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CT: 50% Blumenthal, 40% McMahon (Quinnipiac 7/28-8/2)

Topics: Connecticut , poll

Quinnipiac
7/28-8/2/10; 1,299 registered voters, 2.7% margin of error
1,003 likely Republican primary voters, 3.1% margin of error (separate sample)
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Connecticut

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
47% McMahon, 30% Simmons, 14% Schiff (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
54% Blumenthal (D), 35% Simmons (R) (chart)
50% Blumenthal (D), 40% McMahon (R) (chart)
57% Blumenthal (D), 30% Schiff (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Blumenthal: 57 / 30
Rob Simmons: 40 / 14
Linda McMahon: 43 / 37
Peter Schiff: 16 / 9

 

Comments
Rockym92:

ummm, wow. By far as close as this has been, though this is probably McMahons ceiling and Blumenthals floor. Will probably be a 15+ point W for Blumenthal.

Sad to see that Schiff hasn't gained any ground in the GOP primary. he's by far the best/smartest candidate in the race.

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Field Marshal:

Tancredo, Buck, and Mcinnis are too extreme, and Colorado has not elected extremists in the past.

Every republican is too extreme for you given that you espouse socialistic and other nutty (see: extreme) ideas. Remember, you are the minority. More people espouse what Tancredo, McInnis, and Buck believe than what YOU believe- probably by more than 3-1. So you are the extremist, not them.

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Coldfusion:

Always enlightening to hear what Field Marshal has to say....

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Mogando669:

this D+10 is only for RV, so once you factor in LV, maybe it's more like D+5 ?

When you have to spend money defending things that's supposedly "in the bag," that's the biggest sign that the national outcome will look ugly. That $10mil Reid has is being wasted to fend off a no-name Angle instead of helping other colleagues.

When you have deep-blue states like DE that's long gone, IL/WA that's toss-up, CA/WI within striking distance, and CT from "done deal" to only "lean Dem".... bad omen.

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billwy:

So this is only among RV? I had written this state off as a GOP pickup opportunity. Is this poll reason to put it back on the board?

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billwy:

So this is only among RV? I had written this state off as a GOP pickup opportunity. Is this poll reason to put it back on the board?

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Moravej:

LOL @ Rocky for thinking Peter Schiff is the smartest person in the race. He runs on a platform of "I'm smart, everyone else is stupid so vote for me." He predicted the U.S. would experience hyperinflation and he has the nerve to call notable economists clueless. There is only one nation in the world that has hyperinflation, predicting that for the U.S. is just plain stupid. The reason he's in the race is to promote conspiracy theories about the dollar so people will invest in his company.

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Farleftandproud:

This race will be closer than you think. It sounds like Mcmahon at least has some basic knowledge of the issues and can explain herself. She isn't as much of a failure of a candidate as Sharron Angle.

Blumenthal, is still a pretty popular guy,and has tried to make things right with the people of CT about his misinformation about not serving in Vietnam. CT is a state where experience counts; he'll win.

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Louis:

Field Marchall
Tacandero couldn;t be elected dog catcher. in Colorado.
Nutty ideas are in the eye of the behoder and todays nutty idea is tommorrows billant one. Only time will tell how it all works out.
Calling an idea Socialist does not any way substitute for an intellegent discussion of the idea itself. Lets stop hanging labels on everything and actually discuss the ideas.

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Rockym92:

"He predicted the U.S. would experience hyperinflation and he has the nerve to call notable economists clueless."

He is the guy who predicted the housing market collapse and the recession over a year before it happened while all the "notable economists" were laughing at him.

He said hyper-inflation is a real possibility in the USA's future. If you think it isn't a possibilty, you're nuts.

He is right, the economists and politicians (dems and GOPers) running this country are clueless.

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Farleftandproud:

There is a difference between having ideas which are too far right or too far left, but the way that some of these candidates like Buck, Tancredo, Angle, and Rand Paul have expressed insensitive comments, which explicitly prove the very thing that people like myself question. Angle and Buck both stated that rape would not be a possible reason a woman could have an abortion, Paul stated that Mines should not be regulated and the Americans with disabilities act could be changed or even repealed, and Tancredo and others turning the topic of tougher immigration laws into racial profiling. Their extreme way of expressing themselves go above and beyond what there positions are.

I can think of politicians who probably have similar views on some of these issues, but they are more careful in wording their statements.

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Moravej:

Zimbabwe is the only country in the world with Hyperinflation. I suggest you look up what it means before you consider it a serious problem. Notice I did not say that high inflation is impossible. But there is a clear difference between the two.

There are thousands of economists in the world that always predict that the economy will crash if things aren't done their way. Schiff guessed right, that doesn't mean he's brilliant. Paul Krugman, Joseph Stiglitz, Nouriel Roubini all predicted the crash and have completely different conclusions about the situation now. Hell, even Jim Cramer kind of predicted a crash.

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Field Marshal:

Coldfusion,

Thanks! Wish i could say the same about you. But alas... no.

Louis,

Why couldn't he be elected? He was a congressmen for several terms. That statement makes zero sense.

I see you want to discuss the ideas. That's fine. Are you going to state the same thing to the preponderance of ignorant and idiotic posts the liberals write on this site? Probably not i'm sure. Typical leftie tactic.

I would agree with you that nutty ideas are in the eye of the beholder. But several libies on this board think Angle, Buck, Tancredo, Paul hold "nutty" ideas when their ideas are much more mainstream than the ideas of the person who is calling them nutty. So, who in fact is the person with the nutty ideas?

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Bukama:

FLAP,

I personally believe abortions should be allowed during the first trimester, and disallowed in most circumstances after that. But you must see that if one is convinced a life exists from the moment of conception, the fact that that life was created by a criminal act of rape does not change in any way the belief that that abortion murders that life.

The only possible excuse for abortion if you believe life begins at conception is that the pregnancy will kill the mother. I believe life begins when there is brain activity, and that starts after the first tri-mester, so I oppose abortion after that point. And because we are talking about another human being, it is not legitimate to say "Don't like abortion, don't have one." If you believe it is murder, you have to oppose it.

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Crimsonite:

Very interesting Bukama, about the brain activity theorem. I know someone who believes that it should be banned after the heart starts beating which I think is at 7-8 weeks or near there.

If you look at just Quinnipiac's polls, Blumenthal's margin has only ever shrunk and its's basically along a strait line. I think his polling numbers will continue to decline as people stop seeing him as a reputable AG and see that he has to take substantial positions, confront a well-funded opponent, and deal with his controversy. Remember, this race was leaning ever so slightly Republican until Dodd dropped out, so people still accepted the Republican candidates even if they didn't necessarily love them. I think the question in this race is just how fast or slow Blumenthal's margin drops and whether it does negative or even statistically tied before election day.

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Louis:

Field marshell,
I rarely post on here any more. Left, right or center. I have no use for rhetoric over ideas. Then our plenty of people on this site of all political persausions who would ratther score points than discuss ideas.The discussion of ideas is nt a left , right or center thing it is supposed to be what intellegent people do in a democracy.
Tacendero was a congress persson this means he was able to be elected in one district. It does not mean he could get elected statewide that just isn't going to happen.
On a completly different question I woonder if Rand Paul's view on the Middle East are the same as his fathers. How are all those Christian fundementalists going to respond if it turns out Rand is pro-palestianian.

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Field Marshal:

How are all those Christian fundementalists going to respond if it turns out Rand is pro-palestianian.

Doubtful it will make any difference. Same way if Conway came out as anti-Palestinian and Pro-Israel (have no idea if he is or not as his website is fairly weak). One small obscure issue will have little affect on the actual results.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Field Marshal

"Every republican is too extreme for you given that you espouse socialistic and other nutty (see: extreme) ideas. "

I've read your comments regarding the health care legislation that is now law. In your mind, it's a socialist takeover. In reality, it's the plan put forward by Republicans in the 1990's as an alternative to then President Clinton's plan.

When the Republicans drafted it, it wasn't called socialism.

Right wingers are way beyond extreme. Ask any conservative politician running for office if they support Social Security.

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Farleftandproud:

Bukama:
FLAP,

"I personally believe abortions should be allowed during the first trimester, and disallowed in most circumstances after that. But you must see that if one is convinced a life exists from the moment of conception, the fact that that life was created by a criminal act of rape does not change in any way the belief that that abortion murders that life.

Yeah, I would believe that before the first tri-mester it should be legal, but after that it shouldn't unless it is a rape, insest or serious threat to the mother's health.

I can't change those who believe life begins at conception in their viewpoints, and they can't change me for not believing that, but because we are not a theocracy, at least in most states, the right has to be protected.

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ndirish11:

Schiff could pull off an upset victory. The August 10th primary is what really counts. There is a bigger difference between Peter Schiff and Linda McMahon then there is between Linda and Dick Blumenthal, MUCH BIGGER.

If McMahon wins the primary or even Simmons, then Stillow and FarLeftandProud can run down the daisy field together hand in hand because another Washington Insider has just won another Senate Race. Blumenthal and McMahon are both corrupt insiders. They don't know their own positions until their aides tell them what to believe in. They are in the race purely for themselves. Linda can call herself an outsider, but when you have a billion dollars you are for sure already a Washington insider somehow and to top it off she goes out buys the Republican endorsement.

If being Republican actually means something to you, if you actually believe that we need a small, limited government then you have to vote for Peter Schiff. Schiff deplores government, you may think he goes to far BUT THAT'S WHAT WE NEED. Because these Republicans we have now don't go nearly far enough. Conservatives today and people who support them mine as well wear a shirt that says "I'm a liberal democrat."

When we elect leaders like Blumenthal or McMahon we aren't electing members to the United States Congress, we are electing the new board of directors for Goldman Sach's! Wake up Stillow, Field Marshall and others. If you are actually a conservative, if you are not lying when you say you are a conservative and if you want a true smaller government, and personal responsibilities, then the people of CT need to elect Peter Schiff.

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MikeyA:

This is a win Repubs even if it's a loss.

That's because it's one more seat that the Dems will HAVE to spend money to defend. It's doubtful that the GOP will give as much to McMahon as they will someone like Rubio and she will still run a huge campaign on her own dime.

While I think this is still going to remain a blue seat it will mean CA, OH, WI and PA have a stronger chance of going red(OH staying red).

Blumenthal needs to do something to pull away for his party's sake.

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