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CNN/TIME: FL, MN, MO, NV, VA (9/28-30)

Topics: PHome

CNN / TIME / ORC
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Florida 9/28-30, 770 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 1

Minnesota 9/28-30, 849 LV, 3.5%
Obama 54, McCain 43
Obama 53, McCain 41, Nader 2, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Missouri 9/28-30, 744 LV, 3.5%
Obama 49, McCain 48
Obama 47, McCain 46, Nader 2, Barr 2

Nevada 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Virginia 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 53, McCain 44
Obama 52, McCain 42, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 0

 

Comments
jamesia:

Wow, Obama's leads are confirmed

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Flashlight:

I'll be Boomshak:

Just this morning Obama was up 8 in Florida - now he's down to +4? Can anyone say "free fall?"

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Viperlord:

Wow, looking good. I'd be a bit skeptical about VA, but it just confirms the trends.

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m913:

Ouchie for McCain! Confirmation of the Q polls.

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Unbiased08:

It's time for McCain to go home.

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thoughtful:

The problem with CNN are that they are a News Entertainment operation.

No Crosstabs so how you hang too much on these?

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IndependentThinker:

LOL!!
Reality check:
boomSPIN/boomDESPERATE
This is the same CNN/Time pollster that gave McCain +4 in VA one month ago --- see below
So basically when it shows a McCain lead it's not biased however when it shows the opposite it's biased
You're so insane

CNN/Time 09/07 - 09/09 920 RV 46 50 McCain +4

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jamesia:

Yeah, that VA poll is the most surprising one here. Although Obama's support from Republican and Democratic leaders in VA is very large... so it's possible his lead is this large.

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RussTC3:

Wow, Obama improves very nicely when 3rd parties are included.

Still plenty of time left in this election. Hopefully the Obama campaign keeps going strong, and I have every bit of confidence that they will.

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Unbiased08:

@Thoughtful

The national TIME poll has Obama +7 when the consensus is that he is ahead by 4-5. So if you want to dock Obama a few points on each of these polls to bring it in line with the mean, you can do that. It still = Obama ahead in 3 states that are must wins for McCain (FL, NV, and VA).

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political_junki:

Yes, Yes, Yessssssssssssss!
Poooh, I have to lit a cigarette!

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thoughtful:

I should have added you can't hang too much on these but they are with an established pollster, in partnership with Time and happen to be very much in line with some other recent polls.

McCain's internal 7% is in precincts in the pan handle!

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couseydee:

Yay Minnesota!

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NYClassicalLiberal:

I wonder how boom is going to spin this. But regardless of boom and any of the garbage he spews, these polls most be absolutely shocking to the McC people. 538.com had Obama at 330 EVs and these polls are slowly confirming the hopes of the Obama campaign and the fears of the McC campaign. VA does seem rather large, but a lead is there in VA nonetheless...McC should be scared.

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IndependentThinker:

If I were u boomSPIN I would start seeking another job cause it's getting very likely that you would be laid off the day after Nov 4th
LMAO!!

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MNLatteLiberal:

Finally! A MN poll!!!
Would love to see the breakdown though.

@Flashlight
OK, I'll be myself then :) -
but it is an 8 point lead still, when you factor in Barr et al.

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falcon79:

watch MN go blue on the map :-)

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RussTC3:

I'm assuming that Minnesota will move to lean Obama after this result. Then again, we really haven't had too many polls out of the state. I wonder why.

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psell2flat03:

I am stunned. Minnesota now completely off the table for McCain. Florida very much in play for Obama. VA has been trending O for a while. But the big shocker is Missou. There is absolutely NO way McCain can get to 270 without Missouri. This has to be painful.

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thoughtful:

@Unbiased08

I am just sore that CNN don't give us the internals.

I have no doubt that these polls are accurate.

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mrut:

It's interesting that Nader isn't hurting Obama; in fact, sometimes he seems to be hurting McCain. With or without third-party candidates, Obama is thumping McCain.

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Atomique:

Obama is well on his way to a 375 EV landslide!

HI * WA * OR * CA * NV * NM * CO * MO * IA * MN * WI * IL * IN * MI * OH * FL * NC * VA * DC * MD * DE * PA * NJ * NY * CT * RI * MA * VT * NH * ME

Yes we can! ¡Sí se puede!

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change:

Mccain is toast! Cnn/time poll always sets the trend, if you don't believe me check this out:

they had North Carolina last time with Mcsame up 1, now every poll has the race tied\

they had ohio tied while others had mcsame up, and now almost all polls have ohio tied.

they had obama up in michigan while others had it very close, and now michigan has blown wide open

their last national poll 51-47 for obama now almost all polls have obama up by this margin

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kerrchdavis:

lol! yeah boom, I'm REALLY panicking.

what a joke!

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RussTC3:

New poll from the AP:
http://apnews.myway.com//article/20081001/D93HTL500.html

National (9/5-10)
Obama 48 (44)
McCain 41 (48)

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Louis:

This is a bit stonger for Obama than other polls so we need to see confirmation especially since 538 shows CNN a a a bit worse than average in accuracy. none the less encouraging for Obama
Even a small lead in Missouri is a bit suprisiing.

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DecaturMark:
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jamesia:

There's another poll over on RCP from Insider Advantage showing Obama +3 in FL. That's an unabashed partisan (R) pollster too. Obama is officially leading in Florida, whatever that lead might be.

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JCK:

I think you can subtract a couple points from these polls; CNN appears to have a slight Dem lean.

After doing my "Dem lean" subtraction:

FL, MO, and NV are tight, with FL and NV slightly favoring Obama, MO probably slightly favoring McCain. Clear leads for Obama in VA and MN.

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couseydee:

I don't think Minnesota was ever on the table for McCain. It's been close, but McCain has not lead in ANY poll here ever. These are good numbers for Obama for MN considering Obama hasn't spent a penny in advertising in the Twin Cities media market.

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IndependentThinker:

The FL one shows that 4% of McCain voters vote for him not because they like him or agree with his policies but instead because they don't want to vote for Obama therefore when third parties are added into the equation they vote for them instead of voting for McCain
See below:
Florida 9/28-30, 770 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 1

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RussTC3:

The above AP results may seem unclear. The date in the () is the date of the last poll. I'm not sure what date this poll was conducted.

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mrut:

Seeing these polls, where do you think McCain will campaign after today in Iowa? Maybe spend a few days stumping in California, then on to Massachusetts!

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MNLatteLiberal:

@cousydee: told ya so! :)))
(though out here in the land of Bachmann (spit), we see so many McCain/Panic yard signs.) Thank goodness, the rest of the state is normal.

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thoughtful:

The States polling has simply caught up and now reflect the National polling.

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JFactor:

Excellent news for Obama. Even if these results would be slighly biased towards Obama McCain would be still in deep trouble. Virginia is really turning blue...
__________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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Commander_King:

See ya later McStunt!

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Trosen:

I'm very skeptical that Nader in the mix takes points ALL away from McCain in FL? And in MN too? huh? Very weird. But yea, if these #s even close to hold up, things are looking grim for camp McCain. It would seem only a monumental turn of events.. not little blips here and there, can turn this thing around.

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Dana Adini:

Boomshak

is there anybody out there??

waiting for some comic spin

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PortlandRocks:

I still think Mccain should try to swing Illinois.

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DecaturMark:

Just a voice of caution here: The state poll numbers lag about a week behind the nationals. That being said, if Obama has anything close to these poll numbers next week, then McCain is going to have very few avenues left to 270.

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freedomreigns:

The trend is more important than the numbers in this case.

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Hoosier:

I'm shocked. While I agree that we need to see more polls to establish a trend, it looks like Obama is moving out ahead in Florida, Nevada and Virginia.

i was never worried about Minnesota. For the GOP, MN is the ultimate "tease": every fall (even in 2006) it looks competetive then builds good margins for the Ds as Election Day approaches.

Missouri is the real surprise for me. It had looked somewhat same for McThuselah, now it looks like it could go either way. I hope we see more polls out of MO.

If these polling trends continue, I think we can start talking about the "McLame free-fall".

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PortlandRocks:

Guys don't get too excited. The Palin debate tomorrow will swing this race WILDLY to McCain! ROFL HAHAHAHAAH!

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falcon79:

lol @ portland rocks
yeah mcsame should spend some moolah in chicago :P

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Dana Adini:

Hey Portland,

Let's not underestimate Palin. Very low expectations for her. Biden has to take knee three times and it will be over. Hope he doesn't do anything stupid

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Timdicator:

I'm a pinko commie liberal, too and I'm rooting just as hard as anyone for Obama ... but we really have to take these with a huge grain of salt.

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mrut:

@PortlandRocks

You're right! By campaigning in states where he is hopelessly behind, John McCain is showing us what a maverick can do. Only a maverick would take the battle to his opponent right where he lives--in Illinois. Sure it's risky, but what if it pays off? This is just the kind of erratic, irrational, throw-caution-to-the-wind, head-up-your-rearend behavior that calms unstable markets and reassures skittish allies.

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Guailo:

My guess is we won't hear from Boom again...

At some point, no matter how stubborn or delirious you are, you must accept defeat.

election-projction.net has it at a 93.2% prob that Obama will win. Intrade has Obama winning 338 EVs...

Waiting for the fat lady, waiting for the fat lady...

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zotz:

I think the Boomer is breaking into his dad's liquer cabinet.

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DecaturMark:

I guess MN will be going light blue because Pollster has Obama with 260. Yet, I have not seen acolor change on the board.

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1magine:

boomy woomy says: these polls are all fail. fail fail fail boo hoo hoo hoo hoo.....

On the other hand, we need to start being Dems. We are better than the right wing partisan nut jobs who can only attack or gloat. Let's make an effort to reach out to our fellow citizens. Most of them, no matter how misguided, most of them, want what is best for the country, even if we disagree with what that is.

as for that racist americafirst -you can lick my hairy white....

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bclintonk:

First poll we've seen in MN in 10 days confirms what I said earlier: Obama people on the ground are reporting strong movement toward Obama, paralleling trends in more frequently polled Dem-leaning states like MI and PA. McCain is in deep doo-doo. He can't defend all the formerly red states he needs to have any chance, and he's not making any headway in marginally blue states he thought were vulnerable like MN, MI, and PA.

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miatch:

Boom, this would be an excellent time to go over to intrade, and make a fortune! Seriously McCain is at 35. Go cash in on your Right/Center understanding of the electorate.

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ericsp28:

Missouri just went yellow.
Minnesota should go blue at any time now.

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jamesia:

Expectations are so low for Palin. Even the slightest bit of comprehension on her part will look good. Probably won't help her "win", but she'll probably come out looking better than we thought. Unless of course she tanks, which is a real possibility. Then McCain is toast for real.

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nick-socal:

I think the most shocking thing here is the MO #s. Wow.

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couseydee:

@MN Latte
Wow Latte, you're in Bachmannville? At least you have the freedom to choose (lightbulbs) up there!

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mrut:

PortlandRocks

Rest assured, Palin will win Thursday's debate. The bar is so low for her, she cannot fail to impress. Biden just has to hold on, make the case for Obama, and do no harm. Conservatives will be thrilled with Palin's performance--guaranteed!--and her negatives will come down.

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carl29:

Good for Obama, although no poll by itself is the total and complete truth. More polls will come out to confirm or deny this trend in those states.

Guys, stop picking on "Boom," I mean poor guy. I know that he is pretty annoying at times, a little over the top a supporter. Just let him be.

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Guailo:

@ jamesia

I agree. In fact I think she will "win." That is, perform way above expectations without answering a single question directly...

But, as in the past, this will not be enough to give momentum back to McSame...

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couseydee:

@ Carl29
You're right Carl, it's not like Boom has ever been a total jerk on this site. Give the guy a break.

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PortlandRocks:

Once again, Rasmussen was on Hannity's show on Fox the other night. Hannity asked SO WHEN's the bounce end? Rasmussen said THIS IS NOT A BOUNCE, It's a TREND. Own up BOOM!

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djneedle83:

A couple weeks ago the Obama supporters where freaking out and feeling the Palin bounce. I told everyone to relax and just let the campaign work itself out over the post Palin convention.

See...everyone.. Obama has nothing to worry about. The election is done. Obama supporters like myself need to vote, volunteer, and let everyone know that Obama represnets the future leadership of America.

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thoughtful:

Ithought it might be worth looking at Florida polling THIS WEEK on it's own:


RCP Average 09/27 - 09/30 -- 48.6 45.6 Obama +3.0
CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 770 LV 51 47 Obama +4
InAdv/PollPosition 09/30 - 09/30 532 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Suffolk/WSVN 09/27 - 09/30 600 LV 46 42 Obama +4
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 836 LV 51 43 Obama +8
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 47 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 599 LV 47 48 McCain +1
PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 941 LV 49 46 Obama +3

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Ryan in MO:

About time MO started to reflect what people living here actually see.

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jamesia:

And if anyone asks her what newspaper she reads, she should just make something up for Christs' sake. I'm asked easy questions like that on job interviews all the time, just to see how I think on my feet. I'd never get any job if I used a Palin response.

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apologist42:

Looks like the "I'd never vote for Obama in a million years" folks are spreading their votes among the 3rd party guys instead of voting for McCain. Nader's revenge? Fine with me.

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Dave:

ohhh that felt so gooood....

i opened the page and before even looking at the numbers, i just savored how obama was on the first column all the way down... mmmm. then to just sip those sweet numbers....

finally... the nation is coming to its senses!

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kerrchdavis:

Boom wont be here. He's prob still in the gallup poll forum trying to convince everyone this will be tied by Sunday.

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JCK:

MN must be "light blue"; the number at the the top shows 78 EVs leaning Obama of 260, but the map only has 68 EV showing as light blue states.

The difference must be the 10 EV from MN.

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falcon79:


@carl29
but but... half the fun is in teasing boom and gang ;)
hehehe

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Ryan in MO:

boom? boom? hello? where are you? i guess you have to come up with your spin. we're waiting.

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The Guardian:

Caution everyone. The Bradley effect is still in play. Ask anyone in Michigan about the Affirmative Action Proposal here last year. The trends look good, but Obama has to close the deal. No gaffs by Binden tomorrow, Sarah Palin can do well all by herself. He needs to keep the pressure on through the finish line. As all coaches will tell you, Finish, Finish, Finish

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JCK:

I have emailed pollster.com regarding our friend "george usa."

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Ryan in MO:

you tell 'em George, you're having a major effect on the intellect level of this conversation.

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NYClassicalLiberal:

I just called boom and asked him for some evidence that this is a bounce and not a trend. His response? "I'll have to get baackk to yaaaa".

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change:

lol mcsame camp is so pathetic now they are now going after pollsters like quinipiac

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PortlandRocks:

This TREND is amazing. As I've said all along. Every day that goes by is HUGE percentage wise. Every day, President Obama becomes MUCH closer to reality.

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BOOMFAIL:

McCain = Embarrassment!

FAIL!

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RaleighNC:

Nice try, CNN.

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Ryan in MO:

looks like obama's closing in on MS and TX also

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couseydee:

This isn't going to stop me from door knocking in Minneapolis on Saturday. Obama hasn't won until the votes are counted. It's getting to the end, Obama supporters need to keep fighting like we're losing.

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Connor:

@boomshat!

Boomshat! Please come over here and shat all over these polls!

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thoughtful:

The McCain camp said their internals were +7 in Florida.

+6% a month ago was the best I could find for McCain from any pollster - I think it was Ras!

The panic has well and truly set in, if they are beating up on Quinn what they atre going t beat up on these guys as well?

If Rasmussen has it at -6% with a host of other pollsters then what these & the Quinn polls are showing is highly feasible.


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mrut:

@couseydee

Absolutely right. I'll be canvassing in NH for the 6th Saturday in a row this Saturday. Obama is moving up because he has developed and sharpened his economic appeal hugely in the past three or four weeks. He and his supporters need to keep making the case for economic recovery and not let up.

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GretchenA:

@ Ryan in MO

You said you're near Branson? I am from Cape G. and am going to spend two weeks there canvassing for Obama.

@ fellow Dems and liberals

It isn't time to celebrate yet.

Remember when it looked like Howard Dean was a lock to be the Dem candidate in 2004? Remember "Dewey defeats Truman"?

Again, we don't know how much race will impact who people vote for and though time is running out on McPain anything can still happen between now and Nov. 4.

I am very heartened by the MO numbers, though. Being from there, and from a very conservative district, I am glad to see numbers pushing MO back in the toss-up list. If McCain has to defend MO he is in deep doo-doo indeed.

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I was dumb struck when I saw this posting. Hopefully this is just the states catching up to the national and not an outside run. Still, it will take a few more like this to get some more blue on the chart. Would really like to see Obama up over 270 in the next couple of days.

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Ryan in MO:

@GrethenA

actually in Branson, and there are Obama signs all over. nothing for McCain. That's why I've been skeptical with virtually all the MO polls. I mean, Branson is the Christian Vegas.

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boomshak:

OMFG

CNN and Time together? If there has ever been a black hole of swirling liberal bias, that's it.

Sorry, but I simply cannot take anything by these hyper-partisans seriously.

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thoughtful:

"Diageo/Hotline: Obama Surges in Battleground States
An early look at today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama now holds a double-digit lead in key battleground states.

Among registered voters surveyed in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada, Obama tops McCain 50 to 40%. Just a week ago, Obama led 45% to 42%.

Nationwide, Obama leads 47% to 41%.

The Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading 51% to 41%, while Rasmussen has Obama up 51% to 45%."

Well you look at it with these polls the Quinn polls and the other states polls being released Suffolk Florida +4 Obama and this is shaping into a convincing win providing the Obama campaign keeps up the pressure and hard work!

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Ryan in MO:

There's more enthusiasm in this part of the state for Kenny Hulshoff than there is for John McCain.

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couseydee:

@ Gretchan-
True true. But I do think race will not be an issue at the polls. Would any racism not already be present in the polls? Also, I believe as many will vote for Barack because he IS black. I think in the end, they will cancel each other out at best.

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Inkan1969:

@boomshak

Do you expect anyone to take a hyper-partisan like you seriously then?

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Tyler:

I wish the MN poll came with a senate poll so we could see if Franken is being helped by Obama's coattails there... but I guess we take what we can get.

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couseydee:

I really don't think Franken has a chance here in Minnesota. The only way he can win is if Barkley takes enough votes away from Coleman.

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Scott W:

QUESTION: PLEASE LIST THE MCCAIN "SAFE" STATES:

1. UTAH
2. ALASKA
3. ARIZONA (leans McCain)
4. ANYMORE???

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Objection:

The media keep going on about how Obama "won" the first debate. People who didn't see the debate heard these headlines and that's what's caused this bizarre shift in the polls, compounded by the fact that they were all done by CNN. Once Obama's boost from the first debate wears off, expect McCain to surge ahead once again.

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Boom youre back I love you. Can we marry once BO is elected? Lol just joking. So are u still expecting a tie by Sunday? Or something within the MOE?

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Scott W:

IS BOOM = OBJECTION???

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boomshak:

LOL, CNN IS HAVING AN ORGASM OVER THEIR BS MANUFACTURED NUMBERS:

http://www.cnn.com/

Front-page news baby! I love it. Create your own bullsh*it numbers based upon bullsh*t samples, then report on them like you are amazed by your own numbers (as if they came from a credible source).

Incredible.

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tjampel:

@boomshak

If you're right about CNN/Time/Pew/Ras/PPP/etc.etc.etc. ....then looks like we've all been "boomshacked"; we need a new term to replace "rickrolled" so I propose this one.

Definition: Intentional manipulation of the truth to perpetuate or create a meme (or memes) which comport with the ideology of the actor(s).


Usage of "boomshacked":

Those liberal pollsters and pundits have boomshacked us in an effort to create the narrative that McCain is fading at the moment. Their purpose, of course, is to kill any remaining enthusiasm of diehards (and blow-hards) like.....you guessed it; our resident celebrity logic-free contrarian, the esteemed.....Boomshak!

My response to these obscene misrepresentations of public opinion:

"We, the American people are the victim of a massive conspiracy by the entire Polling establishment. Even uber-biased (regarding demographics) Battleground is now getting in on the action; witness it's -4 for McCain in 1 day (as it stopped its absurd weighting games). They're all in the tank, while the truth...the last beacon of hope and light, is confined to Sen. John McCain's internal polling apparatus. I demand that Pollster stop posting this blatant propaganda and post ONLY McCain's internals, as stated by McCain's campaign. We need intervention now!"

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kerrchdavis:

roflmao!

So boomshacks theory is that every SINGLE POLL RAS/PEW/R2K/CNN/TIME/NBC/WAPO/HOT/QUI/PPP IN THE UNIVERSE is wrong.

BWWAHAHHAHAHSAHBADBNBNFQFNBFIPNF!! lol!

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kerrchdavis:

@boomshack

Hey boom, I can't wait till you're in here on Nov 4th claiming that the election results are WRONG, BIASED, HAVE BAD WEIGHTINGS, WRONG INTERNALS and within the MOE!

roflmao! what a joke!

CNN/NBC/ABC is going to report that Obama has won the election and he's going to be telling us they're wrong and biased.

LOL!PATHETIC! FAIL!

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kerrchdavis:

rofl! "manufactured"??????

The press which, IF ANYTHING, wants to keep this election close so that it increases ratings, is MANUFACTURING pro-Obama results?

What a joke!

fail!

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Jacob S:

If Obama is even or ahead in MO, this election will shape up to be an all out sweep. I think that it is time to color MN light blue. MN is the only state that voted for Gore which is still considered a toss-up on the map. Being from MN, I do not think that anyone seriously considers MN to be a first-tier battleground and this poll confirms that sentiment.

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cinnamonape:

boomSPIN/boomDESPERATE

"Virginia 9/28-30, 684 LV, 4%
Obama 53, McCain 44

This is the same CNN/Time pollster that gave McCain +4 in VA one month ago!

Do you guys really think it's possible to swing 11% in less than a month! The fix is in!

I blame statistics! Weren't they invented by the French?"

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mysticlaker:

Where is the boomdoggle?

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carl29:

Don't get me wrong guys...my previous comment about not picking on "boom" has more to do with us not betting the dead horse more than "boom" not deserving it. I know that he can be quite annoying at times, most of the times indeed. However, when someone is already making a fool of his or herself, we don't have to do the work; the person is already doing it, which in my opinion is boom's case.

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cinnamonape:

Here's the problem Palin faces.

She was inserted to be the stealth candidate for the socially conservative evangelicals. If she starts espousing those positions it will increase the turnout amongst that base. That would make it a "family values" debate. But if she attempts to moderate those positions she may lose the social conservatives. They may wonder about her commitment a la Harriet Miers.

If she does moderate her beliefs (or if they are far more moderate than she has previously espoused- or that her affiliations indicate) then she may appeal to the "middle" but suppress turnout by her hard-core supporters.

Everyone thinks this debate will be a slam dunk for Palin because of the lowered expectations. But perhaps we are not considering the real choices that have to be made at this point.

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RalphW:

I live in the Twin Cities and watch a small amount of commercial broadcast TV & no cable (10 o'clock news, a bit of Leno, two or three 9 pm dramas per week - so maybe 6 hrs/wk).

I had been wondering about Obama's strategy to not do TV ads here. McCain has been hammering whenever I tune in, and RNC has been in on some buys. Nothing from Obama or DNC.

Looks like they've played it right.

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joydivision8:

Good thing the election is over a month away. Do these polls really mean much at this point? If I was the McCain camp, I am fine with "bottoming out" at this point, and building momentum up to November 4th. Obama has peaked way too early.

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Stuart:

Obama supporters should act as if Boom is right.

Anything can happen, and if we kick back we lose, and believe me, WE CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE.

Volunteer.
Donate.

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carl29:

@joydivision:

There are entire states voting already, either by early voting or absentee ballots. Ohio is one of the states voting already, Is Ohio important? You bet :-)

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Eternal:

@ Joydivision,

That may sound good if you were say a ski jumper but the fact is that Oct 1 polls are normally (I say Normally) a good predictor of who will end up winning the race. Nothing is for sure but I would much rather be up 4-6 perhaps having "peaked to early" than down the same margin after being up 3 weeks ago.

By your logic, how do we know McCain didn't peak too early?

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keytype123:

As you can see you Dem's are all talking amongst yourselves.We Rep's are a bit dispirited so go ahead and chat-if things pick up we may be back but it doesn't look likely.It has been fun but when the economy tanks and your party is in govt there is nothing that can be done.
Cheers

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Lechuguilla:

Some historical information of significance here ...

Going as far back as 1964, only two states have accurately predicted the Presidential winner 100 percent of the time. In the last 44 years, those two states have never been wrong. Those two states are:

Ohio and Missouri.

Although Missouri has been trending Republican in last decade, its status as a bellweather state remains intact.

Ergo, if Obama wins the election, he almost certainly will carry Missouri.

Lech

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couseydee:

@ Jacob S.
You're right, Minnesota has the LONGEST streak of voting for Democrats. Longer than Rhode Island and Massachusetts! (Thanks Mondale). I don't know why we're still a toss-up.
I don't agree with the MO/OH idea though. Obama could lose OH,MO,NH and FL and still win hands down. The dems now have CO and NM, along with all kerry states plus IA.
We wouldn't even need the red states we will probably win: VA,NC. All the Dems need is all Kerry states plus NM, CO, and IA and Obama is pres.

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Kbvegas:

I CAN'T EMPHASIZE ENOUGH THAT WE OBAMA SUPPORTERS MUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO GET TOO "GIDDY". AS BARACK SAYS, A BLACK GUY NAMED "BARACK OBAMA" IS ALWAYS AN UNDERDOG (I THINK THAT WAS THE QUOTE). I'M NOT POPPING THE CHAMPAGNE UNTIL NOV 4TH (MAYBE NOV 5TH).

The way this is going, it looks like Florida, Ohio, NC, VA, CO, and just about every swing state seems to be trending Obama. I can't think of one swing state that isn't looking winnable for him right now. Frankly, it's almost too good to be true. There are still 2 debates and a VP debate coming ... and we all know that the Republicans will not simply throw in the towel. It's going to be a very nasty 35 days!! Brace yourselves

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Clint Cooper:

I think it's funny how everyone on this site totally sidesteps the issue of black voters in Virginia and elsewhere. Those who believe that blacks will only make up 20% of the electorate in VA and NC are in for a rather rude awakening on election day.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"I think it's funny how everyone on this site totally sidesteps the issue of black voters in Virginia and elsewhere. Those who believe that blacks will only make up 20% of the electorate in VA and NC are in for a rather rude awakening on election day."

I've seen some pollsters saying black vote will be DOWN in North Carolina and Virginia this year.

DOWN!

That's insanity.

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VonnegutIce9:

No complacency! Get out there and knock on doors, make calls, donate, do everything you can! The Republicans have a lot of money and no ethics, be prepared for some distasteful blow-back from McCain...also, a string of publicity stunts will most certainly ensue...

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Dan:

For all you celebraters, remember it is only October 2! The election is still 5 weeks away. A month ago, the momentum was swinging McCain's way, not the pendulum is back on Obama's side. I believe the bounce is entirely due to the financial crisis (maybe a small amount due to the debates), which the people blame on the republicans (namely Bush). The people are looking for a safe haven, and his initials are BO. The polls show the country's pulse today, what will it be tomorrow?

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terrapinwill:

There's no way Obama is going to win Missou.....not a chance. But the others listed here are all quite possible.

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