Pollster.com

New Hampshire 10/3-6, 813 LV, 3.5%
Obama 53, McCain 45
Obama 51, McCain 43, Barr 3, Nader 1

Are we assuming the difference between the two is due to rounding or is there evidence that Barr is taking in otherwise-Obama votes? That seems improbable but not impossible. Anyone have other examples of this happening?

Well, the numbers are all post-VP debate, so we can assume they're pretty solid at this point.

In NH? Barr definitely be taking Obama voters. It's the libertarian affiliation more than the actual candidate running I think.

The best is how Barr would actually switch NC to Obama according to these polls

NC now a top tier battleground, yes? Would be quite something to see the election swing on North Carolina

@IMind,

In NH, the numbers for both candidates went down 2 points. Nader is the one that would be taking votes from Obama. The pollsters are probably rounding Nader's 1 percent down.

Whatever the case, it's awash. With or without Barr and Nader, the margin of difference between Obama and McCain is the same.

Here, in most states, the poll for 4 ways are more favorable for Obama.... and that's good. The election will be held in that way...

Indiana can be really in play.

OH AND NH GO BLUE!!!!!
PAINT IT BLUE BABY PAINT IT ALL BLUE!!!!!!
WOOOOHOOOOOOOOO :D

Can anyone provide a link showing where Barr is on the ballot? These polls paint him as a major McCain spoiler in battlegrounds. Much more than Nader is to Obama.

Barr is going to be listed on the ballot on about 46 State ballots. Oklahoma, West Virginia and Louisiana are states where he isn't where he could have received some votes but isn't on the ballot. But he is on the ballot in almost all the battleground states.

Here's a list of Independent candidates and where they've qualified for ballot access.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_candidates_in_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008

I'm wondering how many people will shift to third party candidates if it begins to look as if the election outcome is inevitable. There is already a fear that the economic climate could discourage Republican turnout and if it looks increasingly like McCain-Palin aren't going to win, Republicans may go to Barr or even others to issue protest votes to tell the party to get its act together.

Conversely there could be the risk of "overconfidence" on the other side, and those voters on the extreme left may cast votes for Nader or McKinney to protest against Obamas more moderate stances (i.e. phased withdrawal from Iraq, increase in troops in Afghanistan, his vote for telcomm immunity and the financial bail-out bills)

This'll paint Ohio and New Hampshire blue... Hopefully Obama can put McCain away tonight

I have read that Ohio is a very difficult state to really get a good reading on. The problem is that alot of republicans that are upset about the past 4 years are saying they are now "independents" and this is messing with alot of pollsters.

If this is true, then the polls are relying too heavily on republican votes and therefore weighting it more to JM. So it is possible that alot of the MSM polls showing Ohio to be close may be incorrect and the BO has actually opened up a much larger lead than thought...maybe the Columbus Dispatch and ABC News actually got this one right! Remember, polling is not strictly a science as judgement is required...

Sorry boom bust or whatever your name really is...

Obama gains 17 pts in Wrn NC after visiting Asheville...leads 54-37 in the region. Not a scientific poll...but still

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/power-of-showing-up.html

NC now a top tier battleground, yes? Would be quite something to see the election swing on North Carolina

Actually not too surprising. The Democratic primary came down to NC and IN, and I've thought since then that NC could be the "closer" for the general, too. Obama's ground game in this state has been pitch perfect, and the political landscape of the state itself offers an almost step-by-step guide to moving a state from the red column to blue.

I think Obama will win Virginia and North Carolina. If Obama wins either state, he will be the next President of the United States.

I think "the Palin effect" will help Obama get a landslide victory because Obama is now tied or ahead among male voters in states like Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. Palin is not helping McCain among female voters. Female voters know that the Democrats, and not the Republicans, represent their views on the important issues.

McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy, and NO plan to end this war in Iraq. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!