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Daily Roundup 11.27.06


  • Quinnipiac is out with a new national survey (via Political Wire) that includes "thermometer" ratings of 20 different national figures and potential presidential candidates.  Since September, Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi has improved her ranking while Sen. Harry Reid remains at the colder end of the scale just above Sen. John Kerry's dead last ranking. Former NYC Mayor Rudoph Guiliani remains at the top of the list with a 5.4 degree lead over Sen. Barack Obama.

  • A recent Rasmussen Reports automated national survey asks Americans which party they trust more on five top domestic issues. Democrats hold commanding leads in health care, Social Security, and education. Republicans trail within the margin of error on taxes and abortion.

 

Comments
greg smith:

In my opinion (and I'm sure of yours as well), so much of this is due to (1) current levels of name awareness, and (2) President Bush's current job performance. If you are interested, I just posted an article which partially addresses this topic on the blog site gather.com. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on that article, and look forward to the same with regard to this article.

Greg Smith
President
Greg Smith & Associates
Eagle (Boise), Idaho 83616
gregsm@quik.com
208.921.9458 (cell)

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greg smith:

A quick followon: My previously posted comment only was intended to deal with the Quinnipiac poll, not Scott's (Rasmussen)

Greg Smith
President
Greg Smith & Associates
Eagle (Boise), Idaho 83616
gregsm@quik.com
208.921.9458 (cell)

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

There's the rub regarding 2008. Democrats would no doubt win a generic presidential poll but the individual matchups, particularly among the top tier candidates, favor the Republicans.

You can't persist in forfeiting the likability aspect, I know that much. Not when the three pivotal states tilt slightly against you in partisanship -- Florida, Ohio and Virginia. That's like volunteering a second set of hurdles in your lane only.

I've already seen posts on several progressive sites strategizing to tear down McCain and Guiliani prior to the primaries. I agree with the need, but based on posting on a couple of balanced sites I question how effective it will be. Guiliani, in particular, seems to have a heavy coat of teflon so I'm hardly shocked at his standalone favorable numbers. When I've posted on those sites regarding his marriage troubles, etc., the other posters invariably wave it off as irrelevant.

McCain probably has less enthusiastic support than Guiliani, but higher degree of tolerance from the base and broader range of strengths.

It will be interesting to see if the Democratic party tries to redefine McCain and Guiliani in 2007, a national version of the softening up of Conrad Burns in 2005, even before Montana Democrats knew who their nominee would be. If you leave it to the netroots, or hope the GOP nominee emerges wounded from the primaries, that's very risky strategy. A nominee will receive an automatic bump coming out of a successful battle and anything you try at that point will be considered after the fact piling on, and less effective. The netroots may simply not have enough scope at this point, not unless they uncover damaging goods the mainstream folks can pick up.

I know people will insist Swift Boating worked after the primaries, and that will be the conventional wisdom history of that campaign, but I'll continue to dismiss it. If you check Kerry's favorable numbers they were lame long before Swift Boating began. I remember an early summer PEW survey asking if Kerry's commercials were unfair. The numbers were huge toward the Yes, regardless if people had seen the Kerry commercials frequently, seldom, or not at all. The percentage in each category was the same, and high. That told me Americans simply didn't like the guy.

With Bush there was a more logical breakdown, the people who had seen his commercials frequently thought he was unfair, those who watched commercials occasionally were in the middle, and those not viewing them at all didn't think Bush had attacked unfairly.

Bush won in 2004 due to incumbent status with his party in power one term, and an economy far above reject level. I'd love to see a Twilight Zone version of how that cycle played out if Swift Boating didn't exist. I'd love to wager on any category that meant, "no change."

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