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CT: 2010 Sen (GQR 12/15-17)

Topics: poll

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for Chris Dodd
12/15-17/09; 601 likely voters
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CT Democratic Party release)

Connecticut

2010 Senate (trends)
Chris Dodd (D) 46%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%
Rob Simmons (R) 51%, Chris Dodd (D) 46% (chart)

 

Comments
Quentin Menzel:

These numbers look better for Dodd than most...I'm not sure I know much about this polling group, but it's probably a bit of an outlier.

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Field Marshal:

That's because the polling was done on behalf of Dodd. See, since the polling firm made him look better, he will now give them more business going forward.

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Stillow:

Its safe to add Dodd to the growing list of probable Democratic losses in 2010.

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Louis:

It is far form safe to assume Dodd will lose this election. 1) It is almost a year away.2)Conn. remains a strongly Democractic state. 3) Incumbenents have alot of strings to pull in their favor.
the biggest thing Republicans have going for them is Simmons who is to the left of most Republicans and thus more salable to Conn. Democrats and Independents who may be tired of
Dodd. We will have a much better read on this as well a most other races next September.
Until then I would not bet against Dodd.

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Stillow:

Louis

1. A year prior to NJ polls showed Corzine losing

2. NJ was a solidly blue state also.

3. Corzine was an incumbant who had the big cheese, Obama himself come campaign for him.

The left is missing whats happening here. Early polls are great because they provide watermarks for which to base future happenings. Dodd is in deep trouble...as are many many many other Dems. A solid blue state and being an incumbant will no longer save these corrupt Dems like Dodd. NJ is a perfect example. as for Dems in purple states.....we will see results similar to VA....Indy's are moving and they are moving right....thats just how it is.

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MikeyA:

NE has conservatives in it. Fiscal Conservatives.

As the Repubs moved farther and farther away from fiscal conservatives their chances in NE races dropped dramatically. NH and ME-1 were once places where a Republican had a very strong chance of winning.

Now with the tea parties and the increased gov't spending fiscal conservatives have their strongest chances even in very liberal states.

I won't doubt if CT goes red this year. In fact I look for other NE districts and states to move more purple.

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tjampel:

CT may be in the process of rejecting Dodd; it isn't going purple. That's like saying that, if Ensign is defeated it shows that Dems are gaining strength in Nevada. Dodd is extremely unpopular for both his involvement with Countywide Mortgage(getting preferential treatment) and for his allowing hige bonuses for bailed-out AIG execs. If not for these two non-partisan issues he'd be in far better shape, though he'd have a tougher road than last time around, for sure.

Dems will have trouble holding a lot of seats this cycle and Dodd is among the most vulnerable Dems, along with Reid. It's NOT partisan for Dodd; Reid's a different case, certainly.

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tjampel:

BTW Dodd has a shot against McMann and she certainly has the money to outspend Simmons.

After reading about the steroid issues in Pro Wrestling and her comments on this topic as well as the way she treats active and retired pro wrestlers I think she's particularly vulnerable. Former WWF (the precursor to WWE) Bruno Sammartino has spent the last 10 years or so fighting against the McManns for there refusal to get involved in the steroid issue and for their tacit acceptance and even facilitation of its use among its stars.

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tjampel:

that is former WWF heavyweight champion, the longest reigning champion by many years (almost 11 years during the 60s and 70s). He was also holder of the world bench press record at one time so...he actually had some athletic ability too

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Farleftandproud:

I have faith that Dodd will pull it out. The GOP is getting their hopes up too soon in CT. Northeastern states with the exception of PA and NH tend to be solidly Blue, yet there are some conservative districts. Dodd doesn't have experienced competition other than Rob Simmons; I know he is a moderate candidate and would give Dodd a tougher race than he has ever had before, but I think Dodd will prevail.

Specter I predict won't make it because of his party switch and he will likely get the nomination but his short-term membership of the Democratic party will make it tough for him. Sestak being true to his party's platform and a sincere Democrat needs to work hard to win the nomination.

Harry Reid I predict will prevail. He has experience and money, and the opponents are not qualified by a longshot. I predict Colorado will be a loss for the Democrats and I don't think Blanche Lincoln will get re-elected. Democrats have really written off the deep south, and she has tried so hard govern in the bible belt and fight reform that there won't be a strong enough movement to help her get re-elected. I have PA, Arkanas and Colorado as GOP pickups so far in the senate. I predict the Democrats will prove people wrong and pick up a seat in either NH or Missouri.

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libertybrewcity:

Lol, this poll is missing Peter Schiff. His campaign is making a splash. Not only does Peter have a large sum of money to outspend McMahon and Simmons, his supporters gave him over 1 million in the first quarter mostly in online donations.

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Stillow:

Farleftandproud

Reid does have a huge war chest. Bu tas we saw with Corzine, its much harder these days to buy a seat. Reid has spent millions in the past 4 weeks running ads like crzy here and he is actually down in local polling. He is finished.

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IdahoMulato:

It's amazing how Stillow continues to use the last two gubernatorial election results as benchmark for what will happen in 2010. GOP will pick some seats: They will pick AR plus 2 of the ff: CT, PA, NV and CO. Three seats now held by GOP will be in Dem column: OH, NH and MO. There will be a knashing of teeth come Nov 2010 I bet.

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Louis:

Stillow,
The race for Govenor was a local race decided on the issues of property taxes and corruption. Governor's race are far different tha Senate races. Which is way you have Democratic Governors in states that never go Democratic in national elections and vice-versa. Also there will be no third party candidate in Conn. to siphon off vote for those who don't like the incumbent but can't bring themselves to vote for a Republican.
Finally you ignore the fact that Simmons is to the left of most Republicans that doesn't serve you usual the Republicans must stay to the right rhetoric.

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Deon:

They also ignore Peter Schiff in this poll as well, they are trying to snuff out the only real candidate running for Dodd's seat.

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