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CO: Obama 44, McCain 43 (Ciruli-9/19-23)

Topics: PHome

Ciruli Associates /
Economic Development Council of Colorado
9/19-23/08; 501 LV, 4.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Colorado
Obama 44, McCain 43
Sen: Udall (D) 45, Schaffer (R) 38

 

Comments
sunnymi:


Wow! they finally got a chance to publish their poll 10 days after it was taken :-)

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jamesia:

That's a really small sample size for that margin of error. Also, the party ID in the sample is 40% R, 21% Other, and 28% D .........

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RaleighNC:

No! Colorado is blue! America is blue! FAIL!

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richieBr:

This poll is 10 days old. Pre-debate and pre-bailout deal. Practically worthless.

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Justin:

Hilarious crosstabs.

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adocarbog:

"Economic Development Council of Colorado"
Sounds like a Chamber of Commerce poll and those are Republican to the max.
I was on a chamber (in safe Obama state) and let me tell you not a democrat in sight.

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Trosen:

10 days late.. 12% + for R affiliation, and still an Obama lead. Ouch.

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PortlandRocks:

LOL Another poll showing a lead. Again, look at the BIG picture.

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[nemesis]:

Hmmm... 100 people per day, 4.4% MOE. Also, maybe I'm reading it wrong, but it looks to me like a 48%R sample to 28%D... there has to be something I don't understand here.

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jamesia:

Interesting... that party ID breakdown I quoted was for the Presidential poll. The Senate poll had a party ID breakdown of 40% R, 21% Other, 38% D. There must have been 2 polls taken, or a typo on the Presidential poll breakdown. Either set of numbers is off though.

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PortlandRocks:

12% Republican lead and Obama's AHEAD? WOW. Great poll!

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[nemesis]:

Wow, didn't notice the date, and screwed up when I put the party affiliations. I meant 40%, not 48% Republican.

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adocarbog:

40% republican
28% democrat

while actual registration in the state now is democrats on top by a few points!!!

I love that even when they slant the poll Obama is on top!!!

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jamesia:

Good point Trosen. There's a Republican advantage in this poll, still Obama leads...

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sunnymi:

I think there is a typo on the Dems %.
In the last page you can see this party ID
40% R; 38% D and 21% I

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Commander_King:

This poll is insanely old.

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scott88:

This poll should be thrown out...just the fact that its 10 days old alone...

i'm certain boomidiot will grab on to this and clutch it for dear life though...guess you gotta take what you can get these days if your boomiqofa2yrold...

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richieBr:

I think that has to be a typo in there - it says it was 40%R/28%D/21%I. That can't be right.

Because of ground work done since Super Tuesday, the GOP voter ID edge has been pretty much eliminated. Its gone from about +180K to +50K. I think that if the poll was 40%R/38%D/21%I - then that would be more realistic, although the Independent weighting would still appear to be a little low.

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sunnymi:


As per the CO state SOS office the %s look like this (Aug 2008)

34% R; 30.5% D and 35.5 Others.

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[nemesis]:

Quite honestly, the only thing I see here is either 2% or 12% Republican advantage, Obama ahead (although within MOE), and all this before all of the trending towards Obama from the bailout mess.

I guess I could play the boomshak game and say that playing with MOE, it could be 48.4 Obama to 38.6 McCain. I won't do that though, because I'm not a complete idiot. ;-)

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political_junki:

40% Republican 38% Democrat and Obama still wins :))

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BOOMFAIL:

McDole is dumping MI. No big surprise, but certainly a sign of things to come!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081002/ap_on_el_pr/mccain

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Timdicator:

In what way is a 10-day old poll even remotely relevant?

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mirrorball:

McCain's camp is doing a conference call with reporters at 5:45 to discuss "the state of the race." I assume this is in response to the Politico story on them pulling out of Michigan.

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Hope Reborn:

wow, Obama is even leading in the Old GOP Internal polls of CO?

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1magine:

HA HA HA HA HA HA - OMFG This poll is funny. We had one like this, I think right after the Dem convention showing Sydney leading. With the same fun crosstabs, showing that the poll was taken at a Sydney for Pres rally in Faux News studio. But the funniest thing is - it still shows a BO lead.

boomy woomy - did you order this poll?

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1magine:

Portland love the link - but it leaves out M&Ms.

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faithhopelove:

5 polls of CO have been in the field since this one, with 3 finding a larger Obama lead, one showing a tie, and the other giving McCain a lead.

Internals for both campaigns must show this race very close, as Obama visited CO Monday, Michelle Obama visited there yesterday, McCain visits there today, and Palin is scheduled to visit there soon.

Anecdotally, my 6 CO relatives appear set to cancel-out each other, 3 for Obama and 3 for McCain.

CO will go down to the wire. With Obama in position to hold PA, MI, WI, and MN, CO is one of 9 states that the race has come down to, along with NH, VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, MO, and NV.

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KipTin:

Point to keep in mind:

Margin of error is based on sample size (i.e. 1 divided by square root of number of respondents).

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Mike_in_CA:

KipTin:

MOE also includes any additional post-interview weighting the pollster may have done. Probably why this pollster has larger error.

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VivalaRevolucion:

You Libs are interesting .. You only like the polls that show your Bozama significantly ahead .. Get over it .. The tide is turning and the ladslide will take Bozama and Goofball down !!!

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VivalaRevolucion:

You Libs are funny ! You only like the polls that show Bozama ahead .. Well the tide is turning and the landslide will be taking Bozama and Baffoniden down !!

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change:

@VR

what r u smoking? Mccain is getting pounded just like he did in has by nips when he was P.O.W.
the little weasel pulled out of michigan, he's down in OH and PA= GAME OVER

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KipTin:

Margin of error for 501 participants is 1 divided by square root of 501 = 1/22.38 = .0447

Actually, this pollster has 4.4% (smaller error) which is slightly less than calculated error of 4.47%.

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PaddyMac22:

think about it. dont you want a dem to take over this entire mess. thats what they do. we run up the debt, form big spending, and increase govt. let 4 years of a dem come in and do what it takes to get us back on track. we will win this back in 2012. Who the heck do we have that will pull this situation into a positive? We dont have one. Let obama win, let him deal with it, (come on it's us that f#cked up). Think about it, our party did it. If they want to clean it up, let them. WE messed up. We where supposed to reduce govt and reduce taxes for all americans and reduce spending, but we did exatly the opposite. oops, we messed that up. so let the dems figure it out. look Repbs, we sucked, let them do the hard work and get everything back to square, then we will come back in 2012 after its all worked out. anybody with me?

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As you can see after watching the debate Sarah Palin has no plan for the economy, and no plan to end this war in Iraq. She did not give one specific detail about the economy or the war in Iraq. McCain and Palin are all frosting and no cake. McCain and Palin are all about phony imagery with no substance. I don't trust McCain and Palin. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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