Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

Daily Tracking Update


Here's a quick update on the daily tracking survey releases: Another day, another picture of trendless noise on the vote preference question on the eight daily tracking surveys. As usual, the result for today on each poll is well within each poll is within sampling. Three show a slight uptick for Obama, two show a slight movement to McCain and three show now change in the margin.


081023 trackers2.png

 

Comments
Andareed:

The image isn't displaying for me :(

____________________

No image. Also what does "As usual, the result for today on each poll is well within each poll is within sampling" mean?

____________________

GoodRiddensW:

Obama -5 in GA! (Ras)

Could it happen by Nov 4? Could SC be the lonely red Atlantic state?

____________________

JamesB27:

Mark,

You are definitely not getting enough sleep.

I have the same problem. I am spending too much time enjoying the polls. It is true that most day to day movement in the tracking polls is sampling error (i.e. statistical noise) but two facts are important:

1. Any reasonable aggregation of the polls buts Obama comfortably ahead.

2. If there is any momentum it is for Obama, not McCain. Every day there is new fire for McCain to worry about -- today it looks like Montana might go for Obama, tomorrow it will be something else.

____________________

Will:

This update is about as intelligible as a Sarah Palin interview. Maybe she needs more sleep too.

Seriously though - Mark, what about the claim by a pollster earlier today that Obama supporters are harder to reach? I can think of a number of reasons why this might happen. If true, this would of course introduce a significant bias in poll numbers against Obama and for McCain. But this seems such an obvious issue. Is it possible that pollsters have often failed to take this possibility into account?

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR