Mark Blumenthal | October 31, 2008
It is probably premature to start talking about a "widening" of Barack Obama's lead over John McCain, although today's national tracking results certainly produce no evidence of any continuing "narrowing." Of the eight national tracking polls out today, five show slight movement in Obama's direction today, only one in McCain's direction and two show no change in the margin.
While there have been ups and downs, the average Obama lead on the eight daily tracking surveys today (6.3%) is almost exactly what it was (6.4%) on October 20, the day of the first ABC/Washington Post release. The Washington Post's Ben Pershing used a modified version of national trend chart today -- filtered to show just the national trackers -- to make a similar point: "Today's margin [on the trackers] is almost exactly where it was a month ago."
I'm not sure which filter Pershing applied, but the following chart displays the trend line based only on the eight national tracking surveys included in the table above