Mark Blumenthal | October 18, 2008
Topics: Daily Trackers
We now have all six of today's national daily tracking results, and the trend since Thursday (the last day in which virtually all interviews were completed before Wednesday night's debate) remains mixed. If we treat the Gallup "extended" likely voter model as their number of record, we have four surveys showing slight gains for McCain (Gallup, Daily Kos/Research2000, Diageo/Hotline and Reuters/Zogby), and two showing slight gains for Obama (Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP). The pattern is even less consistent if you choose to Gallup's registered voter model (one-point Obama gain),their "traditional" likely voter model (no change), or focus on all three. Either way, if the debates have caused a significant shift in vote preference, it is not yet big enough to be detected consistently by these tracking surveys.
One interesting change, which may be purely coincidental. Since Thursday, these tracking polls got a little bit more consistent with each other, mostly due to a narrowing Obama margin on the Kos/Research 2000 poll and an expanding Obama margin on the IBD-TIPP poll. Make of this what you will.