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CNN/Time: MI, MO, NH, VA (9/7-9)

Topics: PHome

CNN / TIME / ORC
9/7-9/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Michigan (966 RV, 3%)
Obama 49, McCain 45
Obama 45, McCain 42, Nader 6, Barr 2, McKinney 1

Missouri (940 RV, 3%)
McCain 50, Obama 45
McCain 48, Obama 44, Nader 3, Barr 2, McKinney 0

New Hampshire (899 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 51, McCain 45
Obama 48, McCain 43, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 0

Virginia (920 RV, 3%)
McCain 50, Obama 46
McCain 49, Obama 43, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 0

 

Comments
Hope Reborn:

I'm shocked that Missouri is this close. Honestly that's been a state that seemed really out of reach. If it's this close, as close as VA is, then Obama has yet another path to victory.

By CNN's count, this would give Obama 264 EV's, with 4 states left in Toss Up: NV, CO, FL, OH

McCain would need all four; Obama would only need one. Tough odds.

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Mike_in_CA:

the only result that should be worrying to Obama is Virginia. Everything else looks good.

Cue the snarky comments from the McPain trolls. Something about how Obama is DOOOOMED because he didn't pick Hillary Clinton! That's it! McCain is up 2 points in the height of his bounce and it's OVER for Obama. Yet, when Obama was up 5 this summer the comments were "WHY ISN'T HE WINNING BY NINE MILLION PERCENT!? WTF!?"

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NW Patrick:

Colorado Colorado Colorado. A young electorate, large hispanic population. Spin the national polls all you want, McCain's in trouble. Obama will win the presidency by a hair with 273 electoral votes. Maybe more. McCain has the uphill climb.

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NW Patrick:

Why can't the Senator Maverick of 26 years pull away from the newby? LOL

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drinkwine247:

Mccain says about HILARY CLINTON'S HEALTH CARE PLAN, "YOU CAN PUT LIPSTICK ON A PIG, BUT IT IS STILL A PIG!"
WTF is wrong with all the double talker rethuglicans?

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Tybo:

that closes the door on virginia for obama, opens the door for michigan for McCain.

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drinkwine247:

John McCain - speaking in 1998 "Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly, Because Janet Reno is her Father!" That is so not even close to being sexist or anything.......RIGHT????

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NW Patrick:

Opens door down by 4? You are on crack to think the electorate in MI will swing McCain. LOL It's like MN and WI.. all this talk about making them close. WONT Happen. McCain wins CO or he's done. Simple as that. PS - Last MI polls showed Obama +1. Last time I check now +4 is not a net gain for McCain. LOL

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Inkan1969:

Tybo:

Obama down by four in Virginia - he can't win

McCain down by four in Michigan - he CAN win?

What's with the double standard?

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NW Patrick:

I'm sure the large African American population of MI will swing to McCain LOL

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thoughtful:

My friend Tybo

You are getting delusional! we have what 7/8 weeks to go!

NH goes blue!

Michigan is safe.

Its down to FL, Oh, Co, or NV.

My friend Stillow will tell you that Obama has a great chance in Nevada no matter how much she doesn't like it.

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Snowspinner:

Inkan1969 - See, because McCain has never been leading in Michigan, it makes it more likely for him!

I have no idea why people still obsess over Michigan. None.

Currently, I'd like to see Nevada numbers. Those are the most interesting numbers that haven't been put out in a while.

In any case, if these polls while McCain's bounce is at its strongest aren't giving McCain the election, he has a tough road ahead.

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NW Patrick:

Nevada. Large hispanic population. Blue collar. Young electorate. No Romney. Trouble for McCain. Maybe FINALLY we won't put our national interests and future of the GOOD PEOPLE OF OHIO. THANK GOD.

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brambster:

Yep, there are two virtual must-win states this cycle.

Whoever takes both Michigan and Colorado wins.

These states represent the best chances for each candidate of sealing the election up. It's not Ohio this year.

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Cicero:

The last 3 sets of numbers from Missouri and Virginia are pretty damn consistent, especially on the McCain side - no more than 1% variation. MO is out of reach for Obama and VA looks to be heading that way.

Does anyone know where to find a schedule for when new polling results will be released?

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Tybo:

thoughtful, when something comes out you don't like, you go "it's a republican poll"

when you like the results, you belive it's not biased.

that's delusional.

Virginia is staying red. Michigan is a worry for Obama.
NH ... obama called them racist, so I think he's in for surprize.

I never talk about NV.. til the polls come up

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NW Patrick:

Last Nevada poll was +5 Obama I believe. McCain so called BOUNCE was massive indeed in states like OKLAHOMA. LOL So the base got excited. It's not working in states that see the light.

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Jacob S:

Yet more evidence that confirms my hypothesis that McCain may win or be very close in the popular vote, but will (probably) lose the electoral vote. As I originally suspected, the blue/purple states are in Obama's column. The MI numbers should be very encouraging for Obama. McCain has pretty much run out of options in the blue/purple states. He will have to win all of the red states, which is a tough, but not impossible task.

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NW Patrick:

Last 2 NV polls:

CNN/Time 08/24 - 08/26 625 RV 44 49 Obama +5
Reno Gazette-Journal 08/18 - 08/20 600 LV 43 44 Obama +1

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Tybo:

Inkan1969:
"Obama down by four in Virginia - he can't win

McCain down by four in Michigan - he CAN win?
...

virginia has stayed a positive for mccain, same or improved lead.

Michigan has moved from obama towards McCain..

...you need to follow the polls , not just read one!

it's called analysis, rather than hope

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

I share Hope's surprise about MO although I'm less sanguine about Obama's chances of winning it. I concur about Colorado.

As for "that closes the door on virginia for obama, opens the door for michigan for McCain," I pose the following:

What's the difference between bull**** and moose ****?

Lipstick.

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NW Patrick:

And then we will hear Rethuglicans cry NO MORE ELECTORAL COLLEGE!:)

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vmval1:

I'd like to see am Indiana poll. I don't think it should be written off as a guaranteed Republican win.

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Connor:

Obama winning EV but losing PV? That would be...odd.

What will the democratic response be? "Hey, don't be such SORE/LOSERMEN"?

And to the McCain trolls above: Who knows with VA? No one. I guarantee you that both the McCain camp and the Obama camp have no idea how that state's going to play out.

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NW Patrick:

Im telling 'yall. Obama will hold ALL Kerry states adding NH, NM, and IA, then he needs just Colorado and it's done. Let's see what the debates bring when a 6 ft + articulate man debates a 73 year old 5'7 grandpa. Could be interesting.

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maddiekat:

McCain is going to crap his pants when 2 weeks from now he is further behind then then he was when he started this Palin fiasco.

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Hope Reborn:

Rasmussen is set to drop a poll showing McCain moving to 49%-47% in New Mexico, a very small lead. That's a big move though from his prior, roughly down 4% a month ago.

Alaska and North Dakota are now both way out of reach, same poll.

I really think New Mexico is an absolute KEY state, and I'm surprised to see that it's slid further than Colorado did. We'll see how it swings back.

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NW Patrick:

Bounce... bounce... NM won't be in play. Again, large hispanic population. How do pollsters reach them? Statistically, monorities hold land lines in less #'s.

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thoughtful:

Tybo

I don't like CNN polls I mistrust them as no crosstabs, ID , Model nothing so they copuld be anything.

Even though Rasmussen is a Republican he gives you enough information to say yeah this is a legit poll and you can condition Ras polls as you like. OK there is mystique on the tracker but OK.

538 ratings have got it about right

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change:

colorado ohio florida- obama only needs one and mccain cannot afford to lose one. But i dont think obama can handle the dirty GOP tactics he's gonna loose his cool soon, and its gonna cost him. I know the lipstick remark was not meant in an insulting way, but with 55 days left till the election= it was a stupid risk!

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NW Patrick:

Bush and McCain hold very different perspectives amongst the Hispanic community in NM. Don't assume because Bush barely won he will this time. The community is angry with Republicans. NM is NOT in play folks.

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Mike_in_CA:

Tybo, you really are smoking something. Virginia has oscillated between Obama and McCain all year. McCain has never been head in Michigan. It's ok to admit your bias, but when interpreting polls and attempting to engage in reasonable discussion, your hyperbole and ad nauseum shilling become irritating.

As for some of the comments about Nevada -- I live in SoCal. There has been an ARMY of volunteers heading from SoCal (safe Obama) to Nevada for quite some time now. I just can't really see how the state goes to McCain. The polls show it close, but Dem registration is up to astronomical numbers. You've got a lot of motivated Dems in Cal who wnat to help out. Nevada and NM are our "target states" and Nevada is closer... You do the math.

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thoughtful:

Hope Reborn

These polls aren't out yet are they?

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Inkan1969:

Tybo:

There were Virginia polls before the conventions that showed Virginia tied or with small Obama leads. Virginia has not be consistently pro-McCain the way North Carolina has. North Carolina may not be enough in reach for Obama, but Virginia still looks very doable. All the analysis you've seen to have done is spinning poll results.

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NW Patrick:

Thank God the West can knock some sense into this country. Your boss screws up for 8 years, and you had the choice, you'd re-hire him?

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Tybo:

Patrick said

"Im telling 'yall. Obama will hold ALL Kerry states adding NH,"

why both to talk politics with posters who have no grasp on the facts

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ambolt:

NW Patrick - Kerry won NH.

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RaleighNC:

The only real surprise is the Obama lead in New Hampshire. I would've thought It would be a smidgen closer, but still with an Obama lead. The other polls are in line with expectations unless you are a partisan hack.

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maddiekat:

Hope Reborn

Your sources suck...Obama is still up the same amount in NM

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vmval1:

@maddiekat:
are the poll results out?

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cmbat:

Best line I've heard all day:

"Why can't the Senator Maverick of 26 years pull away from the newby? LOL"

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change:

lol hope reborn is a jackass!


guys its gonna come down to colorado, ohio, florida,virginia- mccain cannot afford to loose one of these states!

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Reality Check:

MI is to Mccain as MO is to Obama--close at times but in reality no shot for the underdog.

There have now been 16 polls for Michigan since Obama clinched over Clinton and he has been AHEAD all 16 of them...I mean seriously it's a joke that MI is still officially a tossup here when Mccain has NEVER been ahead or even tied in a single post primary poll.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

I agree, CNN is liberal and keeps losing viewers, but their polls actually favor McCain. Ouch.

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vmval1:

@NeverMet...

how do you figure their polls favour McCain??

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joeflier747:

obama wins this election easily. way too many AA, latino and young voters this time around. it is as simple as that. mccain only ahead by 1 or 2% after his "huge bounce". game over, obama wins.

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eddie59:

I live in Virginia and am a little surprised to see such a bounce for McCain here. It's been essentially tied here for a while (at least it seems that way).

For what it's worth, it is interesting to note that my wife received an Obama mailing last Friday (the day after the end of the GOP convention) criticizing McCain's stand on abortion. The same day I heard several similarly themed ads on the radio from Obama. My guess is that they were trying to reach the Clinton supporters right after the GOP convention.

Those kinds of things (especially the mailers) take too much time to get into place to be a reaction to the Palin announcement/speech, but with the entire Palin mania, the ads and mailers actually felt a little bit like they were a reaction to Palin.

I think this state might still be up for grabs. I've heard from several people that Obama has a lot of resources on the ground here and McCain has very few. But a McCain/Palin rally in Fairfax today was moved to a larger venue to handle the demand for tickets. I would not have expected a reaction to McCain like that in Fairfax county a month ago.

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change:

joeflier47: these numbers are bad! really bad, you can just right them off! i cant believe he's loosing ground in new mexico- even MI and PA is not safe - i think mccain is gonna be president

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Connor:

Reality Check,

Excellent analogy. You could probably substitute Wisconsin for Michigan and be okay too.

Once again, republicans, WI's same-day-voter-registration law means victory to the ground game. And Obama's got the best ground game.

"NeverMetAnHonestLib,"

Can you, you know, troll in a more thought-provoking way? Like, say, "With Obama's narrow deficit and McCain's slight, but dogmatic lead, it's clear that the electorate has an anti-terrorist/communist/wimp/homosexual/hippy/radical/abortionist lean." I mean, come on, if you want to be Colbert, at least try and go full-ball.

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Tybo:

"WI's same-day-voter-registration law means victory to the ground game. "

how did that work for obama is New Hampshire?

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Connor:

He narrowly lost to Clinton. That's how it went, Tybo.

Dem. up against Rep.'s a bit different, don't you think? Or no...you don't think?

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Tybo:

"He narrowly lost to Clinton. That's how it went, Tybo."
he was projected to win by 6-9 and he lost by 3.

that's huge.

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zotz:

Mike-
Too many chicken littles here!

Attention Wannabe Dems:
Only vertebrates welcome here. Go grow a backbone and then come back.

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illinoisindie:

woohoo...cant wait to canvass next weekend in WI

this is encouraging

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whillice:

Man there are lots of trolls and arguing here. Hrm.....

I was just noticing an interesting trend: when the other people running are included in the poll, Obama is almost always hurt more by Nader (or Nader and McKinney) than McCain is by Barr.

Cue the next analysis that says that "Nader voters will make Obama lose MO and VA" (they do provide nearly the margin of victory) and maybe look for outreach by Obama's people to disaffected millennials planning on voting for Nader as a protest vote.

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Hope Reborn:

@ maddiekat:

HA HA

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Hope Reborn:

@ change: 5:04pm

I'm a jackass? You're a jackass... it looks like my info was right and yours wasn't... HA HA

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faithhopelove:

These polls appear reliable--non-partisan, large samples, inclusion of third-party candidates, and live telephone interviews (meaning they may have contacted some cell phone only voters).

A 3-point lead in MI during McCain's bounce is probably the best Obama could hope for. Nader hurts him there--but does anyone really believe that Nader will win 6% of the MI vote? He only won 1% in MI in 2004.

The most surprising number is MO, where McCain leads, but by only 4 points. Many of this poll's interviews were conducted before Biden's two stops in the state yesterday. Obama has room for growth in this state, as he is currently tied with McCain among women there.

Here is yet another VA poll showing a close race there, with McCain's lead within the margin of error. Obama gets 77% of the non-white vote, a number that will most likely be higher on election day. Most of this poll's interviews were conducted before Obama's visits of the last two days.

Obama's 5-point lead in NH indicates that this state may no longer be McCain's best blue-to-red bet. Biden is campaigning there today; Obama campaigns there Friday and Saturday.

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slinky:

In Michigan, Ohio, NH, Virginia, it seems like Obama is giving Mc a run for his money. It ain't over till its over.

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slinky:

There is a very damaging email circulating that alleges that Obama is nothing like we know him to be, and that virtually everything we know about him is false.

I am reasonably certain that this is part of the world's ugliest smear campaign ever imagined.

If I could figure out some place to post it, I would, but I feel certain you will hear about this in the coming days.

If this smear can be linked to the McCain campaign, I believe it will all be over for McCain.

It's pretty ugly.


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Tom:

At this point four years ago, IA, ME, MN, NM, PA, and WI were yellow, and now they are various shades of blue. CO and VA were both solid red, now they are yellow. Very few polls show McCain in front in CO, even after his convention bounce. FL has been trending towards Obama, too. McCain had a head start in MI, and now it is just barely yellow. Four years ago, MI was yellow.

McCain has no room for error. He must win CO, FL, OH and VA. If McCain loses any of these, its over.

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slinky:

I believe my Republican friends know and believe this analysis and are trying the dirtiest trick you can ever imagine.

(Well, except for Watergate: That was blatantly unlawful, and I don't think they're that stupid -- or at least they've learned from their mistakes).

It is all in process. I just sent it to the top of the Obama campaign.

It is very odd to be playing any role in National politics, but I didn't ask to get this smeary email.

It must have been written by either the McCain campaign, or a sympathizer (like the Kerry swift-boaters).

You'll hear about it. I'm confident.

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slinky:

OK, I found someone who posted it. It was posted 5 days ago, but predated to May. Maybe its old. Maybe its wrong. Maybe its been contested or not. I don't know. It's definitely ugly. And, if it continues to circulate, it will definitely have an effect on the campaigns that is not salutary:

http://www.thecitizen.com/~citizen0/node/31447

http://www.thecitizen.com/~citizen0/node/31449

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bonncaruso:

Interesting numbers.

Some quick averages, just for these first 10 days in September:

OK: Margin - McCain +33.0 (one poll only)
AK: Margin Average - McCain +24.7 (now safe GOP)
MT: Margin - McCain +11.0 (one poll only)
NC: Margin Average - McCain +9.0++
ND: Margin Average - McCain +5.5
MO: Margin - McCain +5.0 (one poll only)
VA: Margin Average - McCain +2.7*
FL: Margin Average - McCain +2.5
FL: Margin Average - McCain +2.5
IN: Margin - McCain +2.0 (one poll only)
NM: Margin - McCain +2.0 (one poll only)

CO: Margin Average - Obama +0.5
PA: Margin Average - Obama +2.0
MI: Margin Average - Obama +2.7*
WA: Margin - Obama +4.0 (one poll only)
NH: Margin - Obama +5.0 (one poll only)
NJ: Margin - Obama +6.0 (one poll only)
MN: Margin - Obama +12.0 (one poll only)
MD: Margin - Obama +14.0 (one poll only)
IA: Average - Obama +15.0 (one poll only)


*the polling for MI and VA currently reflect exact mirror images of each other.
++The SUSA NC poll looks more and more like a wild outlier.
Until more polling comes in, then McCain flips NM, for now.

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AuburnNavy:

McCain will carry the South (including FL & VA) in lock-step which means the Dems must carry 70% of the remainder of the electorate. When you take into account the culturally conservative West (i.e. OK, AZ, KS, NE...) that really only leaves the Mid-West to fight for and maybe CO and NM.

This race has the potential to break open widely for McCain because of his solid-South advantages and because he (and Palin it appears) is palatable to the "middle" like MI and PA. Right now Obama is on defense and if he has to defend blue states, that will not be a good sign. So far it appears McCain is taking red states (VA, FL, MO) off the table and making this a fight for CO, NM, PA, MI, WI & NH. That is a whole bunch of blue electors being fought for than is red.

Also, remember, in the past 100 years, if the GOP carries MO and OH...they win. They are bellwethers. When are the Dems going to look at history and realize the formula for success. Pick a Southerner who is palatable to the South in order to pick off a few Southern states. That makes it a whole lot easier for the Dems to win...otherwise, the fight is on blue territory. A black liberal from the North is going to be un tenable is a lot of this country. Pick a winner next time...Clinton, Carter, Johnson...huh, all Southerners! Obama will lose in 2008 and the Dems will wonder why in God's name they continue to beat their heads against a wall and lose...why, because they ignore 40% of the country and write them off as ignorant or unsophisticated which makes them never vote Democrat. It is happening again. In 2012, the DNC might want to think Phil Bredesen (Gov. TN), Mark Warner (Gov. VA), Mike Easley (Gov. NC). Follow the path of least resistance ... welcome the South and put it in play if you want to win!

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