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Convention Odds and Ends

Topics: Barack Obama , David Plouffe , Ed Reilly , Geoff Garin , Targeting , Twitter

First, a quick update on yesterday's post on the Obama campaign briefing. First, James Barnes of the National Journal has a write-up of the strategy spelled out by campaign manager David Plouffe yesterday that includes extended verbatim excerpts from the briefing.

In the briefing, Plouffe emphasized that when it comes to polling "all we care about is these 18 states." I had not specified those 18 states, but they are: Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

Second, on Tuesday, I participated in a panel on polling put on by the National Journal along with Hotline editor Amy Walter and pollsters Ed Reilly, who conducts the Diageo Hotline poll and Geoff Garin, who worked for Hillary Clinton earlier this year. Video excerpts from that panel are now available at the this link.

Finally, in an hour or so, I will be going offline and heading over to Invesco Field for the evening. I've been experimenting with Twitter this week (under the handle of, what else, MysteryPollster), and will probably post some comments there tonight (with the caveat that any such "tweets" are likely to be a bit off our usual focus on polling and surveys).

 

Comments
Allen:

Interesting that the Obama campaign is tracking Wisconsin and not Minnesota. According the the Battle Rankings at election-projection.net, MN currently has a greater chance of affecting the outcome than WI.

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Allen:

The article at National Journal quotes Plouffe as saying that McCain has zero percent chance of winning if he loses either Ohio or Florida. Interestingly again, the Interactive Presidential Election Probability Calculator at election-projection.net does not agree with that statement, primarily because McCain is currently chipping into some Kerry states such as NH and MN.

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Sorry to post this here, but I have been unable to find an e-mail address. Your RSS Feed is not updating on Google.

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boskop:

i'm in paris and was delighted to hear as it broke that john mccain got my memo about sarah palin who i've been raving about on this blog for god knows how long.

talk about sitting on the rock star and handing him a big stomp on his bounce.

what baffles me is how no pundits ever went for this woman and little ole me did. it was soooooo obvious.

anyway: about that lame argument that the dems are busy pumping about no experience cauterizing mccains attacks on obama..

i have this to say: obama is running for president, duh. palin is not. the contest just to reiterate for those who are desperate here, is obama versus mccain.

palin is the experience match for obama.
nuff siad.

hallelujah , amen.

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boskop:

i'm in paris and was delighted to hear as it broke that john mccain got my memo about sarah palin who i've been raving about on this blog for god knows how long.

talk about sitting on the rock star and handing him a big stomp on his bounce.

what baffles me is how no pundits ever went for this woman and little ole me did. it was soooooo obvious.

anyway: about that lame argument that the dems are busy pumping about no experience cauterizing mccains attacks on obama..

i have this to say: obama is running for president, duh. palin is not. the contest just to reiterate for those who are desperate here, is obama versus mccain.

palin is the experience match for obama.
nuff siad.

hallelujah , amen.

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In all honesty, I can't imagine that my home state of Minnesota is in play. Obama is a natural fit with the Prairie Populist traditions, which are all about people rather than politics. We do appear to be trending to the right lately, but that can be explained by the DFL drifting away from what is important.

People here value personality over issues, which explains Ventura (in case anyone was wondering). Obama is very much our type of person, and we should go handily for him now that the party has been united.

I wrote about this on my blog at some length (URL above) if anyone wants more.

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Allen:

@ Erik,

Couldn't the same thing be said about John "The Maverick" McCain? He would seem to compare well with Jesse "The Body" Ventura. I'm not sure what would make Obama better than McCain on the personality points you mentioned--if fact, McCain would seem to arguably be better.

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Gary Kilbride:

The progressive sites are having a field day ripping the Palin choice. Predictably clueless. I was only worried about two McCain options, Palin and Condi Rice. I noticed that Chris Bowers posted the same thought today.

Palin is a desperate choice that McCain had to make. I'd damn sure try to win if the margin for error were tilted against me.

The problem in this case is Palin won't come across as a desperate pick, once the nation gets to know her. I'm very familiar with Alaska and Palin. I follow that state closely because its polls skew toward Democrats so you get incredible bargains in the wagering. In 2006, when the markets wrongly assumed the elder Murkowski would be the GOP nominee vs. Knowles, I got a surreal price on the Republican ticket winning the Alaska gov race, nearly 4/1.

Every political gambler I talked to or emailed with today thinks McCain is slightly better positioned with Palin. That was my instinct also. I damn sure wish he had named a Joe Blow White Guy.

For one thing, Biden won't destroy Palin the the VP debate. I've hosted debate watching parties for 10 years and I know what apolitical types prioritize in that setting. Palin's warmth is going to come across very well.

I watched every Alaska primary and general election debate in 2006, so this isn't without reference point. Palin was polling in the high 30s before the final debate of the 3-way primary. She charmed in that debate, albeit light in specifics, with a relaxed style, and ended up busting 50% in the primary days later. Everyone who was following the race closely was astonished at that 50% showing, including myself. She also won the undecideds

Otherwise, some of those states have no business on a list of 18. If Obama wins Georgia I'll leap from Stone Mountain with Zell Miller on my back.

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Allen:

@ Gary,

Well then, here's a great polling question, and one we all of to ask ourselves anyway: can you picture Palin as President?

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