Mark Blumenthal | April 23, 2009
Topics: AAPOR , Disclosure , Iowa , New Hampshire , Strategic Vision
Here is an update on Strategic Vision, one of the three polling firms that never responded to repeated requests for information by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) investigation of the problems with primary election polling in New Hampshire and elsewhere in 2008. Jim Galloway of the Atlanta Journal Constitution contacted Strategic Vision's CEO David Johnson about a new Georgia poll they released yesterday and asked him to comment on his firm's lack of cooperation with the AAPOR committee:
Johnson, the CEO of Strategic Vision, said he received a single request from the organization. "I got the request for this two days before the report was released," he said. "And I've got the e-mails to prove it." Johnson said the AAPOR says it sent a request by certified mail, but he never received it.
I forwarded Johnson's comments to Nancy Mathiowetz, the former AAPOR president who oversaw the task of requesting information from the 21 polling organizations that released surveys in the four states studied by the AAPOR committee. She replied with two Federal Express receipts showing that documents were sent to Johnson at the Atlanta "headquarters" address listed on the Strategic Vision web site, one on March 5, 2008 and the second on October 1, 2008 -- a full year and six months, respectively, before the release of the AAPOR report.
(Click here for the PDF of both receipts)
While we cannot know what happens to once a document arrives at an organization, the Fed Ex receipts confirm that the AAPOR documents were received and signed for on both occasions.
Regardless of when they first learned of the requests, nothing prevents Strategic Vision from disclosing the requested information right now. The AAPOR report indicates that their investigators were unable to obtain Strategic Vision's response rate, their method of selecting a respondent in each sampled household, a description of their weighting procedures and information about their sampling frame or the method or questions used to identify likely voters -- all information that, according to AAPOR's code of ethics, a pollster should always disclose with a public poll report. Johnson could share this information with all of us right now if he wanted to.
And as for the raw data for all individuals contacted and interviewed -- as well as all of the other information requested -- the AAPOR report makes clear that it is not too late. The committee has deposited all of the information they received in the Roper Center Data Archive where, according to the report, "it will be available to other analysts who wish to check on the work of the committee or to pursue their own independent analysis of the pre-primary polls in the 2008 campaign." Moreover, "If additional information is received after the report's release, the database at the Roper Center will be updated."
Johnson's response to the AJC may sound familiar. Long time readers will remember that I made my own requests of pollsters that had fielded surveys in Iowa during 2007. Strategic Vision was one of five organizations that never answered any of my questions. Unlike AAPOR, I relied on email since I lacked the budget to send requests via Federal express. Thanks to my Gmail archive, I can report the following:
I sent an initial request by email to David Johnson on September 27, 2007 and heard nothing back.
I followed up with a reminder on October 17, 2007 that produced the following response (from the same email address for David Johnson I had used for the original request):
I did not receive this email of 9/27. I am not sure why unless it has to do with our hosting company or server. I will be glad to get you responses and as things would have it, will be releasing an Iowa poll tomorrow
Two days later, having heard nothing further, I sent Johnson another reminder and received this response:
I am working on your responses now. I was slammed the past two days with deadlines.
It was certainly a busy time, so I waited another eleven days before reporting on the degree of cooperation I received from the Iowa pollsters and six weeks more before posting an analysis of of the information I had received. Unfortunately, I never heard anything more from David Johnson.
This sort of episode makes it clear that we are naive to expect all pollsters to provide disclosure of meaningful methodological information even "on request" even to organizations like AAPOR. Last Friday, I attended a conference on survey quality at Harvard University, where UNC professor Phil Meyer said that our best hope is a "real accountability system" based on public pressure, "a more efficient market on the demand side." He is absolutely right.
Update: A belated hat-tip to reader EC for the tip on Galloway's AJC item.