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CO: 49% Buck, 45% Bennet (Rasmussen 8/29)

Topics: Colorado , poll

Rasmussen
8/29/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Colorado

2010 Senate
49% Buck (R), 45% Bennet (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Ken Buck: 50 / 44
Michael Bennet: 47 / 49 (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 53 (chart)
Gov. Ritter: 44 / 54 (chart)

 

Comments
cmbat:

Senate will be:

Dems 54
Republicans 44
Indies 2

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Bob in SJ:

Within the MOE! Again, I wonder what the Guv numbers will be from this sample.

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djneedle83:

Get the recount machine ready in Nevada, Colorado, and Penn. on election night.

Just accounting for the Rass. house effect on the polling results here we have ourselves a 2 point race.

If the Democrats can squeak out wins in the 3 previously mentioned states then they claim comfort in the Senate.

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nick283:

Yeah, Reuters only had Buck up by 9 a week ago (big rasmussen house effrct). Pennsylvania seems to be sliding into the Republican column pretty strongly. Toomey has been up by 8 or 9 points in most recent polls.

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JMSTiger:

@ cmbat

If the election were held today, it would be:

51 Democrats
47 Republicans (+6)
2 Independents

As of today, I don't see any GOP held seat flipping and Arkansas, Delaware, Colorado, Indiana, North Dakota and Pennsylvania as going to the Republicans. Illinois and Nevada remain toss-ups. California, Connecticut, Washington and Wisconsin are all still very much in play. Maybe West Virginia too.

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Mogando669:

You probably need any 2 of MO/KY/OH to flip before Republicans can remain at 44. Not impossible, but unless the Tea Party goes NUTS, I can't imagine this scenario playing out.

47-48 for R's is just about on the mark given recent polling. anything above 48 would be icing on the cake, and anything below 46 is probably screw ups by Tea Party (like putting NV from slam-dunk to toss-up)


"cmbat:

Senate will be:

Dems 54
Republicans 44
Indies 2"

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Field Marshal:

Buck will win this handily. The primary turnout that was recorded spells disaster for Bennet if he isn't leading by 5 going into the week of Oct 18th, when early voting begins.

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Farleftandproud:

I am still predicting that Bennet will win this one. Buck is still way out of the mainstream.

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Field Marshal:

Buck is no more out of the mainstream than Bennet, probably even less so given Bennets voting record. Turnout in the primaries was 5-3 GOP advantage with state registration about even.

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Anthony Gonzalez:

Why cant Bennet be more charismatic? He's like a less dopey looking Dan Maes. Nobody wants to vote for him. He's just there and he's got a ton of money so what the hell. Come back Ken Salazar....we miss you.

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tjampel:

nick283:

"Yeah, Reuters only had Buck up by 9 a week ago (big rasmussen house effect). Pennsylvania seems to be sliding into the Republican column pretty strongly. Toomey has been up by 8 or 9 points in most recent polls."

Reuters had a sample of 465, so MOE is greater. They also have less experience polling CO; Ras has been polling this race every week I think or close to it. Over the past 4 weeks the margin has closed each successive week. However, the past 3 weeks the results have all been within 2 points of each other. So the race may be very stable at between 4 and 6 points. That's not a great place to be for Bennett but he may have greater resources than Buck and may be able to bring down his popularity through negative ads

As the election gets closer the Ras "house effect" tends to get smaller. We all know that, at some point their polling and that of Gallup tends to more or less converge (one on the high side and one on the low); right now it's kind of bizarre to see them reversed both in Obama rankings and Generic).

I think they make a set of assumptions for their LV that are favorable to Republicans early on and then tweak for accuracy as time goes by. They may play the role of cheerleaders in the Spring and early summer to entice candidates to enter races; in the fall it's all about accuracy.

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Farleftandproud:

Bennet isn't the most charismatic guy, but he is sane, and I think the more attack ads and money spent against the extreme ideas of Buck, he might pull it off.

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Anthony Gonzalez:

If he can get out the vote like he did against Romanoff, he might survive. Nate Silver only gives him a 23% chance of survival tho. That's not a good sign. Hope he stays tho. Good luck Michael, however timid and boring you may be.

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Farleftandproud:

STOP FASCISM AND COME TO YOUR SENSES AMERICA.

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