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CO: 48% Romanoff, 45% Bennet (Denver Post 7/27-29)

Topics: Colorado , poll

SurveyUSA for Denver Post / 9News
7/27-29/10; 536 likely Democratic primary voters, 4.3% margin of error
588 likely Republican primary voters, 4.1% margin of error
1,015 registered voters, 3.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

Colorado

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
43% Maes, 39% McInnis

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
50% Buck, 41% Norton (chart)

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
48% Romanoff, 45% Bennet (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
50% Hickenlooper (D), 41% Maes (R)
48% Hickenlooper (D), 43% McInnis (R) (chart)
46% Hickenlooper (D), 24% Maes (R), 24% Tancredo (AC)
44% Hickenlooper (D), 26% Tancredo (AC), 25% McInnis (R)

2010 Senate: General Election
44% Buck (R), 44% Romanoff (D) (chart)
43% Buck (R), 43% Bennet (D) (chart)
45% Norton (R), 40% Romanoff (D) (chart)
46% Bennet (D), 43% Norton (R) (chart)

Which of the following Republicans would be the strongest Republican candidate for Governor? (n=732 registered Republicans)
33% Buck, 26% Norton, 13% Penry, 9% Benson, 6% Hillman

 

Comments
tjampel:

Ahh....that explains the previous poll; it's 100% defensive on the part of the Bennett campaign

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tjampel:

If this poll is correct Romanoff should win pretty easily since his supporters are more energized grassroots types than Bennett's.

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CompCon:

If Romanoff wins, this will be the second senate nominee that we know of that Obama tried to bribe to drop out of the primary but won the primary instead.

I love it when corruption fails.

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Dave:

Liberals think Ken Buck is an extremist. Thus, Ken Buck is my preferred candidate here.

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Field Marshal:

Buck and Norton are virtually identical in issues. But Norton is perceived to be more moderate. That is probably why she matches up so well against Romanoff who is also perceived to be an extremist but by conservatives but not Bennet.

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AlanSnipes:

Good news for Romanoff.
He can win the primary and general election.

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Bukama:

Buck is much less well known than Norton, but would do just as well as Norton if he wins the primary. Eitehr can beat Bennet. and I think either would decimate Romanoz, who is significantly more liberal than Bennet (as well as being fairly unknown outside political junkies).

Buck is possibly going to beat Norton in the primary, imho, because Norton went way negative in her primary campaign ads. A lot of Republicans, myself included, think she put her own political interests above the importance of winning the Senate seat, and that lack of judgment, loyalty and dedication to the greater good has hurt her chances. If she wins the primary, Republicans will support her, but many think she is a jerk.

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tjampel:

CompCon:

"If Romanoff wins, this will be the second senate nominee that we know of that Obama tried to bribe to drop out of the primary but won the primary instead.

I love it when corruption fails."

I agree with you...from the left. I hope Romanoff wins. Dems may well lose CO (probably will with either candidate) but Romanoff is at least running a true grassroots campaign, has spent next to nothing thus far. He isn't an insider by any means; he's opposed by the Dem establishment. (I assume his coffers will suddenly swell if he wins---DSCC isn't stupid even if they don't like him). We'll see how an unabashed liberal will do running into the wind. If he can find a way to become more populist he may have a shot.

I prefer Buck simply because, as was already pointed out by FM, Norton may grab more of the moderate vote and Buck seems to be identified as further to the right, making moderates a bit more up for grabs. It's also easier to use Bucks own statements against him in negative Ads (like his "because I'm not wearing high heels") both comically and to paint him as extreme.

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Bukama:

Between Bennet and Romanoff, Romanoff who has spent most of his career in politics, if only state politics. He was Speaker of the State Legislature, for goodness sake.

If Romanoff wins, it will be because the only Democrats energized to vote in this primary are the more liberal ones.

Buck is perceived as the more conservative candidate, but in reality, there isn;t a dime's width difference between Bck and Norton. Norton had greater name recognition coming into the primary season (even mistaken name recognition, because some people think she is Gail Norton, who is not even any relation, I believe). But both have a great chance to take back the Senate seat. And I think this is the cae even though the Governor will probably go to Democrat Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

The real question in Colorado is whether the Republicans can take back one or both houses of the state legislature. Nobody polls that issue, it seems.

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Farleftandproud:

I took a look at the Conservative/moderate/liberal advantage and Colorado is a state where Liberal and moderates have increased and conservatives decreased. I have noticed this trend in recent years, but wisconsin has slowly moved in a more conservative direction.

In the south, it is kind of hard to predict, because many consider Conservative to just mean traditional, and or someone of strong religious principles. It doesn't always mean Republican in the south.

NH surprisingly, shows a decline in conservativism, yet last week, it had the GOP with a 6 point party advantage.

I predict Dems will have a good year in CO in 2010.

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Farleftandproud:

I predict that CO will become more like Oregon and Washington in upcoming years. There will always still be conservative districts nevertheless. Part of it, is the growth around Denver and Boulder.

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IdahoMulato:

If this poll is anything to go by, Bennet is the strongest general elections candidate while Romanoff is the strongest primary candidate. I like both of them but if I were to vote, I will vote for the candidate who will likely win the general.

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Field Marshal:

IM,

That is the case of both sides of the aisle. Buck and Romanoff are either, or are considered to be, more extreme and thus do better in the primaries. Norton and Bennet are thought to be more moderate and thus their advantage in the general.

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BigMO:

FarLeft,

Dream on. Colorado is and will always be significantly more conservative than Oregon and Washington. The reality is that, whatever this poll shows, the Democrats are going to need to pull a rabbit out a hat to win this race against either Norton or Buck. Why? Because look at Obama's approval numbers in Colorado: 38%. That's toxic stuff. And the Dems will likely lose several key races a state which will, once again, shine bright red. If it weren't for a tragically lame gubernatorial race (Hick can be easily beaten by any decent GOP candidate), Colorado would have a clean sweep for the GOP.

Doesn't sound a whole lot like Oregon and Washington, does it?

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Bukama:

No, I think Hickenlooper was going to be tough to defeat no matter what the Republicans do. he's just a likeable guy who has not been strongly identified with Democrat politics (Denver's mayorial race being non-partisan). I think this is why no really good candidates came out for the Governor's race, once it was clear Hickenlooper was running. If Bill Ritter had run for a second term, you would have seen stronger Republican candidates (Penry, Schaffer or even maybe John Elway, who could run for Jesus and win in Colorado).

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Aaron_in_TX:

"And the Dems will likely lose several key races a state which will, once again, shine bright red."

I'm sorry, BRIGHT red? CO has been purple since 1988, when George Bush won by 7 points. Since then, 2004 was it's brightest red year and it closely reflected the national result. The last time a republican did better than 55% in CO was 1984. I would think BRIGHT red indicates greater than 60% like OK, WY, AL, or MS.

CO has a significant independent/green streak. Ross Perot did very well there, and Nader got 5.3% in 2000, double what he got nationally. Since then, it seems those green voters have sided with the democrats.

CO will be a swing state going forward for some time and may become the new Missouri, as that state seems to be trending more republican lately.

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tennesseedem:

Yes, clearly Colorado is going to be a solid red state from now on, just as it became a solid blue state forever and ever in 2008.

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