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CT-Sen: 49% Blumenthal (D), 46% McMahon (R) (Quinnipiac 9/21-26)

Topics: Connecticut , poll

Quinnipiac
9/21-26/10; 1,083 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Connecticut

2010 Senate
49% Blumenthal (D), 46% McMahon (R) (chart)

 

Comments
Dave:

Yep, this one is definitely in play. Also, how can anyone give Boehner crap about being too tan, when Dems have this guy running in Connecticut?

http://johnpaulus.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/1.jpg

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billwy:

Q seemed to have a tight likely voter screen in NY and OH last week. Nevertheless, this confirms what Ras saw yesterday. Money will take you a long way in American politics...I'm not saying McMahon doesn't have capabilites...it's just that when you can flood the media it's bound to be somewhat close.

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BH:

Blumenthal is now under 50 while Linda is within 3. It's now time to consider putting this one in the toss-up pile given McMahon's momentum. With simply too much time and too bad of an economy for Blumenthal to quickly recover to previous levels, Linda is legitimately a contender in this race now.

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niikeb:

Actually I'm rooting for Blumenthal on this one. I do not want someone like McMahon in DC representing "conservatives". Blumenthal is a more moderate dem then Dodd, so we win either way, with his being more nuanced on Abortion and agaisnt gay Marriage. Schiff I would have supported, Simmons was to the left of Blumenthal, McMahon will be a drag on the Republican brand with her past. Blumenthal is at least a semi competant Democrat.

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niikeb:

FLAP, the one thing I fully agree with you on is mine safety, but you liberals are trying to kill off strip mining, which is really the safest way to mine. I'm very pro union and safety regulation when it comes to our miners and other heavy industry workers. But the EPA under Obama is forcing the miners into the holes, when it is much safer (though it makes the area look like crap for a couple decades) to use strip mining.

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Farleftandproud:

Well, I don't know if mining is the real reason that states like KY or WV. I think it is much darker reason, the clean coal rumors are just an excuse. Bill Clinton had similar ideas and they really liked him in both states. Obama is concerned about a lot of people who he knows will never vote for him. He gave a sincere heart felt speech after the recent mining disaster and Obama has really hit the people hard who could have possibly prevented the tragedy from happening. It is truly sad that they would rather support the same kind of greedy industrialists for senate rather than someone who genuinely cares about them.

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Mogando669:

pretty good trends.

screwed up DE, but in return, traded in good momentum in WI, WV, CT, and IL. CA and WA was always a bit of wishful thinking anyway.

if Rass is correct (and they generally are reasonably close), GOP is guaranteed +4 (ND, AR, IN, PA), expected +7 (half of WI, CO, IL, NV, WV, in that order). If they can grab all 5 of those, it's already 50/50 Senate split. Then either flipping Liebermen/B.Nelson or ANY of CA/CT/WA/DE.

CT-Senate is DEFINITELY the classic example of rabbit napping and turtle winning.

So the theoretical maximum for GOP is probably 54-46, but i think 49 or 50 GOP is very easily attainable.

Of course, Dems will claim victory if they can retain the Senate in a 50-50 split.

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Cederico:

This is definitely a tossup with a slight DEM lean. Blumenthal has the edge still because of his personal popularity and the Democratic lean of the state. This is a state where Obama can actually be a help to Blumenthal.

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niikeb:

@FLAP, Agreed, Manchin is a much better leader. No matter what I think he takes Rockerfella's seat in 2014 if he can't win now.
@Mogand, I would rather have a 50/50 split, make Biden throw as many deciding votes as it takes, make Nelson, McCaskill, Tester, Conrad, Webb, and Casey (who is a great guy) side with the President time after time to take away their Conservadem coating. Republicans could take 15+ seats (with threats on 2-3) in 2012 if they keep forcing the Obama admin into trying to force through laws. That would most easily be done by a 50/50 split making the Democratic senators put their necks on the line vote after vote.

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Field Marshal:

McMahon is closing in fast. How can 49% of CT support a greedy, ambulance-chasing, lying, middle-class hating, racist, bigoted, lower-class hating, unpersonable, white, male, jewish, brooklynite like Blumenthal?

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jmartin4s:

@FM seriously, Blumenthal isn't Hitler get real! However, Blumenthal is experiencing a George Allen like hemorrhage and if it continues to happen Linda McMahon will win the election. She has a great campaign style and is aligning her politics with that of popular governor Jodi Rell. Blumenthal needs to step it up.

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Bob in SJ:

Looking at the last poll, when Quinn switched from RV to LV, it was 6 points. Now it's three, so it could be explained by noise, as both totals float within the MOE of the poll. CT is probably a state where the DEM can count on a few extra points on election day, so if Blumenthal's can cling to this lead, he'll win. Again, this is going to be decided by 5% or less - that kind of year.

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Farleftandproud:

Another reason this poll is crap is the folling. "Blumenthal leads 89 - 9 percent among Democrats. McMahon leads 80 - 16 percent among Republicans. Independent voters shift from 47 - 46 percent for Blumenthal September 14 to 49 - 44 percent for McMahon today. In a gender reversal, women back Blumenthal 56 - 39 percent while men back McMahon 52 - 44 percent. "

This is CT, and Democrats have about a 15 point edge over registered Republicans. Quinnipiac overpolled Republicans, because Mcmahon is pretty much even with Independents. I figured she would have a lead among them.

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Paleo:

"unpersonable, white, male, jewish, "

You mean like Joe Lieberman?

Nice anti-Semitism there. I guess we know now why you adopted the Field Marshall handle.

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Field Marshal:

So Paleo, you would then agree that FLAP and melvin are bigoted as well i assume unless you are a hypocrite- and you couldn't be that could you?

I was showing you people what FLAP and Melvin along with a few other nuts on here sound like when they describe the GOP candidates. According to them, they are all nutcases who want minorities back into slavery, couldn't care less that people are struggling as long as the rich are taken care of, etc. Now you see the idiocy of some on the left and you should take note that WHERE the extremists really lay.

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vincent106:

@FM

I got your hints. Seems like the libtards on here can't take their own medicine or have a sense of humor. It is apparantly okay to call GOP's every name in the book but saying something about a libtard is outlawed.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"but saying something about a libtard is outlawed."

Using the word "libtard" doesn't really help your case and is emblematic of our dysfunctional politics.

If both sides refuse to even acknowledge the concerns of the other, then we get nowhere. I will consider cutting taxes if you consider my concern over bankruptcies due to health costs. But those sorts of compromises don't happen. Instead, one side says the other side's concerns are not valid.

We're really descending into 19th century-style politics, which were quite similar.

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Bob in SJ:

@ vincent

Like Aaron said, you might have had a point if you didn't use libtard twice.

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Field Marshal:

Using the word "libtard" doesn't really help your case and is emblematic of our dysfunctional politics.

Not sticking up for Vincent but isn't that the case when libies use the world "teabagger"? What's the difference?

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Bob in SJ:

@FM

Well, I, for one, have not used the term in some time. I generally save my invective for candidates. Generally.

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