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DE: Castle 55, Biden 34 (Susquehanna-4/27-30)


Susquehanna Polling & Research
4/27-30/09; 500 registered voters *, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Delaware)

Job Approval
Pres. Obama (D): 62% Approve, 24% Disapprove
Gov. Merkell (D): 48% Approve, 18% Disapprove

2010 Senate - General Election
Castle (R) 55, B. Biden (D) 34 (trend)

(source)

* "...500 registered voters working from an updated statewide voter file. Only voters with prior vote history in prior election years G06, G04 and/or G02 were contacted, as well as newly-registered voters from the 2008 elections."

 

Comments
Stillow:

The GOP has very strong pickup chances now in: NY, IL, CT, CO and now DE if Castle runs, he is popular there. This is a huge gap between Castle and Biden...that is a lot of room to make up....and surprisng he is down so badly in a really bue state....
There are signs everywhere of a 1994 Clinton effect.

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IdahoMulato:

Stillow

Still living in a dream land. Beau just needs Prez. Obama and VP Biden to campaign for him and everything will change.

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@Stillow:
Looking at current polling, some Democrats do appear vulnerable in 2010. Only one of these (Dodd in CT) is connected to actual National issues (mortgage and banking meltdowns). The rest are the result of Senatorial vacancies due to Cabinet appointments or the Presidential election itself. Some of the weaker incumbents may be replaced by stronger candidates in primaries (Bennet in CO, Burris in IL, Dodd in CT). Portraying this as a 1994 rerun is highly speculative at this point.

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change:

@poll_apart is very right, the belt way talk right now is that 2010 will be a bad year for republicans, very well-connected voices like Gloria Borger say so (cnn.) Her reason is that too many republicans are retiring. And the bigger picture her is that republicans will soon be even more marginalized due to loosing the youth by very big margins, some analysts predict that the GOP will near instinct for the next 40 years! Thank God

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Stillow:

Well ya its all speculation right now, that is all we can do until it gets closer. Right now on current names and projections, polling data shows some Dems in hig trouble.

Change:
Those same analysts said the Democratic party was dead after the Nixon slaughter of Mcgovern in 1972....those same analyusts said the democratcs were cooked after the 1984 whipping Reagan put on Mondale...those same analysts said the democrats were finished after the 1994 GOP wave...those same analysts said the Republicans were done after the 96 Clinton whipping of Dole....those same analysts said there was no way Bush would pickup seats in 2002 mid terms and he did....those same analysts said the democrats were done in the 2002 mid terms, surely you recall Carville with the paper bag on his head? Now these same analysts say the republicans are cooked for the 2010 elections and moving forward, ya know the ols saying right? "If ananalysts lips are moving, he is probably wrong". They have been predicting the death of both parties for 60 years based on recent elections, the parties go back and forth in popularity, up and down in cycles.
The youth vote is not surprising, youth have supported Dems overhwelming for the past 60 years....it isn't tunil around age 30 or so that the youthful dems start becoming republicans once they get established in a job and actually pay taxes....thats why the majority of the GOP is middle ages middle class people, cus once they start paying taxes and seeing how its spent, many of them become GOP.
Its that old saying, you are born a democrat, you live a republican and you die a democrat.
And it doesn't matter which party is in control, when the economy goes into recession which it always does and will do, the party in power always gets the boot...Reagan 1980, Clinton 1992, Bush 2000, Obama 2008...each one of thsoe cycles we wer ein some level of recession and the opposing party won....so it really is the economy stupid as Clinton coined. Thats why there will always be shifiting amongs the parties, this is also true if you look at european elections, you saw countries like France vote for pro capitalism conservatives because there economies were in the tank...and the party in power, no matter who it is will be bamed.
What obama has to worry about as many economists think will happen, is that the economy will hve a temporary recovery to an extent, but all th overspending will create high inflation which will create an inflationary recession by 2012 which will probably cook Obama's goose...remember, this was a super favorable cycle for the Dems, with a cult like figure in Obama with a large populist following in a heavily anti GOP cycle and he still only was able to get 53 percent for the vote. 59 million still voted against him.
Plus if you look at polls like the 2008 battleground poll, little over 60 percent of all people consider themselves a conservative at one level or antoher....that far outnumbers self identitied liberals....Traditional repubs and dems live there lives for the most part as conservatives even if they do not always vote that way.....that will trump the D or R next to ones name.

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sjt22:

Castle would probably win this matchup, as he's obviously very popular and well liked in DE, though I doubt it would really be a blowout like this. What's funny is that, while I'm sure they would welcome the technical pickup of a seat, Castle is so moderate/liberal for a Republican that he would likely become demonized as a RINO before too long.

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