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thoughtful:

I am still waiting for Florida to turn yellow!

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change:

@illinoisindie

of course its not unbelievable, they are african americans, and they are rightfully excited about the democratic nominee= honestly i wont be surprised if over 80% of those folks vote! and just to be clear the democrats ALWAYS WIN THE AA VOTE BY LARGE MARGINS!

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carl29:

"Florida’s new governor has successfully petitioned to 'let most felons easily regain their voting rights after prison,' despite a ban added to the state constitution in 1868. Abby Goodnough reports for the NYT that 'Florida has as many as 950,000 disenfranchised ex-offenders — far more than any other state — the vast majority black. Other states have repealed or scaled back similar bans in recent years, but roughly five million felons remain barred from the polls nationwide.'"

"Voting-rights activists say that there are about 950,000 felons in Florida who have served their time but are currently ineligible to vote — making up roughly 9 percent of the state’s voting-age population, and more disenfranchised felons than in any other state. The ex-cons belong to traditionally Democratic demographics — many are African-American, and many are poor."

"By restoring ex-cons’ rights, in other words, Florida’s new Republican governor has added tens of thousands of Democratic voters to the rolls — possibly pushing a House seat or two into the blue column, certainly making life a little bit easier for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or whoever else wins next year’s Democratic presidential nomination."

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serpounce:

There will need to be another poll to turn Florida yellow, right now the trend line is going to treat this as an outlier.

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atreides:

Did I read that a poster thought that we should go to LV polls totally. And did another say that many of the 600K new registrants were jailbirds.
For days (weeks), I've been questioning the Rasmussen LV screen. Now I see a few others are starting to also. Some of you need to go to the Obama web site to see how well organized the ground game is. This is no joke. He will get out the vote. I was just in Florida a couple of weeks ago and people told me that the students were "hyped". Remember there were 20K AA's that were denied the vote in 2000. That absolutely won't happen again. You don't hear the Obamans talk about the ground game too much. I think they view it as their secret weapon. Fl is officially up for grabs.

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serpounce:

As a side note the Nader numbers are quite high (4%) considering that I haven't been hearing anything about him? Any ideas?

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jamesia:

serpounce:

You should review the Florida polls. Look from Quinnipiac's poll on 9/5 until this one. McCain's lead shrinks consistently with each poll until this one shows a tie.

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carl29:

"According to the latest state numbers, more than 252,000 of Florida's newly registered voters this year have enrolled as Democrats, compared to more than 98,000 identifying themselves as Republican."

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change:

@ carl29

your analysis smacks of racism,and you know it. you should be ashamed of yourself. what about all the rednecks that are orange country that will never vote republican? how come that is conveniently left out of your analysis?

your stupid racist scum!!!

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carl29:

I was answering to s.b:

"Also as far as 600,000 blacks not voting last time in Florida and why a voter screen may be appropriate. IF, I'M NOT MISTAKEN, NO ONE WITH A CRIMINAL RECORD CAN VOTE IN FLORIDA. This is state by state and I am not clear which states this applies in, however many of those 600,000, certainly not most but many would be ineligible to vote. I do not believe in this, nor am I racist to bring it up. IT'S JUST A FACT TO BE DISCUSSED when someone says there's all these people who don't vote in Florida. There may be a reason they don't vote."

I think that b.s. comment was reasonable enough and in no way offensive. The statistics show that there is some correlation between race and inprisonment. Everyone knows that I am a hispanic woman who supports Obama, so in no way anybody can accuse of being any sort of racist.

The comments I posted were "cut and paste" from news articles back in April 2007 when Charlie Crist, my Governor, was working on removing the ban, for which I am extremely thankful. He won me right then.

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Tybo:

""Florida’s new governor has successfully petitioned to 'let most felons easily regain their voting rights after prison,' despite a ban added to the state constitution in 1868. Abby Goodnough reports for the NYT that 'Florida has as many as 950,000 disenfranchised ex-offenders — far more than any other state — the vast majority black. Other states have repealed or scaled back similar bans in recent years, but roughly five million felons remain barred from the polls nationwide.'"


carl, try the whole facts

"You should be aware that applying for restoration of your civil rights opens you to investigation by the Florida Parole Commission. You may also have to undergo a hearing. The process is long, and there are no guarantees that your rights will be restored, but submitting the application is often recognized as a positive rehabilitative step that may help you achieve other goals. Submitting the application also helps to change the current rights restoration process for the better.
"

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carl29:

*Please "change" moderate your appalling vocabulary. Jesus Christ!!!

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Clint Cooper:

The North Carolina polls have been ALL OVER THE PLACE. What is up with North Carolina? I say McCain takes it, but maybe by single digits. Who knows?

The fact that Indiana keeps polling tightly means that Obama is not going to give it up easily. The amount of Obama events in that state is just stunning.

The Florida poll is a bit questionable, but the Ohio poll is inline with at least one other reputable pollster: Quinnipiac.

The Wisconsin numbers look exactly right. Wisconsin has been a total nailbiter the last few elections. I think Obama takes it by about 3-5 points this time around.

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carl29:

Dear Tybo: I am not familiar with this particular law; however I am posting the entire news article from Associated Press:

Updated 4/5/2007 12:32 PM

Most felons released from prison will have their voting and other civil rights restored under a rule approved Thursday by Republican Gov. Charlie Crist and the state clemency board.

ALL but the most violent felons WOULD AVOID the need to get on a long list for a hearing before the board, which sometimes takes years.


The board voted 3-1 with Attorney General Bill McCollum, another Republican, strongly objecting.

Crist has made it clear since before he was governor that he was in favor of making it easier for felons who have done their time to vote. He pushed the measure forcefully, and rejected McCollum's assertion that it was welcoming the worst of the worst back into society too easily.

Attorney General Bill McCollum
After someone has served their time, Crist said they should get their rights back as a matter of justice.

Still, Crist's plan was a compromise, carving out murderers and other violent felons who would still have to either go before the board for a hearing or at least be subject to review.

Florida is one of three states — the others are Kentucky and Virginia — that still deprive felons of civil rights for life. Most other states automatically restore felons' rights when they complete their sentences, probation or parole.

*This is the entire news article.

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GboroNC:

Why do the polls for my state make absolutly no sense?

Something about a 19 pt spread just seems fishy.

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player:

No guys thats not it. It seems as if Zogby can go out and get the type of poll results that favors whomever is paying the freight. The current attitudes at CNN and Time are toxic to McCain/Palin. Who is the polling company? It isn't one of the regulars is it? Where are the cross tabs? As far as Paul Begala is concerned, he sings for whichever democrat that pays him. Hes a political hack.( After all of that daily praising that he did for HRC on Crossfire, she still didn't pick him to manage her campaign.) However I was very surprised at the anger displayed by the Time journalist.

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Tybo:

carl, you can find the full law, and the application on line.

for those non violent offenders who have finsihed parole and paid their restitution in full, restoration is automatic.
It's estimated that's between 85 and 150 thousand people, though no one knows how many actually live in florida anymore ( since they are completely out of the system.

for those who must apply, the process takes longer than 6 months and some times ,it's estimated , it could take 2 years.

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Clint Cooper:

Hate to break this to the McCain supporters, but this NC poll is not an "outlier."

There have been seven polls in the past week in NC.

Two have shown a large lead for McCain (15-18 points)

One has shown a medium lead for McCain (11 points)

But four have shown a McCain lead of 4 points or less INCLUDING an in-state North Carolina Republican polling outfit which showed him leading by only 3 points - and this was AFTER the Republican convention.

An outlier is a poll that is stand-alone in being UNLIKE the other polls. This does not in any way satisfy the definition of an outlier.

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carl29:

I totally agree that VIOLENT FELONS will be out of the picture. That process seem to be never-ending.

I think that NON-VIOLENT FELONS, those whose civil rights are automatically restored, are the ones that will most probable be interested in voting. I think that the majority of felons end up in jail for drug-related crimes, but this is just my speculation.

Now, I think that we have some sort of "disagreement" on the information:

According to the Florida Parole Commission's website:


5 . Is there a filing fee for the application process?

NO, there is NO FEE INVOLVED. This is a service provided FREE OF CHARGE by the State of Florida.

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change:

@ clint cooper

yes thats right keep lying to yourself, yes. all NC polls except for ones taken during palin-mania and the convention bounce have NC within a few points favoring Mcsame. how about maybe the polls taken during the convention maybe outliers? but ya keep giving yourself false comfort!

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zotz:

Great article by Elizabeth Drew, pro-McCain writer recants her support

"When Bush, issued a “signing statement” in 2006 on McCain’s hard-fought legislation placing prohibitions on torture, saying he would interpret the measure as he chose, McCain barely uttered a peep. And then, in 2006, in one of his most disheartening acts, McCain supported a “compromise” with the administration on trials of Guantanamo detainees, yielding too much of what the administration wanted, and accepted provisions he had originally opposed on principle. Among other things, the bill sharply limited the rights of detainees in military trials, stripped habeas corpus rights from a broad swath of people “suspected” of cooperating with terrorists, and loosened restrictions on the administration’s use of torture. (The Supreme Court later ruled portions of this measure unconstitutional.)"
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13541.html

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s.b.:

Wow thisis a very interesting conversation on the rights of ex-felons to vote in Florida. 980,000 is huge more than i had thought. And yes sad to say most are African American men. I am glad that their civil rights have been resotred. It seemed a bit Draconian. That could make a difference in Florida, as I know even people with similar names were told they couldn't vote last time. I still think McCain is ahead but that could be making a big difference in LV screens although a couple of years may not have been enough time for these people to all get registered and be willing to participate in the political system. Interesting.

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change:

The obama strategy BRILLIANT

If mcsame has to worry about North carolina in the 7 weeks that is a bad nightmare. put him on defense this late in the game - pure brilliance!

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Tom:

These polls seem about right, although maybe favoring Obama by a point or two. We have to remember that the polls were for the most part conducted after the Monday stock market meltdown. On election day, we have to watch turnout in college towns and inner cities. If turnout is high there, then Obama will have a very good night.

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Save US:

Freaking Nader needs to get the f... out of this race...

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carl29:


It seems that something is making McCain pay attention to North Carolina.


Last week in North Carolina:
McCain spent $245,000; Obama spent $300,000.

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GboroNC:

I agree this is not an outlier for NC in regards to other polls, but the strange thing is why do the polls vary so much? Personally as much as it being this close would be awesome (I like the idea of living in a battleground state) I do not think it is. It is the same with the McCain +20 poll. If it were this close Obama would have to be running up the numbers in Winston, Charlotte, Asheville, Fayetteville, Greensboro and Raleigh and 80%+ vanquishing McCain in Chapel Hill-Durham, while boosting turnout in the NE part of the state. A 20 point lead for McCain would mean the opposite with McCain destroying Obama on the Coastal plain and in Appalachia. In 2000, 2004 its been about 12-13pts for Republicans. I cannot say I see a real reversal of that in either direction maybe Obama can get it down, but it will be difficult. However, with the recent demographic changes I cannot see McCain really toping Bush’s 2000 watermark.

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carl29:

@GboroNC: I share your skepticism about Obama's chances of carrying North Carolina. Nonetheless, Why is McCain spending that money in North Carolina? Don't you think that McCain's ad buy by itself is a sign of something? Why is it that is making McCain "willing" to spend as VIRTUALLY as much money as Obama?

Last week in North Carolina:
McCain spent $245,000; Obama spent $300,000.

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shells:

CBS poll just came out, Obama up by 5, when u add Nader/Barr, he's up by 6. Dems were polled 7% more than Repubs. This is great news!

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shells:

CBS poll just came out, Obama up by 5, when u add Nader/Barr, he's up by 6. Dems were polled 7% more than Repubs. This is great news!

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Here's the link to the CBS poll

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Sep08b-Elec.pdf

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faithhopelove:

This NC poll is a little fresher than the ARG NC poll (showing McCain up 11), and it also has a larger sample.

Nader is a write-in candidate in NC, while southerner Barr's name will be on the ballot--a combination that should help Obama.

Obama's internal numbers show the race close enough in NC that he sent Biden there on Sunday. Michelle Obama campaigns there tomorrow.

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ndirish11:

Florida bothers me. How is Nader taking away McCain voters, shouldn't it be the other way around lol? This poll is not consistant with the others of Florida recently I would absolutely not think about turning it back yellow.

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faithhopelove:

Obama is up 2 in OH in this poll; in the ARG poll of OH released earlier today, McCain was up 6. CNN's poll is new; it reflects the economic news of the last couple days. The ARG poll was in the field from 9/10 to 9/13. It picked up the tail-end of McCain's bounce, and also included polling on 9/11 (a strong day for McCain).

The CNN poll also has a larger sample.

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Connor:

Hi player! Hi Tybo!

QUESTION: If/when Obama is inaugurated in 2009, will I see you two on TV in the background, hands clasped together, holding up gigantic signs that read "OUTLIER!!!!"

Hahaha, oh you right-wing doofuses , my dear little right-wing doofuses...

Anyways, yes, cool: looking good. But you know, we're still 50 days out (less than 50!). I'm not convinced that Obama holds a 4 pt lead in Florida (don't third party candidates always poll high around this point?), but it's clear that he has a good-to-very-good shot there.

But let's remember that Time/CNN polls aren't exactly the gold standard. But hey: these battleground results combined with today's tracking polls show a pretty clear trend back to Obama. So yeah, I definitely wouldn't dismiss them.

If Obama sustains this lead and has success with the debates...yup.

You guys see the Elizabeth Drew Politico piece today? Drew, author of 'Citizen McCain,' renounces her previous support of John McCain. It's kind of sad to read, really: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13541.html

QUESTION: If McCain's "base" was the "Republican intelligentsia media" and said members of the media are now all openly turning against him, who does he have left?

Oh, and said Republican intelligentsia are all lambasting Palin.

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Connor:

Hi player! Hi Tybo!

QUESTION: If/when Obama is inaugurated in 2009, will I see you two on TV in the background, hands clasped together, wearing your adorable little scarves and mittens, holding up gigantic signs that read "OUTLIER!!!!"

Hahaha, oh you right-wing doofuses , my dear little right-wing doofuses...

Anyways, yes, cool: looking good. But you know, we're still 50 days out (less than 50!). I'm not convinced that Obama holds a 4 pt lead in Florida (don't third party candidates always poll high around this point?), but it's clear that he has a good-to-very-good shot there.

But let's remember that Time/CNN polls aren't exactly the gold standard. But hey: these battleground results combined with today's tracking polls show a pretty clear trend back to Obama. So yeah, I definitely wouldn't dismiss them.

If Obama sustains this lead and has success with the debates...yup.

You guys see the Elizabeth Drew Politico piece today? Drew, author of 'Citizen McCain,' renounces her previous support of John McCain. It's kind of sad to read, really: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13541.html

QUESTION: If McCain's "base" was the "Republican intelligentsia media" and said members of the media are now all openly turning against him, who does he have left?

Oh, and said Republican intelligentsia are all lambasting Palin.

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faithhopelove:

This poll explains why Obama is spending Friday and Saturday in FL. Bill Clinton will campaign for Obama there about a week later.

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ndirish11:

Hahaha West Virginia turns yellowe thats real funny. WVirginians are the most racist people on the planet.

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Connor:

@ndirish11

Sign of the (awful economic) times, I suppose. They dun start thinkin wit ther wallots.

At some point, and that point is probably right on the cusp of a recession and/or pseudo-depression, "will I be able to feed my family" probably outweighs "black fella with a SCARY name."

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Tybo:

carl...on the florida felon law
"for those non violent offenders who have finsihed parole and paid their restitution in full, "

doesnt mean their is a fee to file, it means If the have to pay the victim or court charges( and usually in florida that's almost aways) are awarded, the felon must have paid that in full before they can vote.
Court keep a record of restitution/fees/ect forever in florida...

Is that what you meant by fee?

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Hoosier:

I live in Indiana and this has been an odd year. Normally, we see no action in the fall and then the networks light us up red five minutes after the polls close.

This year, the Obama people have really organized the state. They've even gone into the reddest counties to scour for votes. The McCain camp, on the other hand, has yet to be seen. The closeness of the polls is also surprising considering the other marquee race, the Governor's contest, is shaping up to be a blow-out. Mitch Daniels will probably crush Jill Long-Shot Thompson by two to one.

I still say that McCain carries Indiana, but anything less than a ten-point margin will be embarasing based on past GOP nominees.

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zen:

RE: NC Poll
From my point of view, the oddity of various result of NC polls are due to sampling.


In case of the state like NC which has lots of AA population and urban area, you have to really include cell phone users.

In primary all polls are predicting very poorly for Obama.

rasmussen obama +9
survey usa obama +5
research 2000 obama +7
Mason - dixon obama +7

And the result was Obama +14

And strangely in case of the Appalachian states like WV, KY, the poll was quite accruate because they don't have so many cell phone only users.

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zen:

RE: NC Poll
From my point of view, the oddity of various result of NC polls are due to sampling.


In case of the state like NC which has lots of AA population and urban area, you have to really include cell phone users.

In primary all polls are predicting very poorly for Obama.

rasmussen obama +9
survey usa obama +5
research 2000 obama +7
Mason - dixon obama +7

And the election result was Obama +14

On the other hand, in case of the Appalachian states like WV, KY, the poll was quite accruate because they don't have so many cell phone only users.

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Snowspinner:

zen - There is no evidence that, norming for race, age, gender, income, and other factors, cell phone only ownership is itself a demographic factor. Thus if you weight by population you can, by all appearancs, eliminate the cell phone problem.

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