December 29, 2006
Daily Roundup 12.29.06
- New American Research Group statewide surveys testing presidential nominations show Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Democrats in Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and New Hampshire. Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads in Iowa and Nevada, while Sen. John McCain leads in South Carolina and New Hampshire.
- A new AP-AOL national survey testing the biggest heroes and villains of 2006 shows Pres. George W. Bush mentioned most often as both the biggest villain (25%) and the biggest hero (13%).
- The latest WNBC/Marist Poll reveals woman are more likely than men to make a New Years Resolution (44% to 41%) but men are more likely than women to keep it (71% to 57%).
- A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey shows that 71% of Americans will say a prayer on New Year's Eve while 36% will drink alcohol.
By Eric Dienstfrey on December 29, 2006 10:17 AM | Permalink
Comments
I think it's because the r2k poll might have reflected a more accurate sample of caucus goers. Iowa is very challenging to poll, and maybe arg just asked, "Do you plan to go to the caucuses" or "How likely is it you'll participate", whereas
arg might have used lists of previous caucus goers and studied their voting history.
I read that ARG does work for Republican clients. Can anyone confirm?
I think there was an imperative among those who want to see Hillary be the nominee to get a "good" poll result out there to counter the growing wisdom that she may be in trouble.
ARG actually does very little work for candidates, but the firm has worked for both Republicans (Manchester mayor Frank Guinta, former congressman Charlie Bass) and Democrats (former US Senator John Durkin.
The big mystery with ARG is whether Dock Bennett actually polls at all. Nobody I know in NH political circles has ever met a single person who received a call from caller. No one has ever seen Dick Bennett's boiler room. No one has ever seen Bennett's cross tabs. There's something about the whole outfit that doesn't pass the smell test.
Um, isn't it kind of odd that this survey shows Clinton winning Iowa while the R2K survey just two weeks ago shows her fourth with 10%?
Does anyone want to try to explain this?
Posted on December 31, 2006 3:36 PM