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CT: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 9/10)


Rasmussen
9/10/09; 500 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(Rasmussen release

Connecticut

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 59 / 39 (chart)
Gov. Rell: 55 / 43 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chris Dodd (D): 40 / 59 (chart)
Rob Simmons (R): 53 / 32
Tom Foley (R): 33 / 35
Sam Caligiuri (R): 32 / 32
Peter Schiff (R): 27 / 35

2010 Senate (trends)
Simmons 49%, Dodd 39% (chart)
Foley 43%, Dodd 40%
Dodd 43%, Caligiuri 40% (chart)
Dodd 42%, Schiff 40%

 

Comments
Aaron_in_TX:

Because it's rasmussen, I'm going to assume Dodd is 3-5 points higher than this poll says. However, he should probably consider retiring. CT is only a shade or so lighter blue than VT, and a dem is losing bad. Although Simmons is a pretty moderate republican, and only barely lost his last election.

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Paul:

Having lived in CT for 16 years and having been interested, involved and aware of what is going on in politics here and nationally, this is what I believe will happen based on what we know today.

First, I agree with Aaron_in_TX and it would appear that just about every objective analyst says that Rasmussen polls generally favor Republicans, let's say, 4 points on average (that brings Simmons' lead down from 10 to 6).

Second, both parties will spend a huge amount of money so I do not see any difference down the line in fund raising.

Third, Simmons has been out of office (albeit he lost to Joe Courtney in the 2nd CD in 2006, just barely - less than 100 points) and I believe in 2010 when GOP across the country will gain seats, being out of office is a good thing for GOP (add 4 points to Simmons - lead back to 10).

Third, big assumption - we shall see - President Obama is very popular in CT, despite favorability ratings across the country down (I believe largely because people are grouchy that the economy is so lousy), IF Obama comes to CT - I give Dodd +4 for each visit - and it has to be Obama. Let's say Barack rolls in three times, +12 for Dodd and he leads by two.

Fourth, the credit debacle which Dodd is seen as being at least partially responsible for, huge loss for Dodd, let's say -12, now Dodd down by 10.

Fifth, a lot of time between now and the election. Assuming economy improves before the election, how much? Is that worth 10 points - let's say it is - level match.

This is mostly about the negative gut level response to Dodd and much less to any appreciable understanding about Simmons' across the state and where he would lead us, except Simmons appears to be a nice guy and is most certainly not an incumbent --- nice guy and not incumbent is good, +2. So I see this election as of next November as Simmons +2.

Appreciate responses, add variables, add or delete assumptions, and change factor loadings, let's see what you think.

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