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Exclusive: New Cook/RT Strategies Poll Results

Topics: 2008 , The 2008 Race

Here is something of an exclusive (for the moment - and we'll spare you the flashing red light): Our friends at the Cook Political Report have shared advanced results of the latest Cook/RT Strategies survey on 2008 presidential primary preference (conducted over the last three days, April 27-30, among 1,000 adults nationwide).

Their results for Democrats show a tightening national race in the last month. Among 389 registered voters that identify with or lean to the Democrats, the survey shows Clinton leading with 32%, followed by Obama at 24%, Edwards at 15%, Gore at 11% and all other candidates in the low single digits. Without Gore in the race, they show Clinton leading Obama by ten points (36% to 26%) trailed by Edwards at 18%.

On the previous survey (of 355 Democrats) in late March - which did not include Al Gore as a potential candidate - they showed Clinton with a 24 point lead over Obama (41% to 17%), who ran two points behind Edwards (at 19%). The nine-point increase in Obama's vote over the last month on this survey (from 17% to 26%) is statistically significant despite the small sample sizes, although the five point decline for Clinton (from 41% to 36%) is not.

For those watching, four national surveys (NBC/Wall Street Journal, USA Today/Gallup, CNN and Rasmussen) have shown a similar narrowing, while four others (ABC/Washington Post, the Pew Research Center, CBS News and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics) have not.

The survey also indicates a possible tightening of the Republican contest. Among 319 registered voters that identify with or lean to the Republicans, Rudy Giuliani now leads by seven points (28% to 21%), followed by Mitt Romney (11%), Fred Thompson (10%), Newt Gingrich (6%) and all others at 2% or less.

That result represents a drop in Guiliani's lead over McCain from 17 points (34% to 17%) a month ago (among 290 Republicans), a decline that looks right on the edge of statistical significance given the relatively small sample sizes.

Watch for Charlie Cook's upcoming column on NationalJournal.com and CookPolitical.com for more details.

 

Comments
Chris:

Way to go Obama, eventhough its too early for polls to matter.

____________________

Mike C.:

Hillary & Obama = Politics As Usual.

Mike Gravel is in it to win it! Go Gravel, Go!

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