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DemCorps: US, GA (10/15-19)

Topics: PHome

Democracy Corps (D) /
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National 10/15-19; 1,000 LV, 3%
Obama 49, McCain 44, Nader 2, Barr 2, Paul 0

Georgia 10/16-19; 600 LV, 4%
McCain 46, Obama 44, Barr 2, Nader 2
Sen: Chambliss (R-i) 48, Martin (D) 44

 

Comments
C.S.Strowbridge:

God, I would love to see Chambliss given the boot.

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alankeyesisawesome:

Good to see that McCain is still ahead in Georgia. Evidence that we can still win this race : ).

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Eternal:

2 Points in GA, GA....wow.


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Viperlord:

Wow. Just, wow. I don't expect a Obama win here, but for God's sake, boot Chambliss.

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McSame/Falin:

***Breaking News****

Scooter Libby endorses John McCain

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PortlandRocks:

Yawn. Is it 6PM EST yet?:) Ras #'s out then!

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Rollin08:

G'luck guys... Even if McCain wins he's still pretty liberal, environmental, etc.. : )

I want Obama though, that would send a really strong message. and I think he's better.

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Babbit:

@alankeyesisawesome...

I'm surprised to see (after being away for several days) that you have kept up the 'McCain is winning' joke this long. You are one dedicated comedian. ;)

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Commander_King:

We may have a shot at Georgia...Obama and Martin

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Well, this definitely seems like an outlier, especially with Obama doing better than Martin.

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Hope Reborn:

This is a definite trend.

First, Virginia is 54-44 via Ras.

Then N.C. is 51-44 via PPP

Now GA is 46-44

McCain is in a death spiral on the east coast... and where is he today? Missouri? wow.

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DecaturMark:

I'm in GA and we need to boot Chambliss. He is running another sleazy ad campaign. It has been good to see that the Senate Dems are putting money into this race. There is a Libertarian in this race as well and could siphon off enough Rep votes for Martin to pull it out.

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Commander_King:

@DecaturMark

Obama has also decided to start putting resources in Georgia.

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UpstateProgressive:

GA seems to come down to turnout. If the AA turnout is strong, both Obama and Martin could win. And early voting for the Dems has been awesome.

Again, in a race as close as this, it's all turnout.

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shirefox:

@Babbit

But AlanKeyes is coming around to reality. Note his smiley above.

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NorthernObserver:


wow, just saw a piece on cnn -- the muslims haven't infiltrated the Dems, they've taken over the Reps. In the clip a bunch of Muslim McCain supporters chase off a couple of evangelical Christians!!!

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orange24:

Great day of polling so far! Boy the Ras polls at 6 today could really make this the best Obama day yet - or it could bring us back to earth. We'll see...

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wotan:

@rollin08:
I wouldn't call someone who is anti-choice, for making the Bush tax cuts permanent, for staying in Iraq with no timetable (even as one is being negotiated), against correcting the Supreme Court decision on the Equal Pay Act statute of limitations and who would appoint more SC justices like John Roberts and Sam Alito to be "pretty liberal". Maybe in comparison with James Inhofe, but what standard are you using?

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original_goodfella:

It's great that Obama is putting resources in GA, but I sure wish he'd stay out of there himself. I get nervous every time he goes to a state filled with "good ol' boys."

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rdw4potus:

Saxby Chambliss is some kind of un-American prick. Maybe Michelle Bachmann and/or Sarah Palin should escort him out of office...

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DecaturMark:

@Commander_King:

That's great news. If they can't call GA for McCain 10 minutes after the polls close, then he will have a long night. Georgia has one of the hightest approval ratings for Bush. I don't know why, but it does.

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Nekrotzar:

I think this 'alankeyesisawesome' character is the best thing Colbert has done since the Republican convention.

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Viperlord:

Deep South I guess. I don't expect a GA win, it's not needed. CO alone can deliver the election, then you have the likely bonuses of VA, FL, NV, NC, and possibly OH and MO.

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K Johnson:

Two weeks are enough for Obama to take over Georgia. McCain has not been there for months. Atlanta and its huge suburbs would do it. Just wait, we got the money and the people too.

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Viperlord:

I want to see some more polling of IN, and I haven't seen a NV poll in a while.

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Rollin08:

@wotan

yeah you're right.. :( I was just thinking about that some more too.

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1magine:

With 14 days left BO has got to let GA alone. NH, CO, VA, NV, FL, NC, OH & MO. In that order. Ensure that the road to 273 is in double digits on Nov. 4th and maintain high singles in VA, NV, FL and try to hold on in NC, OH and MO to push the Mandate from the people meme. Sydney will not be goaded into expending resources there - he doesn't have any to begin with, and if he has to defend there he will lose the other states. Sydney has woken up and him and Caribou Barbi are spending the last 14 days living in PA, NH, OH, CO, VA, FL and NC. I think PA is lost to him - but he knows that w/o PA, he must run the table of CO, VA, OH, FL, NC, and NV. A loss in any of the current battlegrounds - where they are currently behind by 5-10 points is a death knell.

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Aaron Gould Sheinin:

Hey, Eric, the link to the Georgia data appears to be dead. Any chance you've got a correct one?

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david j. cutler:

One might be slightly skeptical of the likely voter model in the Georgia sample. In 2004, Bush won GA 58% to 41%. In this survey, the respondents claim to have voted for Bush 54% to 39%. Thus, in this population Bush did about 4% worse than he did in the state overall. Now, that might reflect a "correct" assessment of who is likely to vote this time around, or it might just be a slight bias in this population. However, in my mind, the most cogent thing to say is that in this Georgia population, Obama is running about 4 points better than Kerry did, and McCain is running about 8 points worse than Bush did.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

At this rate Obama will be campaigning in Alabama and Idaho on election day.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Realistically though any state south of VA is a bonus. Obama just needs to saturate VA and CO and he's got this.

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Viperlord:

Political quiz. http://www.electoralcompass.com/ Knock yourselves out. I'm a social progressive, and economically, I'm middle of the road. Candidate I agree most with is Richardson.

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jamesia:

Well, Atlanta makes up a huge percentage of the state population, and it's also 62% AA. If we say that Obama will win 90% or so of the AA vote... and there's about a 60-70% AA turnout... that's a huge chunk of what Obama needs to carry GA.

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muckinello:

@1magine and Jordan:
I agree with you both: VA and CO are the two main ones. I think that the electorate there is much different from '04 but would not bet the same has happened across the BG states.
I am still working here in PA: I don't trust that we are up by 12. Never be complacent!

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Iowa City:

@ Jordan

Yes, GA is just a bonus. But with $150M+ to spend, he might as well go after it.

At this point, if VA and FL are called at 7pm and GA is called shortly thereafter, we could crown Obama 44 before the kids go to bed!

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jonny87:

can everyone access the dem corps polls?

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burrito:

Using the alankeyesisawesome, boomshak, etal's "logic" :

This is great news for Obama!! Obama AHEAD in Georgia!!

Given that the MOE is +/- 4, what this pollster really meant to say is that Obama is 48 and McCain is 42 in Georgia!! I have reached this correct assumption by subtracting the MOE from the person that leads and adding to the person that lags ... in accordance to the "boomshak/alankeyesisawesome law" of poll interpretation ...

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Iowa City

That is what I was thinking. If GA fall from the red fold then this looks like Murphy's Rules for Dating. (Go Ugly Early)

I may not even be awake to see ID or WY turn red.

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BOOMFAIL:

GO BLUE!
Come on Georgia, you know you want to do it!

2 point difference in this state is Stunning!

On a side note: in the NC early voting listed on the right hand tab on Pollster, internals are awesome: "Of 270,000 in-person voters since "One Stop" opened last Thursday, over 60% were registered Democrats, compared to only 20% Republicans. (The remainder: mostly unaffiliated voters, who make up about 20% of the state's electorate.)"

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BOOMFAIL:

@burrito

Exactly!! Great analysis!

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Dana Adini:

I think this poll is a bit of an outlier. However the fact that Obama is close here where Kerry lost by 17 points means that we are heading for an electoral landslide.

chance to pick up a senate seat and send one of the real BAD guys in the Senate back home

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CTPonix4BHObama:

Martin sure is nippin at Chambliss's heels...It would be great to see Chabliss thrown out on his ass after what he did to Max Cleland

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jlm9:

Heres an interesting thought - Chambliss senate seat must be target #60 for the Dems. If the race doesn't tighten signifcantly in the swing states and GA is really 2% difference would the DNC ask Obama to campaign in GA the last week of the campaign under the auspices that he can win GA in order for Martin to coat-tail?

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Rollin08:

Just put in my vote for Obama.

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jeepdad:

Has ABC released the head-to-head numbers on their national poll yet? Seems like they have a lot of data out, but not the big number.

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Traynor84:

I live in GA, in north Fulton County (the County Atlanta is in)... and I can tell you that I doubt Obama will be within two on election day. I'll keep working for Obama, but honestly, GA is very, very red.

But Jim Martin should be a little closer to Saxby then that... and most other polls have had him closer. If we get record Dem turnout in GA (like we had in our primary for Obama) then these polls might all not matter... Martin could win on Obama's coattails in Atlanta and Savannah... and will get some of the older Democrats in the state as well... the youth vote isn't as progressive here as in much of the country though. Just keep working, keep donating, and we'll keep phone banking and canvassing!

^^

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deeznutsrepubs:

C'mon Georgia....YOU CAN DO IT!!!


You can do it all night long!!!

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boomshak:

Wow, another national poll with Obama ahead by 5. I guess all these pollsters are looking for cover from each other.

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boomshak:

Wow, another national poll with Obama ahead by 5. I guess all these pollsters are looking for cover from each other.

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Glasbak:

@BOOMFAIL:
"On a side note: in the NC early voting listed on the right hand tab on Pollster, internals are awesome: "Of 270,000 in-person voters since "One Stop" opened last Thursday, over 60% were registered Democrats, compared to only 20% Republicans. (The remainder: mostly unaffiliated voters, who make up about 20% of the state's electorate.)"

But who says all these Democrats are voting for Obama?

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jlm9:

Traynor you live very close to me. I am not sure how much vote the Rep. can actually get out in North Fulton County, but I wouldn't be surprised if Gwinnett moves a little closer. If you have strong turn out in Atlanta and South Fulton. You also need to see that the two tight House elections are in the Macon district and the Savnnah/Augusta area. If Marshall and Barrow can get out their vote in those cities and enough Rep. stay at home it may turn. I'm not sure Alpharetta voters will line up for 4 hours behind their house service.

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jlm9:

Traynor you live very close to me. I am not sure how much vote the Rep. can actually get out in North Fulton County, but I wouldn't be surprised if Gwinnett moves a little closer to the Dems. Chambliss is running a really nasty campaign (again) and his bailout support hurts the base. You also need to see that the two tight House elections are in the Macon district and the Savnnah/Augusta area. They are also Dem. incumbents. If Marshall and Barrow can get out their vote in those cities and enough Rep. stay at home it may turn blue. I'm also not sure Alpharetta voters will line up for 4 hours behind their house staff, but I am sure they will in Atlanta and South Fulton. Their is still hope yet. And at least we won't be called at 7pm when the polls closed.

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jlm9:

Also looking at this poll unless I am mistaken Nader isn't on any counties sample ballots in GA!!! I don't see him getting 2% write-in

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cinnamonape:

Sweet Georgia BLUE!

I'm thinking that if these numbers are even somewhat close to what it currently is...and the early voting samples appearing to lean heavily towards Democrats. Well I can dream!

Now what Obama may want to do here is simply pump money into Martin's race and the Democratic HR races who are close...and then GOTV.

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cinnamonape:

Sweet Georgia BLUE!

I'm thinking that if these numbers are even somewhat close to what it currently is...and the early voting samples appearing to lean heavily towards Democrats. Well I can dream!

Now what Obama may want to do here is simply pump money into Martin's race and the Democratic HR races who are close...and then GOTV.

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thisniss:

Not shocking. VA & NC are solid Obama, GA is borderline.

I want SC polling from someone other than SUSA or R2K, both of which have bad records for polling in the South. Rasmussen would be fine (I'll just add 3 to their total). PPP would be better. But someone, please give me an SC poll. I don't think it's likely to turn blue, but I still think it could be the surprise of the season. (I know, I know, everyone is looking at WV - and that could happen, too. But SC is my "landslide launcher" pick.)

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Actually, if Barack Obama and Joe Biden win Virginia and Iowa they will have 272 electoral votes and enough to win the election. But we can not be complacent. Remember the 2000 election when our Supreme Court elected the Republicans in a 5 to 4 vote? Let's make sure that does not happen again. Tell your friends and family to get out and vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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