Mark Blumenthal | April 30, 2007
Topics: 2008 , The 2008 Race
Here is something of an exclusive (for the moment - and we'll spare you the flashing red light): Our friends at the Cook Political Report have shared advanced results of the latest Cook/RT Strategies survey on 2008 presidential primary preference (conducted over the last three days, April 27-30, among 1,000 adults nationwide).
Their results for Democrats show a tightening national race in the last month. Among 389 registered voters that identify with or lean to the Democrats, the survey shows Clinton leading with 32%, followed by Obama at 24%, Edwards at 15%, Gore at 11% and all other candidates in the low single digits. Without Gore in the race, they show Clinton leading Obama by ten points (36% to 26%) trailed by Edwards at 18%.
On the previous survey (of 355 Democrats) in late March - which did not include Al Gore as a potential candidate - they showed Clinton with a 24 point lead over Obama (41% to 17%), who ran two points behind Edwards (at 19%). The nine-point increase in Obama's vote over the last month on this survey (from 17% to 26%) is statistically significant despite the small sample sizes, although the five point decline for Clinton (from 41% to 36%) is not.
For those watching, four national surveys (NBC/Wall Street Journal, USA Today/Gallup, CNN and Rasmussen) have shown a similar narrowing, while four others (ABC/Washington Post, the Pew Research Center, CBS News and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics) have not.
The survey also indicates a possible tightening of the Republican contest. Among 319 registered voters that identify with or lean to the Republicans, Rudy Giuliani now leads by seven points (28% to 21%), followed by Mitt Romney (11%), Fred Thompson (10%), Newt Gingrich (6%) and all others at 2% or less.
That result represents a drop in Guiliani's lead over McCain
from 17 points (34% to 17%) a month ago (among 290 Republicans), a decline that
looks right on the edge of statistical significance given the relatively
small sample sizes.