Pollster.com

Instead of all these immaterial states why dont more pollsters poll PA?
AK, OR, KY , CT , NJ...
who cares about polls in these states? Really?

political_junki

They are polling these places for a reason. For senate races

RAS

NH

0-51
M-44

Well, Stevens is on his way out now, and to get rid of Chambliss as well would just be gravy.

Did you look at the senate races? That's what matters. Also GA is O -3...sorry but you're not complaining about anything worth complaining about here.

we had 11 PA Polls the last 5 days .. how many more do you want. AK is big for the senate race.

Actually Georgia is an important state. Did you see the lines of people trying to get into vote today?

GA is almost 10 points closer than the PA average. I was hoping to see a huge boost for Beglich after Ted Stevens was found guilty.

GA is actually within reach.

If the Libertarian is getting 5% in the senate race, I suspect we're headed to a run-off (maybe with the 60th seat held in the balance?)

GOTV will win Georgia. But I think we are headed to a run off.

Obama will not win GA. Chambliss will not lose. Get real.

Well, it's only one poll but this one suddenly has Begich up by 22 and the Dem House candidate in Alaska up by 9. This is a tsunami.

Political junki: Senate races.

Some political junkie you turned out to be...!

Anybody else miss Boomie? :(

@political_junki

In the case of these two states the Senate races are being polled too. Stevens looks like a dead man and Chamblis is in trouble.

gryff :)

Begich-Stevens, 20 point change pre-post Stevens conviction.

Sean Quinn's latest on the campaigns' grand game in battleground states is well worth a look. This is not speculation -- it's direct observation, and if what he found in more than 50 local offices in 11 states is any indication, the nGOTV implications are huge:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/on%20the%20road

(BTW for those who are not sports fans, his "This is the Obama campaign" example photo shows Bob beamon setting a world record in the long jump at the 1968 Olympics, a mark that stood for about 30 years.

Yeah, he is that impressed.)

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html

what kind of political junkie are you?

"BrookLynda:
Political junki: Senate races.

Some political junkie you turned out to be...!"

In GA maybe but in AK did anybody need a poll to know stevens is dead? :-)

Sean Quinn's newest installment ("The Big Empty") in his series at 538 is a must-read for anyone who wants insight in what is actually happening with the ground game of the two campaigns:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html

This is not speculation: it's actual observation of more than 50 offices in 11 battleground states. And if it holds true generally, the GOTV implications are enormous.

I don't think any polling LV scenario accounts for this kind of disparity in enthusiasm and participation.

(BTW for those who are not sports savvy, his "This is the Obama campaign" photo shows Bob Beamon at the 1968 Olympics setting a world record in the long jump... a record that stood for 30 years.

(Yeah, he is that impressed).

@RaleighNC:
"Obama will not win GA. Chambliss will not lose. Get real."

I live in GA and I see the Senate race going to a run-off. And run-offs in GA favor the challenger. I also think that based on the early voting, McCain has a problem in GA. He better hope there is a big wave of votes for him on the 4th, otherwise, GA and it's lovely 15 EVs will belong to Obama.

I want to give a shout out of support to political_junki.

On a related topic, isn't it amazing what a simple jury conviction will do to a race? In a first poll since the trial ended, Begich has opened a nearly 20 pt lead from what used to be a dead heat. (by Sunday).

I also have my doubts that GA will go blue.. but the fact it's even making McCain sweat is stunning.

@ Trosen

Thanks for the link. It makes me feel much better :)

@RaleighNC:

Bald assertion isn't really an adequate substitute for thought or facts.

Here are a couple of facts:
This poll assumes a 27% AA share of the vote. Over 1.7 million people have already voted, more than half the 2004 turnout, and over 35% of them are black. That means that, at 2004 turnout levels, Obama will exceed that 27% even if the Election Day turnout is only 19% black, a very modest figure.

Of course, the pecentages change if the polls are swamped by hundreds of thousands of new voters, but I don't think that's what the GOP wants, do you?

I miss Boomshak. I was hoping somebody could "dress up" like Boomie here at Pollster for Halloween and scare us all.

He could be our....Pollstergeist!

How would this be for a November surprise? Stevens withdraws his name from nomination, Palin takes his place and withdraws from the VP spot, Tom Ridge takes her spot on the ticket.

Boy, I'm really losing it. Can we hold this friggin' election already!!

@TeaLeaf96:

"How would this be for a November surprise? Stevens withdraws his name from nomination, Palin takes his place and withdraws from the VP spot, Tom Ridge takes her spot on the ticket."

Might have worked a week or so ago. Now I think the election is pretty much set.

Obama will win GA because of BIG MO the ground game. Nearly half way there.

!!!!!! BOOMSHACK, Are you coming back?

boomshack:
I want to give a shout out of support to political_junki.

On a related topic, isn't it amazing what a simple jury conviction will do to a race? In a first poll since the trial ended, Begich has opened a nearly 20 pt lead from what used to be a dead heat. (by Sunday).

Posted on October 31, 2008 3:32 PM

GOTV can take out Chambliss.

BrookLynda - you wound me with that pun. Good one.

PoliticalJunkie - EVERY state and EVERY voter is important.

Boomshak is back, a last minute repreive from the Governor?

People, This is Boomshack with a "c". Different from Boomshak.

Woah, look at Georgia. This is getting nuts.

"Tea Leaf:How would this be for a November surprise? Stevens withdraws his name from nomination, Palin takes his place and withdraws from the VP spot, Tom Ridge takes her spot on the ticket."

You mean like a write-in up in Alaska! Yeah I'm all for it! Do it Sarah!

JCK:
People, This is Boomshack with a "c". Different from Boomshak.

---

thank god, I was looking around for my garlic.

It is actually important for Dems for Begich to defeat Stevens in Alaska. If Stevens were to win, he would have to resign (or be expelled from the Senate) and a special election would be held. A different Republican, like Gov. Palin for example, could run for his seat. I would not want to predict the outcome of a Begich-Palin election! (Based on a preponderance of evidence I believe that Gov. Palin will NOT be elected as the next VP.)

If Begich wins he holds the seat for the full 6 year term.

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!!!

Larry Sabato, the election guru:

"Sabato Predicts Virginia Will Vote Democrat"

http://www.nbc29.com/Global/story.asp?S=9274556&nav=menu496_2_1

The fact that Sabato thinks that Virginia will go for Obama is big, HUGE indeed. He is not only a well-known political science Prof. but he is also a resident of Virginia.

During this election is has being very, very skeptical of Obama's chances in VA; however, he better than anybody can see the reality in his state, from his political expertise + his own experience as a long-time resident of the state. I think this is fantastic :-)

not sure i buy the "southernmost northern state" nonsense, though i love that fact it's going blue.

Something is happening in Ga....

http://projects.ajc.com/gallery/view/metro/early-voting-1029/2.html

I am in Georgia working for Obama. McCain's 3% advantage here is within the margin of error. Given the enormous black turnout and nonstop GOTV efforts at the Obama headquarters, I think Obama has a good chance of winning GA. At least we have forced McCain to spend money here in the last few weeks on advertising.

Regarding Chambliss vrs Martin, note that in Georgia you have to win 50% plus 1 vote. They are headed for a runoff:

Chambliss (R) 47 (47)
Martin (D) 46 (45)
Buckley (L) 5 (5)

If Obama wins, he will reportedly come to Georgia to campaign for Martin, and in that case Martin will almost certainly win. As the Atlanta Journal put it, the black community is not thrilled by Martin, but they will walk through coals for Obama. Black RV are 29% of the total in Georgia but so far they are casting 35% of votes in early voting. See:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

If this keeps up, or if black voters cast ~32% of votes, Obama may win.

So far young voters have not come out in large numbers, which does not bode well for Obama.

Today is the last day for early voting in Georgia.

Early voting has been an outrage in Georgia this year, especially in minority communities, with waits sometimes ranging from 2 hours to 12 hours. Many people have given up and gone home. The Republican in charge of the elections, Karen Handel, dismisses the problem and has not lifted a finger to help. This leads many black voters -- and me -- to suspect this is a deliberate effort to suppress the vote.

I would not trust the Georgia results in any case, because the voting machines are the Diebold models, which might as well have been custom designed to steal elections. There are probably thousands of programmers who know how to write a simple virus for these machines that will steal the election and leave no trace of its activity. See this video demonstration from Princeton U. computer science dept:

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/gadgets/how-to-steal-an-election-with-a-diebold-machine-200693.php

The problem could easily be fixed by having the machines print a paper copy of the ballots cast, and doing random audits to compare the paper ballots to the computer data. Every Diebold voting machine is equipped with printers and paper tapes, so this would be a trivial change. However the company says it would cost $700 per machine and it would take years, and Handel and the other Republicans express no interest in making the change.

The company (now independent of Diebold) is run by a big-gun Republican. I suspect he did, in fact, engineer the machines to steal elections, because Diebold's other machines such as their ATMs could not be hacked by anyone less skilled than the CIA, whereas any undergrad computer science major could make mincemeat out these voting machines. Anyone can physically break into one with a screwdriver in 5 minutes, and once you are in you can program any change you like in a few seconds, leaving absolutely no trace. You need only add a self-erasing virus to one machine; it will quickly spread to all of the other machines in the precinct, as shown in the Princeton U. video.

Re: Georgia Senate Race

As an original Gawgan (though I've always thought it should be Jawjan) do not hold your breath for a Martin victory. That is, unless he wins on Tuesday. If there is a run-off, expect three considerations:
a) Barr votes will probably go Chambliss
b) Despite having Obama campaign in the state, I wouldn't expect a large AA turnout for Martin.
c) If the Dems gain 57-59 Senate seats (not counting the two indies) there will be a big Georgia backlash against letting the Dems have complete control of the Senate, House and Presidency.

I kind of think Obama will win Georgia by a thin Margin! I know Conservatives are bullish on Georgia but its a new day. Not for Liberals or Conservatives but for Americans.

Radmod wrote:

"b) Despite having Obama campaign in the state, I wouldn't expect a large AA turnout for Martin."

I would. As I noted above, the Atlanta Journal reported that if Obama wins, he will come to Georgia to campaign for Martin. If he does that, the AA enthusiasm will be sky high and turnout for the runoff will be tremendous. The Republicans will be pretty discouraged, too. Frankly, I would expect Martin to win in a walk.

I do not think Obama will win in Georgia, but he will come close. I predict it will be within 3%.

Another funny cartoon at the Reasons To Be Cheerful, Part 3 blog: "Alaska: State of Denial."