Pollster.com

Regarding uncommitted voter polls at this point in time, I do not expect them to reflect much on the general population.

Obama has been picking up uncommitted in the last few weeks, and it would seem that many of the Obama leaner have moved to committed, and everything just shifts up. So now you have a pool of uncommitted voters that is much more conservative or Republican leaning than you had just a month ago. I believe the CBS poll above shows this clearly.

It would be interesting to see the demographics on the CBS sample and see how that compares to likely voters as a whole as that should show whether or not the undecided pool is getting more conservative and Republican.

As someone who's not voting for either Obama or McCain (McKinney), I have to say that Obama clearly won.

Non-verbally, Obama once again came off much more poised and confident. McCain did a much better job this time around than last debate, but he still has an unpleasant demeanor about him at times, espeically when he gets up upset and/or starts blinking rapidly.

The only question I thought McCain really dominated on was the one concerning Georgia and Russia. He genuinely came off as more knowledgeable and capable on that issue. Obama definitely responded to some questions off-point, but only that time worse than McCain.

The above polls bear out my impressions. The "undecideds" like both candidates the more they see and hear them, but definitely prefer Obama. The likability and "time spent attacking" metrics paint a pretty clear picture.

Obama's leads can't go much higher, but I think this debate will solidify them. He'd have to really screw something up in the third debate to throw the election at this point.

The numbers in the CBS poll have been updated. They're now 40-26-34.

These flash polls are great. They short circuit the spin cycle that used to take days to about 30 minutes.

But, I'm curious about the intelligence of people who are undecided at this point. There are some stark differences between these candidates stylistically and philosophically.

This is a clear win for Obama. Maybe not for one's personal view, but most definitely it is a win in terms of the election.

The reason post debate polling moves in Obama's direction is that the biggest obstacle he faces with many voters is his relative lack of experience. But in the in the past few months and in the debates especially, these voters are able to see a thoughtful, intelligent man who is able to keep is calm under fire. They become more comfortable seeing him in the role of President.

I think the most important finding was this:

"Candidates rated - prepared for the job of president
McCain: 80% before the debate, 84% after
Obama: 42% before the debate, 57% after"

At first glance it looks overwhelmingly positive for McCain, until you see that Obama broke the only threshold left between him and the presidency.

Yes, John King explained it this way, and i'm paraphrasing, "Think of the country as 20 people, 8 people identify with democrats, 6 people identify with republicans, and 6 people are independents, that means John McCain has to pick up more than half of undecided independents and that hasn't been happening..."

as I should've said i dont believe John King was specifically talking about this poll but since he does seem to run the numbers at CNN i dont think its a stretch to assume this may be the party weightings..

I hate to say assume on a site where everyone is poll junkies.

@ Big Mike ; I hope you log on soon. I thought any chance your guy had to win went away today. McCain still has a chance however. I was talking to a guy I thought was a sensible person. He is a decent person. As much as I try not to bring up this election - he did. He told me that he would not vote for Obama because he was going to appoint people like Louie Farrakhan (spelling wrong) once he was elected. I asked him if he thought Obama was a Muslim. He said, I don't know. This guy is an attorney and an individual who you would think was openminded. Don't you or anyone else think this is scary? Obama does not have this election won by a longshot. The Republican Party is the last refuge of racists. Most GOPers are not racists but it looks like the campaign is going that way.

As a recent ex-Republican, I was still very disappointed by John McCain, who I once admired. He accuses Obama as being a tax and spend Dem, then proposes a mortgage bailout plan that he did not mention has been estimated would cost $300 billion (Wall Street Journal). So I was a little confused by what he was up to tonight. Obama really focused on the middle class, and McCain never mentioned them once, just suggested that he continue the tax policies of the current administration, which (even though I stupidly voted for him) Bush has insanely promoted, much to the the joy of the top 1% of this country, which now holds more wealth than anytime since 1929. See the WSJ article back in July that starts (and I saved it cause it sounded like a stretch, but I was wrong):

"In a new sign of increasing inequality in the U.S., the richest 1% of Americans in 2006 garnered the highest share of the nation's adjusted gross income for two decades, and possibly the highest since 1929, according to Internal Revenue Service data."

If nobody wishes to dispute my previous comments I will assume that my points were well taken.

Its amazing how the GOPers have disappeared. No guts.

If McCain is going to narrow this thing, he needs to run out of debates. If I were on that side I'd be in a fury, wondering when he's going to try to change the dynamic. A controlled whisper might not work.

That was the most boring debate of all time. David Brooks actually got something right, that the "frosty" relationship between the two candidates prevents interesting exchanges. It's like two boxers whose styles create hesitant dull fights when they're in the ring together. You can take any 5 minutes of the VP debate and it was markedly more lively and interesting than both presidential debates combined. My only lasting memory from tonight will be Brokaw, like a grumpy old man desperate to find something to complain about.

Obama's not even a skilled debater. That's what makes tonight so remarkable. Hillary toyed with him in the vast majority of the debates. I had someone on a Democratic site assert that Obama "won several debates" against Hillary. He was correct, among about 21. Obama has soared in confidence in these two debates once he realized he had plummeted in class compared to the primaries, like a thoroughbred moving from major stakes race to a claimer. Facing McCain is like second race on the Tuesday card.

@kilbride : I would like to say that it's like Curlin against Big Brown but I have too much respect for Big Brown. His trainer is an idiot but the horse is game. It's more like Neil Drysdale vs. the Dutrow family.

@common: Obama does not need to win the racists. Look at the registration numbers. If he turns out democrats and takes a majority of independents he is safe, not to even mention the gains he gets from disaffected republicans (and their unenthusiastic turnout numbers). It does not matter that the GOP is the "last refuge of racists."

While I agree with you that he does not have this election won, I think concern that racism will ruin the day for him is greatly overstated.

@ Matt : I only log on late. My business is real esate related so I have a lot of spare time. This country has a lot of people who do not think they are racist but are. The 98 per cent of voters who are African - American who will vote for Obama are doing so because of a racist agenda. God bless them. They are voting for a man who represents all that white Americans who claim not to be racists would want in an AA. Obama is as Scot-Irish as I am. This election will be close.

Please let me clarify my last post. McCain lost the debate - who cares. The only thing that can save McCain/Palin is white racism. Just ask yourselves - who do you want to run the country - a bright well educated BLACK MAN or a man who got into the Naval Academy because his father was an admiral and managed to graduate in bottom of his class. (Dont believe me - look it up).

@ common sense:
"I was talking to a guy I thought was a sensible person. He is a decent person. As much as I try not to bring up this election - he did. He told me that he would not vote for Obama because he was going to appoint people like Louie Farrakhan (spelling wrong) once he was elected. I asked him if he thought Obama was a Muslim. He said, I don't know. This guy is an attorney and an individual who you would think was openminded. Don't you or anyone else think this is scary? Obama does not have this election won by a longshot. The Republican Party is the last refuge of racists. Most GOPers are not racists but it looks like the campaign is going that way."

While you look at the one person that will hold is vote from Obama due to race, I look at the 90,000 plus Iowians that voted for Obama in the democratic primaries. Are there racism left in the United States? I would not doubt for a moment. Is racism still the driving force that it once was in government and politics? No. Coupled with the financial crisis, I think people are worried enough about the economy enough that they will be willing to vote for anyone that seems to be able to pull us out of this mess regardless of race.

@Ulysses
"As a recent ex-Republican, I was still very disappointed by John McCain, who I once admired... "

While I may not have been an ex-Republican, I do share your deep disappointment in John McCain. I remember telling my brother back in Jan. just after the Iowa primaries that, if it came down to Obama and McCain it would be the most difficult vote to decide on. I do not know exactly what turn you off to McCain, but for me it started with his pandering to the extremist in the Republican party; then there was the Palin VP pick that IMO is irresponsible and a clear pander to the Republican base; then there was his knee jerked reaction to the financial crisis and the bailout bill; now he is trying to suggest that Obama has sympathies for domestic terrorist. Oct. 2007, I would not have believe anyone that tells me that McCain is going to do all of that...

Four weeks out : Republicans are gutless cowards. No response? Just go into that booth and vote against Obama. You should at least respond. No it won't happen. You know you have lost and are fearfull.

I'M scared about the current financial news. I do not think that MCain has a clue.

Big Mike : i guess it's over.

game set and match - Obama. Good Night.

Interesting the CNN survey still shows McCain is more qualified to respond to terrorism. If there is a terrorism incident in America before the election it could get McCain elected. I'm sure McCain would love to see a terrorism event in October.

game over!

OK folks : OSAMA ( NOT OBAMA ) is going to endorse Obama He backed Bush last time. Of course - McCain does not want to go into Pakistan lest he alienate our good friends there. I do not not give a rat's behind about Pakistan's borders. I we have a chance to kill Bin Laden ( if he is still alive - the Egyptian Doctor still is) use our military in a far more lethal manner than in Iraq.McCain is a chicken when it comes to Pakistan - I say ELECT OBAMA/ KILL OSAMA.

Yes, if there is a terrorism attack he would take the cockpit of his plane an crash, again

Mark Blumenthal wrote:
"The numbers I saw broadcast did not include the party identification of the debate viewers** or their pre-debate candidate preference -- statistics that would be critical to evaluating these results."

Right before disclosing the first poll numbers, I heard the CNN announcer say that the poll included 31 % Republicans, as compared to 27 % nationally, and 38 % Democrats.

CNN's poll of the first debate had too many Democrats in it, compared to the electorate at large, but surely the validity of the results - which over a broad front favour Obama - increases when there are more Republicans in the poll than their 'should' be?

By the way: Could anyone seriously expect or predict that McCain wouldn't have a large and significant lead over Obama on leadership and handling of Iraq and terrorism? He's even significantly behind on the leadership-meassure, which is remarkable.

I think that Michelle can very quietly consider new schooling arrangements for the girls,

As is my custom by now, I've analyzed the words used by the speakers in the latest US presidential debate. I provide a bubble graph visualizing length of words, sentences and speech. I also investigated a gut feeling that there was something odd about the distribution of thanks between the different players (bar chart). Finally, improved "word couds" for every speaker (this time including all meaningful words). See and read about it at my Word Face-Off blog.

Listen folks it comes down to this : OBAMA will expunge OSAMA. I can just picture Obama with his hands around Osama's neck. The US AIR FORCE goes into Pakistan and blows up the creeps we should have had a long time ago. Yes - I am a Democrat- I want justice. Not vigilate justice but real justice. The hell with international borders - Pakistan is a joke - go OBAMA - McCain is only following the Bush line. Snuff BIN LADEN. McCain does not appear to have the guts to do a darn thing .

Listen : I want Bin Laden captured. He may be dead already. Kidney failure. They are not going to tell you he's dead. Let's assume he is not dead. Great- then - I want Obama to deal with the situation. Obama would strangle him with his own hands. McCain would still be negotiating with Pakistan.

CNN did report the party ids of their survey respondents.

I can't find it posted anywhere, but working from memory, I believe the reported numbers were

Dem: 38%
Rep: 31%
Ind/Other: 31%

I'm nearly certain that the Rep number was 31%, and there was a approximately a 7% difference.

Cambell Brown also commented at the time that the 31% was about 4% higher than what they customarily strive for in their national surveys.

@ common sense: Your posts are almost entirely off topic. I'm grateful that McCain supporters aren't rising to the bait.

@ Gary: Yeah. I don't think McCain had a clear strategy for this debate, not that I know what it should have been. And Obama is not great at this either. Not to get bogged down in recap. McCain seems to be stuck with an attack strategy that he isn't willing to execute in person, understandably, but I don't see how it can work.

So this seems to have been good for Obama, narrowing the gap on some important issues, but overall not decisive.

I made an interesting Obama/McCain experiment in Body Language and Physicality.

I invited latinos ( non Cubans ) that do not know a single word of English ( friends and relatives ) and subjected them to this Obama/McCain debate.

They are extremely ignorant and do not understand the issues. They do not know who is democrat or republican.

After the debate :

They disliked McCain for moving so much and walking so much. They thought he was disrespectful.

They also reported that McCain look old, tired and unhappy. And that no country should have a president so fatigued and exhausted.

For them the man looked life full of stress, and drained in energy.

Obama for them looked young, energetic, brisk, lively, a Cool and Reposed Gentleman.

Perhaps the only Old Latino Politician is Fidel Castro. So they are biased. They are not accustomed to Old People in Power.

I am completely sure of a Big Latino Landslide in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. 2 to 1 favoring Obama.

Perhaps. I guess that we will witness a less impressive Latino Vote for Obama in Florida but still a win of 55% to 45%.

See more Latino voters and Information of their Economic Pain, Distress and Motivation, and the Latest Latino Polls and Data here :

Milenials

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

TossUpStates :

http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/

Vicente Duque

fascinating that in the CBS poll the person most ready to be president is least trusted to make the right economic decisions.

what's the index of preparation, I wonder?

Obama will not redistribute income - so the person who is concerned about the concentration of wealth in the US is barking up the wrong tree if you think electoral politics can provide a solution.

I personally thought the debate was extremely boring. Also, King's analysis does not convince me that the poll was more evenly distributed than the network's first one, which was 51% Democrat and 27% Republican (something you had to read the entire article to discover). Also, who "won" the debate seems not to impact how the viewers feel concerning who is best prepared for the presidency. McCain wins here clearly.

Finally, the "left field" mortgage proposal was interesting. McCain apparently stole that from Hillary Clinton (as per his own campaign statement). Obama has been less specific on this matter. Here's a good analysis: http://dissentingjustice.blogspot.com/2008/10/out-of-left-field-mccain-wants-feds-to.html

Vicente Duque- In Florida Obama wont get a majority of Cubans but especially the last few years the Puerto Rican population has been growing.
Ricans are coming strait from the island and 2nd and 3rd generation Ricans are moving down from New York to the I-4 corridor.
Obama has a huge lead among Puerto Ricans and they now out number cubans in florida as a whole.
The I-4 corridor (tampa, Orldando, Melbourne)which is key to winning florida is largely in favor of Obama and I suspect is they reason why weve seen polls **** his way here.

Overall Obama and McCain arent very good debaters. I also think the "town hall debate" was a terrible format. Debates are supposed to be engaging and this format forced them to engage with people in the audience rather than eachother.

Reply To Pachete :

Thanks for your Observation on the Puerto Ricans moving to Florida, and outnumbering Cubans.

Florida is extremely difficult to predict for Latino percentages, due to the fact that there are many different varieties of Hispanics with different National Pasts and different Historial Traumas.

Venezuelans and Colombians have arrived in Big Numbers in the last 30 years and unfortunately I am afraid that they come being very conservative and will be easily influenced by the Republican Cubans.

I am not overcome with pessimism and I still think that Latinos will vote for what is best for them in terms of the Economy.

I have a hunch that Obama will win the Latino Vote by a Big Landslide in Florida.

And that we will spend lots of hours in next years studying the Obama Coalition, and important components of it : Youngsters, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, the Highly Educated, Religious Moderates, etc..

http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

Vicente Duque.

LEAKED! Questions that got banned from the town hall "debate"...

"Senator McCain, regarding our hostages in Guantanamo, in your opinion does their experience being tortured by us for the last five years qualify them to be presidents of their respective countries?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuQDTjx-ygM