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DailyKos: WY, MN, KY, OR (10/27-29)

Topics: PHome

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
10/27-29/08; 600 LV, 4.%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Wyoming
McCain 61, Obama 36
Sen-A: Enzi (R-i) 62, Rothfuss (D) 35
Sen-B: Barasso (R-i) 60, Carter (D) 35
At-Large: Lummis (R) 49, Trauner (D) 45

Minnesota
Obama 53, McCain 38
Sen: Coleman (R-i) 43, Franken (D) 40, Barkley (I) 15

Kentucky
McCain 56, Obama 39
Sen: McConnell (R-i) 47, Lunsford (D) 44

Oregon
Obama 55, McCain 39
Sen: Merkley (D) 48, Smith (R-i) 42

 

Comments
OneAngryDwarf:

Firstish...

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falcon79:

what is up with these hicks in Wyoming?
get with the program and vote for Obama already :D

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KMartDad08:

Good numbers for Merkley. We need that seat.

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Basil:

But bad for Franken...

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mirrorball:

The Minn. Senate race is very confusing. Seems like the polls the past week are almost evening split -- some with Franken up a couple of points and some with Coleman up.

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laguna_b:

If the tidal wave comes swamping the Reps......Mn. will go Franken!

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piratebay:

Is this Obama aunt story a legitimate concern? Will this be a big story?

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Thatcher:

@piratebay -

The story came out late Friday night ... it will be tough for this story to get traction and for all the facts to come out before the polls close on Tuesday. Will it even break through the coverage of early voting ... landslide/squeaker/upset analysis, etc ...

We don't know if Obama knew or not ... or all the details. And the story was broken by the AP with an unnamed source ... While I tend to think this story is true ... Unless they can get documentation by Monday AM from that source - they will have to wait until Monday to confirm this ...

This is similar timeline as when the Bush DUI report came out in 2000. Whereas that HAD truth behind it - it came out too late to do anything.

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AdamSC:

Besides, who cares if she was illegal immigrant or not? Pffft. The AP tried to see who released these records but couldn't find out. Probably someone in the Bush Administration or McCain Campaign.

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Basil:

It's reportedly a half-aunt on Obama's father's side. Of my seven whole aunts, I was close to one of them. If someone were to suggest that I was responsible in some way for the well being of one of my father's half-sisters after I had been abandoned by my father as a child, I would wonder why.

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gjdodger:

I don't like it. If this was a really close election, I would think it would make a difference. I think a lot depends on what the whole story is, and whether Obama can successfully portray her as a victim. You can bet McCain and Palin will make hay with it, and illegal immigration is not only an issue with the Republican base.

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Marcus:

THANK YOU DRUDGE REPORT !

any headline suggestion implying that this is really a tossup election like this Zogby McCain +1 crap in a single day polling of a very flawed tracker just insures that Dem turnout will be HUGE. So he might think he helps McCain by suggesting a close race but in reality it just keeps Dems fired up and not too self assured to stay home on Nov 4th. All the Date shows this a 5-7 pts election which is landsliede terrain and if the turnout trends continue it might even be larger than that.

THANKS DRUDGE !

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Huskert-SD:

Not to be a downer...but...it's 2:30 in the morning, and I can't sleep a wink. I believe this just cost Obama the election.

I don't think CNN and even FoxNews know what to do with the story yet. On Yahoo, where they have it posted? It's already the most popular story.

This election has just become an election about race, and illegal immigration. This has just given the closet bigots (and people who are only bigoted) a reason to vote against Obama.

Not enough time to get traction? No, unfortunatley the timing is PERFECT for McCain/Palin. And I doubt that's a coincidence. The timing is such that this story will dominate through the weekend and right up to the election.

The only hope from my standpoint...Obama's response. I hope to god this is some estranged aunt that he never communicated with. Otherwise, I think it may be lights out.

Don't believe me? Check out the venom and hatred on some of the sites where the story is posted. "Send 'em all back to Kenya!!" is a typicaly line.

God help us all if THIS costs Obama the election, because the aftermath won't be pretty.

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political_junki:

Huskert-SD:
Take it easy dude. It will have no traction, mark my words.
Obama will win.
Take a couple of Jack Danielle shots and go to bed. Sleep tight :)

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Huskert-SD:

Political_junki:

You greatly underestimate the inherent bigotry of the U.S. population. That element of the population will latch on to this like nobody's business.

Check out Yahoo's most popular stories. Took about 5 minutes for this to shoot to the top.

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Gary Kilbride:

My instinct is Coleman is ahead. I always believe the candidate who led early and for the majority of the race has foundational support and is eligible for late recoil.

Now I'll root to be wrong.

I've been surprised Franken hasn't used humor more effectively. I saw it in one debate, when he said his commercials were a depiction of Coleman's performance in the senate, so naturally they're negative. Otherwise he seems overly slow speaking and mostly bland.

The aunt story will occupy Fox and right wing message boards but doesn't have potential to alter the result. Think big picture.

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political_junki:

Huskert-SD:
"Check out the venom and hatred on some of the sites where the story is posted. "Send 'em all back to Kenya!!" is a typicaly line."

I hope they propagate this nonsense as much as they can. This actually helps Obama with indipendents.

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Marcus:

@ Huskert-SD


this cost Obama the election ? Are you joking ? Get some sleep please.

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political_junki:

Huskert-SD:
"Check out Yahoo's most popular stories. Took about 5 minutes for this to shoot to the top.

I believe this may make some Anti-Obama people firmer in their opposition but it wont sway anyone from voting for Obama.

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Huskert-SD:

Big picture is you had very low motivation for much of the conservative right to vote in this election. This just gave them that motivation.

Should be interesting how both campaigns handle this.

Note...HALF AN HOUR before this story broke, the lead story on FoxNews about this campaign? "Palin hits on illegal immigration in Pennsylvania"

Think that's a coincidence?

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political_junki:

"The aunt story will occupy Fox and right wing message boards but doesn't have potential to alter the result. Think big picture."

The next 3 days, both candidates will talk about economy ONLY and maybe some national security. This aunt story may circulate in some right wing freak forums but they wouldnt vote for the bigO anyway.

Right now my only concern is over confidence of Obama campaign in PA. But then again they have run a flawless campaign, they know their stuff (Fingers crossed)

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Huskert-SD:

They will talk about the economy "only"?

You really think McCain/Palin will ignore this, when they've brought up Ayers and every other person Obama has come within 100 miles of?

I hope to god you're right. But even if I weren't so cynical and pessimistic (what can I say, I'm a democrat), this is something to really worry about until we hear Obama's real relationship to her.

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merveilleux:

I'm sure McCain/Palin will mention it, but the thing is that nobody CARES. Illegal immigration is so far down on public opinion polls of most important issues. It's just another loose attempt at a connection to wrongdoing, like Ayers and Wright and Khalidi. The only people who'll be swayed by it wouldn't vote for Obama in the first place.

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johncoz:

@Huskert-SD

This story will get traction with "Obama is a Muslim Socialist" brigade. To people who are concerned about their country and its future, it just looks like another page out of the Rove-GOP dirty tricks manual.

Net effect = zero

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Mort:

Is anyone aware of a key difference in sampling between some polls indicating Coleman is ahead while others have Franken ahead?

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AdamSC:

Husker, seriously dude. Take a chill pill. If this is the 'October surprise' everybody is so antsy about then be more relieved than anything.

This story is a blip of the radar, it's there and it's gone. Heading into the weekend, it won't be discussed by any major talking heads so they can spin it.

It's more likely something in the next two days will dominate Monday-Tuesday coverage. Probably more about how the race is 'tightening' in these national polls.

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Basil:

Huskert

junki's right that the more vitriolic the protest, the less the overall impact. Are the R's into this because Obama's not taking care of his aunt or that he's improperly helping her hang out in the US?

Gary

I couldn't agree more about Franken. His persona doesn't seem authentic now. Who says Senators can't be comedians?

One look at McCain and Obama at the Al Smith dinner tells you what a real Franken candidacy might have looked like. Nobody thinks that because they were both destroying the audience that they had forfeited the ability to be serious when they wanted.

Franken could have done two or three gigs a week like that, be serious the rest of the time, and get continuous media attention for the zingers.

Incidentally, I think I know who thought up the joke Obama told about the push-pollster calling people and asking "How would you feel if you knew Obama had two black children born in wedlock?" (It wasn't me) But I posted it on this site not long before the Al Smith dinner. So it's possible Obama's writer picked it up here--or that the guy I thought had invented it just heard it from someone else.

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Mister H.:

I guess I'm kind of confused as to how this would reflect poorly on Obama.

It's a half-aunt, so it isn't even his father's full sister. Plus, while she is mentioned in his book, she is never credited for having a personal impact on him.

So I guess the question is this:

If the story said that it was a "non-criminal" issue, then where is the crime? I believe the worst that can happen is a deportation.

Secondly, if the Repubs really wanted to use this for political gain, then why did the Bush administration purposely SUSPEND deportation matters until after the election, as it's guessed they did so for sensitivity issues so close to the election?

Thirdly, what would Obama have done wrong? The only thing that I can imagine is that he somehow helped her stay....but I just don't know that's even true.

And lastly....wouldn't it make sense that this person and her situation had come up in the vetting process?? After all, her process was lost in 2004...four years ago. A candidate's family is investigated 100%...and it isn't like she was hidden since she was in the book.

I'll admit that I'm a little nervous....but unless Obama did something to break the law or purposely impede justice, I'm not sure that it goes down as a relationship any worse that William Ayres or Khalidi.

Thoughts?

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zen:

@Huskert-SD,

Are you really an Obama supporter?
Your worry or concern doesn't look genuine.

My gut feeling says this aunt story won't make any difference among obama supporters, it will just give false hope to Maccain supporters.

Unless obama himself makes a big gaffe until election day, nothing will change the current... Obama landslide.

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This is just another scare and fear mongering tactic by McCain and Palin. They don't want to talk about real issues such as economics, health care, education, keeping jobs here in the U.S., balancing the budget, or ending the war in Iraq.

I have not heard a word in the mainstream media about the fact that Palin was the director of a a 527 political group organized by the now convicted U.S. Senator from Alaska, Ted Stevens. I don't trust McCain and Palin.

The Republicans are the party of slash and burn politics. The only way to put their fire out is to get to the polls and vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden!

Keep dreaming, you bastardly Republicans, were GOING TO WIN!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN ON NOVEMBER 4TH!

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johncoz:

This silly discussion about Obama's half aunt made me think, for some reason, of Peggy Noonan's recent piece:

"A great moment: When the press was hitting hard on the pregnancy of Sarah Palin’s 17-year-old daughter, he did not respond with a politically shrewd “I have no comment,” or “We shouldn’t judge.” Instead he said, “My mother had me when she was 18,” which shamed the press and others into silence. He showed grace when he didn’t have to."

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PJ_FFM:

Don't get me wrong, folks, but as a sceptical German I'll only believe Obama has won when there can't be any legal challenges any more and he has a plurality of votes in Ohio and/or Virginia... I like the numbers from Gallup, I like the state polls, but the "undecideds" and a certain illogical, erratic tendency in the American voter sents shivers of fear down my spine, because a vice president PALIN is still a possibility - and thus a potential waymark on the road to Armagheddon should a president McCain die...

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johncoz:

@PJ_FFM

Sure, skepticism is amply justified by the record and rapacity of the GOP machine. But to quote Peggy Noonan again:

"But let’s be frank. Something new is happening in America. It is the imminent arrival of a new liberal moment. History happens, it makes its turns, you hold on for dear life. Life moves."

If the silvery pen of Reagan's speech-writer can say, we can perhaps begin to believe it.

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johncoz:

@PJ_FFM

Sure, skepticism is amply justified by the record and rapacity of the GOP machine. But to quote Peggy Noonan again:

"But let’s be frank. Something new is happening in America. It is the imminent arrival of a new liberal moment. History happens, it makes its turns, you hold on for dear life. Life moves."

If the silvery pen of Reagan's speech-writer can say it, we can perhaps begin to believe it.

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maddiekat:

I sure hope McCain and Palin use this story. Although it would be hard to make them look more petty then they have been using this story would certainly have that result. Also where are Palins medical records? I for one would like to know how many children she has really had.

Zogby is just being Zogby!

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Jeff:

Anyone who is going to vote based on the fact Obama has a black Aunt (which let's be honest, is the real point of this story) was firmly in the McCain/Palin camp anyway. Doesn't change a thing.

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Mike In Maryland:

Huskert-SD id a concern troll.

Evidence?

Reference to Faux News.

"Check out the venom and hatred on some of the sites where the story is posted. "Send 'em all back to Kenya!!" is a typicaly line." Huskert-SD? Since Lou-lou Dobbs isn't on right now, did you go to [Anti]Free Republic to get those quotes?

"But even if I weren't so cynical and pessimistic (what can I say, I'm a democrat), this is something to really worry about until we hear Obama's real relationship to her." Does this sound like a RATIONAL person who is concerned with Democratic candidates winning?

CONCERN TROLL is written all over this.

Do
Not
Feed
The
Trolls

DNFTT

And maddiekat - I agree. Let McPhailin try to use this wedge issue. I think Senator Obama's campaign has a response to this issue IF NEEDED that will shut down most of the intelligent press from even hinting at it any more.

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merveilleux:

I understand why you guys are on edge, but I think you overestimate the attention span of the average American voter. I was lamenting the Ayers thing a few weeks back after a work conference and nobody knew who he was, let alone what he had to do with Obama. None of my friends have ever heard of Khalidi. The only thing anybody I know knew about was Rev. Wright, but even then only on a vague level. Let's face it; most voters don't refresh Pollster.com every 15 minutes or set MSNBC on their home page, let alone watch Hardball or Larry King instead of CSI and Dancing with the Stars. O'Reilly, for all of his influence, regularly duels with Spongebob Squarepants in the ratings. Between the disconnect and how sick people are of this election, the vast majority of the people who vote on the 4th won't know a thing about Obama's aunt. Some of them aren't listening anymore, and some of them never were.

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Vokoban:

This aunt-story is surreal and bizarre. Calling it stupid would be more than it deserved.

Adults are responsible for their kids - and maybe for the kids of their siblings - or for kids to whom they are godparents.

Adults are partly responsible for their siblings, but quite surely not their cousins - or only in very special cases.

Kids are responsible for their parents, if these are old and the kids have the ability to help them AFTER they fulfilled their responsibilities to their kids.

Someone being responsible for the well-being of an aunt, a half sister of the father, is unheard of.

Whoever starts a blame game here has to answer the question;: when did you help your distant half-aunt the last time.

The whole case beyond ridiculous and will find no traction.

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JMOfl:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5042571.ece

Check this out, it says she donated over $250 to Obama's campaign. That could be an issue because she is not a legal immigrant, therefore barred from making donations to presidential campaigns, but maybe she contributed through a PAC - anyone know the rules on that?

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maddiekat:

JMOfl

Like McCain did with hundreds of thousands of dollars Obama can return the $250.00.

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johncoz:

@JMOfl

Who cares?!

The entire nation is going to the dogs, and we should worry about a $260 donation. Beyond desperate.

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jeric:

I'm only concerned about this story because, just like the Bush DUI story from 2000, it comes out just before the election before anyone has time to adequately parse it. However, the Bush story was effective because it went against the narrative that he was a reborn Christian and depressed turnout in the evangelical base.

This story isn't really relevant to Obama's narrative, and if it is it'll do more to support his narrative of being the child of immigrants. Either way it won't affect his base the same way the DUI story did. And, most importantly, it can't affect his support among people who have already voted, which is a sizable portion of registered voters in the states Obama needs to win. This story honestly concerns me a lot less than a lot of other things that could swing the election back to McCain.

As for Zogby... seriously, it's Zogby. I'll get nervous if a second pollster has the same results.

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maddiekat:

From the Boston Globe yesterday..For 3 years Obama's Aunt was a volunteer with Experience Corp a non profit that trains adults to work with children in Public Schools. On Experience Corps website she is descibed as a former computer coordinator who wanted to volunteer with children in schools to give back to her community.

Good luck with this one McCain / Palin / GOP. I think they just stepped in it again!

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maddiekat:

Daily Kos

O 51 M 44
Last night O +9

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johncoz:

It would appear Pollster isn't getting out of bed anytime soon, so my summary from yesterday:

The week ended with Obama's support adding a little more padding, as the graph of the weighted averages for the 3-day trackers shows:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3055/2990582403_55046f29df_b.jpg

Comparing this weighted average with the weighted average for all yesterday's polls:

3-day trackers: O 50.8/ M 44.8/ Other & Undecided 4.5
All national polls: O 50.3 / M 44.2/ Other & Undecided 5.5

I seems almost redundant to say that this looks like curtains for McCain. It's not just the numbers that are bad, but the trend is in the wrong direction, the Zogby/Drudge stunt notwithstanding.

btw, it is noteworthy that Drudge, in quoting Zogby, left off the butt-covering bookends: "Is McCain making a move? ... But for now, hold on."

For anyone with lingering concerns about Zogby/Drudge, check out:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html

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Dewey1858:

I think Drudge also originally left out the fact that the three-day margin didn't change. He had to put it in there when it became apparent he'd look silly when it didn't move despite his huge headline. I still don't get why it doesn't perturb Zogby to be a bit player in someone's else's circus act.

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mago:

This must be terribly frustrating for McCain's true believers. Every single day they have a new bombshell, leaked through on of their organs (Fox News, Drudge, AP) which they think will blow the election wide open and cause people to see Obama for the evil bastard he is.

And every day the previous day's bombshell is forgotten...you'd think they would just get disillusioned with the whole thing and become a bit skeptical.

People believed the Swift Boat lies about Kerry because they were looking for an excuse to give Bush another chance. People are not looking for a reason to abandon Obama, so slime doesn't stick.

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carl29:

JMOfl,

I think that they said that she was fighting asylum. I think that when you ask for asylum you have some sort of "legal status" during the time you are in process.

*I think that the story of the aunt will be a PLUS with Hispanics :-) I am a latina myself and I said, Jesus so much in his life is just like ours!!!

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maddiekat:

The headline for the Daily Kos Poll is wrong. it is 51-44 and O polled plus 9 last night.

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Marcus:

@ Pollster

why the hell do you include that Zogby line of "McCain outpolled Obama on Friday" on your news screenwhen its such an obviously biased Rep Pollster who just wants attention. VERY dissapointing. You guys are better than that.

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MDB1974:

PA is closing. Makes me nervous!

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merveilleux:

@ Marcus

I don't know much about Pollster's bias/non-bias, but to me it read as "we're distinguishing the difference here" rather than "PS Obama's in trouble."

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sunnymi:


"Calm down MDB1974 and others."
Obama is still above 50 in PA..McPalin are literally living in that state margins were bound to tighten.

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carl29:

MDB1974,

Obama support is staying around the same 52% right now. I've said it all along: Pay attention to Obama level of support, not the spread. All those "undecided" will defenitely go for McCain, which is exactly what you are seeing.

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Marcus:

They never include single day polling bacuse a 350 sample is well irrelavant with a moe of about 8-10 on national polls. Its just an attention seeker and nothing else.Why buy into that Drudge headlining of a single days poll ?

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merveilleux:

Where's the PA poll we're worrying about?

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Marcus:

btw Pollster its 51-44 on DKos not 51-45.

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mysticlaker:

This RAS +4 in PA is the exact same thing he did with NH last week. He throws a bone to the repubs to give them some false hope.

He is really pretty predictable.

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BUS:

Chill - he's got this:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/if_its_all_about_pennsylvania.php

If it's All About Pennsylvania....

Then the Obama campaign is betraying a certain confidence.

At this point, there are no plans for Sen. Obama to visit the state between now and Tuesday.

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carl29:

My gut feeling tells me that on election day, McCain will get his highest watermark in all election season in PA: 47%, which makes perfect sense with my "prediction" that Obama will get around 53% of the vote.

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Cho:

@marcus: i dont think pollster.com is responsible for that newsscreen, its from politicshome.com

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Jimbo77:

Zogby has it a 5 point race. This is from his web sight

Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

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Jimbo77:

Note that McCain out polled Obama yesterday.

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merveilleux:

He outpolled him in one specific one-day poll, Jimbo.

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superknower:

No surprise here. Useless poll.

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FL_Obama:

Go Vote than volunteer for Obama

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sunnymi:


On the daily tracker in PA, Obama has remained at 50 or above for over weeks now and 52 or better for 2 weeks now....the only tightening you are seeing there is because McCain is getting some of the undecideds.

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Dewey1858:

Nate actually addressed the Zogby poll on 538.

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Jimbo77:

Thats what I wrote.

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straight talk:

Boy I wish the OBama supporters would have just a little confidence! PA is going to be fun and a runaway win for OBama 10+.

Since no there is no early voting in PA, it is all about the GOTV! Evidence shows us as of today that Obama is crushing him in that fact alone!

If Obama is not worried, than you shouldn't be neither!

It is all about the Ground Game!

In the polls OBama is winning, and on the Ground he is driving new voters to the polls!

Remember McCain has to carry 25% of Dems to Carry PA! GOOD LUUCK!

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superknower:

RCP has AZ as a toss-up now. How funny is that ?

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Marcus:

@ Jimbo77

please ready 538.coms analysis of Zogby. They almost have the same amount of Rep and Dem in party ID and have such high volatility ion their one day polls that it really seems obvious all he wants is attention and he surely gets it as his numbers are "leaked" to Hannity, Drudge whenever it contains a bit of good news for McCain. He cannot and should not be considered a serious pollster. I said the same thing when Obama was up 10+ there.

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Dewey1858:

@sunnymi:

On the daily tracker in PA, Obama has remained at 50 or above for over weeks now and 52 or better for 2 weeks now....the only tightening you are seeing there is because McCain is getting some of the undecideds.

That is reflected in the Morning Call tracker this morning, where Obama's lead is under double digits at 8, but his own number remains steady at 52. GOTV is a huge factor in Obama's favor in PA, IMO.

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carl29:

I have this feeling about Zogby: I think he responds more to his gut feelings than real events on the ground. He is looking around and seeing what other pollsters are doing, remember that in CA he was the joke of all networks. Notice that he is trying to stay with the most Republican leaning pollsters, National IBD/TIPP with by Obama +4 and Rasmussen with Obama by +4.

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sunnymi:

@straighttalk, you said "Remember McCain has to carry 25% of Dems to Carry PA! GOOD LUUCK!"

Well said! and the funny thing is Ras Obama getting only 75% of the Dems in his latest poll and still he is ahead by 4.

Another important point to note here is this:
The McCain campaign is waging an all-in battle in PA....If Obama wins NM, CO, NV and VA even in an unlikely scenario of losing PA he still gets to 270 and remember this is without FL, OH and NC.

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Vercingetorix:

The MOE on one day of polling is at least +/- 4 points for each candidate. So a +1 spread for McCain is still consistent with an Obama lead of 5 or 6 points.

Rasmussen had a similar day of polling a few days ago. It pushed the three-day averages down for a few days and then disappeared. Watch for the same thing to happen when yesterday's polling drops out on Monday night.

The difference is that Rasmussen didn't trumpet one day's result around the internet as if it was significant.

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sunnymi:

Here are some internals from Rasmussen's latest PA poll: (cross-posting)

While Ras PA went from +7 to +4,

Obama's white support actually ticked UP 1.
AA vote now at 80-20 from 93-5.

So basically the drop in numbers is due to AA number..hahaha

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Paul:

While we are waiting on national poll threads to appear on pollster.com today, here are the Zogby internals of note for Saturday Nov. 1 compared to Zogby internals for Oct. 31 in parentheses.

Overall:
Obama 49.1 (50.1), McCain 44.1 (43.1)

Region:
East Obama 58.1 (59.3), McCain 38.5 (36.7)
South Obama 47.3 (43.9), McCain 45.4 (46.6)
Central Obama 39.7 (44.8), McCain 50.4 (46.0)
West Obama 55.7 (55.6), McCain 39.2 (41.2)

Gender:
Males Obama 49.8 (48.8), McCain 43.7 (43.7)
Females Obama 48.5 (51.3), McCain 44.6 (42.4)

Party - Democrats
Obama 87.2 (85.9), McCain 8.5 (9.8)

Party - Republicans
Obama 10.9 (12.4), McCain 85.0 (83.8)

Party - Independents
Obama 46.3 (50.0), McCain 39.6 (35.2)

Already Voted:
Obama 55.0 (53.8), McCain 39.8 (41.4)

Race:
Whites Obama 39.7 (40.7) , McCain 53.3 (51.8)
Hisp Obama 67.9 (70.8), McCain 26.0 (25.9)
AA Obama 94.0 (94.8), McCain 3.5 (2.4)

Moderates:
Obama 64.9 (64.2), McCain 28.9 (28.2)

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Dewey1858:

@sunnymi:
@straighttalk, you said "Remember McCain has to carry 25% of Dems to Carry PA! GOOD LUUCK!"

Well said! and the funny thing is Ras Obama getting only 75% of the Dems in his latest poll and still he is ahead by 4.

Another important point to note here is this:
The McCain campaign is waging an all-in battle in PA....If Obama wins NM, CO, NV and VA even in an unlikely scenario of losing PA he still gets to 270 and remember this is without FL, OH and NC.

While I can appreciate these big-picture analyses, I will be bummed as a Pennsylvanian if McCain wins this state. I don't think it's going to happen, though - too much pent up frustration with Republicans and to many new Dems that will be personally woken up Tuesday and driven to the polls.

____________________

merveilleux:

Do you think Rendell is saying it's closer than it appears to increase turnout or because of genuine concern?

____________________

tjampel:

the ticker's wrong for daily Kos; it's 51-44 for Obama, with a +9 in yesterday's interviews. The last pre-infomercial result (Obama +5) is set to roll off tomorrow so expect +8 if Obama gets a 6 or higher (his last two days were +8 and +9, respectively

____________________

straight talk:

@EVeryone

Do you think McCain have a GOTV team that can get his people to the POlls in PA! AS of today in all of the battleground states Dems are outvoting repubs tremendously! And do not forget that some independents have voted to so he gots probably half of those!

Remeber in O4 kerry RCP avg. in PA 0.4 or 5, but he ended up +3. Obama is plus 8+!

____________________

ThisLandIsMyLand:

Zogby is a pathetic news wh*re. He has one volatile outlier day of polling and he holds a frickin' press conference. He is a joke of statistician.

____________________

sunnymi:


@Paul:

Thanks for the Zogby internals

1. He has Obama doing better among Men than Women.

2. He has McCain winning the Central (MidWest I guess!) by over 10 points and Obama winning the South.

HaHaHa....

____________________

SoloBJ:

So Obama is now only +4 in RAS' PA poll after being up +7 earlier in the week? I don't know how you guys can't be concerned about that. That is a total of 4 polls now showing the lead down to +4-8 points with 3 of the 4 only showing +4-5 points in PA.

Remember, it was only a week ago when Obama had a DOUBLE DIGIT lead in PA and McCain has made plenty of headway there. Not to mention Palin and him will be making 4 more stops there between today and Tuesday.

I've been encouraging everyone I know to vote and as someone said yesterday, this election means so much to me but I'm beginning to think it's going to be stolen.

____________________

carl29:

I think that Zogby is the most nervious pollster this election cycle, although all of them are I guess, because of the CA debacle. He even stopped polling for a while. I think that he doesn't want to mess up and that's why he is staying with the most Republican friendly crowd of pollsters (look at Charles Franklin column about trackings and house effect).

/blogs/trackers_and_house_effects.html

Zogby is just alining himself with those pollsters in order to say: OH...the turnout was so HUGE that no one could have seen it coming. He is just staying on the safe side :-)

____________________

whoshotsam:

Ras PA poll has McCain taking 20% of the AA vote, up from 7% in his previous poll. +1 gain for Obama among whites. WTF?

____________________

straight talk:

@Obama supporters

The Obama Campaign is not worried about PA! My sleeper steal on election night is: Texas!
There is really not much polling, but the last rass had O down by 9.

These Obama supporters are gettin out and voting down here! NOw I was at the polling site yesterday where for first time in a long time I cast my ballot for the Democrat ( Barack Obama)! His supporters were at the polls working! Where was the McCain supporters? M.I.A. The South is not safe for the M Camp, the AA turnout his far higher than anyone could have expected!

OBAMA STEALS TEXAS ON ELECTION NIGHT!

____________________

Angus Mc:

Daily Presidential tracker for PA dropped from O+13 to O+8 today. This is a 5 day tracker with some huge Obama days still in it, so the last couple days have likely been about O+2. Someone with a source at SUSA said they started a three day poll of PA yesterday, and the results were horrible for Obama. I'm really getting worried now.

____________________

sunnymi:


Come on @SoloBJ

Look at the big picture....Obama has been above 50 in both Rasmussen and Gallup for over a month now..the fluctuations that you see during a week are nothing but noise.

A +4 win on Popular Vote will be no less than 300 EVs..so just relax, let us all vote and get this thing done.

Look at this data from Gallup to see how steady the race has been for 3 weeks now:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109687/Candidate-Support.aspx
(or)
This one from Rasmussen:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

Regarding PA look at my previous posts..the drop from +7 to +4 was because AA support in this poll is only 80-20..Would you believe it?

____________________

carl29:

SoloBJ,

You are so, so, so obsessed with the SPREAD. The spread doesn't mean a thing. Do you really believe that those UNDECIDED are thinking about voting for Obama? C'mon get serious :-) Those people are for McCain all the way but don't say it.

I don't pay attention to the spread because I assume that those are McCain supportes. If Obama remains above 50% he is just fine!!!!

____________________

Observer:

Is something happening in Pennslyvania? The Morning Call Tracker is a 5 day tracker and has gone from O +13 to O +8 in two days. Two good days for McCain which will stay in the figures for another 3 and 4 days. Expect this poll to tighten further, especially if McCain gets the same sort of weekend boost he received last weekend.

____________________

whoshotsam:

Sorry, the AA number in the new Ras PA poll is 20%, up from 5%. Even more bizarre.

____________________

sunnymi:

@Angus Mc:

Chill out....PA will stay Blue..don't get suckered into this frenzy.

____________________

merveilleux:

Do they have internal numbers for AAs? The only thing I can think of is that they interviewed less of them.

____________________

sunnymi:


@Observer:

The devil is in the detail....McCain is gaining because some of the undecideds are breaking his way....Obama has been at 52 or 53 for 2 weeks now.

____________________

maddiekat:

I watched Axelrod on MSNBC last night. He said he feels very good about PA from his polling data and the volunteers he has on the ground. Relax!!!

____________________

carl29:

Some times I see some people here saying things like: Oh... Obama is up by 15% in this or that poll. I think to myself, NO, NO, NO, NO, He is not he is at the level of support he gets and give the rest to McMaverick.

For some of you this reads Obama up by 11%,

CBS News/NY Times Obama 52 McCain 41

To me this reads Obama 52% vs. McCain 48%.


I am not naive enough to believe that someone is undecided at this phase of the race. C'mon give me a break!!!!!!

____________________

straight talk:

Obama supporters! You guys are buying into the Republican talking points and polls showing tightening, but remember it is just a poll! Now I have been commenting on the sight for a few days now and I noticed that the O supporters are never really confident!

Now I am an independent who leans republican at times voting for Obama 08!

YOurs candidate is so confident in Pa, that he is not even going there no more this week!Why? Because they got a GOTV STRAtegy.

Some of you will see these internals showing you McCain is getting 20% of AA and you believe it! Polling is a science, and it is a business!

OBama will carry that state by +10! But if you see it, do not be suprised because some pollsters predicted it!


____________________

jamesugw:

Carl29 -
Good point. We've been spoilt with toweringly-good polls recently, that +3 or +4 in PA seems like a disaster. It isn't - this was always going to be close.

____________________

JR:

WERE IS TODAYS RAS POLL? DOES ANYONE KNOW WHAT TIME IT COMES OUT?

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

5 minutes RAS release the tracker

____________________

straight talk:

But make no mistake about it people this will be a landslide win for OBama! Because OBama overperforms in southern states! He will do the overperform in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Texas(SLEEPER PICK)!

____________________

carl29:

Read this comment from Morning Call:


"That is the closest the race has been -- according to the tracking poll -- in a month. Two days ago, Obama led in the poll by a 13-point margin, 54 percent to 41 percent.

There's good news to be had for Obama, to be sure. Not since mid-October has Obama's level of support fallen below 52 percent. But this is the first time since Muhlenberg started the tracker Sept. 26 that McCain's percentage has reached 44 percent, suggesting that late-breakers are moving toward the Arizona senator."

-------------------------------------

Guys, it really surprises me that some people thought that those "undecided" could be for Obama. I mean, if after all the disaster of the 8 years of Republican ruling and McCain incapability with the economy, you still DON'T KNOW who you will for, you got HUGE issues with Obama. Forget it, you are NOT a potential Obama voter. Sorry, I am optimistic but not that dumb :-)

____________________

SoloBJ:

@straight talk,
I'm a BIG Obama supporter and have been talking to people and encouraging them to vote but no, my confidence level isn't too high at this point where I'm screaming "landslide" like some of you guys.

There was an engineer who came to my house the other day and said all of his family, buddies, friends, etc will be voting for Obama. He said his chances look good but he won't believe Obama will win until he actually does win b/c there are too many "hidden" things in the background that always throw a monkey wrench in the program and result in a stolen election.

As for PA, Rendell said earlier on, McCain and Palin have been camping out in PA. Now, I guess I know why he was "begging" for Obama and/or the Clintons to come back there.

I am disappointed that Obama doesn't have any scheduled visits there but instead will be in places like MO this coming week.

Yes, I guess I am "so, so obsessed with the spread" (btw, I really do suffer from OCD) but anyway, I'm just really concerned. I don't want PA to be a +2 race where one can easily have a manipulated situation in the end as everyone knows McCain really needs this state to pull off a win.

My guess is that things will tighten even more in PA by Monday and the media will run with that story.

____________________

KMartDad08:

If immigration had been a bigger issue in the campaign, then this story about Obama's aunt might gain more traction. Actually, I think it has the potential to gain some sympathy for Obama. Why was this story leaked and by whom? It smacks of dirty tricks. Why bring this lady into the picture at this late date. What has she done to hurt anybody?

____________________

sunnymi:


Rasmussen Daily Tracking

Obama - 51
McCain - 46

____________________

carl29:

SoloBJ,

Of course that the media will be all over PA!!! They know that if McCain loses PA is over for him. McCain put all his eggs in the PA basket and now he has to take it.

I think it will be: Obama 53% or 52%, McCain 47% or 48%. I hope I don't end with egg on my face :-)

____________________

sunnymi:

This from Rasmussen pretty much nails the election:

Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group. Obama also has a similar lead among the small group who have not voted but still plan to vote early. The candidates are essentially even among those who plan to vote on Tuesday.

Not surprisingly, the number of persuadable voters has declined sharply as Election Day draws near. Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and won’t change their mind. Forty-three percent (43%) say the same about McCain. Six percent (6%) have a preference for one of the major party candidates but could change their mind, 2% plan to vote for a third party option and 2% remain undecided.

____________________

carl29:

KMartDad08,

Among Hispanics this is going to be such a PLUS!!!! If Obama already had the support of the Hispanic community this will firm things up for him. I can see today Spanish-speaking Media reporting that Obama, as almost all of us from inmigrant families, have an "illegal" aunt :-)

*I am hispanic myself :-)

____________________

KMartDad08:

@SoloBJ

While I am by nature a nervous nellie, I have to believe based on what they've done over the past two years that Axelrod and Plouffe know a thing or two about winning this election. Obama's schedule is fluid, and he may still take a turn to PA if they sense it getting out of hand. But my guess is they know that his upper limit of support is 52 or 53, which is where he is now, so another trip there isn't necessary.

____________________

tjampel:

So funny when you look at Zogby internals. They're exactly what you want to see (if you support Obama) when it comes to % of Dems, independents, AA and Hispanic.

How about the white vote moving to McCain? Zogby shows a higher % of the white vote for McCain than Kos.

How about Dems and Repubs getting their base? Once again Zogby shows better numbers for Obama.

Zogby

Party - Democrats
Obama 87.2 (85.9), McCain 8.5 (9.8)

Party - Republicans
Obama 10.9 (12.4), McCain 85.0 (83.8)

Here's Kos' breakdown:
McCain Obama

DEM 9 88 0 1 1 1
REP 91 5 1 0 1 2

Note that Dems are just about equal but far more Repubs vote McCain in Kos' poll. Zogby shows a bigger base problem for Repubs.


Latino voters, as well, support Obama at significantly higher levels in Zogby than in Kos

Zogby
Hisp Obama 67.9 McCain 26.0 (25.9)

Kos
LATINO 64 34 1 1

So, what gives?

Firstly whereas the Research 2000 poll has been solid as a rock in most of the individual demographics Zogby has been all over the map. The most apparent example of this today is in two catagories, gender preference, which is nonsensical:

Gender:
Males Obama 49.8 (48.8), McCain 43.7 (43.7)
Females Obama 48.5 (51.3), McCain 44.6 (42.4)

This makes absolutely no sense, given the consistent pro-Obama tilt of women, nationally, and the pro-McCain (relatively) slant of men. No other national poll that I've seen shows anything like this. Nate, at 538, calls Zogby's polls "volatile" for a reason

The main thing, however, is to realize that, based on these numbers there is an even number of Dems and Repubs

And Central US numbers, which are even stranger, given those of other pollsters and given the individual numbers in these states. Zogby is far off with McCain at +11, while Kos/y2k has been extremely consistently Obama at least +10 for the past few weeks and today it's +12. Based on the states whih comprise the Midwest (perhaps Zogby doesn't include CO in this mix) that number ought to be at least +7 or +8 for Obama....it aint close, which suggests a weird sample size for that region and possibly others.

Bottom line is that this poll has Dems and Repub party ID at about +2 for Dems to get these numbers. This is totally out of line based on the results of the most reliable national tracker....Rasmussen, which pegs it at about +7. Factor that in and you have an 8 point race


____________________

KMartDad08:

Ras has Obama above 50 and McCain lost a point, not that one day fluctuation is all that significant. R2K showed a good day for Friday (O+9), with a three day average of O+7. Goes to show our late night angst over Zogby was for naught (as Sarah would say).

____________________

straight talk:

Obama is probably at 8+ min in PA if Rass corrected that AA number!

But I believe in his GOTV MAchine! Man some of these lines are huge! That is why I am confident! The media has to keep their ratings going because they are being accused of biased for Obama toward McCain!

PA is safe! But TEXAS WILL NOT BE FOR THE M CAMP!

____________________

SoloBJ:

@KMartDad08,

Nervous nellie I am. I have a good feeling that we will see Obama or the Clintons back in PA before Tuesday. I know Biden is campaigning there on Monday but I doubt he will be the only from the Obama camp making a stop there.

____________________

MileHigh:

@falcon79-

Have you been to WY?

____________________

jamesia:

I think the story of Obama's aunt will just inspire more sympathy for him. Granted, it is his half-aunt (I don't even know my half-aunts), so it's a tough link back to him anyway.... But Republicans will use it as a nasty attack on Obama, feigning concern for the status of our immigration system. Immigrant and minority groups will see it as more of a reason to rally to Obama, and because his aunt was denied ASYLUM, Independents will be upset that Republicans make an issue of it. And this will all have to happen within the next couple of days before Tuesday. Most of those days fall on a holiday weekend, so good luck to the GOP smear machine (I think?)

____________________

cinnamonape:

First off...it's interesting that the story was released on the eve of the election when she's been here for what...four years?

Second, the right-wing has been all over the tale that Obama has done NOTHING to help his half-aunt. So likely they knew about this in the McCain campaign (and certainly in the Bush Administration) and were waiting until the last moment to "pop it" without context.

Third, IN CONTEXT it actually would bolster Obama's credentials as a fair...and non-nepotistic...individual. It's clear that he has had little interaction with this half-aunt since she immigrated, he didn't encourage her to stay (as the Repugs say...she was "neglected" by Obama). Apparently he didn't pull strings to keep her in this country.

So what's the issue? In fact, it's a breath of fresh air that we have a person running that isn't putting his daughters into the State Department (Cheney), or pushing his mediocre sons into politics (Bush), or divorcing one wife to marry a beer-heiress so that he could have millions at his fingertips to run for the Senate. And look at the nepotism/cronyism on the Palin side of the family! She used her High School yearbook as the principle selection guide to appoint Alaskas executive branch!

____________________

cinnamonape:

BTW Another disaster may befall McCain on Sunday.
Apparently it's about that Palestinian scholar that the Palin-stinians keep shouting "show the tape...show the tape" to the LA Times about.

Apparently Rashid Khalidi was interviewed with John McCain in 1991 by Leslie Stahl on "60 Minutes". That was the genesis for a group McCain was involved in giving a half-million dollars to Khalidis survey-anylysis institute.

"60 Minutes" has the tape, including out-takes.

Talk about blow-back! This may be a case where the McCain campaign let a 527 group run with something that they should have at least cleared with McCain himself....if McCain even remembered the events.

But it could be a real disaster. If "^0 Minutes" doesn't air the tape and discuss the McCain donations some other media source with access to the broadcast tapes likely will.

____________________

balancebudget:

I still wonder when a new bin Laden tape will be released. Now that would change things.

____________________

TJIRISH34:

Huskert what does Obama's half aunt have do with anything? This is all the GOP could come up with at the last minute? There October suprise? Good grief be thankful the GOP thinks this story is going to have an effect on voting. In other words: No one voting for Obama is going to not vote for him over this. For those not voting for Obama. Just another reason not vote for him. This is why McCain's campaign has been lousy. His campaign is directed at the base of party and the base is only 30%. Throw in some leaners and the "I will never vote for a black man" crowd you get McCain's national numbers: Low 40's. Someone should explain to McCain's campaign after the election you swing right in primary, swing towards middle in general election. You don't swing right and stay right in gemeral election.

____________________

TJIRISH34:

BTW I saw some guy on wall street whining about Obama winning. He claims that market will tank Wednesday after election cause Obama will raise capital gains tax to 20% from 15%. Say's if McCain wins market go up 10% Wednesday. Bunch of other wall street guys pooh poohed those comments. Said wall street hates uncertainty. Just wants know who will win election and then adjust. I own mutuals in 401K etc... I also own a speculative stock (AMSC). It's main industry is building turbines for wind power industry. One of reasons I hope Obama wins because of his views on alternative energy. But that capital gains tax. That is a tax on profits. So if I told you "hey buy AMSC. Company is suppose be profitable hopefully by 2010. The stock around $12.50 right now. If you buy the stock it might be at $40 by 2010." Would you say today "no no I won't buy that stock and make abuncha money cause Obama raised the capital gains tax from 15% to 20%." It's soo much BS. BTW Obama claims he wants to cut health costs by having doctors, health care providers etc... Record more patient info on computers etc... o save money. If yo believe this will happen. A way possibly make money on this idea in future is a company called Cerner (CERN). Check it out. I don't own it. ast looked wass in high $30's. But company is largest company that sells software and hardware for exactly what Obama is suggesting. Sooo might be worth a look.

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