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DE: 2010 Senate (Kos 10/12-14)


Daily Kos (D) / Research 2000
10/12-14/09; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Delaware

Favorable / Unfavorable
Beau Biden (D): 65 / 29
Ted Kaufman (D): 36 / 26
John Carney (D): 41 / 19
Chris Coons (D): 34 / 8
Mike Castle (R): 64 / 30
Charlie Copeland (R): 11 / 8
Greg Lavelle (R): 9 / 6
Jack Markell (D): 55 / 28 (chart)
Tom Carper (D): 53 / 31
Barack Obama (D): 64 / 32 (chart)

2010 Senate (trends)
Castle 46%, Biden 45%
Castle 51%, Kaufman 37%
Castle 49%, Carney 41%
Castle 51%, Cooms 39%

2010 House
Carney 44%, Copeland 21%
Carney 44%, Lavelle 18%

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Delaware apparently loves this dude Castle considering how liberal the state votes. I don't know much about him.

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Stillow:

Castle will win this, they do like him in DE...just like CT likes simmons....

I see a minimum of 5 GOP pickups i nthe senate next year....with a real shot at 8 or 9 if a wave develops. The only seat I think may flip the toehr way is OH.

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Stillow:

Add MO along with OH as the only seats I see flipping the other way at this point.

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Xenobion:

Castle is pratically a blue dog dem. Fiscal conservative and big social liberal. Pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-stem cell research. I'd be surprised if he voted with his party on anything except fiscal issues. I wouldn't mind if the republicans started going with social moderates/liberals running their party frankly like Castle.

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Stillow:

Heheheheheheh....pro enviroment, everyone is pro enviroment. I read Castle is pro choice, but favors some restrictions. I am a conservtive and I favor stem cell research. So I'd vote for him...fically conservtive, socially moderate, I hav no issue with that.

Fiscally liberal people have run us int othe ground, so as long as someone is fiscally conservative they will get the votes of people like me.

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Xenobion:

LCV rates him on par with Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe on the environment.

He's voted yes on every heathcare related reform since 2000.

Has a mixed tax record like being in favor of the Estate Tax.

Anyways, he's a true moderate, which is nice but still far left from the rest of his party.

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Wong:

I think this is Biden's seat if he wants it.

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jmartin4s:

2010 is gonna be like fools gold for the GOP, like 2002 was for Dems. The dems are going to probably pickup MO, OH, NC, and NH while loosing NV and holding the rest of the seats. The polls will start to show this in spring of 2010.

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LordMike:

These are surprisingly lousy numbers for Castle. The Republicans thought he'd be a complete and total lock, but he's currently tied with a guy who hasn't even declared his candidacy... and this, during the worst environment for Dems ever. Looking at the internals, the only reason it's tied is 'cos of wishy-washy Demcocrats. If they come home, as expected, Biden takes a large lead.

Castle's going to have to really work for this... all he really wants to do is retire. He told the local media that he's basically only doing this as a favor to the party, he'd rather be in Florida enjoying his golden years. That's not exactly a full commitment, especially when the VP's son is expected to run against you.

It will still be a tough race, for sure, but it's not even close to the lock that Republicans assume. I'm rather surprised at these numbers. Castle going in was presumed to be an immediate, impossible to beat frontrunner, but even his Rasmussen numbers from last week are surprisingly mediocre.

It will be interesting to see what Castle's vote is on health care reform. Since he has no real primary challenger, if he's smart, he'll vote for it. That's the kind of stuff that gives independents the warm and fuzzies...

Mark Kirk should do it, too, but he's facing a primary from a wingnut, so he can't... That's going to hurt him in the general.

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Bigmike:

Don't you just love the passion you see on this site. But how about a dose of reality.

It isn't 1994 all over again. Repubs have a vacuum at the top and no clear plan like the contract with America. If we pick up more than 3-4 Senate seats and 15-20 in the house it will be a miracle.

LordMike

"the worst environment for Dems ever." You guys have the WH, a big majority in the House, and a super-majority in the Senate. Party ID is way in your favor. Congressional Repubs have approval ratings only half of what the Dems have. If Dems can't govern as they see fit now then they will never be able to. Politically this is as good as it will ever get for a party.

I don't see this as good times for anyone. The most common thing I see in all of these polls is incumbents who are not particularly popular. Incumbents from both parties.

It is way to early to predict a "throw the bums out" result next year. But a boy has a right to his dreams!!!

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Stillow:

My 5 GOP pickups in 2012 are:

NV, CO, DE, CT and AR.

I think the GOP has real shot at these espeically if certain people run, rudy in NY ofr example.

ND, IL, NY, PA

The GOp will hold NH and NC fairly easily. OH and MO are pure tossups at this point.

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Stillow:

By the way, I am use current polling to make my picks...current polling favor the GOP in most of these races. The GOP simply have that one guy in some of these states who cannot be beaten....I have read GOP sites saying they will get Rudy to run in NY, if he does, the seat is his...there's only one Dem in NY who can beat him and its Cuomo, who will no run for the senate.

Current polling is trending GOp and that is how I get to my picks...its not just fantasy. We are only a year away which is both a long and short time away in politics. But make no mistake, the people will seek out balance...

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jmartin4s:

polling at this point in 2001 showed the Dems taking back the senate in 2002, the opposite happened. Your going to be very disapointed with NJ and the midterms in 2010. I suggest you secede from this county with the rest of your texas teabagging trash friends.

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tjampel:

Guiliani has indicated he's not interested in the Senate seat. For example he appeared at Rick Lazio's fund raiser recently and he's stated that he's more interested in the Governor's office (GO RICK!!! maybe you can get 40% this time). If he were he might win, though he's proved to be a terrible campaigner and quitter at the national level, and, he's perceived as a very nasty human being on a personal level. I remember feeling pretty good when he was elected mayor of NYC only to find myself more and more repulsed by his style of governing, petty feuds and pettiness, hypocrisy (for example he tried to ticket jaywalkers (meaning everyone in NYC) until he was caught on camera doing it himself),and, the thing people tend to remember most; the way he had his wife (whom he was in the process of dumping for Judy Nathan) unceremoniously thrown out of a hospital when she tried to visit his dying mother. It's a moment that's crystallized in NYC history

He's had one good national moment (911), which he's replayed endlessly. It's too bad, he was a great prosecutor who fearlessly took on the Mafia. I used to like him.

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tjampel:

CT ...Simmons has a good chance IF he can fend off everyone to the right of him, which is all of the other candidates and much of the Republican base in CT. He does well in the general elections because he's a moderate. Of course now he's taken to walking around with a teabag; wow...a true conversion! Dodd's obviously in deep trouble. 75% chance for Simmons (if he wins primary)

OH... (Brunner I think it will be) as a 65% chance for Dems

MO...closer to 60%. I don't think much of Blunt though; I think this one will be won on who's more likable; edge to Carnahan

TX...(just to throw this in) Bill White is very popular in Hou, which is good , because a lot of Republicans live there and vote for him. Once Kay Baily Hutchinson resigns there's no strong candidate for Repubs. They should win pretty easily but I think White can beat a no-name, since his approval ratings are high and he's known. I give White a 35% chance. That's sky high for TX for a Dem; maybe it's his perfect storm opportunity.

ND...I don't see Dorgan being beaten; there's little evidence for this

IL...I can see Kirk coming close but look out; he needs to go way right to win the primary, then try to track way left. I doubt he can manage all that and come out a winner in Obama's home state. He's popular there and he will definitely campaign for the Dem. I'd put this at 80% for the Dem (probably Giannoulas)

Nev...a good Repub pickup possibility. I almost hope it happens. Just to get rid of Reid. I'm sick of him. 65% chance for Repubs; the only reason it's only 65% is because seniority/power matters to some folks.

NC....Rep hold; no really strong candidate to take on a week Burr

KY... Looks like Mongiardo is self-destructing through leaked nasty comments about Gov Bashear, lack of enthusiasm, and poor fundraising; Conway is raising huge sums of money. I don't see a great Repub challenger. Conway is pretty much even in most match ups right now. He's against cap and trade, and pretty much in tune with sentiments of Kentuckians, who don't always vote Repub, obviously. I rate this as 40% chance of Dem pickup.

CO... will be tough for Bennett to hang in there. On the other hand I don't think his opponent is going to create much excitement, especially since many voters confuse here with the Norton who worked for Bush and who is now under Federal investigation (or is it indictment now, I forget). I see this a toss-up but leaning Repub slightly right now

NH..advantage Ayotte....for now, until she's better defined. Hodes is a good campaigner and reasonably popular. He's not gonna go lying down. 60% chance Ayotte

AR...Lincoln deserve to lose. She probably will. Being so centrist that no one likes you probably isn't a very good strategy Repub 75%

PA...given an overwhelming Dem advantage right now I just don't see a Club for Growth conservative winning PA, not in my backyard....not yet. Ironically Sestack seems to be gaining momentum and does better than Specter in the latest polls. Dem 80%


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tjampel:

Ohh yeah....LOL...DE...the poll...duhh

Castle's numbers suck. He should be up at least 5% by now. Biden has name recognition, Iraq credentials (as a soldier that is) and little else. Castle has a lifetime of service as an independent-minded moderate.

Maybe it's partly an age thing, the name, of course, and also an enthusiasm gap. Castle isn't into this at all and has put no effort in fund-raising at this point. His numbers are very low, and the market is very expensive. I also wonder if he has the will at 70+ to campaign actively. He hasn't had to do that for 20 years.

So....I think toss up,...yes...but slight advantage to Biden; and....I think things will get worse for Castle if he doesn't have the fire in his belly to pull this off. We'll just have to see. I do have respect for him.

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Stillow:

Those are good observations. I put ND in there because I have seen two polls showing if Hoevan runs he beats Dorgan. ND is a red state with a blue senator....Hoevan is popular and would defeat Dorgan. I thought about white in TX, but TX is just to conservative to elect a dem right now. Its just not going to happen. What would be really wierd is if Hutchison beats Perry and then Perry runs for her senate seat...because both of them are popular in TX.

I've heard differnt on rudy....I saw Cornyn saying he is really trying to get rudy to run for that seat.

I give the edg eto the GOP in these close races because history shows us the country likes to put congressional members in from the opposing party that occupys the WH. Bush was really the first to change that in a long time....

As for the NJ race, I think the GOp already wins here. A deeply blue state, if Corzine does win it will be by the skin of his teeth...and it took a third party guy taking votes away fro mthe GOP there. I still think christie wins this. But we will know in just a couple weeks.

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platanoman:

Stillow, there's no such thing as a moral victory in politics. NJ is deep a blue state. But, it doesn't mean a good Republican candidate can't win. If Kathleen Sebelius has not proved it, then Vermont Jim Douglas has proved it. If Rell from CT has not proved it, then Brian Schweitzer has proved it.

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Scott:

Interesting...every non-DailyKOS poll (hint: not in the tank for the Democrats) has shown Castle leading by 5 points or more over Biden. Yet somehow this poll is golden. Whatever....

As a native Delawarean, IMHO this is Castle's race to lose. Not Bidens'. As some seem to believe.

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platanoman:

A poll of Castle leading by 5 is golden? LOL If this is Castle's race to lose he should be head by a lot. He's known, but the man is old. There's a race here

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Xenobion:

They both have name recognition. Noone knows that Beau Biden is running yet, that's the difference of this poll. Even Tom Tancredo can get double diget poll numbers before the rest of the crew get in the game. An old dog from the days of yore vs. the acting Attorney General. He's too moderate against Biden to be any worth to his party. Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free with Biden?

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