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Daily Tracker Update

Topics: Daily Trackers

We now have all six of today's national daily tracking results, and the trend since Thursday (the last day in which virtually all interviews were completed before Wednesday night's debate) remains mixed. If we treat the Gallup "extended" likely voter model as their number of record, we have four surveys showing slight gains for McCain (Gallup, Daily Kos/Research2000, Diageo/Hotline and Reuters/Zogby), and two showing slight gains for Obama (Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP). The pattern is even less consistent if you choose to Gallup's registered voter model (one-point Obama gain),their "traditional" likely voter model (no change), or focus on all three. Either way, if the debates have caused a significant shift in vote preference, it is not yet big enough to be detected consistently by these tracking surveys.

081018 daily2.png

One interesting change, which may be purely coincidental. Since Thursday, these tracking polls got a little bit more consistent with each other, mostly due to a narrowing Obama margin on the Kos/Research 2000 poll and an expanding Obama margin on the IBD-TIPP poll. Make of this what you will.

 

Comments
s.b.:

You might want to note that, TIPP and Battleground are 5 day polls, Battleground covering up to a week because they don't survey on Fri and Sat. To get the market volatility effect out of these polls and have them all be genuinely post debate, aka have them all be post Thursday, you need to wait until next Thursday.

Honestly, you can't really compare three day and 5 day trackers, and battlegrounds is really old all the time except Fri when it catches up and just has the current weeks results.

Overall there has been a tightening of the polls over the last 12 days. We will see if this continues.

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s.b.:

And yes this tightening of the polls is not just McCain vs Obama, but poll vs poll. Everything is tightening as is the common pattern in election years where races are close. They tighten as the election nears.

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DTM:

Just an idle thought, but we seem to have been a little light on non-tracker national polls lately. And although I may be recalling this incorrectly, I thought the current mix of trackers were showing a little smaller margin than the non-trackers (back when the non-trackers were current). So I actually wonder if some of the recent tightening in the national poll aggregations might be attributable to the current relative lack of non-trackers. To put the same point differently, presumably we will be getting a new round of non-trackers at some point in the near future, and it will be interesting to see if that confirms or instead moderates the current tightening trend.

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JFactor:

The non-tracker polls have curiously often showed a wider Obama lead than the trackers. Let's see if that trend continues next week.
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