Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

February 5 Update

Topics: 2008 , Exit Polls , Mason-Dixon , National Journal , Pollster.com , The 2008 Race , Trend lines

For those who may have missed it (I tucked a mini-announcement in last night's exit poll thread), we are now reporting poll results for twelve thirteen of the February 5 primary states, and will be adding another half dozen or so in the next 24 hours for which only a handful of polls are currently available. The links below also appear in the right column throughout Pollster.com:

AL Dem, Rep
AZ Dem, Rep
CA Dem, Rep
CO Dem, Rep
CT Dem, Rep
GA Dem, Rep
IL Dem, Rep
MA Dem, Rep
MO Dem, Rep
NJ Dem, Rep
NY Dem, Rep
OK Dem, Rep
TN Dem, Rep

Needless to say, we will be hard at work updating these pages as new polls become available over the next week. If you know of a poll in the public domain, or if you spot a typographical error that we have missed in our haste to get these data posted, please email us (at questions at pollster dot com).

One important note: We only plot our regression trend lines on the charts when eight or more polls are available. When you do not see trend lines plotted, the estimate for each candidate that appears in the chart legend is the median result among all available polls.

In several cases, that median result is probably a less accurate estimate of the current state of the race than the most recent poll released. Consider Colorado. The median result shows Clinton leading by eleven points (34% to 23%), but four of the five polls were conducted more than four months ago. The most recent Denver Post/Mason Dixon survey, however, shows a close race, with 34% for Obama and 32% for Clinton.

So in looking at polls for February 5, if our trend estimate does not plot, we recommend focusing more on the most recent polls conducted in January 2008 than the median value we report in the chart legend.

Readers have also inquired about sites that tally delegate counts and provide more information about the number of delegates up for grabs in each February 5 state and the rules for their allotment. Tracking that information is well beyond the scope of Pollster.com, but we are happy to recommend two excellent resources put up by our partners:

  • The National Journal has a unique Campaign Tracker page that lists all of the February 5 states and provides the number of delegates at stake, the type of election (primary or caucus), the rules for participation (open or closed) and the all important rules of delegate allotment. The page is free to non-subscribers.
  • Slate's Election Scorecard (which plots our trend estimates and includes daily analysis by Slate's Chadwick Matlin) also features a running tally of delegate totals won by each candidate.

We know that many other news organizations are tracking delegates, but we would appreciate your support for our partners at the National Journal and Slate.

 

Comments
Todd:

Small thing but Colorado is a caucus and not a primary.

____________________

ImHereIncognito:

Where are the rest of the February 5th states?!? I assume you do not have an "Agenda".... but it will tend to bias Voters if they only see a limited list of states. There appears to be ample room to put all of them on the front page. It must be coincidence that the ones we KNOW are Romney's are not listed here.

____________________

On the missing states:

We've included everything we have polling data on. A number of states have no polls. One hopes that changes in the next day or two.

If you know of polls in states that we are missing by all means send us a note to questions at pollster dot com

Our goal is to post every poll. If it is missing either there are no polls or we missed it. Can't do much about the first, but we'll certainly fix the latter if you let us know.

One of the curious effects of super Tuesday's very large number of states is the paradox that there is MUCH LESS polling per state for the most important date of the primary season than we've had in the previous states. There are obvious economic reasons for that, but it means our information is much more limited than we would wish.

Charles

____________________

Mark Blumenthal:

Just one clarification to Charles' comment: We have been putting up new tables and charts as they are ready over the last 24 hours. There are still four or five more states for which we have located one or two polls, most quite dated. We will be adding those tomorrow.

____________________

Emcee:

Your sidebar says "2/5 States" and then lists 13 states. That is STATISTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE!

____________________

nate:

Emcee: No, the margin error is pretty big: 13 falles within (2/5)+/- 15.

____________________

Dan:

Emcee: I don't understand what you mean. 2/5 states simply means February 5th states doesn't it? And at the time of your comment they only had 13 states up. I don't understand your comment.

____________________

Tagg:

"It must be coincidence that the ones we KNOW are Romney's are not listed here."

Uh...you Rombots are starting to sound scarily similar to Ron Paul supporters...

____________________

RS:

Mark et al.:

Just to commend you on the excellent graphics for the 2/5 primaries/caucuses (caucii?!)

I was hooked on Slate and the Election Scorecard there, and now I am on The Source ;-)

RS

____________________

leaders:

Hi to all good fighters.

I'm looking for some nice statistical breakdown of the DELEGATE CONTEST. Anyone have a link? e.g., NY is winner take-all -- with all these factors poured in, where do we stand?

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR