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Crist Falling in Florida

Topics: 2010 , florida , Illinois , senate , West Virginia

New Senate polls released yesterday confirm the current standings in four states, but a new independent poll in Florida shows a bigger than average lead for Republican Marco Rubio and a continuing decline for Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist.

The automated Voter Survey Service poll poll in Florida shows Republican Marco Rubio with 43% of the vote and a double-digit lead over independent Charlie Crist (29%) and Democrat Kendrick Meek (23%). It confirms the decline in Crist's support shown in other surveys as support for Rubio and Meek began to rise following the August primary.

Rubio's position is enviable, since he now receives 70% of the Republican vote (on the two most recent surveys), while Crist and Meek continue to divide the Democratic vote. His lead over Crist has grown to six points on our trend estimate (38.7% to 32.6%), enough to classify the race as leaning Republican. In a pattern we noted yesterday, Rubio does better on the automated Voter Survey Service poll (43%) than on other recent surveys done with live interviewers.


But Crist's decline makes voter preferences in this race especially volatile. The last two polls have shown Crist ahead of Meek by an average 10 and 6 points. How many of Crist's supporters will stick with him if polls in the next few weeks show Meek tied with or slightly ahead of Crist?

Elsewhere, Rasmussen Reports released new automated survey results for four states, Arizona, Illinois, Missouri and West Virginia. The polls shows no consistent trend compared to Rasmussen's previous surveys in the same states a month ago, with non-significant variation in all but Arizona.

In Arizona, a state in which only Rasmussen has released public surveys since April, they show an eight point net improvement for John McCain's Democratic challenger Rodney Glassman since August, although McCain still leads comfortably (51% to 37%).

Rasmussen shows a slight drift for Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois, from dead even in August to a four-point deficit against Republican Mark Kirk (37% to 41%), although the change is not statistically significant. Our trend estimate, based on all recent public polls, shows this contest to be a virtual tie (38.7% Giannoulias to 38.6% Kirk) -- the closest in the nation as of this morning.

Rasmussen's West Virginia poll shows Democrat Joe Manchin continues to narrowly lead Republican John Raese by roughly the same margin (50% to 45%) that Rasmussen measured a month ago. As with Arizona, Rasmussen is the only public pollster to release results since a Repass and Partners poll showed Manchin leading by 22 points (54% to 32%) in early August.

 

Comments

It's interesting that a lot of posters here were predicting that Rasmussen's pro-GOP likely voter screen would, as we now get past the traditional post-Labor Day election "game on," become more realistic and start showing results closer to other pollsters in a lot of races.

However, this does not appear to be happening. If anything, his polls seem to be diverging more away from other less partisan pollsters and becoming even more pro-Republican.

Have others noticed that also, and does anyone have any theories on what might be happening? Or is it still too early in the game for Rasmussen to both serve up his pro-GOP narrative and also try to keep his record of final poll accuracy?

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AmazingThings:

You should know by now that Rasmussen is not a reputable pollster. You shouldn't be treating him as one, or trying to rationally explain his results. He is a fraud, plain and simple.

Rasmussen is a perfect example of why the polling industry needs to be regulated, so we can weed out all the charlatans.

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Dave:

Lol. More regulation- the liberal fix for everything.

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StatyPolly:

Nelcon, WHAT?!

Haven't you read the analysis worked up by a poster here, that compared Ras to PPP in recent statewide contests? They're all virtually identical.

And look at generic. ABC's first of the season likely voter model produced R+13, and NBC's R+18 - greater GOP lead than any of Ras' polls.

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StatyPolly:
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gabe:

Statypolly, talking sense to Nelcon is no use. For months this is what political pundits have predicted in Florida. If Meek toughed it out and stuck with his challenge and won his priamry than he could begin to take Dems from Crist. Crist meanwhile, in his bid to solidify Democrats would have to move to the left losing most of the GOP support to Rubio and further weakening him among independents. RV polls have not showed the movement because they simply predict from a registered sample all oolled will vote. LV models take other factors into account that benefit Rubio and show him farther ahead. Crist was always in danger of being squeezed out of the race and it may be starting as voters start tuning in.

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Henry Henwy:

This just goes to show that you can bring some libs to sanity, but you can't make them drink. Rasmussen results have been pretty stable for months now, in things like the generic ballot, and what we've seen instead is that other pollsters now get similar results upon switching over to their likely voter screens. Not to mention the similarity in results between Rasmussen and other automated pollsters like PPP, which is a dem-polling organization. All of that doesn't fit the rabid anti-rasmussen narriative by the left and so it's discarded whole cloth.

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