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DE: 49% Castle, 37% Coons (Rasmussen 8/5)

Topics: Delaware , poll

Rasmussen
8/5/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Delaware

2010 Senate
49% Castle (R), 37% Coons (D) (chart)
46% Coons (D), 36% O'Donnell (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chris Coons: 51 / 33
Mike Castle: 65 / 27
Christine O'Donnell: 41 / 38

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55 / 44 (chart)
Gov. Markell: 65 / 32 (chart)

 

Comments
CUWriter:

Really no change here except for people who thought O'Donnell could win this race. Castle will win by 10-15.

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Paleo:

Castle still under 50%. I'd like to see another pollster take a crack at this race. Could be the least talked about surprise among the senate races.

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Chantal:

The Democrat is named Coons and yet Republicans are the racists? Such hypocrisy. Kos/PPP will poll this next week. I'm predicting they'll show a 5 point race.

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tjampel:

Castle is pretty old (71), has had two strokes, and hasn't had to campaign hard in a gazillion years. Is he up for a tough and vigorous campaign? I dunno; anyone on the ground in DE?. Can Coons make it a lot tougher by running a serious air war; Depends on how much cash he's got and party support, of course. I'd think he'd put most effort into introducing himself and nationalizing key blue state issues and why having another Repub would harm this agenda, rather than try to attack Castle personally.

When the spread goes from R+23 to R+11 from one poll to the next...in a blue state....which makes this much different than NY or CT, which have similar margins right now...the party should at least take notice. If this gets into high single digits next time the state is polled I'd bet that DSCC and DNC invest

If Castle is elected, as with Crist, it may end up being a good thing in the long run if a group of 5-6 centrist Repubs/Idependents (Snowe, Collins, Crist, Castle, Scott, and maybe Lugar on foreign policy at least + Lindsay Graham when he decides he wants to move energy and immigration bills) can work with Dem leadership.

Having 5-6 moderate Repubs makes them more of a force, rather than a few going against their leadership. Right now you have that with Dems...just a few blue dog Senators, and that's about to thin out by two (Landrieu and Bayh); Ben Nelson may be a Republican by next year; I wonder if he'll be part of the moderate group, though? I think he'll go hard right if he switches, a la Specter.

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Farleftandproud:

Castle is going to be tough to beat, and Coons has an uphill battle. High energy on his behalf and the ability to reach all parts of the state. Delaware is a small state so in the case of someone like Castle who is a very moderate Republican there isn't the kind of fear you can use like you can against an opponent like Rand Paul or Sharron Angle.

Reaching out to Democrats and making sure they all vote for Coons will be a good strategy. Chafee in RI was well liked statewide like Castle, and his opponent had good things to say about him, but the best argument is if this race came down to the balance of power in the senate, Democrats have to vote for their own party.

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Bigmike:

tjampel

It makes no difference on the point you were making but I think you mean Lincoln instead of Landrieu.

While I am not overly fond of "centrist" Republicans, I can't disagree with you.

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LordMike:

"Castle still under 50%. I'd like to see another pollster take a crack at this race"

You will get your wish! The first dKos PPP poll will be Deleware next week. I believe that PPP is in the field this weekend.

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tjampel:

Big Mike:
Yupp...Lincoln and Bayh

thx

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Rockym92:

Will be nice to see someone except rass poll this. It's been a sort of forgotten race for the past few months. I'm sure PPP will show it a couple points closer, in the high single digits.

A popular former lt gov and governor, Castle has won numerous statewide races in DE since 1981 (even won comfortably in 06 and 08) so I'd be really surprised to see him lose in a much more favorable year to R's. He should win by double digits.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Age is a problem for most candidates, especially if they are trying for a new office. It depends how good of a candidate Coons is. In any case, Castle probably will serve only one senate term and will be in there with Brown, Maine sisters as one of the moderates.

Note his website's statement on health care:

"When Mike Castle served as Governor of Delaware, the state expanded coverage for cancer and diabetes screening, increased school-based health care, and developed community health care centers. In Congress, Castle's priority has been reducing the skyrocketing cost of health care by holding insurance companies accountable, ending Medicare fraud and abusive medical lawsuits, and making sure people with pre-existing conditions are no longer denied coverage."

Practically a democrat. No mention of Obamacare whatsoever.

On campaign finance:

"His support for the bipartisan landmark reforms to place limits on campaign contributions continues with his opposition to the Supreme Court ruling in favor of Citizens United and his leadership to prevent outside interests groups from influencing elections."

Sounds pretty democratic.

The only republican tidbit he puts in there is the "out of control" fed gov't. Convenient catch-all.

No video of him on his website, and the most famous youtube video of him is the one where the birthers confront him. He was generally ill-received at a lot of townhalls, called a "traitor" etc... Make no mistake, the right wing does NOT like Castle, and they made that very clear at his townhalls. He voted for cap and trade in the house, for example, and was a yes vote on financial reform. He's been trying like hell to run away from the right-wingers...his website has so many young people and minorities featured on it you'd think he was a 36 year old democrat.

Environment seems to be big issue in DE. Coons main point of difference with Castle is potential offshore drilling off the DE coast, which more residents seem to be against than for. Castle's webpage is very vague on that but does not suggest

But, Coons is not charismatic, he looks like a younger version of Castle. There isn't really much space between them after looking at their websites.

My guess is that Castle wins this but not by as much as we think it's going to be.

BTW, does anyone else notice that seemingly every candidate's website now looks likea version of Obama's 2008 one?

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Farleftandproud:

If this race tightens up I may see if I can make calls for Coons. I think PA is the one the Dems have the best shot at winning, because it is well organized, but if it becomes too nationalized it could scare voters away.

I think Delaware should be on the table for the Dems. Even though Castle is a decent guy and is a populist based on his record, the best way for Dems to try to win this race, is focus less on Castle, but on the GOP leadership, and if this race meant the Dems could lose the Senate in 2010 or 2012, what it would mean to have people like Inhofe as committee chairs. They can campaign vigorously in DE about people like Boehner, Bachman and Barton and they too would be chairs of their committees. Obama on most polls has 60 percent approval in Delaware.

I think this would be the Democrats best strategy in DE. Maybe Castle would have a moderate voting record, but balance of power in the hands of the GOP would not please a majority of the people of DE

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Farleftandproud:

If this race tightens up I may see if I can make calls for Coons. I think PA is the one the Dems have the best shot at winning, because it is well organized, but if it becomes too nationalized it could scare voters away.

I think Delaware should be on the table for the Dems. Even though Castle is a decent guy and is a populist based on his record, the best way for Dems to try to win this race, is focus less on Castle, but on the GOP leadership, and if this race meant the Dems could lose the Senate in 2010 or 2012, what it would mean to have people like Inhofe as committee chairs. They can campaign vigorously in DE about people like Boehner, Bachman and Barton and they too would be chairs of their committees. Obama on most polls has 60 percent approval in Delaware.

I think this would be the Democrats best strategy in DE. Maybe Castle would have a moderate voting record, but balance of power in the hands of the GOP would not please a majority of the people of DE

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Liz:

I was polled for this race and after i said i would vote for Coons they gave me five different positive senarios about Castle to try and change my choice, which i didn't do but I could image others might change their response. the dems can win this if they get out the vote there is a wide gap in D's to R's. Obama is still popular here and Biden could help push Coons over the top. I'm not sure the media gets this race.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Liz

Wow. Did their script follow the 11 questions identified in the report? Did they add additional commentary or additional questions?

I really think Coons has an excellent shot of winning this race.

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Chris V.:

"Farleftandproud:

They can campaign vigorously in DE about people like Boehner, Bachman and Barton and they too would be chairs of their committees. Obama on most polls has 60 percent approval in Delaware."

Somehow I think focusing on the economy will resonate more with the voters of Delaware than a bunch of ads about some GOP politicians that the majority of Delaware voters have probably never even heard of.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

I was just in Delaware this weekend. I saw few signs for either of them. I saw a number of signs for state senators. I don't see any in PA for Sestak or Toomey. I think moderates are very frustrated right now and they don't know who to vote for. They aren't happy with the Republicans but they are so-so on the Democrats too. My friend who was very political in 2000 doesn't even want to vote this year. I think the conservative are very motivated right now. Moderates and liberals not so much.

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